Israel-Palestine Analysis: Welcoming a 3rd Intifada?

Is a Third Intifada On Way?: Haaretz's Zvi Bar'el considers the possibility of a third Intifada. He states that there is no one on the "other" side to take reins of such an uprising, since the Palestinian Authority is looking forward to "progress" from the Obama Administration and Hamas is locked inside the Gaza Strip, yet he says that an uprising cannot be predicted in advance and may surprise everyone.

Middle East Inside Line: Washington Reverses on Settlements?; US & Ahmadinejad on Gaza

Bar'el then makes a critical point, "An outbreak of violence will certainly do wonders for Israeli interests". He continues:

There's nothing like a murderous terror attack to give Israel back its image of being the victim; it would give us an excellent excuse to stop the fake freeze on settlement construction and show Barack Obama who the real culprit is. Enough with playing games, bring it on. Save us with an intifada.

Is the international community ready for those Israeli pretexts to shelve any talks or negotiations with Palestinians? If Israeli's politicians believe so, is their optimal course to sustain tension with Palestinian "radicals"?

Meanwhile, that tension played out in a statement by Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal that all options against Israel remain open, including war: "We will do everything to obtain the rights stolen from us, including confrontation with the enemy."

Israel's Army Radio reports that Hamas also called for Palestinian Authority President Salam Fayyad to be put on trial for comments  in an interview with Haaretzr. Fayyad had stated that, by 2011, there would be a Palestinian state by which refugees would be absorbed. Hamas officials responded:

Fayyad is a person without legitimacy, who has stolen control in the West Bank and whose hands are contaminated with the suffering of thousands of martyrs in the West Bank.

And on another front,  a report submitted to French President Nicholas Sarkozy by his two top diplomats supposedly gives no chance to renewed peace talks between Israel and Syria.

Patrice Paoli, director of the North Africa and Middle East desk at the French Foreign Ministry, and Nicolas Gallas, a special adviser to Sarkozy on Middle East affairs, had been in Israel and talked to top officials. Their report concludes that Israel is not ready to fully withdraw from the Golan Heights, while Syria is not prepared to cut ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

Middle East Inside Line: Washington Reverses on Settlements?; US & Ahmadinejad on Gaza

Washington Calms Down US Jewish Community, Reverses Position on Settlements?: On Friday, the top National Security Council official for the Middle East, Dan Shapiro issued a message to U.S. Jewish community leaders: Barack Obama is a friend of Israel and there is no disagreement between Israel and the US.

Shapiro called recent tension a result of "bad timing" and said that the US did not intend to insist that Israel halt settlement construction in East Jerusalem. He said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent meeting with Obama in Washington was open and honest, during which they reached agreements on the building in East Jerusalem, negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, and Iran's nuclear program.

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Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel’s Hebron Show

Response to Gaza Tension: The US State Department released a statement Friday night that there is no “military solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Spokesman P.J. Crowley said:

The Israelis have a right to self-defense. At the same, as we've said many times, we don't ultimately think there is a military solution to this.

Our message remains to the Israelis and Palestinians that we need to get the proximity talks going, focus on the substance, move to direct negotiations and ultimately arrive at a settlement that ends the conflict once and for all.

We are always concerned that steps taken by either side, legitimate or otherwise, can be misconstrued, can be twisted and end up causing turbulence that can be an impediment to progress.

Iran's Ahmadinejad Warns Israel: On Saturday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Israel and world leaders that attacks on Gaza would cost "too much":

One more time I warn the leaders of arrogant powers and the supporters of Zionist regime to not make a new mistake in the Middle East -- attacking Gaza will cost you too much.

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel's Hebron Show

Gazan-Israeli Tension Continues: The exchange of rockets between Gaza and Israel continues. In response to a Palestinian short-range rocket fired across the border on Thursday, Israel Air Force launched seven rockets on Friday, killing no one but wounding two children and destroying two caravans, a cheese factory, and a metal foundry. An Israel Defense Forces spokesman confirmed the attacks, saying they had targeted two weapons-manufacturing plants and two arms caches.

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On Thursday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on the international community to intervene to avoid escalation.

Militants in the strip responded to Friday's Israeli attack by firing a Qassam rocket into southern Israel.


Palestinian State around 2011? In an exclusive interview with Haaretz, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad stated that "the birth of a Palestinian state will be celebrated as a day of joy by the entire community of nations":

The time for this baby to be born will come and we estimate it will come around 2011. That is our vision, and a reflection of our will to exercise our right to live in freedom and dignity in the country [where] we are born, alongside the State of Israel in complete harmony.

If for one reason or another, by August 2011 [the plan] will have failed... I believe we will have amassed such credit, in form of positive facts on the ground, that the reality is bound to force itself on the political process to produce the outcome.

It is the right of an oppressed nation to say 'enough.' No one should be expected to stand for injustice, not least the Palestinians, who have endured long decades of occupation. Is it not what Gandhi stood for, what Martin Luther King stood for?

Thousands of Israelis Gather in West Bank: On Thursday, thousands came to the Cave of the Patriarchs in the West Bank city of Hebron to celebrate its addition to Israel's list of national heritage sites. Member of Knesset Ayoob Kara (Likud) said that "not even Hussein Obama will remove us from Hebron":

The masses that have come here, including the 40 members of the Land of Israel caucus, are a guarantee and proof that no one will move us from the Cave of the Patriarchs, not even Hussein Obama.

The Prime minister needs to say 'no' to Barack Hussein Obama, and 'yes' to the people of Israel, who have come here in their multitudes today. He needs to grant permits to start building in settlements and in all of Israel.