Iran: How Significant Was the Regime's Rally?

EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers these thoughts, which are also posted on his personal blog:

Today, pro-government Iranians took to streets in Tehran and possibly other cities in a show of support for the Ahmadinejad government and for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A report by CNN spoke of hundreds of thousands of people in Tehran alone and perhaps thousands more in “Tabriz, Shiraz, Arak, Gilan and Sistan-Baluchestan province.”

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According to CNN, protesters chanted slogans against Mir Hossein Mousavi, America, Britain, France, Israel and the Green Movement’s protests on Sunday (Ashura). However, the CNN report while accurate in most respects, failed to mention key facts about the protests, facts that would show their true nature.

For starters, the CNN report and some other media account do not mention that dozens of buses chartered by the Iranian government ran non-stop from villages and suburbs around Tehran and other cities, bringing in government supporters in hordes to the protest venues. The buses began their operation the day before, ensuring the protest looked large enough.

These protesters were then later dispatched to their homes outside Tehran and other cities by the same buses. So what seemed like tens of thousands of Tehranis was in reality a mix of Tehranis and non-Tehranis brought in specifically for the purpose of fooling the world into believing that Tehran and other cities fully support [Supreme Leader] Khamenei and [President] Ahmadinejad.

And while government-run media claimed millions and CNN claimed hundreds of thousands and that Tehran was ‘packed’ with protesters, independent analyses show that the protest in Tehran was composed of no more than 20,000 people. (a larger copy of image below)

Secondly, the reports fail to mention that the protesters were offered free refreshments at the expense of the government to keep them there and to boost their morale. Their banners, slogans, and even the declaration they released denouncing the opposition were written, prepared and handed over to them by the government. Protesters received all their material needs from the government from the minute they boarded the buses to the minute they got back home.

Even so, the enthusiasm that Green Movement supporters show when they are out protesting was non-existent during this protest. People had simply brought their whole families out for a day out on the streets after being prepped up by the government to counter the popular movement that is shaking the core of the Islamic Republic.

And even the government’s own media announced that there were no protests in some of the other large cities. Mashhad, the second largest city, saw almost no response. Neither did Isfahan, the third largest city. And there was no independent confirmation of protests from the cities that the government-run media reported.

Finally, there was no riot police, Basij or IRGC members out with batons, cables, pepper spray, tear ga,s and bullets to disperse the people or stop them from chanting and gathering. Compare this to the millions of people who marched onto streets in June or the hundreds of thousands that marched on Sunday in the face of brutal repression and a government ban on their protests, and you will clearly see the desperate attempts by the Iranian government to make the world believe it has significant support among the populace.

If the government lifts bans on opposition protests, does not cut off telecommunication systems to disrupt planning, does not arrests hundreds and kill dozens, then we’ll see millions out on Iran’s streets every day.

The truth is, if the government did have support among the people, the crowds on Ashura would have been split between the Green Movement and the supporters of the Islamic Republic. On that day, it was an overwhelming show of support for reform and a clear rejection of the Islamic Republic. Plain and simple. The ‘Tehranis’ the government showed the world today were huddled up in small pockets on that day or sitting at home in their villages, watching government propaganda on TV.

Protests like today’s may make the government feel a bit less insecure about its prospects of survival, but it is in no way going to change the resolve of the Iranian people or the perception of the government’s brutality and weakness in the minds of foreigners.

Comments

[Bill]

khurshid,

Thank you for your response. I apologize if you took my post as a personal attack on you. That was not my intention. I was debating you on the points you made and the error I made was using words like "don't you get it." Should not have done that--sorry! I do agree western media is biased but the difference between western media and Iran is who they serve. In Iran it is the government and in the US it is the "dollar." Western media can only survive if it generates a profit and they do that by getting people to read or view their work. Controversy and conflict sells newspapers! It is not perfect but it clearly says they are not motiavated by a central goal to bring down another state. However, many overlook the biggest reason why Iran is big topic in the west--it is the whole concept of freedom!

If you ever get a chance read up on the founding of the US. In doing so it will become clear why so many westerners are fascinated by the emerging freedom movements in Iran. We are fascinated because it is a reflection of what our ancestors fought so hard for. We don't wish Iran ill but instead want it to be free and ruled by the people. Yes it is ironic that we focus on Iran respective to other dictator states(ie Saudia Arabia) but the difference is Iran has a freedom movement. On the Saudis, I think we would have a better chance of the Pope becoming a Muslim than a freedom movement coming about in Saudia Arabia. Personally I do not like that state simply because they are the root source for a majority of the worlds worst extremists. Hopefully one day the US will realize the Saudis are not our friends but just using us to force their warped ideology on the world.

On your point on oil that would have been true 60 years ago but not today. Everyone says the US is trying to grab resources eveywhere, but why then do we bother to pay over a trillion dollars each year for the oil when we could steal it? After all we have the military might to do it. Iraq was an evil war but it was not about the oil but about control. That control was centered around ensuring the viabilty of the regions energy resources. The US can't run without oil.

In summary I would only ask you to put aside the standard "its the west out to get us." Instead go talk to someone in the green movement and find out why they are protesting. Then compare those things they are fighting for with the rights people have in the West. When you do that you will see why the people, governments, and the media of the west is fascinated with Iran. I also do not think Iranian press lies all the time--I just think they do it quite often respective to the Green movement. The arrested journalists, media censorship, closed papers, cover ups of deaths/rapes, and overall oppression clearly shows they do lie which is what I call propoganda. Look beyond the propoganda and you will see millions of Americans like me that do not wish your destruction but instead want to see you and the people of Iran living free. It may sound weird but we do actually care about you and the people of Iran's well being! All the best to you!

Thx
Bill