This Weekend on EA (12/13 December)

Iran: Tension and rumours grew throughout Saturday and continued Sunday. See here for  details including reports on the Supreme Leader's speech Sunday morning and here for EA's special analysis from Scott Lucas and Mr Smith where we quesion whether this was a final warning for "the greens". There's more on the  furore over the alleged burning of Imam Khomeini's picture, stirred by pro-Government media - including our analysis of the situation.

There's a new collection of videos of Sunday protests at Iran universities. Saturday's footage.

Our worst "analysis" of the weekend (so far!) award went to Abbas Barzegar for his "conclusion  pulled down from the sky" in Saturday's UK Guardian newspaper.

Arrests and sentences : Jail terms were handed down for nine students from Shiraz University for their part in 13 Aban (4 November) protests.  A website has posted the names of 34 protestors arrested on 16 Azar (7 December).

A special report linking to an article in the Wall Street Journal, commended to us by several readers, on Iranians leaving the country amid the post-election conflict and possible Government measures against them.

On the nuclear front, Foreign Minister Mottaki - speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain - took time out to speak about Iran's plans on uranium enrichment. A tweeter quoted him - "Iran would be happy to attend another meeting with the 5+1 powers".

More than $2 billion of Iranian assets was frozen last year  in Citigroup accounts by secret order of a federal court in NY City in what may be the biggest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic Revolution.

The arrest of Majid Tavakoli, and the We are Tavakoli campaign - started on Facebook -  has been picked up by international print and broadcast media;   Josh Shahryrar has posted an "Ode to Majid Tavokoli".

Middle East: There's growing concern over the Lebanese-American arms deal.  A special report from Ali Yeniduya asks whether the Israeli settlers' conflict with the Palestinians is escalating? Looks like Israel's focusing on maintainin an open channel to Ankara, despite recent tensions.

UK/Israel: We ask - did the UK Government aid a boycott of Israeli products?

USA: President Obama has put out his Hanukkah message.

As always, all the latest news can be found in our liveblog.

Israel: Growing Concern over Lebanese-American Arms Deal

Israeli officials worry that the arms sale agreement between Lebanon and the United States, made during Lebanese President Michel Suleiman's visit to Washington this week, might strengthen Hezbollah. Under the bargain, the US will provide the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with 12 Raven unmanned reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft in the coming months.

Israel is concerned that the Lebanese national unity government has allowed Hezbollah to keep its weapons. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Hizbullah was becoming the "real Lebanese army" as the dominant force in Lebanon. This should be aligned with Netanyahu's past warnings that the Lebanese government is responsible for any rocket attack directed against Israel from Lebanon.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Plays "Rope-a-Dope" with Turkey

It appears that Israel is focusing on maintaining an open channel to Ankara, despite recent tensions. Foreign Ministry spokesman Yossi Levy has stated that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent criticisms of Israel are merely political manoeuvre:

The impression [in Israel] is that Turkey's prime minister is constantly attacking Israel and working to bring Turkey closer to the extreme wing of the Middle East.

The string of statements [by Erdogan] and the line he has consistently taken bring us to the conclusion that this is a strategic move.

Turkey: Erdogan Denies Airspace for Any Israel Operations Against Iran

However, beyond the Israeli "keep calm" is a warning that Erdogan is undermining Turkey's interests:

Erdogan is trying to have it all - to satisfy the Islamist appetite of his voting bloc and turn extremist, but also to preserve the stature of Turkey as a moderate Western state that resolves regional conflicts. But it's clear that these two goals contradict each other.

Turkey should be as worried as Israel about the dangers of Iranian nuclear weaponization, because it would directly threaten Turkey's regional and international standing in the long term.

So a bit of "rope-a-dope" from Israel: don't turn Erdogan's public statements into an all-out battle but keep jabbing in the hope that Ankara will see the "real" threats and thus mend fences with Tel Aviv.

Israel-Palestine: Settlers' Conflict with Palestinians Escalating?

Tension in the West Bank between Israeli settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank appears to be rising. On Friday, settlers vandalized and set fire to a mosque in a Palestinian village in the village of Yasuf, south of Nablus. The attackers left messages such as "Price tag - greetings from Effi" and "We will burn the lot of you" before escaping.

Palestinian villagers and Israeli security forces clashed after the incident, and the Palestinian Authority criticised the Israeli Government even though Israeli officials condemned the mosque assault.

Buying Power: Did UK Government Just Aid A Boycott of Israeli Products?
President Obama’s Hanukkah Message

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, "This is an extremist act geared toward harming the government's efforts to advance the political process for the sake of Israel's future." Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the PA, responded, "The torching of the mosque in Yasuf is a despicable crime, and the settlers are behaving with brutality. The settlers' unruly behavior must be stopped."

The U.S. State Department said: "We condemn this attack in the strongest terms and call for the perpetrators to be brought to justice."

Buying Power: Did UK Government Just Aid A Boycott of Israeli Products?

The British government has issued an official recommendation urging UK businesses to pay attention to whether any product from the West Bank is produced by Israeli settlers or Palestinians. Labeling a product from a settlement as "manufactured in Israel" will be considered misleading of the consumer.

Israel's Foreign Ministry official Yossi Levy criticized the move on Thursday: "This is a capitulation of the British government to the Palestinian and pro-Palestinian organizations. This only harms the Middle East peace process, and will hinder Israel's and the world's efforts to renew the diplomatic process at such a critical stage, and that is doubly disappointing." In response, the British embassy in Israel issued a statement: "This is a recommendation, not a binding order. The British government is opposed to any kind of boycott of Israel."

Hmm.... Despite the British Government's denial, the effect is both a message to British businesses --- would the label "manufactured in Israel" on a West Bank product be considered a criminal offense? --- and an aid to any consumer who boycotts Israeli products or those produced by Israeli settlers.

Is this just good business practice, attracting Muslim consumers who want the assurance of Palestinian production? Or is this more than an economic "clarification", putting political pressure on Israel? part of scheduled pressure on Israeli decision-makers?