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Friday
Aug212009

The Latest from Afghanistan: The Election

Afghanistan Election: The Videos

EA Soundcheck: Assessing Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq
EA Soundcheck: 7 Points on Afghanistan’s Presidential Election

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In addition to our ongoing coverage of the post-election crisis in Iran, we'll be keeping an eye on developments in the Afghanistan election. For a guide to the campaign and the issues, see our analysis and listen to our audio at EA Soundcheck, both on the eve of the election and on the night after the vote. Our colleagues at Alive in Afghanistan are providing a full map-based overview of the latest news and incidents. Follow the links for updates for useful poster on Twitter or track the incoming messages at #afghan09. And here is a useful map to keep "at your side" on the computer.

AFGHANISTAN FLAG

1115 GMT: Pajhwok News Agency is offering a stream of reports pointing to manipulation and fraud in the counting of the vote. In one case in Khost Province, it claims that while residents say less than 500 people, the election commission returned a total of more than 22,000 for Hamid Karzai.

0840 GMT: No, I've Won. Abdullah Abdullah's camp claim that he, not Hamid Karzai, is a first-round winner, taking 63 percent of the vote to Karzai's 31.

If I were a cynic (which, of course, I am not), I would say that all remains to make this situation complete is for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to show up and say he won.

0715 GMT: Jim Sciutto of ABC News reports that the campaign of Abdullah Abdullah, Hamid Karzai's main challenger, has denied the claims of a first-round victory by the Karzai camp.

The election commission has responded, "We have no results yet...This is not official...We don't accept [the Karzai claims]."

0630 GMT: Last night I discussed the election and and its significance with Fintan Dunne. Already I was looking towards the prospect of a first-round Karzai victory,  more because of manoeuvres behind the scenes than because of the up-front vote.

Perhaps more importantly, other questions are opened up. Look, for example, to how Karzai tries to exert his authority, not only with other Afghan groups but against his American "allies". And, for all the cautions about "democracy" in this election, has the process opened up some space --- symbolic or "real" --- for social and political action against corruption and for rights and development?

21 August, 0600 GMT: A Full Glass for Karzai? All day yesterday we used the phrase "half-empty, half-full" for the election, with mixed returns on turnout, "minor" violence which killed at least 27 people, and reports of irregularities and fraud.

The trend continues today, with one important exception. Election authorities say that the national turnout was between 40 and 50 percent, well down on the 70 percent for the 2004 Presidential election but above the 30 percent threshold needed for a valid result. Caroline Wyatt, reporting from Helmand for the BBC, has just engaged in a bit of cheerleading for the "success" and "incredible result", given the issues of security. Other observers, such as Al Jazeera English, are being more measured in their views.

The important exception is President Karzai, whose team are already prepared to celebrate. Karzai's campaign manager told Reuters this morning, "Initial results show that the president has got a majority. We will not got to a second round."

1830 GMT: In one district of Logar Province in eastern Afghanistan five polling centres were burned and 28 rockets were fired at others.

1825 GMT: In his televised address this evening, President Karzai hailed the day as a triumph: "I greet the brave and courageous people of Afghanistan on the successful conduct of elections, which is a propitious sign for establishing a democratically elected government and promoting democracy in the country." This is about as unexpected as the Pope declaring that God is a jolly nice chap.

More intriguing is the statement of Karzai's primary challenge, Abdullah Abdullah, that he found initial results "satisfactory and encouraging".

1700 GMT: Three election centers reported attacked and burned, with all ballot boxes destroyed, in Shindand district of Herat in western Afghanistan.

1535 GMT: Well, the media line is now in. As the Voice of America puts it, "Afghan Election Spared Major Attacks, But Questions Linger Over Turnout". That spares the immediate blushes of the US military, a perspective that was all too painfully clear in Spencer Ackerman's initial piece for The Washington Independent, with its framing of "a testament to Brig. Gen. Damien Cantwell’s security strategy". At the same time, it reflects the doubts over the "Democracy Triumphs" narrative, as voter participation is unlikely to meet the benchmark of 70 percent in the 2004 election. (The BBC is reporting from Kandahar, using unnamed sources, that turnout will struggle to reach 50 percent.) Ackerman's follow-up piece, an interview of Akbar Ayazi of US Government-funded Radio Afghanistan, again tells a tale with Ayazi's commment, “Personally, I feel the psychological war conducted by the Taliban somehow worked...[as evidenced] “by low turnout."

That, however, only sketches the limitations of the media's narrative. The inevitable framings of "security" and "democracy" will miss the power politics that is already going on within Afghanistan. Some media outlets have dared to mention election irregularities but almost none in the mainstream have gotten to the substance, which is the attempt by President Hamid Karzai's camp to ensure he crosses the 50 percent threshold for a first-round win and the opposition attempt by Abdullah Abdullah to take the battle to a run-off. Favours are being swapped, I suspect money is changing hands, and there is evidence that ballots are being stuffed or fabricated or destroyed.

The point is not to throw around the blanket charge of "corruption" but to put up the realities. From the start, this was not as much a question of defeat of the Taliban and (in substance, if not symbolism) the exercise of the vote but of whether Karzai could extend his stay in office and influence for another four years. If so, then he could move from being the Number One Dealmaker in Afghanistan to a renewed attempt to take the lead, including seizing initiative from the Americans, in the political manoeuvres vis-a-vis other factions as well as the Taliban.

1415 GMT: Our friends at Global Post are also providing running coverage today. Their headline tips off their mood: "Clashes, and threats, spook Afghan voters".

1400 GMT: President Karzai is speaking on national television. He has said there were 73 attacks today.

1355 GMT: Here's the 21st-century technology to claim election fraud. Candidate Ashraf Ghani is sending out a stream of messages on Twitter to claim, "Warlords in north, northeast, south and southeast force people at gun point to vote for either Abdullah or Karzai."

1330 GMT: Foreign Policy puts out an interim summary, drawing from various sources, on today's developments. Apart from believing that the tale of "Britney Jamilia Spears" voting in Kandahar is new (it's not --- the fake registration was the source of Internet giggling last week), it's not bad. The one bit we haven't covered here: "A voting official in Kandahar said that turnout appears to be forty percent lower than in 2004, the spiritual homeland of the Taliban, and AP correspondents reported similarly shorter lines in the capital, Kabul."

1320 GMT: Earlier we reported that a Commander Razziq (1000 GMT) had taken the novel step of removing the ballot boxes to his house. Now it is claimed that all vote-counting has been stopped by force in Spin Boldak [southern Afghanistan] by the commander.

1315 GMT: From Pajhwok News Agency: "Taliban attack 5 polling centers in Baghlan capital [northern Afghanistan], steal 25 ballot boxes; fleeing poll workers preserve 10"

1310 GMT: Too early to draw wide conclusions but have to say that concerns are rising. From Atia Abawi of CNN: "Government official told me that provinces reporting high numbers of ballot stuffing in provinces with low turnout."

1300 GMT: The half-full, half-empty turnout today is captured by these reports: "In Ghazni province [east Afghanistan], 10 of 18 districts had no voting at all; but in other 8, all was fine....Wardak [east-central Afghanistan]: Of 9 districts, 2 with normal voting, 2 with no voting [because] Taliban blockd road, 5 with some problems but voting continued."

No half-full in Kandahar, though, where turnout is reported very low.

1203 GMT: Reliable EA source, from witness accounts, says the two people killed in Kabul firefight this morning were not "suicide bombers" but Afghan Army troops.

1200 GMT: Claims that latest rocket attack in Kandahar has killed one and injured three people.

1145 GMT: Election commission says polling stations may extend their hours if they opened late or "for other reasons".

1130 GMT: Conflicting reports over the end of the voting day, with some saying that stations have closed and others saying there has been an extension of one hour. Best estimate is "Polls closing, but voters still in line in many places".

1020 GMT: In Faryab Province in northern Afghanistan, 50,000 voters were reportedly shut out in districts under Taliban control.

Even more troubling news has come out of Baghlan, where the police commander was killed this morning. Reports indicate that intense fighting has continued in the area, with more than 20 insurgents killed.

1010 GMT: If the touchstone for "success" is Kabul, then the verdict is still out. A CNN correspondent claims that, halfway through the voting day, turnout in the capital had reached 30%; turnout in the rural areas of Kabul Province are reportedly higher than expected. The two gunmen who died in a firefight are now being described as "suicide attackers"; media cameras at the scene were confiscated, and some journalists were arrested.

1000 GMT: Developments continue to follow the general pattern. There has been good (and peaceful) turnout in some areas such as Herat, Mazar, Ghazni, and Samangan. Other areas such as Helmand Province and Kandahar have been marred by restrictions on voting, low turnout, and/or violence. Reports of roadside bombs and suicide attacks are continuing.

Difficulties and irregularities in the voting process have been claimed. In one case, a commander reportedly took all the voting boxes from nearby stations into his house. The not-so-indelible "indelible" ink story is still circulating, with candidate Ramazan Bashardost claiming, "This is not an election. This is a comedy." There are reports of children voting.

o830 GMT: Reports coming in of incidents throughout Afghanistan: at least seven improvised explosive devices in Kabul, rockets on a Kunduz polling place, and rockets in Lashkar Gah in Helmand.

0755 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Go Away. General Rashid Dostum, the former militia commander who holds sway in Uzbek areas in northern Afghanistan, has rejected allegations that his return from exile in Turkey is linked to delivery of votes to President Hamid Karzai:
I have no personal agreement with Karzai....The people ... they became somewhat sick while I was away ... I heard them say, 'If General Dostum doesn't come here, we won't vote'....I thought, God forbid people don't vote, so I came here to make sure that people vote.

0745 GMT: More than Fireworks (0710 GMT). Reports of a firefight in Kabul between gunmen and the Afghan army have been confirmed by Governor of Kabul. Two gunmen were killed, one wounded.

0725 GMT: More from Helmand: "8 Rockets hit Lashkar Gah. 2 dead, one wounded at least. Widespread fraud in the city."

0710 GMT: Truth or Spin? From Atia Abawi of CNN: "Governor of Kabul says security situation is fine, just incidents of fireworks to scare people and one dead body found, killed by sniper."

0700 GMT: Al Jazeera reports that, while turnout is good in areas like Bamiyan, concern is growing over low turnout so far in Kabul. It notes incidents and low turnout in Kandahar in the south, played down by the Governor, and repeats the BBC's observation that stations are closed in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand Province.

0630 GMT: Going by international television at this hour, well into the morning's voting in the Presidential election, there is no real news. With obvious difficulties in covering a large country, especially amidst security considerations, a lot of the coverage consists of reporters standing at polling stations and saying, "There are voters here." Sometimes this becomes, "There are a lot of voters here," with little insight into whether "a lot" consists of a queue at that moment or a significant proportion of the local population. (Media spotcheck: CNN International is really awful at the moment, filling empty space with mainly "Ra-ra-ra Democracy" words, before giving 30 minutes to World Sport. Al Jazeera, recognising that up-to-the-minute news may be patchy, is providing a lot of background, as is BBC Radio. BBC TV, at least here in Britain, is nowhere.)

However, "no real news" could be good news, if that means an absence of violence and disruption. So, appreciating that any glance can only be partial and limited at this time (and for some time to come), what are the signals?

The reports from observers and better-informed sources are decidedly mixed on voter turnout. The report of Voice of America, "At polling station in Kabul mosque, short line of men, few women showng up" has just been followed by Pajhwok Afghan News, "Good voter turnout in Herat". Putting the bits together (and reminding reader that Alive in Afghanistan has an outstanding map-based site to give perspective), it seems that some areas have solid turnout and no need for security whereas other areas will struggle. BBC radio reported 30 minutes ago that more than half the polling stations in Helmand Province, the highlight trouble spot in Afghanistan, have not opened.

There are scattered reports of violence, including a District chief and one other person killed in Kandahar, two killed in or near Khost, and small explosions in Kabul.

Potentially more significant politically are the first indications that election fraud will be alleged. Soon after president candidate Ramazan Basharadost, who has run an energetic campaign based on anti-corruption pledges, voted, he and his supporters claimed that the "indelible" ink used to mark fingers and prevent repeat voting was washing off. The immediate reaction, either from truth or an attempt to limit the allegation, is that "substandard" ink had been used.
Sunday
Aug092009

The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

NEW Video: Hillary Clinton on Iran (9 August)
Iran Special Analysis: The Tehran “Foreign Plot” Trial as a Political Weapon
More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: Ayatollah Sistani Intervenes
How Not to Help Iran: The Folly of US Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (8 August): Regrouping

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CLOTILDE REISS

1915 GMT: In a meeting that could offer significant clues to his political future, President Ahmadinejad
"will attend the  [Parliament] session on Monday to exchange views and interact with lawmakers," according to Principlist MP Vali Esmaeili.


1650 GMT: Fars News English says two more citizens of Western European countries have been arrested for "recording an illegal gathering in Vanak Square [in Tehran] using a hi-tech camera." The pair allegedly also had "footage of some Israeli towns" from a 10-day visit to Israel.

1640 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper of Mehdi Karroubi's party, has summarised a letter written by Karroubi to Hashemi Rafsanjani "10 days ago". Karroubi asked the former President to ensure an investigation was launched into the abuse of detainees, including allegations of rape of women and young boys.

1635 GMT: The Threat Against Mousavi. The move by a bloc in Parliament to convict Mir Hossein Mousavi of "leadership" of post-election rioting has been complemented by the head of the political office of the Revolutionary Guard, Yudollah Javani. Writing in the weekly Sobheh Sadegh, affiliated to the Guard, Javani declared, "If Mousavi, [Mehdi] Karoubi and [Mohammad] Khatami are main suspects behind the soft revolution in Iran, which they are, we expect the judiciary...to go after them, arrest them, put them on trial and punish them".

1625 GMT: To Fire Two Ministers is a Misfortune, To Fire Four is a....The civil war within the Ministry of Intelligence, which we've been following as a marker of even bigger battles inside the Government, continues. Apparently, it is no longer two Deputy Ministers --- as well as the Minister, Gholam-Hossein  Mohseni Ejeie, who have gone. According to Mazin News, "the purification project is continuing" with the dismissal of the Deputies for Parlaiment and for Technical Affairs.

1315 GMT: Setting Up a Firebreak. A "firebreak" is where you deliberately burn out a rows of trees to establish a line to check a forest fire. In Iran, this weekend's firebreak is the head of Kahrizak prison, who has just been fired and put in jail (1230 GMT). Getting rid of him draws a line of the head of police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, the man who announced the firing, because a leading the "principlist" bloc, which holds the most seats in Parliament, has put responsibility on Ahmadi-Moghaddam. Hamid-Reza Katouzian said, “Unfortunately, the gross misconduct of Kahrizak officials have resulted in the murder of scores of young people. The Iranian Police Chief is duty bound to provide a clear explanation in this regard.”

1230 GMT: Another Limited Concession. In another sign that the Government is balancing pressure on the opposition with some acknowledgement of its errors by sacrificing lower-level officials, Reuters reports, via the Islamic Republic News Agency, the statement of Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam  "The head of the [Kahrizak center has been sacked and jailed. Three policemen who beat detainees have been jailed as well."

Ahmadi-Moghaddam also repeated the statement of chief prosecutor Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi (0750 GMT) that some post-election detainees had been abused in the prison.

1200 GMT: We've separated out this morning's initial update as a special analysis on the political meaning of the Tehran trial. There is also an analysis of an important criticism of the Supreme Leader by the influential Iraq-based Ayatollah Sistani, and the latest news on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead Friday prayers in Tehran.

1000 GMT: Getting the Story Straight. Last week President Ahmadinejad reportedly told a gathering in Mashaad that he wanted to "take [the opposition] by the collar and slam their heads into the ceiling". This, however, may have been a bit off-line. Forget the impression that Ahmadinejad might have been condoning the rough treatment of detainees: could you picture the President trying to power-lift Hashemi Rafsanjani?

So Ahmadinejad has revised the script to fit the "foreign plot" trial: "After speaking at the meeting a number of media outlets reported that I was referring to my opponents, but I was in fact referring to the bulling and interfering powers."

0955 GMT: Just in case folks hadn't figured out the purpose of the Tehran "foreign plot" trial, a group of pro-Government members of Parliament have lodged a complaint against Mir Hossein Mousavi "as the driving force behind the recent turmoil which swept across the country".

The story, which is on Press TV's website, is very sketchy. The initiators of the complaint are labelled vaguely as "the influential clerics' bloc in Iran's parliament along with a number of other Majlis representatives", with a member of the National Security Commission, Mohammad Karami-Rad,  taking the lead: "We are pursuing the complaint against Mousavi and soon this letter of complaint will be handed to the judiciary so that the legal proceeding is conducted [on the matter] and the rioters are brought to justice."


0930 GMT: The Tehran Times reports a statement from the Deputy Head of Majlis [Iranian Parliament] National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Hossein Sobhaninia, that the commission would discuss the case of three detained Americans in its weekly meeting on Sunday. The trio were picked up by Iranian security forces after crossing the border while hiking in Iraqi mountains.

0830 GMT: While Ahmadinejad is choosing his Cabinet, he may want to have another word with his staff handling Iranian media. After pro-government outlets claimed that Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi sent a congratulatory message to the President, an official from the Ayatollah's office stated, "His eminence has not congratulated Ahmadinejad and does not intend to do so. These [claims] are perversions of the truth emanating from individuals who until now have been applying pressure to us and are now forced to manufacture and propagate falsehoods."

0810 GMT: During a visit to "the club of young reporters" on Saturday, President Ahmadinejad said that he will introduce his cabinet at the beginning of next week. He promised, "The young will have a prominent presence in the new cabinet."

0750 GMT: The New York Times, however, isn't concerned with Chief Prosecutor Dorri-Najafabadi's statement on Saeed Hajjarian (0740 GMT). Instead their newsflash, overtaking even coverage of the Tehran trial, is that Dorri-Najafabadi "Acknowledges Torture of Protesters". They highlight the passage in the press conference where the prosecutor said, “Painful accidents [had occurred] which cannot be defended, and those who were involved should be punished.”

Dorri-Najafabadi specifically talked about “the Kahrizak incident”, referring to the detention centre whose closure was ordered by the Supreme Leader. He insisted, “Maybe there were cases of torture in the early days after the election, but we are willing to follow up any complaints or irregularities that have taken place.”

0740 GMT: One piece of news which, in the smallest of ways, cuts against the Government's latest moves to break the opposition.Iran's head prosecutor, Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, has recommended that Saeed Hajjarian should be moved and kept under control in his own home. Hajjarian was transferred from detention in late July to a residence owned by the Iranian Government.

Dorri-Najafabadi added that, despite the recommendation of Hajjarian's physician that his patient be released due to his physical state, Hajjarian is in good health.