The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar

2150 GMT: To end the day, we've posted a review by Josh Shahryar of the day's events.

2100 GMT: The Assault on Zahra Rahnavard. More on the alleged attack on Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife this afternoon at Tehran University: Persian2English has an English summary.

NEW Iran’s 16 Azar: A Review of the Day’s Events Throughout the Country
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 2nd Set (7 December)
NEW Iran’s 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis & Questions for the Green Movement
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
NEW 16 Azar Opinion: “Iran’s Voice Will Be Heard”
NEW 16 Azar Special: A Letter from Inside Iran
Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” and “Death to Dictator” Chants (6 December)
Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”
Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (6 December)
Iran Document: Mousavi Statement on 16 Azar and the Student Movement (6 December)
Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go

2055 GMT: Britain Leads, Will US Follow? British Foreign Minister David Miliband has taken notice of today's events in a statement:

I share the concern of many people about the use of force to stifle demonstrations on Students' Day. This follows the large scale abuses of human rights that have taken place since the presidential elections on 12 June.

Freedom of speech and freedom of political expression are fundamental values which all governments should respect. We look to the Iranian authorities to up-hold the freedoms of their own citizens, not stifle them.

Will Britain's allies in Washington also issue a declaration of concern over "human rights"?

1935 GMT: Mediawatch. Hat-tip to The New York Times, with reporters Nazila Fathi (from Toronto) and Robert Worth (from Beirut) providing a good overview of the events today.

And a thumbs-down to The Daily Telegraph for unnecessarily provocative "news". Even if the claim that police fired "warning shots" is true, the headline, "Iranian police shoot at unarmed protesters during Tehran demonstrations", is a distortion beyond accuracy and common sense.

1925 GMT: Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, is reporting that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, a faculty member at Tehran University, was physically attacked by a group of unknown women on the campus.

1910 GMT: Press TV Politics. Looks like those at the state outlet who are not so anti-opposition have tinkered with the coverage of today's events. The opening paragraph of the story that we reported earlier (1730 GMT) emphasized that the National Student Day had been "hijacked" by "anti-government demonstrations...foiled thanks to the presence of anti-riot forces".

This is the less provocative update: "Authorities on Monday arrested a number of people who damaged public property as opposition protesters and students staged rallies on Student Day in Iran, reports say."

1900 GMT: Back from an academic break. Thanks to TN McLaughlin for keeping an eye on developments. Just catching up with latest news.

1730 GMT: We've just posted the latest videos from Tabriz and and Najaf Abad universities at our latest video page.

1700 GMT: Scott Lucas "has left the building" for a couple of hours and the site is being watched over by EA's new team member, TN McLaughlin.

1633 GMT: Urgent --- Tavakoli Detention. An EA contact confirms the arrest today of Majid Tavakoli, a leader of the Amir Kabir University student movement. Tavakoli was also arrested and injured in detention in 2007.

1623 GMT: More from an EA source inside Iran:

I'm gonna check the streets, Haft-e Tir, and Ferdowsi before going home!

Right now I am getting this news from the students at the University of Tehran. People are pouring into the streets gradually as they are leaving their work, and more protesters are going to Enghelab Sq. Students leaving the university and ordinary people ARE joining them!

1615 GMT: Must-See Story of Day. It comes from none other than Iranian state media Press TV, who have summarised the significance of 16 Azar:

Students in Iran gathered to commemorate the national Student Day as reports suggest a number of anti-government protesters have attempted to hijack the occasion....

The occasion...provided opposition protesters with an opportunity to stage anti-government demonstrations. However, their efforts were foiled thanks to the presence of anti-riot forces in several parts of the capital....

The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that police arrested a number of the rioters who set on fire trash bins. The news agency added that a group of rioters wearing green clothes destroyed the Amir Kabir University's entrance gate on Vali Asr street and attacked the students inside the campus. The rioters, IRNA said, also tore down the security station inside the university. They also threw rocks at a bank on campus. The report added that students in return chanted slogans, calling the rioters "traitors."

We have written Press TV to confirm who and where were the students who protested for the Government today, rather than "hijacking" the occasion. So far, no reply.

1555 GMT: Was Rafsanjani's Daughter at Rally Today? Chatter has persisted throughout the day that Faezeh Hashemi, daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and a prominent activist, was at a university rally in Tehran. We've posted video which claims to be of Hashemi today.

1545 GMT: Curious. One of the most active sites in the post-election discussion, Revolutionary Road, has disappeared.

1510 GMT: Leaders Who Have Spoken (Kind Of): The one prominent Green Movement figure who is in the media today is Mehdi Karroubi, but it is in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde, carried out before 16 Azar. The soundbites, as put out by Agence France Presse, are pretty bland and point towards the theme of "unity":

The solution to arrive at reconciliation is tolerance and acceptance of criticism. We need to work to restore the trust between the authorities and the people. Repression is not at all the solution, neither today nor tomorrow.

Mir Hossein Mousavi's intervention is with an Iranian website, his own Kalemeh, condemning the authorities:

You fight people on the streets, but you are constantly losing your dignity in people’s minds. Even if you silence all the universities, what are you going to do with the society?

1500 GMT: Observations That Make You Go Hmmm.... "No major reformist leader was present during the protests."

1410 GMT: Add Khaje Nasir and possibly Hamedan Universities to the list of locations of protests. Hamedan has been largely free of protests up to now.

One interesting notes: demonstrators in clips in our videos have been waving Iranian flags stripped of the Islamic "coat of arms" in the centre.

1330 GMT: We've just posted a second set of videos of demonstrations from across Iran. Meanwhile, there is confirmation of protests at Azad University in Tehran and Azad University in Arak City.

1250 GMT: Protests in Isfahan confirmed.

1245 GMT: First pictures of large gatherings outside the Universities:







1220 GMT: Protest at Kermanshah University is now confirmed. Heavy clashes near Tehran University, with reports of beatings.

1210 GMT: We've posted an interim analysis from our Mr Smith, asking a couple of important questions about today's protests.

1205 GMT: More from our inside source in Tehran (see 1145 GMT):

All Radios are blocked, and there is no internet connection around University of Tehran.

At the beginning of the Taleghani St. there were - and still are - at least 10 totally BLACK buses and vans, and some vehicles that carried the guard-rails in order to block the streets, but the Buses are not EMPTY! They are full of riot forces! And there is a special van right in front of the eastern gate of the uni full of women commandos to catch the women [protesters.

1200 GMT: A picture has been posted of the demonstration at the Iran University of Science and Technology.

1145 GMT: This in from a source inside Iran:

I've been at University of Tehran since 8:00 this morning and so far there were
only a handful of clashes between the students and security forces.

University of Tehran, UNDER HEAVY CONTROL: The plain cloths forces are in the university and are controlling all gates of the University. The Uni of THR is surrounded by the security forces. They are at all the streets close to the Uni of THR, Enghelab Sq., Qods St., Vesal and Taleghani St.

There are a bunch of at least 50 security forces at every corner of all junctions close to Uni. The Valiasr-Taleghani, Vesal-Taleghani, Enghelab Valiasr Junctions. The Traffic Police doesn’t allow any car to stop even for a second in Valiasr and Taleghani St.

Student of the Uni of THR gathered in front of the Western Gate of the Uni and were chanting "Death to Khameneie and Death to Dictator", where security police attacked them and spread them soon. Uni of THR is under HEAVY control and the Plain Cloths forces with their radios are controlling every gate of the Uni.

1120 GMT: First picture of protest at Elm-o-Sanat University.

1105 GMT: Take That! Al Jazeera English, which has been struggling to report from Iran, just led with video of the Tehran University demonstration and the voiceover, "The Pictures the Government Didn't Want You to See".

1100 GMT: Confirmed. Tear gas used in at least two locations in Tehran.

And pictures are up indicating the size of the gathering at Sharif University.

1055 GMT: Catching Up with Protests. After posting a series of videos, here is our view: Protests in Tehran at Tehran Uni, Amir Kabir University, Sharif University, with clashes at Vali-e Asr. Protests outside Tehran at Mashhad University and Shiraz University, although the latter appears to be relatively small (100s rather than 1000s) at this point.

1015 GMT: This in from an EA correspondent with excellent links inside Iran:

"The number of students is increasing by the minute. There are a great number of plainclothes officers present at this rally. Through raising their hands and giving the victory sign, and by presenting the symbols of the green movement, the students are circulating in and around the university.

The chants are 'Down with the Demagogues', 'Mahmoud the traitor, You have destroyed us and the soil of this country, You have killed the country's youth, God is Great, God is Great…'

There are clashes between students and guards standing outside of the university at Vali-Asr. Some photographers and cameraman are taking pictures and filming in order to identify the students. According to the news, there are buses parked at the Somaie Park Street to transfer the arrested students.

There is an organized group of Basijis moving towards the Vali-asr gate. This group includes plain-clothes officers and a small number of university Basij and has clashed with green students."

1005 GMT: Claimed picture of gathering at Amir Kabir University



0949 GMT: First article from a major US newspaper (as opposed to wire service report) --- Borzou Daragahi in the Los Angeles Times, "Students, security forces face off in Tehran".

0945 GMT: We are treating this report, from Josh Shahryar, as confirmed. Two women have been arrested near Tehran University, while 30 buses have brought security forces to the area.

0940 GMT: Unconfirmed but Important? We are being flooded with reports, from good sources, which we are trying to verify. Here goes:

Students gathering in large numbers at Amir Kabir University in Tehran, possibly clashing with security forces, and at Tehran University. 1000 students at Shiraz University.

Clashes at Enghelab Square near Tehran University. Chants of "Mousavi is an excuse, the entire regime is the target".

0935 GMT: We've posted the first videos of the day, the gathering of students at Sharif University in Tehran.

0855 GMT: The First Reliable Snapshot? Rah-e-Sabz, the reformist website, reports that all quiet so far in Tehran with no violence. Cellphones have been cut off.

0845 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a source: "Pockets of crowds chanting 'God is Great' along Revolution [Enghelab] Ave near Tehran University".

0825 GMT: Reports are coming in of clashes and "beatings" by security forces, both via Twitter and ePersian Radio.

In other post-June marches, there has been a pattern where these reports emerge early in the day. On occasions, they have proven to be true; on others (such as the gathering in front of the Iranian Parliament in June), they have been exaggerated.

So, for now, we are treating all of these as unconfirmed and will not post until we have reliable source for confirmation.

0815 GMT: Report - "School of Veterinary Studies on Gharib Street, Tehran also surrounded and occupied by police"

0755 GMT: Report - sounds of protest being heard from inside Sharif University in Tehran.

0735 GMT: Report that Tabriz University surrounded by security.

0730 GMT: More photos appear to verify the security presence around Tehran University.

0725 GMT: Going to Be a Long Day. With the security clampdown around Tehran University, protest routes have been revised. The first "official" marches will begin about 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT).

0715 GMT: First photo from today in Tehran, if authentic, verifies the security presence around Tehran University (see 0600 GMT). There are forces on motorcyles and a white screen to prevent people from outside seeing into the University.



0700 GMT: "Modarres Highway and the Abbas Abad and North Mofatteh intersections have been quiet. Motorcyclists and plain-clothes officers can be seen in the surrounding streets."

0635 GMT: Reuters is the first "Western" media outlet to pick up on today's events: "Iranian police surround university to prevent protest".

Reports that G-mail, Ultrasurf, and Freegate are NOT working inside Iran.

0630 GMT: "The situation around Karim Khan Bridge is normal, and no one has so far witnessed the security forces and the anti-riot police in large numbers. However, the presence of plain-clothes officers has been quite noticeable."

0615 GMT: Mediawatch. CNN International TV has run a 60-second overview "Dissent in Iran", with the country "bracing for more student protests" and a Government crack-down. Don't expect much soon from the station, however, as it is struggling for information and sources; its Twitter feed declares, "Monitoring all information from Iran today on possble protests but being very careful as there"s confusion about."

The BBC has issued an open call for information from anyone inside Iran.

Andrew Sullivan, who provided excellent live-blog coverage early in the crisis, has promised to return today, but as he is writing from the US, his "Daily Dish" will swing into action around 1200 GMT.

0600 GMT: We're preparing for the day. A full English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on 16 Azar and the student movement will soon be posted, there is video of last night's rooftop "Allahu Akhbar" protests, and we have published a letter from an Iranian who recently returned to the country. We also have an analysis of the significance of today's event and an opinion from Iran News Now, "Why the Green Movement Will Prevail".

First reports indicate "all sidewalks around Tehran University occupied by security forces and main gates covered by scaffold"; Sharif University also said to be surrounded by security. There is a report of "Basij militia and plain-clothes officers concentrated around the following streets: Fatemi, Karagar, and Enghelab". Internet traiffic is very slow"

The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime

1910 GMT: Top Reformist Back in Jail. Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has gone back to Evin Prison after a 10-day temporary release. Nabavi, who is appealing a six-year jail sentence, refused to renounce political activity and was thus denied freedom until his case was resolved. He has been seriously ill and was in hospital during his release.

1740 GMT: Confirming the Disruption. It's not surprising that the regime has moving to choke off Monday's demonstrations by cutting off Internet services today. It does take me aback that "sources" in the regime have confirmed "the decision of the authorities" (to expose the activities of the Government? to intimidate the opposition?).

1710 GMT: Arresting the Mothers of Martyrs. Regular EA readers may recall that each Saturday mothers of those killed and detained in post-election conflict, joined by sympathisers, march in Tehran's Laleh Park. We've been watching reports of clashes at today's demonstration but have not waited for confirmation before posting. This is the latest from a reliable Iranian activist:

Before 5 p.m. today unmarked vans parked along side all streets around Laleh Park with 3-4 agents inside. Around Abnama Square there were police cars...and unmarked vans with tinted windows. Five or six younger women were arrested and taken by the unmarked vans to an undisclosed location. Fifteen or sixteen other women were arrested. Also three men were arrested & taken away.

1405 GMT: Josh Shahryar's Green Brief 74, covering the last 24 hours of developments in Iran, is now out.

NEW Iran: Will Israel Get An International Embargo?
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: Two Days to Go
The Latest from Iran (4 December): The Weekend Before

1400 GMT: Disrupting 16 Azar. Activists report that the Internet, and services like Google Mail, are running very slowly inside Iran.

1120 GMT: Pick a Number, Any Number. Maybe the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akhbar Salehi, looked at the statements from other Iranian and US officials (see 0940 GMT) and thought that he should raise his game. So he has declared that even the 10 new enrichment plants declared by the Cabinet last week aren't enough: "To provide fuel for our nuclear power plants, we need to have 20 uranium enrichment plants."

0940 GMT: Nuclear Postures. Meanwhile, both Iran and the US are talking tough in the suspended nuclear engagement. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani continues to use the issue to boost his profile, telling reporters Friday night: "Why does the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) continue to make such a fuss over Iran's enrichment activities despite knowing its peaceful purposes? The answer is quite simple really; all they want and seek to do is to deceive Iran and force it to readily accept whatever offer they put forward."

In Washington, the faction of the Obama Administration that favours a move towards sanctions found their own willing reporters, saying that they would move in early January for a new round of United Nations sanctions. Significantly, the leaking official said that the package might not only consist of "smart" sanctions aimed at the Revolutionary Guard, but also restrictions on Iran's petroleum industry. At the same time, the official betrayed an Administration caught between those in Congress pressing for sweeping sanctions and the difficulties of getting other countries to agree: "We are looking to find what everyone can agree will be most effective and have the least impact on the Iranian people."

0855 GMT: We've posted the latest statement of Mehdi Karroubi, issued yesterday, calling for a response to extremism.

0645 GMT: A distinct feeling of lull before "How Big a Storm?". Preparations for the demonstrations of  16 Azar (7 December) continue to circulate, but there is little open movement coming out of the Iranian weekend.

For now the space is filled by tales of President Ahmadinejad and other regime actors, tales meant to be very, very serious but somehow prompting a smile. There was Ayatollah Jannati on Friday effectively admitting, even as the Tehran Revolutionary Guard commander was saying "Nothing to worry about here", that the Government was fretting about the numbers who might hit the streets on Monday. Make no mistake, Jannati warned, you are betraying Islam and working for the Americans --- even as only a few Americans inside and outside the Government were figuring out that something might be happening on Monday.

Then there was the President laying it down to the West/Israel:

Despite pressure, sanctions and threats, Iran is…quiet, victorious and dear. All thought that pressure of bullying powers will lead to the defeat of the Iranian nation. During the post-election events, certain powers unanimously claimed that they can extract concessions from Iranians.

However, the Iranian nation proved that, in reality, enemies can do nothing....If the Zionist regime and its masters join forces, still they cannot do a damn thing....Even if bullying powers stay in the region for another 50 years, they will have no option but to leave the region with humiliation and in vain.

It is obvious that Ahmadinejad is going out of his way to make no reference whatsoever to the opposition within, as opposed to outside, his country. Still the temptation grows, just like when you're watching a horror film or a British pantomime, to shout out, "Mr President, Look Behind You".

Maybe the best tale moving around the Internet, however, concerns Ahmadinejad's speech earlier this week in Isfahan. Even though the crowd was smaller than expected, the President apparently laid it on thick about his valiant defense against the enemy of Washington. He even revealed the true intention of US foreign policy for the last 30 years.

Let it be known that, from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, the US Government has been dedicated to preventing the return of the 12th Imam of Shi'a Islam.

Afghanistan Special: Josh Shahryar on the Obama Not-So-Grand Plan

NOTE: The second part of Scott Lucas's "Gut Reaction" to the Obama speech, covering the policy in Pakistan, will now appear on Saturday.

Finally Barack Obama made up his mind about sending more troops to Afghanistan? If so, it's a vague resolution: the only specifics were that there would be 30,000+ more troops sent to fight the Taliban and troop withdrawal would start in 2011.

This is an announcement that comes up short in so many ways. Fighting the Taliban shoud not be the only worry for the US and the West. There are a wide range of issues that are jeopardizing security, stability, and democracy in Afghanistan, but none of those issues were discussed with even the vaguest of details.

A Gut Reaction to Obama’s Afghanistan-Pakistan Speech: The Halfway House of The Long War (Part 1)

Afghanistan may be a failure inherited by Obama from former President George W. Bush, but 10 months is enough to forget President Bush’s flaws for a moment and start scrutinizing President Obama’s policies. After those 10 months, the best that we get out of Obama is that he’s simply going to press ahead --- there has been no major shift in policy.

The most important of the issues ignored by Obama is the presence of warlords in the Afghan government, as their continued exercise of authority has made the Afghan populace disillusioned with the West’s approach to their troubles. There's the far-from-minor issue of Afghanistan turning into a narco-state. And Obama’s plan outlines little on how the US is going to deal with Pakistan’s continued sloth in stopping Taliban militants engaging in cross-border raids.

Corruption has become so widespread that hardly anything gets done in Afghanistan without being first tainted with a side-deal. The most prominent recent example is the serious allegations against the Minister of Mines and Industries, who reportedly received millions from China to grant them access to one of Afghanistan’s largest copper mines. There’s the challenge of making Afghanistan a state that is viable and not just heavily dependent on foreign aid. The trickle of money from the West, which will dry up sooner or later, and the sale of opium are propping up the country. Add to that astronomical unemployment, and you have a catastrophe in the making.

None of the above is addressed in a satisfactory manner in the Obama plan. In essence, this is simply a make-over of Bush’s policy in Iraq – a policy that might have succeeded there but might completely fail in Afghanistan. For, without addressing the above issues, even a million US troops will do little to help the situation.

Worse, Obama's not-so-grand package is wrapped in the announcement that troops would start to be flown back in 2011. This gives the resilient Taliban a simple timetable to follow. They’ve kept fighting for eight years, so no difficulty for them to sit back for two years and then start fighting full-force again .

On what basis is Obama going to bring the troops back? What makes him so sure that the war would be won or even stabilized by 2011? None of these questions were answered by the President, his plan, or his associates.

This is not the Iraq War. The people are different, their needs are different, and their problems are different. For all his rhetoric of change, Obama seems to really lack an understanding of what it really means here. And without that understanding, this war will continue to escalate and take more Afghan and American lives.