Scott Lucas on Press TV: Will Israel Attack Iran?

Together with former CIA operative Robert Baer and University of Wisconsin professor Jennifer Loewenstein, I appeared on Middle East Today on Press TV on Thursday to discuss the possibility of Israeli military action against Tehran. I was the most sceptical of the panellists about that possibility: the Israeli threat, in my opinion, is best seen as a political manoeuvre to get Washington to break off engagement with Iran (and to stall on any negotiations over a Palestinian state), a point I also tried to make in The Guardian on Thursday.

Analysis: Iran Jails Journalist Saberi for 8 Years on Espionage Charges

Latest Post: Roxana Saberi Update - Positive Signs Despite a Hopeless TV Interview
Related Post: The Dangers of the Roxana Saberi Espionage Trial

Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi has been convicted on charges of espionage and jailed for eight years by an Iranian Revolutionary Court.

Ms Saberi's lawyer Abdolsamad Khorramshahi and her father confirmed that the sentence would be appealed. The sentence was confirmed inside Iran by the Iranian Students News Agency, and there is a short item on the English-language website of Press TV.

The quick sentencing surprises me, as a judiciary spokesman indicated on Tuesday that it would be two to three weeks before the verdict was announced. It could be that judicial forces wanted to show "independence" from political pressure (ironic given that this is a politicised case) and moved quickly.

Alternatively, Iranian political elements --- reacting to perceived US pressure or raising the stakes, both in internal Iranian political manoeuvring and in US-Iranian relations --- pushed for a lengthy jail sentence.

No evidence was presented publicly to support Saberi's conviction. Thus it remains unclear why her initial crime --- the purchase of a bottle of wine --- escalted into charges of reporting without a license (especially as she had been filing stories over the last two years without that license) and then spying.

The reaction of the US Government should be watched very carefully. My suspicion is that American officials have been trying behind the scenes to strike a deal for Saberi's release (probably after conviction and deportation).

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's response reinforces that suspicion, as she maintained the measured tone that she was "deeply disappointed". Her statement was limited to the case rather than the wider significance for US-Iranian relations: "We are working closely with the Swiss Protecting Presence to obtain details about the court's decision, and to ensure her well-being....[We will] continue to vigorously raise our concerns to the Iranian government."

So far, Washington has not publicly linked the Saberi case to its "engagement" with Tehran, apart from the letter handed to the Iranians at the end of March. Does the Obama Administration continue with this strategy or does it threaten a suspension of engagement because of today's news?

Espionage Trial of Iranian-American Journalist Begins in Tehran

UPDATE (14 April): The Iranian judiciary has announced that Roxana Saberi's trial has opened. Spokesman Alireza Jamshidi told a news conference, "The first trial meeting on Roxana Saberi was held yesterday ... I think the verdict will be announced soon, perhaps in the next two or three weeks."

Jamshidi added that US allegations about the fairness of the trial are “ridiculous and against international laws”.

The lawyer for Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi has confirmed that she has been charged with espionage.

Saberi, who has reported from Iran for a number of Western media outlets including US National Public Radio, Fox News, and the BBC, was initially detained in January for purchasing a bottle of wine. Tehran then escalated the charges to reporting without a license.

Saberi's parents were finally allowed to visit her this week, after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had raised her case in a letter presented to Iranian representatives at The Hague conference on Afghanistan, but Saberi was then taken before the Revolutionary Court. The deputy head of the prosecutor's office has claimed, "[Saberi] had been carrying out espionage activities ... under the cover of a journalist ... and she has accepted the accusations." The crime of espionage can be punished by the death penalty in Iran.

According to Iran's Press TV website, the deputy prosecutor has said Saberi's American citizenship would not affect the legal proceedings because Tehran does not recognize dual nationality.