Oh, Here's Another Crisis You Might Want To Notice: Somalia

Breaking News: Jeffrey Gettleman has a follow-up piece in The New York Times tomorrow promoting Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, "a well-respected, moderate Islamic cleric", as Ahmed's successor.

Remember the Government in Somalia?


Well, it no longer exists.

President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned Monday, the final confirmation that he had little or no effective authority. There is no prospective replacement. Given Ahmed's repeated attempts to dismiss Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein this month, it is uncertain if there is even an operating central Government in Moghadishu. For the moment, the call is for "parliamentary unity".

Jeffrey Gettleman in The New York Times reported Monday on the emergence of fighting between "Islamist" factions, in particular between a new movement Ahlu-Sunna Wal-Jama and the Shabab, "one of Somalia's most militant groups".

That story may have significance, however, as a tip-off to Washington's response to Ahmed's downfall. Having toppled the Islamic Courts government in 2006 but failed to get stability, the US Government --- through the State Department and/or the incoming Obama Administration --- may be envisaging an "acceptable" Islamist leadership. No doubt that leadership will be expected to accept the emerging US oversight of the region through the new African Command.

Who that leadership will be and, more importantly, how they will take power in Mogadishu is just a bit unclear, however. So once again it seems that the US has ideas for how a country should be "reshaped" with little regard for the political and social complexities.

Stories to Watch After Christmas: Afghanistan and Somalia

AFGHANISTAN SURGE: THE US MAKES IT FIRST MOVE

From McClatchy News Services:

The U.S. Marines are considering requesting two battalions and a combat aviation unit in Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan, which would be the largest proposed expansion of U.S. troops in the volatile region, two senior Marine commanders.


If approved, the move would involve roughly 3,000 Marines and support staff, and it would mark the Marines' shift from the once-restive Anbar province in Iraq to places such as Helmand and Farah provinces in southern Afghanistan, which U.S. and NATO officials concede that Taliban forces have overrun.

BUT IN EASTERN AFGHANISTAN, IT'S THE TALIBAN IN CONTROL

From The New York Times:

Attacks provide the latest evidence of how extensively militants now rule the critical region east of the Khyber Pass, the narrow cut through the mountains on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border that has been a strategic trade and military gateway since the time of Alexander the Great.

The area encompasses what is officially known as the Khyber Agency, which is adjacent to Peshawar and is one of a handful of lawless tribal districts on the border. But security in Khyber has deteriorated further in recent months with the emergence of a brash young Taliban commander who calls news conferences to thumb his nose at NATO forces, as well as with public fury over deadly missile attacks by American remotely piloted aircraft.

SOMALIA: THE LOST AMERICAN INTERVENTION

Two years after the US-prompted regime change that forced the Islamic Courts out of power in Mogadishu, this from The Washington Post:

Advisers to Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf said Wednesday that he would yield to mounting internal and international pressure and resign over the weekend, but officials close to him insisted the situation remained dynamic.

Talk of Yusuf's impending resignation came as the prime minister he appointed last week quit, saying he wanted to end the political infighting that has paralyzed Somalia's transitional government as an Islamist militia has advanced across the southern half of the country.