Wednesday
Dec102008
Things that Make You Go Hmmmm....: The British Withdrawal from Iraq
Wednesday, December 10, 2008 at 9:40
Instead of handing over to Iraqi authorities, the British will be replaced at their Basra airport base by a large force of US troops, who will set up their own headquarters there....
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"Britain's six-year occupation of south will begin drawing to a close in March, and the last troops will leave Basra by June."
The surprise is not in that revelation, which is Page 1 in today's British newspapers. Enduring America predicted this several weeks ago, based on leaks from UK military. The pretext will be, after Iraq's provincial elections in January, that the country is now secure enough for the British to depart. The legal reality is that, with the expiry of the mandate on 31 December, British troops will have no authority to be in the country.
There were noises last week that Britain would follow the US in getting a Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi Government. Given that it took Washington almost a year and a lot of concessions to get an arrangement which isn't secure, London has a snowball's chance in hell of obtaining the authority to stay at Basra Airport.
Instead of swallowing the pill of British Withdrawal being handed to them, here are the two twists in the tale that the press should be chasing:
First, the BBC's morning announcement of "the 4100 British troops will be coming home by June" is hyper- simplistic. The line until recently was that the British is not drawing down its overseas commitment but re-deploying forces to bolster the US in Afghanistan.
So are the 4100 --- or replacements for them --- swapping Basra for the outskirts of Kabul or the battles in Helmand Province? Or is Britain pulling the boys back as a signal that it doesn't want to play in the US adventures anymore?
Even more important, however, is the hidden surprise in the story: this isn't a withdrawal but a swap:
Instead of handing over to Iraqi authorities, the British will be replaced at their Basra airport base by a large force of US troops, who will set up their own headquarters there....
The precise timing of the first homecomings will depend on the arrival of an American two-star military headquarters, which will be set up at the airport base northwest of Basra city....The US forces will extend their reach south of Baghdad, partly in order to guard supply routes from Kuwait.
So the US, rather than drawing down its own troop levels in Iraq, is extending its commitments and headquarters in the country?
Mmmmmm indeed.
---
"Britain's six-year occupation of south will begin drawing to a close in March, and the last troops will leave Basra by June."
The surprise is not in that revelation, which is Page 1 in today's British newspapers. Enduring America predicted this several weeks ago, based on leaks from UK military. The pretext will be, after Iraq's provincial elections in January, that the country is now secure enough for the British to depart. The legal reality is that, with the expiry of the mandate on 31 December, British troops will have no authority to be in the country.
There were noises last week that Britain would follow the US in getting a Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi Government. Given that it took Washington almost a year and a lot of concessions to get an arrangement which isn't secure, London has a snowball's chance in hell of obtaining the authority to stay at Basra Airport.
Instead of swallowing the pill of British Withdrawal being handed to them, here are the two twists in the tale that the press should be chasing:
First, the BBC's morning announcement of "the 4100 British troops will be coming home by June" is hyper- simplistic. The line until recently was that the British is not drawing down its overseas commitment but re-deploying forces to bolster the US in Afghanistan.
So are the 4100 --- or replacements for them --- swapping Basra for the outskirts of Kabul or the battles in Helmand Province? Or is Britain pulling the boys back as a signal that it doesn't want to play in the US adventures anymore?
Even more important, however, is the hidden surprise in the story: this isn't a withdrawal but a swap:
Instead of handing over to Iraqi authorities, the British will be replaced at their Basra airport base by a large force of US troops, who will set up their own headquarters there....
The precise timing of the first homecomings will depend on the arrival of an American two-star military headquarters, which will be set up at the airport base northwest of Basra city....The US forces will extend their reach south of Baghdad, partly in order to guard supply routes from Kuwait.
So the US, rather than drawing down its own troop levels in Iraq, is extending its commitments and headquarters in the country?
Mmmmmm indeed.