Iran: How Significant Was the Regime's Rally?
Thursday, December 31, 2009 at 7:21 
EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers these thoughts, which are also posted on his personal blog:Today, pro-government Iranians took to streets in Tehran and possibly other cities in a show of support for the Ahmadinejad government and for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A report by CNN spoke of hundreds of thousands of people in Tehran alone and perhaps thousands more in “Tabriz, Shiraz, Arak, Gilan and Sistan-Baluchestan province.”
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According to CNN, protesters chanted slogans against Mir Hossein Mousavi, America, Britain, France, Israel and the Green Movement’s protests on Sunday (Ashura). However, the CNN report while accurate in most respects, failed to mention key facts about the protests, facts that would show their true nature.
For starters, the CNN report and some other media account do not mention that dozens of buses chartered by the Iranian government ran non-stop from villages and suburbs around Tehran and other cities, bringing in government supporters in hordes to the protest venues. The buses began their operation the day before, ensuring the protest looked large enough.
These protesters were then later dispatched to their homes outside Tehran and other cities by the same buses. So what seemed like tens of thousands of Tehranis was in reality a mix of Tehranis and non-Tehranis brought in specifically for the purpose of fooling the world into believing that Tehran and other cities fully support [Supreme Leader] Khamenei and [President] Ahmadinejad.
And while government-run media claimed millions and CNN claimed hundreds of thousands and that Tehran was ‘packed’ with protesters, independent analyses show that the protest in Tehran was composed of no more than 20,000 people. (a larger copy of image below)
Secondly, the reports fail to mention that the protesters were offered free refreshments at the expense of the government to keep them there and to boost their morale. Their banners, slogans, and even the declaration they released denouncing the opposition were written, prepared and handed over to them by the government. Protesters received all their material needs from the government from the minute they boarded the buses to the minute they got back home.
Even so, the enthusiasm that Green Movement supporters show when they are out protesting was non-existent during this protest. People had simply brought their whole families out for a day out on the streets after being prepped up by the government to counter the popular movement that is shaking the core of the Islamic Republic.
And even the government’s own media announced that there were no protests in some of the other large cities. Mashhad, the second largest city, saw almost no response. Neither did Isfahan, the third largest city. And there was no independent confirmation of protests from the cities that the government-run media reported.
Finally, there was no riot police, Basij or IRGC members out with batons, cables, pepper spray, tear ga,s and bullets to disperse the people or stop them from chanting and gathering. Compare this to the millions of people who marched onto streets in June or the hundreds of thousands that marched on Sunday in the face of brutal repression and a government ban on their protests, and you will clearly see the desperate attempts by the Iranian government to make the world believe it has significant support among the populace.
If the government lifts bans on opposition protests, does not cut off telecommunication systems to disrupt planning, does not arrests hundreds and kill dozens, then we’ll see millions out on Iran’s streets every day.
The truth is, if the government did have support among the people, the crowds on Ashura would have been split between the Green Movement and the supporters of the Islamic Republic. On that day, it was an overwhelming show of support for reform and a clear rejection of the Islamic Republic. Plain and simple. The ‘Tehranis’ the government showed the world today were huddled up in small pockets on that day or sitting at home in their villages, watching government propaganda on TV.
Protests like today’s may make the government feel a bit less insecure about its prospects of survival, but it is in no way going to change the resolve of the Iranian people or the perception of the government’s brutality and weakness in the minds of foreigners.
Reader Comments (51)
I was responding to John Galt- I am a fan of yours Josh and not questioning your journalistic integrity. FYI- female and married-just don't have time for generalizations and hysterics on this ultra important issue
Apk
Kurshid
That video you linked to is of such poor technical quality that nobody, Regine supporters or opposition, could make any assessment of it. The great majority of the scenes are close-ups, which allow no assessment of the number of people participating - and the VERY brief and small number of scenes which are not close-up are impossible to assess because of their very poor quality. The video also locks up half way though.
If you want to prove your point, you would need to come up with much better evidence than that. Josh's evidence is quite good.
Barry
Could fill up pages of info regarding the fraud behind the mandated and scripted pro-regime rally. Quite frankly, I didnt think anyone in the free world takes the regime's delusion and tricks seriously but the mullahs and a scattering of appeasers around the free world.
Apk
http://www.farsnews.net/plarg.php?nn=M589455.jpg
My point- check out this livelygroup of enthusiasstic women, having a great time, spirited and passionate at the pro-regime rally yesterday. Check out the pathetic photoshop skills - 2 dimensional, ill-fitting T shirts, writing on t-shirts all over the place, upside down sign, covered faces (shame for being there), loads of enthusiasm and passion in their personas, just really happy about being there. Judge for yourself John Galt
Apk
Better Quality Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFU9Gqq43rU&feature=player_embedded
Demonstrators in the city of Karaj with numbers under 1000. "Please also note that as usually women of Islamic Republic have taken their second class citizen role and walk behind men in the rallies....this is the best Islamic republic could put forth despite orders to shut factories, government offices, schools, banks "
I'll stop now unless more examples are requested- it is New Years Eve and we all need a little break- Happy New Years to all the hardworking, amazing supporters for our courageous brothers and sisters in Iran. This time next year we will all be dancing freely in the streets and squares throughout Iran!
Peace and a little rest
Apk
All silly propaganda aside. The regime has a mass support base and will easily outnumber any "opposition"any time and any where. I think exaggeration seems to be a full-time job for the so-called Iranians in the economic exile disapora. For the last 31 years we have been hearing about the end of the IRI. I have gotten old in anticipation. I think reality check is good for the soul once every decade. My non-partisan prediction is that this a a mere storm in a teacup and will leave many Iranian exiles and their backers with a world class heartbreak.
Observer-
31 years ago, the demographic and literacy rate in Iran was significantly different. The current population- seventy percent under 30 years old, and an astounding 95% literacy rate, plus the explosion of internet connecting us as a global community, may uproot your prediction. The list of changed phenonmenon, from defying the Mullahs to the vibrant shouts for a secular Iran, are quite different than anything you have witnessed in the past 31 years. Or clerics challenging the regime for raping it's citizens. These are powerful, emerging patterns, never seen in Iran's past. The young are the hopeful in life- and these young do not view their life worth living if they are not free. Their hopes and strong fight for freedom will be accomplished.
I understand your pessimism, however, I strongly disagree with it. All regimes fall, it's a historic fact. Combined with the chracteristics mentioned above, I know this insidious disease will be cured- sooner than you believe.
I believe Iran remains a very conservative and religious nation. I would have to agree with Observer, based on Iranian history and xenophobia mixed with strong national pride, any perceived interference by foreigners, particularly US and UK will backfire. Based on my discussions with people at senior levels, the so-called opposition is merely confined to North Tehran and the soft urban upper and middle-classes. One of the main fact that distinguishes this regime from the Shah's out of touch Eurocentric sychophants is its grassroots Islamic support base. The Shah was a western product and most of his government and parade ground generals had homes overseas and money in US and European banks.
The Mullahs, IRGC, Basij and military leadership is the product of very tough upbringing and baptism by fire during the long and ardous 8 year Iran-Iraq war. Almost all the 188 serving generals in the IRGC and Artesh are veterans, including President Ahmadinejad. As most veteran know worldwide, the bonds formed in trenches outlast any other ties. The IRGC is a real Band of Brothers. The IRGC runs an economy within the economy that directly and indirectly benefits over 20 million people via the intricate system of Bonyads (veterans foundations), Basij social welfare societies and religious charities, particularly in the rural religious heartland.
These people are sons of the Iranian soil and have no where to go, but remain and fight. I believe they will fight to the finish and simply won't go on an extented "vacation" to Panama. I also think the exaggerated claims about 'impending" demise of the Islamic Republic are very premature indeed and should be digested with a healthy dose of caution and skepticism.
Observer
"The regime has a mass support base"
If that is true, I have not seen yet any spontaneous gatherings of them. I have seen small orchestrated gatherings of people supporting the current Regime.
But you are correct in one thing - there is indeed a "mass base" out there. They have not emerged yet, in support of anybody . They are conservative by nature, and take their own good time to do things. In time, they will emerge when they realize that their fears are now unfounded, because times have changed and they realize that the changes will not harm them. They will then gain confidence that the changes are real and worthwhile to them. Then you will see them - but you will see them in a different light than before, and they will no longer be as you fondly remember them.
Barry
Historian
"I also think the exaggerated claims about ‘impending” demise of the Islamic Republic are very premature indeed and should be digested with a healthy dose of caution and skepticism."
I agree with you. This will be long drawn out and nasty. But the demographics and the poor economy (soon to become poorer) are against the Regime( regardless of the IRGC economy within an economy)
Barry
The holy Mullahs, IRGC, Basij and military leadership will execute at least 3 demonstrators arrested on Ashura, as the holy prosecutor Mohseni Ejei said on Thursday: http://norooznews.info/news/15934.php
People everywhere are conservative and fearful of new things by nature. The Iranians, the Historian and the Observer refer to, are getting on in years and do not represent the majority of the population.
Thirty years ago in America , our conservative country was filled with racism and sexism. Now the US has an African-American President and women are in prominent postions throughout the workplace and government. There is immense national pride in the US and we have served in many wars.
Our young people do not understand life without cell phones and computers. Their entire existence is much more connected and immediate than anything you or I have ever experienced. If you are at all familiar with Obamas campaign, you would know how organized and driven the effort was because of technology and youthful exhuberence. A campaign unlike any other.
I am not convinced any of us are getting an accuate read on the true mindset of Iranians. Communication with family and friends in Iran is thwarted by everyone's fear of the regime.
This is not a third world country, with uneducated masses. Iran is educated, cultured and in touch with the outside world. Being conservative and proud does not preclude one from knowing the difference between right and wrong.
Recently, the regime made a huge mistake in Qom- the negative reaction to their inhumane behavior triggered more than a few students from Tehran to take to the streets. The regime carries on, business as usual, innocuous and indifferent to their citizens. Nobody is falling for it anymore. The IR is not a culture built on trust and brotherhood- rather one of fear and financial dependence.
Cracks within the govt and the military are documented. The pro regime rallies are staged, forced and underwritten. Unless you are sending your emails from within Iran, you can certainly discern the fraud.
Aww, I'm sorry APK. :( I didn't know. :) Thanks for that clarification. No harm done at all. :)
khurshid,
I agree many get caught up in the propoganda on either side. However I would like to point out Scott and Josh numerous times have either not posted something questionable, posted it with a disclaimer, or offered corrections after the fact if they were wrong. That is not propoganda but good journalism. I think the trap you may be falling into is the unilateral belief that anything that comes out of the west is "propoganda." You certaintly have good reason to believe that consider past actions(ie operation AJAX) and current events in Iraq. Their is no doubt western nations are at work trying to influence events in Iran. But, if you paid attention to the Western media and their governments you would have seen they were all in shock this event happened. Even after events unfoiled nations like the US offered almost at best a very muted response that was condemened by human rights organizations around the world. You would think if this big propoganda machine was at work the West would have seen this coming and worked it for all its worth. Yet they didn't and it took stories of killings, rapes, and beatings to elicit a response.
Regarding your media posts:
1) The first video: As I stated in my ealier postl I saw this video and noted it only showed the square. No shots exist showing were it ended. They also used a visual trick, cutting and panning over the same line of people, to give the appearance of an huge line. No doubt a huge amount of people but I have my doubts about millions.
2) Baqer Moin video: You bring up a very good point. In context of the reform movement many have argued that religion is losing its focus and others saying it is not. I happen to believe the Greem Movement is still very much driven by religion. The chants of "God is Great" at night are a perfect example. I would also argue the regime is the one who is trully losing it's religion. Go read the constitution of Iran and pay attention to the section detailing the peoples rights. You will see the rights of the protestors are being violated in direct contradiction to not only law but Sharia itself. The fact remains the people are not trying to throw the whole system out. They just want more democracy and the rights of Iranian law that are currently being denied them.
In summary you sincerely need to ask yourself how much true support does the regime have if they have to go through so much effort to pull off one massive rally? The fact remains they had to "manufacture" this rally because previous attempts failed. The Greens on the other hand can organize bigger rallies, with more frequency, and doing so while they are being beaten, shot at, and itimidated by the regime. Least of all let's not forget it is illegal for the greens to demonstrate. If anything this "show" the regime put on is just yet another example of how little support they have. The demonstration itself was the propoganda don't you get it!! Its propoganda because if the regime had all this support they claim why the need for the rally? The truth is they don't have the support and thus are tyring to paint the illusion they do. Reflect on this quote from Husayn ibn Ali for some perspective:
"Those who worship God for the hope of gaining, they’re not real worshippers, they’re merchants. Those who worship God out of fear (of punishment), they’re slaves. And those who worship God to be grateful towards their creator, they are the free people, and their worship is a real one."
Thx
Bill
josh
it was the same CNN that was singing the tune of Iraq's WMD. where r these wmd of iraq? it is the same cnn that disregards and refuses to report about 1 million dead Iraqis (i million is based on UN report). it is the same cnn that supports mass terror of US forces in Afghanistan and iraq. it is the same cnn that calls hugo chevez a terrorist just because he is against american tyrannic foreign policy. cnn and other media are calling for regime change in Venezuela and Iran. the list carries on....
you are right to say "CNN is neither the reformists nor the Iranian government". CNN would support anyone that US regime support. CNN does the job of "manufacturing consent"(Noam Chomsky) for US regime. For example, CNN supports Kazakhstan regime and ignores the regimes draconian killing of dissidents. why does Cnn does this? Because Kazakh regime is supported by US regime. Former British ambassador to Kazakhstan, Andrew Murray, was fired from his job because of "giving human rights undue attention above British national interest". Andrew showed his firing letter to press. CNN, like other western media, did not report it.
i m surprised you trust cnn. i am sorry to say you are just reading one-sided view. the post by 'Historian' is more in line with ground reality. western media would report things that are in line with western government policy. it is not hard to notice this, the genocide in GAZA was ignored and even supported by western media. they called it Israel's right to defend itself. Even now viva palestine aid convoy cannot get to gaza and western media including cnn does not even report.
Bill
I think you have taking my comment personally. It seems this place expects only like-minded comments. ‘apk’s’ comment on ‘john galt’s’ post is the proof.
I can see you are a fan of josh but I never said josh is some how a lesser being. I was just trying to point out that what he was saying was only based on western media and western media has lied in the past. As you said west is trying to influence things in Iran. In fact west is desperate to bring down Iran regime to get its hand on Iran’s oil and access to important geo-political country.
The links I posted did not have good quality video- that’s true. I even had to pause it several times to read what was on the screen. I looked for the video after ‘Ali’s’ post. I went to jam-e-jam website to see if they have any such video. Just like u I also found it having too many close up shots. Anyway but it did show that there was an areal footage as claimed by Ali.
On Iran’s constitution, I have read it and know what it has. I am a Muslim and know very well what Islam says about justice. I, like all Muslims, know that heavy handling of protesters by Iran regime is not right and is disturbing. But western media is only showing this because it serves western interest. Had Iran government being pro-west like Saudi government than I am 100% sure western media would not have reported the events in Iran. Western media only shows things when it serves their interest. It is more like pick-n-choose sort of thing. Report it when it serves our interest otherwise keep silent. It is also not true that Iran’s media always lies.
One of the thing that is fascinating to me about the green movement is that the over-whelming majority of greens do not know what Mir Hussein Musavi wrote in his letter to guardian council after the election results. Mr musavi never disputed the election result in his letter, instead he was complaining about Ahmadinijad’s attack towards him in the presidential debate. He also complained about vote rigging in Yazd province, but Mr musavi won in yazd. The content of the letter was first brought to my attention by Kaveh Afrasiabi in an interview with Aljazeera. This was in august, if I remember correctly. I will try to find the link and post it so that others can see it. Interestingly western media never talks about this letter.
The point is, all of us should read a broad spectrum of material and not really on western media only.
Regards
khurshid
I must say I have to agree with what Kurshid says about CNN in post 40. The best thing that ever happened to me - a couch potato news junkie - was the advent of Aljazeera English in November 2006. I record CNN INT's domestic politics shows nightly, but I have completely switched over to a main diet of AJE (supplemented by BBC World) for the global news coverage I take in when not surfing the web for the same at my PC. The only international-oriented programming CNN INT has that I recommend are Fareed Zakaria GPS (except for the one time he thoroughly browbeat Prof Saeed Marandi before the latter could even start spewing BS) and the new Amanpour show that started this fall.
Barry, thanks for sharing your rational insights. I concur, we are all observers, the silent majority of Iranians, like people anywhere have yet to heard. I believe the benefit of age and experience tends to make one naturally skeptical and cautious about following the excited herd and unsubstantiated rumors. My analysis, based on living in Iran and the region is that there is a lot of GHOLOV (Farsi was extreme exaggeration, boasting and chest-thumping) similar to the concept of Taarouf in Persian culture.
I would strongly agree that this whole affair will be played out over a long time, like the Chinese Cultural Revolution of the late 60's. There are lot of external factors involved in determining the outcome as well. Iranians and people in the region are very prone to conspiracy theories and any perception of foreign (US, UK or French) can easily alter public opinion in the regime's favour. Being quite familiar with the history, organizational structure, idealogy and combat order of the post 1979 Iranian military, I seriously doubt that there is even a remote chance of munity or coup. There is a lot of wishful thinking, mostly in the diaspora, however, the reality in Iran is different. The whole purspose behind the creation of Sepah(IRGC) was to maintain national security (article 150 of Iranian Consitution), both internal and external threats. They are also bolstered by a few million Baseej (volunteers). The government claims a total of 18 million, but my estimate and most military think-tanks estimate between 6-9 million. Some are very loyal and hardcore. The regular military is mostly conscript and also largely manned by lower middle class and rural poor. Most affluent Iranians, particularly North Tehranis somehow manage to opt out of the national conscription via numerous creative techniques including bribery, going abroad or as a last resort joing a cushy non-combat unit. So even in the military there are a lot of class distinctions which work in the regime's favour. During the eigth year Iran-Iraq war the brunt of the over 450,000 fatal casualties (around one million wounded with 100,000 gas attack victims) were taken by the rural poor and the devout Shia's from South Tehran and other heartland cities. That situation has not changed much.
So in a level-headed and objective anlaysis of the current situation and political realties, I don not think that there is a critical mass for a regime change or the Islamic Republic is its death throes. Far from it, if the regime is backed into a corner and see a mortal threat, only then it will unleash mass violence. I also believe that the opposition is fragmented. with very poor or discredited leadership and no common platform. The regional factors and escalating US quagmires in the region from Yemen to Pakistan also favour the Iranian government. Iran is the regional geo-strategic linchpin and any destabilization can have horrendous consequences for all parties. So I believe that behind all the smoke there may not be a fire after all. Distorted reflections in the Persian Mirror at best.
@khurshid
hey khurshid let us suppose the government brought the same amount of protesters that the opposition ..
ok one group has to risk theit health or their lives and they manage to bring the same number of protesters on the street as the ones who do not have to fair the basidj ...
this is a poor performance for the regime!!!
how do you explain that on ashura day the pro regime protesters were not existent?
why do the regime has to ask for pro-regime demonstrations and anouunce them days before?
How come that pro regime protesters do not show up spontanous?
lets even say only 30% of the iranians are opposed to the regime (i think the majority is against the regime)
is it good for a country if this 30% of its population are forced to shut up, are put in jail and pro regime protesters ask for their death sentence? Which evil western country would do that???
Do you really think in iran all the people are so happy with the regime? How come that there are so many poor people in iran? that ahmadinejad only distributes money weeks before an election? How come that countries without oil like turkey have less poor people than iran?
How come that in a non corrupt (joke of the year) country like iran relatives of ahmadinejad head even the iranian football federation?
How could people like rafsanjani get soo rich in a non corrupt country?
Why are suddenly so many clerics evil. A lot of early supporters of khomeini like karoubi, mousavi are from one day to the other evil?
Don't you see that this "clerical" regime is getting rid of their own clericals? That this clerical regime has done more harm to islam than any other non clerical regime. This regime brought people (inside iran) more up against islam than any regime could done that.
Why is the regime hindering free dom of speech? when they are so good they can let people praise them? People in turkey are in average by far more religous than iranians. real love for religion can only exist when it is not forced on you by a regime, that punishes its own people for everything.
30 years of islamic republic destroyed islam in the hearts of many people. Religion is nothing what should be forced on people (specially not by people who are enjoying the countries oil wealth and drive bulletproof limousines)
If you are caring for religion you should wish that this regime vanishes as soon as possible, people are more religious even in (former) communistic countries
a good government should work for its people. When huge masses are against the regime, then the regime is doing something wrong. Listen and understand but either way the days for this regime are over.
Azadi wa Edalat for the iranian people!!
Countries cannot prosper with the level of turmoil/disruption that exists in Iran. Prosperous countries have voluntary co-operation amongst all sections of their people. Perhaps countries can "exist" and the governing "Regime" maintain "control" and "power" - but they exist in the way that Zimbabwe "exists".
So - is Iran to become the Zimbabwe of the Middle East??
Barry
Iranians like most people in the Middle-East are their own worst enemies and hence the perpetual instability, foreign interventions and intrigues. The US will be stuck in this vortex too as economic and geo-political power shift accelerates to Asia and China.
For those interested in how how the Islamic Republic operates and goes about organizing rallies...you might refer to a Book Called Persian Mirrors by Elaine Sciolino. No I am not promoting her book...here is the scoop...Elaine mentions that prior to any rally, government officials send letters to all government employees, soldiers, villagers etc...gather them in huge stadiums...feed and shelter them overnight and give them banners and bus them from sight to sight and sometimes from city to surrounding cities. Most government employees have to attend...if the do not..some of their privileges and subsidies will be cut and they might lose employment. Most villagers love such luxuries such as meals and buses and hotels...all free of charge...also they get paid equivalent of $20 to attend. Not a bad sum considering that government employee makes about $300 to $500 per month. Hope you get the picture...each rally costs the mullahs about 15 million dollars.
A very fact based analysis. These government sponsored demonstration is nothing new to us. The same story for over 70 years. The same pro-government crowed are the first to turn against the old regime and scrifice themselves for the new.
@ Barry
RE your comments on Iran and Zimbabwe in post 45, what do you make of this? :-)
Iran says ready to offer assistance to Zimbabwe
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90854/6857800.html
Hi Catherine
Yes - I have seen that and was going to post the link - but thought that I should not hog this forum too much!! :)
Difficult to know what to make of it. It looks a bit to me that Iran is desperate for "friends" and will make up to anyone who declares "anti-western" sentiment. You only have to look at the list of their "friends" - many are non-democratic tyrannies. Others are ostensibly democratic - but their Governments are entrenched and are not likely to willingly give up their office if the people turn against them.
Barry
Barry