Iraq Latest: Moqtada al-Sadr Makes A Move

Amidst the continuing power plays over who will lead the next Iraq Government, almost a month after the 7 March election, the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr took over the headlines on Friday, as his party held a referendum over whom they would support as Iraqi Prime Minister. (The vote was open to all Iraqis, not just Sadrists.)

Iraq: The Latest Political Moves

Sadr's party won 40 seats in the 325-member Iraqi Parliament, compared to the 91 of the Iraqqiya list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and the 89 of current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law list. That does not make the Sadrists "a kingmaker", as The New York Times is at pains to point out. However, it does mark a notable shift of power: within the Iraqi National Alliance list of "religious Shia" groups, the Sadrists overtooked the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which had been the dominant party.


The effect in the non-Iraqi media has been marked. Only a few days ago, some reporters were still stuck in the misleading narrative that Allawi "won" because Iraqqiya had a narrow plurality of seats. That was plainly not the case, given the difficulties for Allawi in putting together a coalition of 163 seats. At the same time, many journalists were making the mistake of writing out the Iraqi National Alliance as the "third-place" group.

Now the pendulum has swung. The simple maths --- 91+ the 70 of the INA puts Allawi on the verge of a majority in Parliament; same for Maliki with 89+70 --- highlight that INA has a top-table seat in a deal, and Sadr is trying, with the weight of the 7 March result behind him, to be the leading INA representative.

So Friday's move for a referendum is politically significant. Unless Maliki and Allawi can resolve their personal differences and deep animosities between their two lists to forge a "grand coalition", Sadr will get what he has long sought: a place inside the Iraqi tent of power.

Mark the change, especially for those who see Iraq as a continuing narrative of American power. Less than six years ago, US officials were putting out orders to capture or kill the upstart cleric Sadr; less than two years ago, the US military was pushing and joining Maliki and Iraqi forces to "crush" the Sadrists.

This is now, first and foremost, an Iraqi story. And I suspect there are many chapters to come.