Wednesday
Dec162009
The Latest on Iran (16 December): What's Next?
Wednesday, December 16, 2009 at 19:59 
1945 GMT: Khatami on Moharram. Illustrating the analysis in Mr Azadi's "Beginners Guide to Moharram", former President Mohammad Khatami put out a message linking the commemoration of the third Imam, Hussein, with today's challenge in Iran:The Islamic society has one major goal and that is to reform the society contentiously; It could be either by reforming the government by establishing a suitable government or by reforming the way government rules and the methods it interacts with the society. Imam Hossein said that he did not fight to gain power but he did fight for reform in the Islamic society….Before the revolution the goal of the reform was to establish a new government but now that the Islamic Republic is established, reform must continue to strengthen it.
NEW Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech in Mashhad (6 December)
NEW Iran: Why the US Sanctions Game on Tehran is All Wrong
NEW Iran Picture of the Day: Mohammad Khatami’s Cellphone
Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to Moharram
Latest Iran Video: The University Protests (15 December)
Iran: US State Department Pushes for “Proper” Sanctions in 2010
UPDATED “Where is My Vote?” (Part 2): TIME Snubs Green Movement as “Person of the Year”
The Latest on Iran (16 December): What’s Next?
1900 GMT: So Is Raf Ready for the Fight? He's sure talking like it. Following his advice to Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, "Get Help" (1730 GMT), he's taken on other critics: "Some people make their reputation by slandering others and the appropriate response to such people is silence."
Rafsanjani advised regime officials to strengthen “society’s trust” in the system by executing the provisions of the constitution and respecting peoples' rights. No amount of Government restrictions could prevent the legitimate demands of the Iranian population: “With the dismantling of media monopolies, today’s generation are well-informed and they’ll only be more so in the future.”
1730 GMT: Karroubi and Rafsanjani Smack Down Yazdi, Part 2 (see 0740 GMT). Payvand has an English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's verbal demolition of Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the Ahmadinejad ally who threatened him with punishment over claims of detainee abuse:
Regarding your remark and your concern about me being a "joke", I should remind you that those who are briefing you, are telling you jokes; that's why you have this illusion that the political turmoil and the critical situation of the society is like a joke!...I remind you that what I do and will do is based on my belief and duty in defending the rights of each and every citizen, and this for me is the main goal and responsibility.
If you use clear and free sources, you will see that wherever Mehdi Karroubi joined the people, they received him with kindness. Unlike some, his popularity did not diminish with time, but with the kindness of the people --- despite all the limitations and closing down my newspaper and offices --- I am blessed with their support every day.
If you don't agree with the views of someone, why don't you act according to the law? Why do you deal with it by hiring a number of thugs and causing trouble in the neighbourhood in the middle of the night? Is this what you are proudly talking about that if Karoubi did not have bodyguards what you could have done to him? Is this what you promised people at the beginning of the revolution? What has happened to your dignity as a member of the Guardian Council?!
Karroubi, after expressing concern's for Yazdi's "age and illness" ("I hope you get better soon"), "pointed out the financial interests that Ayatollah Yazdi and his son have in the country and the incidents that has shown his incompetence as a former head of the judiciary; he then asked him to resign from his public posts as a member of the Guardian Council and a member of the Assembly of Experts so that he won't make more mistakes either for his own gain or due to wrong information".
Meanwhile, Rafsanjani had a succinct suggestion for Yazdi, who argued that Rafsanjani's family members should be tried for activities surrounding the Presidential election, "Get Help":
For many years my response to Ayatollah Yazdi has been greetings and wishing him health. If some think that by intimidation and bullying they can solve the problems they are making a mistake and even if they can solve the problems temporarily but after a short while those problems will return in greater extent than before.
1628 GMT: Tearing Down Internet Walls. The US State Department has notified Congress that is waiving the threat of sanctions on US companies that provide anti-censorship software:
The Department of State is recommending that the Department of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issue a general license that would authorize downloads of free mass market software by companies such as Microsoft and Google to Iran necessary for the exchange of personal communications and/or sharing of information over the internet such as instant messaging, chat and email, and social networking. This software is necessary to foster and support the free flow of information to individual Iranian citizens and is therefore essential to the national interest of the United States.
1617 GMT: Lemming Mediawatch Alert. Forgive me for being cranky, but we've been immersed for a few hours in an intense period of political activity inside Iran --- an episode which could lead to a breaking-point conflict between the regime and figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani --- and the "Western" media are still fluttering about the Iranian missile test from this morning, which frankly doesn't mean that much. (Really.) So --- CNN, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, New York Times --- you're on notice.
(Credit to Reuters, which has picked up on the threat of the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that there is "enough evidence" to try opposition leaders --- see 1125 GMT.)
1614 GMT: What's the Fuss About Rafsanjani About? Have a look --- we've posted a second English summary of his 6 December speech in Mashhad, together with background on his "unity" strategy and a link to the first summary of the speech.
1610 GMT: Peyke Iran have published an updated list of people detained in 16 Azar (7 December) protests.
1538 GMT: Accessing Mowjcamp. The Green Movement website, which was hacked earlier today (0725 GMT), can now be accessed via an alternative Internet address.
1530 GMT: Mortazavi's Back. Amidst the rhetorical drama of today, an announcment which is relatively low-profile. It is confirmed that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, who has led the legal crackdown on post-election protests but had been rumoured to have fallen out of favour in Tehran, is now back in the Presidential fold. He has been appointed as Ahmadinejad's special representative to combat smuggling of goods and currency.
1525 GMT: And Now from the Reformist Side. The regime makes its threat, and reformist MPs hit back. Darius Ghanbari has warned that pro-Government "extremists" want to put millions in Iran's jails.
1510 GMT: More on Regime v. Rafsanjani. Yep, as we noted below (1440 GMT), it is Rafsanjani's Mashaad speech that has lit the fire under the Government. The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamedon, admitted as much with his own challenge to the former President: the recent remarks had put the "wood" on the "fire" of the post-election conflict.
1455 GMT: The Green Counter-Attack. Alireza Beheshti, the chief advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has said in an interview that it is curious how the Iranian regime leaves no time and space to "replace their lies about imperialism". In a direct rebuke to the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, who called yesterday for the arrests of opposition figures, Beheshti said that the lies were being spread to destroy the leaders of the Green Wave.
Beheshti's statement is also an implicit attack on the Supreme Leader's continuing focus on the evils of the US and Israel, including their attempts to use the opposition for regime change in Iran.
Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's wife, has also intervened against the regime's criticisms on the "burning of Khomeini" incident, arguing that the Green Movement is a result of the ideals and approach of the Imam.
1440 GMT: Urgent --- The Attack on Rafsanjani. This can now be classified as an all-out assault, short of arrest, on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to shut him up and block any manoeuvres against the Government.
We have more details of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi's attack (see 1125 GMT), made in a meeting with the leaders of Tehran's mosques, military representatives, and officials. Moslehi, in a conference about the post-election crisis, emphasised that meetings had been held in Britain before the 12 June Presidential vote to stir up trouble against the Ahmadinejad Government and the Islamic Republic.
Moslehi claimed that Rafsanjani and an unnamed leader of the Green movement had sent emissaries to these meetings. He also noted that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is now in Britain, where he has spent most of his time since June amidst allegations that he has been involved in illegal activity surrounding the election.
The specific naming of Rafsanjani, rather than a figure such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, indicates that the Government has specifically targeted him as a threat who must now be removed amidst the continuing protests and calls for "unity" to remedy post-election problems and injustices. The move is probably linked to Rafsanjani's recent speech in Mashhad, which we covered extensively on Enduring America two weeks ago.
1235 GMT: Defending Opposition Leaders. With the regime stepping up its verbal attacks on the opposition, two reformist members of Parliament, Mohamad Tabesh (the nephew of Mohammad Khatami) and Nasrullah Torabi, have defended the movement's top political figures. Torabi said that, if the regime tried Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami on charges, they "should try the history of the Islamic Revolution", given the important role that the three men had played in that revolution since 1979.
1230 GMT: March Manoeuvres. With Mir Hossein Mousavi's petition, submitted with Mehdi Karroubi, for a march protesting the attacks on Imam Khomeini, likely to be rejected, his supporters have a new approach this morning: a letter calling on the Green movement to join the already-authorised marches after Friday Prayers.
1125 GMT: A Renewed Threat of Arrests? EA correspondent Mr Azadi brings us a rush of stories and invites us to connect the dots:
1. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has launched a new attack on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. In a speech on the "intrigues" of those who wanted to undermine the Islamic Republic, Moslehi specifically mentioned the "children of Rafsanjani". The assault is now the lead story on the Islamic Republic News Agency website.
2. The previous IRNA lead story: Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, has called the opposition "un-Islamic" and opposed to Iran's Revolution and the ideals of Imam Khomeini.
3. Perhaps most ominously, the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani --- only days after meeting with President Ahmadinejad -- has said that his offices have "enough evidence" to bring opposition leaders to trial. He specifically indicated that Mehdi Karroubi may be prosecuted over false allegations of the rapes of post-election detainees, and he added that Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements of the last month are similar to those of the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq in the early years of the Islamic Revolution.
0955 GMT: Sanctions Folly, Khatami Fun. We've got two new entries: a story from Gary Sick about a US simulation pointing out the weaknesses in American strategy on Iran and a Picture of the Day of Mohammad Khatami's cellphone.
We also have an update on the Time "Person of the Year" story.
0905 GMT: Lemming News. The BBC has joined the Iran missile story, although it at least puts in a caveat before getting panicky: "Correspondents say it is not the first time this missile has been tested, but it is likely to provoke condemnation from the West as a provocative act." (Al Jazeera English has the story, but without the tagline promoting how the "West" will respond.)
CNN is promising on Twitter, "More on www.cnn.com", but the folks on their website don't seem to have gotten the message yet.
0755 GMT: The "We're Tough-You're Scary-Stop the Presses" Roadshow. And here's one that may keep the media diverted from other issues today. The Iranian military is declaring that it "has successfully tested an optimized version of the solid-fuel Sejjil-2 deterrent missile as part of its long-term plans to defend the country's borders". Look for "Western" media to seize on this as more evidence of Iran's offensive intentions, linking it to the nuclear issue.
(Well done, Sky News, for making my prediction come true within two minutes of posting: "The move is likely to increase tensions with the West over Tehran's nuclear ambitions." Two minutes, it's MSNBC from the US with "an announcement likely to add to tension with the West".)
0753 GMT: The Sanctions Cycle. Well, here's a surprise on all fronts: US House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress, passes bill for sanctions on foreign companies supplying gas and petroleum to Iran; Iranian official declares, "They cannot succeed...."
The question beyond the posturing is whether the Congress rams through the measures despite opposition from the US State Department, which fears that the bill in current form could alienate American allies.
0750 GMT: Mahmoud Gives Danish TV a Slap. Hundreds of miles away from the main action, President Ahmadinejad can strike a tough pose. In an interview with Danish television, Ahmadinejad, was asked, "Would you like a nuclear bomb?" He offered the response that nuclear bombs were a bad thing which brought the journalist's follow-up, "So you can say to me, the whole world and all viewers in Denmark and Europe that you will never have a nuclear bomb?"
Oops, that crossed a line. The President replied, "I gave a clear answer to your question. I would like you to be aware of who you are talking to."
0740 GMT: Karroubi Gives Yazdi a Slap. An interview I wish was available in English: Mehdi Karroubi spoke on Tuesday about Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the Ahmadinejad ally and former head of judiciary who has been issuing threats of prosecution against opposition leaders and Hashemi Rafsanjani's family. Karroubi's message to Yazdi? Step down from your positions, do a bit of learning, and just get back to me.
0725 GMT: One success for the regime this morning: the key reformist website Mowjcamp has been hacked by the Iranian Cyber Army.
0715 GMT: The feeling yesterday was of chesspieces being moved once again. Mir Hossein Mousavi put out a statement of encouragement to the students while he and Mehdi Karroubi waited for an answer on their petition for a march to promote the defacing of the image of Imam Khomeini. Their supporters also highlighted the latest declaration of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri supporting protest and denouncing the oppression of the regime.
On the Government side, officials such as the Governor of Tehran made noises about security being out in force to prevent the opposition spoiling the month of Moharram and the days of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December). The Supreme Leader devoted himself, in a meeting with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, to the "Israel is very, very bad" theme. Notably, however, President Ahmadinejad is again removed from the scene, attending the climate change summit at Copenhagen.
News of university protests was concentrated on two campuses, Tehran Azad (where state media was also playing up a pro-Government rally, for which we have still seen no visual evidence) and the science and technology institution Elm-o-Sanat, with reports and footage of a rally at Razi University in Kermanshah. But here was the new twist: students were demonstrating at Qom University. That's Qom, as in the heart of the Tehran clerical system and establishment.
tagged Alireza Beheshti, Ashura, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Azad University Tehran, BBC, CNN, Elm-o-Sanat University, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Imam Khomeini, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khaled Meshaal, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousasvi, Mohammad Khatami, Moharram, Mojtaba Zolnour, Morteza Tamedon, Mowjcamp, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Nasrullah Torabi, New York Times, Qom University, Reuters, Sadegh Larijani, Sejjil 2, Sky News, State Department, Tasua, Twitter, US Congress, Washington Post, Zahra Rahnavard, sanctions in Middle East & Iran
Alireza Beheshti, Ashura, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Azad University Tehran, BBC, CNN, Elm-o-Sanat University, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Imam Khomeini, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khaled Meshaal, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousasvi, Mohammad Khatami, Moharram, Mojtaba Zolnour, Morteza Tamedon, Mowjcamp, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Nasrullah Torabi, New York Times, Qom University, Reuters, Sadegh Larijani, Sejjil 2, Sky News, State Department, Tasua, Twitter, US Congress, Washington Post, Zahra Rahnavard, sanctions in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (28)
Mowjcamp is back up now :)
Anna,
Still hacked when I tried now.
S.
@ Scott
Strange.. I can see it and are able clink on links on the page fine but it was hacked earlier for me too
Anna,
Obviously, certain authorities have discovered the Axis of Evil between Mowjcamp and EA.
S.
From Kevin Scott:
Hi Barry (continuing this conversation from yesterday)
I am wondering why you use the “YAWN” emoticon against the bit about the alleged find of documentation regarding a so-called nuclear trigger. Are you bored with the subject? Do you disbelieve the subject?
I think that many of us Green supporters who live in the United States just have a weariness by now from what we perceive as the American media over-covering the nuclear issue, and under-covering the Green movement (and domestic events in Iran generally.) My sense is that while fairly substantial news of post-election events in Iran are usually ignored, even the slightest drop of non-news on the nuclear issue will easily become a front-page story here.
Now this doesn't mean that all news about the nukes is worthless, or that I don't care if the regime gets nukes. Indeed, its possible that some reports like this ( http://bit.ly/6Ubnhd ) might prove to be meaningful. Its just that there is a proportion problem here, as well as a degree of fear-mongering going on.
A final thought involves the angle I might be coming at this from. I agree that it is a Very Bad Thing if the Khamenei / Ahmadi axis gets nukes. (although I might not consider it as much the "end of the world" as some others do.) A regime that lies about virtually everything and represses its own people can scarcely be trusted with a nuclear bomb. Its just that I tend to think the best hope for successful negotiation with Iran, and a future with Iran rejecting nuclear weapons, is the success of the Green movement. The current regime has not ever shown themselves to be trustworthy negotiating partners, and given the current domestic situation, I don't think they are even united enough to move negotiations forward at this time. An attack on Iran by the U.S., Israel, or some other country is a bad idea for about a zillion different reasons. Sanctions will probably not change the mind of this regime - they are going to do what they are going to do regardless. Hence, I feel it is the progress of the democratic movement - which presumably will much more adequately represent the views of the Iranian people - that actually presents the best hope for peace with a non-nuclear Iran.
Kevin
It has me wondering with all the news about nukes and arms testing in Iran. Could it be that the regime is trying to provoke a "nasty" response from the West or god forbid from Israel? They might be realizing their best chance of defusing the issue is to provoke an international response that would pull the people together under the banner of "defending the nation." Just a thought but one to ponder considering it is looking more and more like they have nothing to lose. The only draw back is they have no way of gauging what the response would be. Who knows the West may decide the nukes along with regime change are the options to pursue. Lets hope it does not come to that.
Kevin Scott
I agree with you, it's what I have written in my comment on :
“Iran: Why the US Sanctions Game on Tehran is All Wrong”
1.
ange paris says:
16 December 2009 at 11:09
The 5+1 have only one solution to succeed in finding a response for their own problems ( nuclear concern ); they have to bet on green movement and do everything they possibly can so that ” the movement of iranian people ” wins; they have been always shouting : ” we don’t want nuclear bomb ” !!
RE 7:15 "President Ahmadinejad is again removed from the scene, attending the climate change summit at Copenhagen."
I bet he's gonna suck all the Co2 out of the room as soon as he arrives :-)
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30658.html
"I would like you to be aware of who you are talking to."
What the reporter should have said "Yes I realize I am talking to a monkey who believes when he enters the UN a glowing light embraces him, writes secret notes to the hidden Imam, believes Iran is leading all the nations of the world, says there are no gays in Iran, and the self appointed coup leader who stole an election! Is that correct sir Monkey?"
In french media it's written that iranian regime ha organised a rally to protest attacks on Ayatollah Khomeyni, after friday prayer ; according to Moussavi's website, the rally of green movement is organised in front of Tehran university ! is it a reconciliation or a strong fight ??? in the website there is nothing about Khomeyni but only "we will gather to ask " where is my vote " !!
@ Ayatollah Jannati
Remember that this very person labeled all non-Islamic people in 2005 as "animals grazing on the earth and producing dirt and vice": http://news.gooya.com/politics/archives/039681.php
What a providence! IRGC and Bassiji troops are certainly non-Islamic...
Morteza Tamaddon, governor of Tehran province, declared that no permits are necessary for demonstrations on Friday 18th: http://www.parlemannews.ir/index.aspx?n=6343
Love Bill Davit's comments, they are so right. These ppl in govenment are so stupid that are dangerous.
Here is Zahra Rahnavard’s news link at 14:55
http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=6231
Wow, and just when we thought Karroubi had been cowed. And "Get Help." LOL.
http://twitter.com/MikVerbrugge/status/6737429689" rel="nofollow">More Raf. awesomeness LMAO.
We might have a showdown between Rafs and IRGC during moharram. Rafs got his own army. I will be interesting to see how things unfold the next two weeks.
^And by "his own army," I think we mean THE Army (Artesh). That showdown may be inevitable; it's no less scary though.
Rafs probably has loyalists within IRGC as well, if not he can probably buy their loyalty, he`s Iran`s richest man. Many people fear a civil war if Artesh gets involved, I doubt that, a high percentage of IRGC footsoldiers oppose the regime.
Prediction: The protests will escalate, IRGC attemtps to carry out a full scale military coup, artesh gets involved, minor clashes, army and IRGC soldiers side with people, SL leaves the country. we live happily ever after.
Shangooli
Good prediction ! you have forgotten the end "... and we will have a lot of chidren " !!
^Yes, but we don't KNOW that, so until something final happens, it's scary
I`m an oracle, I know. Rest assure, SL is running out of oxygen.
Re: 16:17 Update (also a follow-on to my remarks earlier)
See Scott, this is one reason why an constantly-increasing amount of us from Twitter and in the West now come on EA to read your stuff so often. You totally "get" it! We've been cursing under our breath about this for months (if not years in some cases).
The problem with coverage in the West presents two separate sets of frustrations. The obvious one is the complete lack of awareness it leads to in the West. But the second, more personal problem, is that most of the time the end-arounds that Westerners try to take around it leads to the same roadblock: Farsi. Not many of us (unless we come from Iran) can read it very well, nor pick it up as fast as we want to. Thus the translating work that you and your staff does is very important to us. While there are quite a few doing a very commendable job to bring us news in English (such as TehranBureau, or Neo-Resistance, or Pedestrian), with the exception of the biggest days, there really are only you and a few Twitters that are actually trying to rush out and translate news as it happens on a day-to-day basis.
Good predictions Shangool... Good luck to all Iranians! Showdown between IRGC and the Artesh is inevitable during this moharram. This thugs in the regime will not just leave without a fight. There are so much at stake for them. They are fighting for their life right now. We just hope and pray that there will be less bloodshed and its not too late for the many good men in the IRGC to realize that they are the soldiers of the Iranian people not for the few bad men in this regime.
Re: Bill #6 and Hassan #13 above, I wouldnt entirely rule that out. But it is interesting to note that Verbrugge and his sources seem to see the opposite - that the regime is very determined to smoothly and successfully get to the point where they have a nuclear deterrent, because they believe that it is the "final piece of the puzzle" that will ensure that they will never lose power through internal or external threats.