Sunday
Aug232009
Iran: Assessing the Challenge to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei
Sunday, August 23, 2009 at 8:30
The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?
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Since the start of the post-election crisis, our assessment at Enduring America has been that the primary challenge within the Iranian system is to President Ahmadinejad's authority; we've gone so far as to argue that he is a "lame duck" even before his second term is underway. Despite flutters over the last week that the Green opposition is spent and that Hashemi Rafsanjani has caved in, we stand by that analysis.
Maryam at Keeping the Change has her own critique of this issue:
For more than two months, the world has watched as Iran's Reformists have battled with Establishment figures over the June 12th election results. In recent weeks, the friction within Iran's Establishment has received comparable attention, becoming headline grabbing news for media outlets across the globe. Whether it's conservative-camp criticism against Ahmadinejad or statements attacking the Supreme Leader by former MPs and religious figures, the international press has been up in arms, "probing," "examining," and "demystifying" what it has understood as " significant challenges" from inside and outside the Establishment to Ahmadinejad and Khamanei's continued power.
This response to the public outpourings of approbation, while unsurprising, is to a certain extent an exaggeration of the situation. Admittedly, Iran is hardly a bastion of individual liberty, with freedom of speech, much like the right to vote, being a much circumscribed right within the Islamic Republic. Nonetheless, whatever its quality, political criticism in Iran does exist in a limited form. To whit, "freedom of speech" bubbles over, as long as the denounced subject is relatively powerless and, therefore, a non-controversial target.
In this spirit, criticism of Ahmadinejad is alive and well in the country -- even prior to the June 12th elections, robust challenges to Ahmadinejad and his policies came in all shapes and sizes, from the highest-echelons of the government to the man on the street. Public censure of the Supreme Leader is, however, another matter entirely. As many have noted by now, instances of open criticism against the Leader are unheard of and overt critics of Khamanei few and far between (the government is widely-believed to be responsible for the 1995 death of Ahmad Khomeini, son of the Islamic Republic's founding father and a vocal critic of Khamanei). The current outpouring of sentiment critical of the Leader should, therefore, rightly cause the world to stand up and take notice. At the same time, however, interpreting these public statements as representing a political threat to the Leader's continued rule is another matter entirely.
Read rest of article....
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Since the start of the post-election crisis, our assessment at Enduring America has been that the primary challenge within the Iranian system is to President Ahmadinejad's authority; we've gone so far as to argue that he is a "lame duck" even before his second term is underway. Despite flutters over the last week that the Green opposition is spent and that Hashemi Rafsanjani has caved in, we stand by that analysis.Maryam at Keeping the Change has her own critique of this issue:
The "Freedom to Challenge:" Public Criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamanei
For more than two months, the world has watched as Iran's Reformists have battled with Establishment figures over the June 12th election results. In recent weeks, the friction within Iran's Establishment has received comparable attention, becoming headline grabbing news for media outlets across the globe. Whether it's conservative-camp criticism against Ahmadinejad or statements attacking the Supreme Leader by former MPs and religious figures, the international press has been up in arms, "probing," "examining," and "demystifying" what it has understood as " significant challenges" from inside and outside the Establishment to Ahmadinejad and Khamanei's continued power.
This response to the public outpourings of approbation, while unsurprising, is to a certain extent an exaggeration of the situation. Admittedly, Iran is hardly a bastion of individual liberty, with freedom of speech, much like the right to vote, being a much circumscribed right within the Islamic Republic. Nonetheless, whatever its quality, political criticism in Iran does exist in a limited form. To whit, "freedom of speech" bubbles over, as long as the denounced subject is relatively powerless and, therefore, a non-controversial target.
In this spirit, criticism of Ahmadinejad is alive and well in the country -- even prior to the June 12th elections, robust challenges to Ahmadinejad and his policies came in all shapes and sizes, from the highest-echelons of the government to the man on the street. Public censure of the Supreme Leader is, however, another matter entirely. As many have noted by now, instances of open criticism against the Leader are unheard of and overt critics of Khamanei few and far between (the government is widely-believed to be responsible for the 1995 death of Ahmad Khomeini, son of the Islamic Republic's founding father and a vocal critic of Khamanei). The current outpouring of sentiment critical of the Leader should, therefore, rightly cause the world to stand up and take notice. At the same time, however, interpreting these public statements as representing a political threat to the Leader's continued rule is another matter entirely.
Read rest of article....
Reader Comments (3)
A very dissapointing, weak, long yet funnily enough not much saying analyses which I dont think is of the quality to be published by EA. I am very surprised at this !!
It almost avoids all the major happenings which will undoubtfully have a big impact in the future.
A very flat at places even unbalanced document which gives a totally wrong view on things due to the emphesis being placed at the wrong things at the wrong time. It is very simpel yet it lacks explaining the situation simply not leaving the reader a good understanding as to what is happening and hence does not allow the reader to anticipate in a balanced way as what tommorow may bring.
I am very dissapointed to see this article on EA. flat, simple, long and basically pointless.
Oh wow I read my response and thought I was being to harsh so I went back and re-read the article, it is actually worse then my first thoughts were. I am very surprised this article has managed to be published on EA !!!!
This totally ignores the realities of Iran, the history of the current situation and the significance of the latest events perhaps hence leaving all major questions open at the end.
Agree with Afshin