Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader's Warning to Ahmadinejad

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For all the agonised analysis of the body language between the Supreme Leader and the President yesterday --- were they still friends? was there a bit of tension still about? when is a kiss not a kiss? --- all it would have taken to get a meaningful answer was this glance at Press TV English's website, "In Leader approval, Ahmadinejad warned over critics":

As certain political figures join opposition in rejecting the disputed election results, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution strongly backs the president for a second term, but urges him to heed the views of his “critics.”

In a step leading up to his inauguration in Parliament, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Monday threw his weight behind President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday, describing him as "courageous, astute and hardworking."

The Leader added that his endorsement and the people's vote remains in place only until President Ahmadinejad stays "on the right path."

The entire article is a series of slaps to the President. "The endorsement decrees are normally read by the previous president -- even for the second term of the new president in office," but Mohammad Khatami was absent, and so were Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and "powerful cleric and official" Hashemi Rafsanjani. "There were also no representatives present from the family of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini."
The story up to yesterday is presented in neutral, even favourable, terms for the opposition:

The development against a backdrop of political trials comes as Ahmadinejad's much-disputed re-election in June was met with an outpouring of anger demonstrated in mass protests across the country, with demonstrators dubbing the poll as rigged.

At least 30 people were killed and thousands, including prominent Reformists and journalists, were rounded up in the course of the protests staged by supporters of the opposition who dismiss the official election result as "fraudulent" and call for its annulment.

With leading opposition figures Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi refusing to acknowledge Ahmadinejad's presidency, the incumbent's re-election provoked bickering in the country's political circles.

Even more importantly, Rafsanjani gets three paragraphs of supportive coverage, including his statement, "Doubt has been created. There are two currents; one has no doubt and is moving ahead. And the other is a large portion of the wise people who say they have doubts. We need to take action to remove this doubt."

The conclusion? Well, Press TV offers its own body-language photograph, which we've reprinted, for the article and notes, "Ayatollah Khamenei...insisted that the views of the critics 'should be given much reflection'."

Today Ahmadinejad shouldn't worry about kissing the Leader's shoulders. It's time to be looking over both of his own.

Comments

[Amy]

This comment is based solely on the Press TV article, so I'm probably way too simplistic. Have to leave-- hope it's not incoherent...

First:
According to Press TV, "The Leader cautioned President Ahmadinejad that the angry crowd would continue their opposition and challenge his government during his next 4 years in office." It sounds like Khamenei doesn't see the protests ending. I can't look up the long version of his speech right now, but in this excerpt, he isn't talking about eliminating the opposition... he expects opposition to be there for the long haul. Don't know if it's the view of Khamenei or of Press TV.

Next:
Rafsanjani divided the citizens into 2 categories:
1) Those with no doubt about the establishment
2) Those with doubts

Khamenei divided the people into 3 parts:
1) a large portion who support the president
2) "the angry, wounded opposition"
3) "critics who have no enmity with the establishment and the president"

The first 2 are somewhat similar to Rafsanjani's groups, but the 3rd, the critics are not clearly positioned. They may share some views of the opposition, but they "have no enmity", as opposed to being "angry & wounded"

Since the critics aren't included in group one, Khamenei is dividing the opposition. He wouldn't have made this distinction for no reason. Here are a couple of benefits:
1) He said the critic's views “should be given much reflection.” In saying so, he made himself an opening to sometimes side with the critics without appearing to give in to the opposition. In that way, he saves face.

2) Opportunities for triangulation. As reformist clerics are joined by more conservative clerics, he can try to split them as objective & oppositional. He can attempt to divide the people from the clerics... there are many permutations

[M.]

Interesting comment Amy!