Iran: The Regime's Fightback?

We awake this morning to look for the results of the Government's attempt to repair the humiliation of Sunday's Ashura protests, pushing back through the simple measure of detaining more and more activists, student leaders and journalists (the latest prominent detainee is Mashaollah Shamsolvaezin). All day on Monday, the reports came in of plainsclothes forces entering homes throughout the country to take away those who are supposedly fomenting the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. And this comes on top of reports that more than 1000 protesters were taken to Evin Prison after the Ashura demonstrations.

The regime is also trying, after the failure on the first day of Moharram to show mass support, to mobilise the Iranian public. The Coordination Council of Islamic Propaganda announced that a "large gathering" will be convened in Tehran's Enghelab Square on Wednesday to protest the Ashura riots. There will also be pro-Government demonstrations in the provinces.

And then there are the token displays of a regime still supposedly in control. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has declared it will summon the British Ambassador over the “meddling” remarks of Foreign Minister David Miliband, who criticised the Government's oppression of protest. (No word, however, whether Iran will challenge the high-profile and more assertive comments of President Obama.)

The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist
Iran: Ashura’s Message “Iranians Are Not Punching Bags” (Josh Shahryar)
Iran: A Point of No Return?

We are working on a full analysis of these --- in our opinion, desperate --- responses for later in the week. For now, let's note two indicators that this is not going to steady the Government's (sinking?) ship.

First, the arrests have been tried before to break the movement. Indeed, they began even as President Ahmadinejad's supposed victory was being announced in June. They occurred after the mass marches of 15 and 20 June, the gathering for Rafsanjani's Friday prayers in July, before Qods Day in September, after the protests of 13 Aban in November....

And yet the Ashura demonstrations still took place. More importantly, they took place even though the regime had disrupted or contained the "leaders" of the opposition through their detentions and threats. The Jamaran memorial, with Mohammad Khatami's speech, was broken up on Saturday night. Mehdi Karroubi only emerged hours after the protests. Mir Hossein Mousavi was notable primarily because he was mourning the killing of his nephew by security forces.

The Ashura demonstrations still took place, despite the Government's repeated swinging of its fists. And have a look at the video that emerged --- emerged in numerous clips despite the hindrance to communications. Consider: many of those demonstrating were no longer covering the faces.

Second, it is one thing to punish those who defy those with another wave of detentions. It is another to assert your legimitacy. So this morning, questions: where was the Supreme Leader on Sunday and Monday, as his authority was being challenged? Where was President Ahmadinejad on Sunday and Monday, as his Iran --- which supposedly is "10 times stronger" in its unity than any Western country --- came out on the streets? Where were their Ministers who had been so vocal only two weeks earlier in threatening to crush those who would dared not obey?

Where now is this Iranian regime?

Comments

[Bill]

Scott,

I thought the title "The Coordination Council of Islamic Propaganda" was a comedic attempt on your part. Boy was i surprised to find out it was the actual title. What nitwits!!!

Bill

[eyewonder]

Whatever happened to the council that sets up the supreme leader and can remove him if he is unfit? Isn't that part of the current structure? Isn't that council headed by Rafsanjani? (of course, a constitution is part of the current structure too and that is being patently ignored..)

Leadership. Without it, it's anarchy, isn't it? Historically, does anarchy bring about constructive change?

Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami- don't they all express the desire to reform within the current structure?

Can they lead a people who shout "Down with the " in the streets?

[Arshama]

Scott,

I agree with you that earlier arrests had no effect on the movement, as visible from the Ashura demonstrations. In view of that Sazegara stresses the fact that most of the arrested were not involved in Ashura or earlier demonstrations at all (e.g. Ebrahim Yazdi) and points out the decentralised structure of this movement, making it unstoppable for the regime. But this obvious perplexity applies to the opposite camp as well, especially to their alleged leaders Moussavi and Karroubi. Staging demonstrations (regime on Wednesday) and anti-demonstrations (date unclear, announced by Sazegara today) will not help to solve the obvious political crisis further paralysing the country: yesterday the bazar of Tabriz was closed and Tehran's bazar working on half-speed.
Imho a third party is slowly emerging from this confusion, which is mostly secular and has lost all faith in political figures, especially the reformists, who failed to install genuine reforms in this system. It is mainly present at Tehran, but there may be also secular supporters in the provinces. By secular I mean those advocating a secular state, strictly separated from the mosque. The leaders of both sides are still ignoring this popular demand, whose exact percentage within the movement is difficult to assess, but predominant in the capital.
At present the regime's apparent weakness has avoided the worst-case scenario of a civil war (IRGC troops against the people), and it is to be hoped that the crackup of security forces, already visible on Ashura, will continue in the coming weeks.

[Gloumdalclitch]

The "large gathering at Enghelab Square" could be another occasion of an highjackig by the greens. Why don't they transforme it into a "Ceaucescu last speech" style of event?

[PB]

My local news just showed the "progovernment protest" It was like 100 people. How sad for the regime.
V

[Eine lange Liste « FREE]

[...] gewissen Bekanntheitsgrad und spiegelt bei weitem nicht das Ausmaß der Verhaftungswelle wieder. Enduring America berichtet von über 1.000 Festnahmen alleine am Sonntag.  Hier findet man die Liste auf Englisch [...]