Turkey and Israel: Will There Be a Misstep in Their Diplomatic Dance?

Turkey: Manoeuvring Against Israel Over Palestine
Shifting Alliances: The Israel-Turkey-Syria Triangle

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The complex dance between Ankara and Tel Aviv --- how does one keep in step on vital economic and military ties when there are so many tricky political issues to negotiate? --- continues.

On Monday, the military relationship got a symbolic and real boost with Turkish, Israeli, and American participation in the annual Reliant Mermaid search-and-rescue naval exercise in the Mediterranean. On the other hand, the Turkish Government’s criticism of Israel policies, pursued in part for domestic political benefits, has not come to an end.

Last week Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said Israel would no longer be a part of Turkish-mediated talks with Syria. Ayalon added that this was not because of Ankara's "failure” but because of Syria’s “intransigence”, but this was not enough for Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Davutoglu said this week that the time has come for Israel to openly display its will for peace, if it has any such intentions.

The daily manipulations and challenges in diplomatic circles continue to overshadow the strong links between the security institutions of Turkey and Israel. So a vital question emerges, beyond Ankara's domestic calculations. If Israel continues to pursue policies at odds with Turkey's manoeuvres with Middle East states, which gives way: Ankara's hopes for expansion of influence in the region or its economic-military bonds with the country hindering that grand strategy?

Turkey's Importance: “Signature Bridge" for an Alliance of Civilizations

The position of Turkey --- geographic, political, economic, and social --- in the Middle East, in "Europe", and in the world has always been a key issue in the evolution of international affairs. This will be no less true in the decade to come; indeed, Ankara's significance is likely to redouble. In this article, Colette Mazzucelli, Oya Dursun-Ozkanca, and Laura Wicks combine analysis with the hope that Turkey's approach to Europe and the "East", including the Middle East, can be a vital response to the notion of a "clash of civilizations".

As the years pass, Turkey’s significance on the Western and global scenes is likely to increase as that country’s interest in joining the European Union begins to wane. Turkey’s geography, which straddles the Western, Slavic Orthodox, and Persian civilizations, raises the question of what it means for this vital country to be a bridge between East and West. The world continues to bear witness to the East in the midst of an early 21st century Renaissance lifting millions out of poverty on an unprecedented scale as the West experiences a crisis, foretold ironically in that period in which too many were prematurely celebrating a mythical “end of history".

The evolution in Europe’s neighborhoods brings strategic considerations to the fore as the balance of power in the world shifts to the Orient. The Union is not likely to enlarge to Turkey or Ukraine in the near future. Without enlargements that double its present market potential to close to a billion inhabitants and which mitigate the staggering impact of aging on its societies, the Union cannot aspire to compete on the global scene with rising powers China, India, or even Brazil.

Turkey is vital to European and global security not only in terms of geopolitics. We must also consider the ways this country can participate in 21st century institutions of governance to develop its specific role in global affairs. In other words, how can Turkey build a “signature” bridge, which maximizes its unique potential to span East-West and North-South relations? The present institutional architecture still reflects the world of 1945, when the interests of rising powers as well as strategically vital states must be taken into consideration in reflections about what Peter D. Sutherland has identified as an “alliance of civilizations”.

Reflections on Europe as “empire by integration” must confront the reality that the Union faces: the persistent challenge of cultural assimilation. For nation-states that have long defined their separate identities on cultural and linguistic homogeneity, the prospect to integrate peoples from diverse civilizations poses considerable difficulties. This is more complicated if one restricts the notion of citizenship. National citizenship can privilege a singular identity as a way to exclude.

In contrast, European citizenship offers hope in the prospects to accommodate inclusiveness within Union member states. A culture of hope is the foundation upon which Europe’s Union must build to avoid those sharp categorizations, which, in Sen’s words, create the “illusion of destiny”. Europe’s security challenge and Turkey’s signature bridge capacity are one and the same: refuting Huntington’s clash of civilizations, which, in the member states of Europe’s Union, is increasingly a clash from within.

Yet this convergence of interests faces tremendous challenges. Enlargement fatigue and the limits of the present EU institution’s absorptive capacities occur as Islamic fundamentalism is on the rise. Terrorism as well as anti-Western ideologies threaten human security inside the Union’s borders. Russia has cultivated its relationship with Iran providing that country with intelligence, technology, and weapons. Stronger EU relations with Turkey, and Russia, will bring the Union into greater contact with Iran, which is the growing regional power in the Middle East and a gateway to the Orient in terms of energy supplies.

With approximately 20 million Muslims living within the borders of the Union, anti-Islamic sentiments in many European countries are on the rise. Just this month, the EU announced a new visa regime that allows the citizens of Serbia, Montenegro, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to travel to Union member states without a visa, while excluding three other Balkan countries with a majority Muslim population: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and Kosovo.

Improving dialogue with the Islamic civilization presents a huge challenge for the Union. However, Turkey presents solid evidence that democracy and Islam can be compatible, and the Turkish model in the Islamic world is of particular interest to the United States in terms of the balance of power emerging in the Middle East. As President Obama and his advisors contemplate a comprehensive regional strategy, a stronger relationship with Turkey is the glue to cement an alliance of civilizations. With its 99 percent Muslim population, Turkey has significant soft power potential vis-à-vis the countries in the Muslim world. It plays an important role in the projection of democracy, freedom, the rule of law and human rights in the Balkans, the Middle East, the Black Sea region, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, and North Africa.

The Union should try to put the engine on a different track to engage Turkey in European security. Instead of focusing on the differences in an enduring rhetorical war over Turkish accession, Europe’s leadership must act strategically in ways that consistently strengthen Turkey’s integration into EU frameworks. This is particularly important regarding openness in global trade relations. Turkey’s human capital must be developed to respond to a service-oriented global environment. Education is a key area that must receive more attention in order not to squander the youth potential, which is a vanishing asset as the Turkish population of approximately 72 million ages. As Turkey overtakes Germany in population growth from 2023, the country’s leadership will face the same problem demographically in terms of policy choices as Europe.

This is perhaps the most important reason why the promotion of Turkey’s human capital is essential in the construction of its signature bridge. The Turkish model is still the best hope for the West to combat religious terrorism, which is plaguing many different countries around the world. Avoiding the illusion of destiny, which is wedded to a singular identity for a person or a country, is critical to sustain an alliance of civilizations. Turkey’s evolution makes it possible to recognize both a Muslim country and a modern Western democracy, identities are neither mutually exclusive nor incompatible. These identities are neither mutually exclusive nor incompatible, which is a recognition as necessary in the promotion of the Continent's external security as in the consolidation of domestic peace within Europe's increasingly diverse nation-states.

Dr. Colette Mazzucelli has taught on graduate faculty at New York University's Center for Global Affairs since 2005. Dr. Oya Dursun-Ozkanca, a native of Turkey, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Elizabethtown College. Miss Laura Wicks is a recent graduate of the M.S. Program in Global Affairs at New York University.