Tuesday
Dec232008
OK, Now It's Time to Talk Zimbabwe
Tuesday, December 23, 2008 at 6:26
Here's that latest exchange over Zimbabwe in full:
US and British Governments: Robert Mugabe, you must step down now.
Robert Mugabe: No.
A few weeks ago, we noted that US attention --- especially that of the incoming Obama Administration --- seemed to be on the Sudan, rather than Zimbabwe. In the last 72 hours, however, the tone has shifted. American officials, especially Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, began declaring that the power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe was "dead" and that Robert Mugabe should step aside. CNN this morning is featuring an interview with Frazer in which she declares that it is time for other African states to step up their pressure on Mugabe and that the US will now take the matter to the United Nations for further sanctions.
The problem is that a shift in rhetoric doesn't mean a significant shift in outcome. Calling the power-sharing patient deceased is only confirming a death that took place many weeks ago. And given Mugabe's tenacity, even in the face of appalling economic and social conditions in Zimbabwe, it is unlikely that any diplomatic measures or sanctions will shift him. Nor, given the apparent loyalty of the security services to the President, is a coup a foreseeable solution. That leaves military intervention, which Frazer explicitly ruled out --- at least with the participation of American forces --- in the CNN interview.
Forecast? Given that Obama's appointment as US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, is an African specialist, Zimbabwe will have its turns in the United Nations spotlight. But the prospects are more for finger-wagging, with the get-out clause that it's the African states who are to blame because they are "soft" on Mugabe, than for any significant change in fortunes for the Zimbabwean population.
US and British Governments: Robert Mugabe, you must step down now.
Robert Mugabe: No.
A few weeks ago, we noted that US attention --- especially that of the incoming Obama Administration --- seemed to be on the Sudan, rather than Zimbabwe. In the last 72 hours, however, the tone has shifted. American officials, especially Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, began declaring that the power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe was "dead" and that Robert Mugabe should step aside. CNN this morning is featuring an interview with Frazer in which she declares that it is time for other African states to step up their pressure on Mugabe and that the US will now take the matter to the United Nations for further sanctions.
The problem is that a shift in rhetoric doesn't mean a significant shift in outcome. Calling the power-sharing patient deceased is only confirming a death that took place many weeks ago. And given Mugabe's tenacity, even in the face of appalling economic and social conditions in Zimbabwe, it is unlikely that any diplomatic measures or sanctions will shift him. Nor, given the apparent loyalty of the security services to the President, is a coup a foreseeable solution. That leaves military intervention, which Frazer explicitly ruled out --- at least with the participation of American forces --- in the CNN interview.
Forecast? Given that Obama's appointment as US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, is an African specialist, Zimbabwe will have its turns in the United Nations spotlight. But the prospects are more for finger-wagging, with the get-out clause that it's the African states who are to blame because they are "soft" on Mugabe, than for any significant change in fortunes for the Zimbabwean population.
tagged CNN, Jendayi Frazer, Robert Mugabe, Susan Rice, Zimbabwe in Africa
CNN, Jendayi Frazer, Robert Mugabe, Susan Rice, Zimbabwe in Africa