Wednesday
Dec242008
Iraq: Showdown Averted?
Wednesday, December 24, 2008 at 22:47
Iraq-watchers can take a deep breath, at least for a few days. It looks like the al-Maliki Government has avoided an immediate crisis through a bit of manoeuvring, a bit of luck, and a bit of a climbdown.
First, the manoeuvring and the luck. The Iraqi Parliament didn't push the Government to the wall over the extension agreement setting a date of 31 May 2009 for the withdrawal of troops from Britain and five other countries. Having voted the initial agreement down on the weekend and then postponed a vote on Monday, the Parliament accepted that the withdrawal could be set by a Government resolution.
Members made their point that al-Malilki couldn't just railroad his proposals through. The luck for the Government came in the thank-you gift they could offer to Shia'a and Kurdish Parliamentarians: the departure of the Sunni Speaker of Parliament, Mahmud al-Mashhadani.
The Speaker was on shaky ground with his flamboyant, unpredictable behaviour, including repeated threats to resign. Last week, however, he went too far, trying to cut off discussion of the case of shoe-thrower Mantazer al-Zaidi and calling his colleagues "the worst Parliament in the world".
So, for the moment, the Government and Parliament each can claim maintenance of some authority, an uneasy but essential compromise in the run-up to elections.
Now for the Government climb-down. The 24 Interior Ministry officials arrested last week on allegations of developing a post-Baathist political party have now been bailed on lesser charges of preparing false documents.
The episode has turned into a struggle between al-Maliki and Co. and the Minister of the Interior, Javad al-Bulani, an "independent" (in both party affiliation and approach) Shi'a politician. If the arrests were political score-settling, al-Bulani's public position, the outcry from other parties, and American concern all clipped the Prime Minister's wings.
And now? Well, one might suggest a few days of uneasy truces all round.
Those few days may be turn out to be exactly one week, however. That's when Muntazar al-Zaidi comes to trial --- if he does not plead guilty, letting al-Maliki off the political hook, then the manoeuvres will start anew.
First, the manoeuvring and the luck. The Iraqi Parliament didn't push the Government to the wall over the extension agreement setting a date of 31 May 2009 for the withdrawal of troops from Britain and five other countries. Having voted the initial agreement down on the weekend and then postponed a vote on Monday, the Parliament accepted that the withdrawal could be set by a Government resolution.
Members made their point that al-Malilki couldn't just railroad his proposals through. The luck for the Government came in the thank-you gift they could offer to Shia'a and Kurdish Parliamentarians: the departure of the Sunni Speaker of Parliament, Mahmud al-Mashhadani.
The Speaker was on shaky ground with his flamboyant, unpredictable behaviour, including repeated threats to resign. Last week, however, he went too far, trying to cut off discussion of the case of shoe-thrower Mantazer al-Zaidi and calling his colleagues "the worst Parliament in the world".
So, for the moment, the Government and Parliament each can claim maintenance of some authority, an uneasy but essential compromise in the run-up to elections.
Now for the Government climb-down. The 24 Interior Ministry officials arrested last week on allegations of developing a post-Baathist political party have now been bailed on lesser charges of preparing false documents.
The episode has turned into a struggle between al-Maliki and Co. and the Minister of the Interior, Javad al-Bulani, an "independent" (in both party affiliation and approach) Shi'a politician. If the arrests were political score-settling, al-Bulani's public position, the outcry from other parties, and American concern all clipped the Prime Minister's wings.
And now? Well, one might suggest a few days of uneasy truces all round.
Those few days may be turn out to be exactly one week, however. That's when Muntazar al-Zaidi comes to trial --- if he does not plead guilty, letting al-Maliki off the political hook, then the manoeuvres will start anew.