Saturday
Dec202008
Showdown for the al-Maliki Government? The Stakes are Raised
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 8:46
The manoeuvring inside the Iraqi Government just got very interesting:
Beyond that information, all is muddle. The New York Times, for example, starts its analysis with the assertion that the Ministry of the Interior is "affiliated with members of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful Shiite party that is a rival to Dawa [the party of Prime Minister al-Maliki]". Hmm, given that ISCI is also part of the al-Maliki coalition, that far from clarifies matters.
Nor does the next sentence: "Some [Ministry of Interior] officers were members of the Baath Party before the American invasion." Hmm, again. The Baath Party of Saddam Hussein was Sunni, and since I don't think you can that ISCI is too well-disposed to the Baathists who jailed and killed its members.
So what do we have here? My snap reading was that the arrest of the 24 was a move to block a prominent Sunni role in the security services. However, it is significant that the Minister of the Interior who revoked the arrests, Jawad al-Bulani, is a Shi'a without affiliation to either Dawa or ISCI.
Soon after he became Minister in 2006, al-Bulani pledged to clean up the higher ranks of the Ministry, accused by many of supporting Shi'a sectarian killings of Sunnis: "Western officials and some Iraqi officials have said that he has lacked the political support to conduct the necessary purges, particularly at the upper levels of the ministry."
This time, however, it is al-Maliki's inner circle who have moved to purge, not al-Bulani. Does that mean --- as al-Bulani claims and as al-Maliki's American allies are privately saying --- that the motivation has little to do with corruption and sectarian violence and far more to do with manoeuvring before Iraqi elections in 2009?
I don't know. But I do know that al-Bolani's step is a major slap in the face to al-Maliki. If the 24 are reinstated in their posts next week, this Iraqi Government --- whatever its reasons for moving against the "early coup" --- will have been significantly weakened.
Iraq’s interior minister said all 24 of his officers who had been arrested in a security crackdown this week would be released. And in a bold gesture of defiance, he publicly condemned his own government’s investigation, calling the accusations false and motivated purely by politics.
Beyond that information, all is muddle. The New York Times, for example, starts its analysis with the assertion that the Ministry of the Interior is "affiliated with members of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful Shiite party that is a rival to Dawa [the party of Prime Minister al-Maliki]". Hmm, given that ISCI is also part of the al-Maliki coalition, that far from clarifies matters.
Nor does the next sentence: "Some [Ministry of Interior] officers were members of the Baath Party before the American invasion." Hmm, again. The Baath Party of Saddam Hussein was Sunni, and since I don't think you can that ISCI is too well-disposed to the Baathists who jailed and killed its members.
So what do we have here? My snap reading was that the arrest of the 24 was a move to block a prominent Sunni role in the security services. However, it is significant that the Minister of the Interior who revoked the arrests, Jawad al-Bulani, is a Shi'a without affiliation to either Dawa or ISCI.
Soon after he became Minister in 2006, al-Bulani pledged to clean up the higher ranks of the Ministry, accused by many of supporting Shi'a sectarian killings of Sunnis: "Western officials and some Iraqi officials have said that he has lacked the political support to conduct the necessary purges, particularly at the upper levels of the ministry."
This time, however, it is al-Maliki's inner circle who have moved to purge, not al-Bulani. Does that mean --- as al-Bulani claims and as al-Maliki's American allies are privately saying --- that the motivation has little to do with corruption and sectarian violence and far more to do with manoeuvring before Iraqi elections in 2009?
I don't know. But I do know that al-Bolani's step is a major slap in the face to al-Maliki. If the 24 are reinstated in their posts next week, this Iraqi Government --- whatever its reasons for moving against the "early coup" --- will have been significantly weakened.