Iran's Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
Sunday, December 6, 2009 at 7:30 
Here is why the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) are important.They are unlikely to bring the Ahmadinejad Government to its knees or prompt the Supreme Leader to pack his bags. They will not threaten to topple the Islamic Republic, which after all is not what the majority of protesters want. They will not even get a short-term response on critical issues such as adherence to the Constitution, the legal redress of the abuse of detainees, or any admission that the election of June 2009 was flawed, let alone rigged.
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However, a mass of demonstrators on the streets on 16 December --- not necessarily in one place, since it will be a priority of the security forces to prevent a single grouping that can dominate media coverage and draw in even more protestors --- will hold open and even create political "space". And it is "space" that will ensure the Ahmadinejad Government cannot be assured of legitimacy.
I am not sure that this has been appreciated, even by dedicated watchers of the Green Movement. The marches of 13 Aban (4 November) were an important indicator that the marathon of dissent would continue. But then it was a five-week stretch to 16 Azar, and inevitably doubts and debates crept in. Where was the leadership of the movement, given apparent uncertainty and caution of key figures, and did that matter if it was the "people" that were generating the Green Wave? Were activists considering a move to violent methods and could this be checked? What does this Movement seek?
This examination was inevitable. It is impossible to sustain the energy of a Qods Day or 13 Aban, so breath has to be drawn, thoughts collected, plans laid. At the same time, however, the Government was making its own move on "space", closing off the possibility that the Movement(s) --- which is not pursuing a single aim, is not led by a single person, and is not a single groups --- could not re-appear on 16 Azar to present its variety of objectives, frustrations, anger, hopes. So it has tried to break the protest through detentions of students leaders and threats against politicians from Mousavi to Karoubi to Rafsanjani while promoting the "legitimate" President through his world tour and declarations of authority at home. "Western" media have followed this story line: in the last 48 hours, The Wall Street Journal has gravely intoned, "Iranian Crackdown Goes Global", while The Guardian of London has shaken its head ruefully, "Iran opposition remains defiant but struggles to keep up protests". That narrative has prevented recognition of the long-term persistence of the Green opposition: one of the best US journalists admitted via Twitter yesterday, "Something I didn't know: Massive student protests in Iran scheduled for 12/7."
Do not be fooled. All of this doubt, even doom-saying is a mere waving of pens before the vital moment on Monday.
For if the thousands and tens of thousands emerge on the streets of Tehran and other cities, if news --- despite all the efforts of the Iranian Government --- comes out through blogs and Twitter and YouTube and e-mails, then the immediate objective will have been accomplished. The President has not been acclaimed, accepted, or even tolerated. The "space" has been re-opened for contests not only from outside the Iranian establishment, but from within it.
Consider two incidents in recent days. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, quieted in recent weeks but ever-stirring, has spoken on at least two occasions this week of the grave damage being done because of political disunity and the Government's attempted repression. Yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani renewed his assault on an unnamed but all-too-obvious Presidential foe:
Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.
The key to success is that we should not allow certain (persons) abuse the situation and put the people against each other by dividing them.
This is not in any way to argue that a Rafsanjani or Larijani are leading the Green Movement(s), let alone that they should be endorsed as "unity" candidates to replace Ahmadinejad. Nor is the reverse true: that Larijani and Rafsanjani are acting out of sympathy for the opposition rather than their own political interests. It does mean, however, that the President and his allies cannot rest assured of legitimacy.
And that, as an immediate, emotional, powerful symbol, is what a large turnout on 16 Azar will represent. Six months and the demands for recognition, for justice, and for change have not gone away. The election cannot be re-run but, for many, Ahmadinejad is not their leader, the Revolutionary Guard is not their protector, the judges are not their arbitrators, the legislators are not their spokesmen.
16 Azar will not be an endpoint, the termination of a system or even a President. It could be another tall monument, however, on a path of protest that cannot be ended by oppression, fatigue, or uncertainty.
Three Two Days to Go.
Reader Comments (11)
Interesting read. But if I would have to judge from what I have been hearing in my direct surroundings, I would think that most people would have very little problem with the end of the Islamic Republic. Until recently, I would have thought otherwise because the hope for reform was widespread. But I think at this stage a large portion (possibly even a majority) of people no longer believe reform is possible. To make things worse, the current situation is like a vicious circle: the regime can't relax its grip because the people might use any freedom to topple it and as long as the regime doesn't relax its grip, the discontent will not subdue.
AZ
Are you joking ?? to be leader, you need a quiet atmospher to run a country ! they are not the leaders of ghosts (there was nobody in Ispahan to welcome AN except imam 12 and the halo), the majority of the iranians are against them; In this current situation, it's not possible for them to be successful even in the global negociations because they have no legitimity even among their own people. They are obliged , as soon as to give up and relax their merciless grip !!!!
Aren't we in agreement then..?
I am afraid that we are not !
Then you are saying that the majority of Iranians do want the current regime?
AZ
" But I think at this stage a large portion (possibly even a majority) of people no longer believe reform is possible."
In fact I didn't understand what you would mean; I have thought that you alleged that the iranian people are so hopeless that they don't believe in any reform in the country and they will stop their resistance because of the crackdown and what has happened with the dissenters ! and I agree with you if the meaning of your comment was : it's too "late" to reform and now they want the complete removal of the "islamic" regime ; it's one of the possibilities; but as you see, in the country, everybody , even in the opposition , is tied to the religion so the other possibility is the separation of the religion from the governance, which is a " reform" of the current situation !
Please forgive me for this misunderstanding
No problem.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125978649644673331.html?mod=WSJ_hp_us_mostpop_read
I don't know if this has been seen : threats on mobile phones of iranians diaspora
Thanks, AZ, for your analysis. We may still have a long way to go, but fundamental changes are inevitable.
The chief of Tehran's IRGC has announced that pasdars will offer flowers to students on 16 Azar: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10252
And then: "We will send them with caravans to manoeuvre areas to show them our valiant combattants." Does he mean Camp Kahrizak?
SARDAR NAGHDI (Commander in Chief of the Revolutionary Guard Sepah) shot Hojatola Behrooz of the Tehran Traffic Organisation at a meeting last week when the latter said it was impossible to guarantee that he could keep the streets clear of cars on 16 azar! Behrooz is in a bad way in hospital after receiving this bullet to his leg! - That's how concerned he is about the protests on the streets tomorrow. Flowers being handed out Mr Naghdi -- you can fool some of the people, some of the time, but the people no longer believe you and the people DEMAND change. Freedom and Democracy will come to Iran - maybe not on 16 azar but soon. Tomorrow will bring the "green" movement one step closer. I just hope with all my heart that few are hurt in the struggle. However, the violence displayed by the Security Forces on 13 aban (4 November) shows that the reports coming from inside Iran, that warnings of harsh reprisals, are likely to be true. This Regime will topple. let's all hope that its sooner rather than later! FREE IRAN.
Tricia, your last few sentences are spot on! 'This Regime WILL topple.'
I'm fairly sure they themselves are terrified at the loss of power, some are probably sticking their heads in the sand - but when you get to a situation that the majority of your people believe the opposite of what you tell them, then your time is very short.