Are Americans Turning Socialist?

In a survey of 1000 American citizens by Rasmussen Reports last week, 53 percent of American adults expressed confidence in capitalism, 20 percent voted for socialism, and the rest remained unsure.

Breaking down the results offers more interesting findings. Firstly, there is a significant generational split in the polling, however. For those under 30, the results are almost even: 33 percent favour socialism vs. 37 percent for capitalism.  In contrast, amongst those over 40, the margin is 40 to 13 percent in favour of capitalism.

Those Americans who grew up during the Cold War are more likely to maintain the perception of the ‘victorious’ free-market system despite recession, while the younger generation, many of whom have suffered in the recent global financial crisis, is not as happy with the idea of the capitalist system.

Secondly, by a 5 to 1 margin, investors preferred capitalism; for non-investors, the preference was only 40 to 25 percent. This also tells us that although investors have been hit badly by the recent recession, it is still the maximization of profit as the main stimulus behind their way of thinking.

Thirdly, Republicans favor capitalism by an 11 to 1 margin, but 39 percent of Democrats prefer capitalism and 30 percent side with socialism. While it would be easy to read this as an ideological division between the two groups, the better explanation is that each party is taking a political position in the face of a deep economic crisis. Republicans will frame themselves through a concern with the survival of American values whereas many Democrats are searching for a consensus on how to deal with recession and restore prosperity.

And thus the immediate paradox of "socialism", not as an economic system but as a rhetorical weapon. In the near future, the word is  most likely to be used and manipulated --- rather than considered with any thought and depth --- by a Republican opposition party as ‘the attack on financial crisis’ inevitably will brings more State involvement with the "private" sector.

That same intervention, however, will bring together various approaches in the relatively broad-based Democratic Party. It is unlikely, of course, that "mainstream" Democratic leaders will use the word "socialism", even though some of those economic, financial, and social approaches will have to move away from a mythical "laissez faire" capitalism in which the State has no significant place.

Yet, even as this verbal shadow dance over "socialism" continues, could Americans begin to consider the idea of a socialist system seriously? It is striking that the latest Rasmussen results show a signficant shift from a poll in December in which 70 percent of respondents preferred capitalism and only 15 percent socialism. The extent to which the Obama Administration is perceived as ‘successful’ in halting the recession through a well-designed stimulus plan could re-shape beliefs.

Could American youth, two-thirds of whom do not embrace " capitalism", lead that change?