Middle East Analysis: Cairo's Nuclear Move, Syria's Reaction

At last week's Obama-led summit on nuclear security, amidst speculation that many Arab and Muslim states would launch an ambush upon Israel's nuclear weapons, the deputy prime minister Dan Meridor summed up the conference: "Thus far, there has been no ambush."

On the same day, President Obama called on Israel to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty as he called on other states, such as India, North Korea, and Pakistan, to join:

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Whether we're talking about Israel or any other country, we think that becoming part of the NPT is important. And that, by the way, is not a new position. That's been a consistent position of the United States government, even prior to my administration.

Haaretz subsequently quoted Western envoys reporting that Israel may come under new pressure next month at a UN meeting on atomic weapons, with the US, Britain and France considering support for Egypt's call for a zone in the Middle East free of nuclear arms. In a working paper that reportedly Egypt submitted to fellow treaty members, Cairo said the conference should formally express regret that "no progress has taken place on the implementation of the (1995) resolution" that backed the idea of "a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons as well as other weapons of mass destruction" and should call for an international treaty conference by 2011.

Although Israel's UN mission had no official comment on the Egyptian proposal, an Israeli diplomat told Reuters the Jewish state will be ready to discuss issues such as a nuclear-weapon-free zone once there is peace in the Middle East. One Western official said:

They [the Israelis] have an interest here. If the Arabs get something they want on Israel, they'll be more supportive on Iran's nuclear program and further sanctions. Israel would benefit from that.

So for Egypt, the nuclear move is a "win-win" situation. It can increase its stock through giving the image of "driving Israel to the corner" and by leading an international gathering through which new and stronger pressure can be put on Tehran.

However, to establish this leading role in the Arab world, Cairo needs the support of a very significant country:  Syria, which is the "closest" ally of Iran and the greatest conventionally-armed "threat" to Israel. With Saudi Arabia breaking the ice with Damascus, Syrian President Bashar Assad was due Tuesday night to land in Egypt.

What is Syria seeking from this "alliance"? Damascus would gain from Egyptian support to counter Israel's allegations that Syria transferred Scud missiles to Lebanon's Hezbollah. Secondly, Cairo, in its "big brother" role mediating Palestinian affairs, could increase Syria's influence in the Gaza Strip.

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Washington Has No Plan?: On Friday, responding to reports that Washington is preparing a new peace plan based on decisions reached in Israel-Palestine discussions 10 years ago, National Security Advisor James Jones stated that the Obama Administration has no new proposal but is discussing ways how to jump-start the peace process in the region.

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US-Israeli Ties: Playing down the cancellation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attendance at next week's nuclear security summit in Washington, Jones said Israel's delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, would be "robust". Jones added that relationships between the U.S. and Israel are "ongoing, fine and continuous."


NSC spokesman Mike Hammer declared, "We welcome Deputy Prime Minister Meridor's participation in the conference. Israel is a close ally and we look forward to continuing to work closely on issues related to nuclear security."

Jordan's King to Washington: On Saturday, King Abdullah II of Jordan visited  President Obama to discuss the deadlock in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Israel: Netyanahu "I'm Staying Away from US Nuke Summit"

Looks like the head of at least one nuclear power will not be attending President Obama's high-profile summit in Washington pursuing nuclear security. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled his trip to the US, reportedly because Egypt and Turkey were going to raise the issue of Israel's nuclear stockpile.

West Jerusalem has never officially admitted that it has atomic weaponry, but former US President Jimmy Carter reveals that the Israelis had 150 devices.

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An Israeli official said:

In the last 24 hours, the Israeli government has learned of various reports from various sources on the intention of several states attending the conference not only to deal with the issue at hand, but to take the opportunity to make a point of grand-standing against Israel and the issue of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The prime minister was dismayed at this, and decided to stick to the Israeli policy that Israel is usually represented at these types of conferences at the professional-ministerial level.

Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor will head the Israeli delegation attending the summit.