Israel & Turkey: Time to Repair Relations?

Relations between Tel-Aviv and Ankara are set to get back on track after a series of statements blaming each other since Israel's Gaza offensive a year ago. Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced Thursday that he had accepted an invitation to visit Turkey in January. Barak received the invitation from Turkey's envoy to Israel, Ahmet Oguz Çelikkol.

Barak said Israel's relations with Turkey were of "strategic importance" and added, "Turkey is a key and important player in the region in reference to Israel's relations with its neighbors. Relations with Turkey are important on many different levels."

Israel: Ruling Out Syrian Talks and Turkish Mediation?

Palestine Inside Line: Hamas Moves to "Liberation" of West Bank from Abbas and Israel

On Monday afternoon, during the celebration of Hamas's 22nd anniversary, Gazan Prime Minister Ismail Haniya said that gaining control of the Gaza Strip was "just a step toward liberating all of Palestine".



Criticising Israel, the Palestinian Authority and the Obama Administration, Haniya said, "This movement liberated the Gaza Strip with the help of the militant factions. Brothers and sisters, we will not be satisfied with Gaza. Hamas looks toward the whole of Palestine."

Palestine Inside Line: Abbas Term Extended Indefinitely
Israel-Palestine Analysis: Did Britain Just Endorse Israel’s “Moral” War in Gaza?

This is not the end of the "liberation" story. A day before the celebration in the Gaza Strip, Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal was in Tehran. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praised the "resistance" of Hamas and welcomed the "liberation project of the Palestinian lands from Israel". Ahmadinejad said:

Today Palestine is the symbol of the global front of freedom-seekers and resistance. The government and the people of Iran will always stand by the Palestinian resistance and the Palestinian people. Palestinians will continue resistance against Israel until their land is liberated.

And Hamas was quick to seize on an opportunity to claim its leadership of all of Palestine. Responding the PLO Central Council's resolution calling on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to stay in power until new elections are held in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Hamas declared that the resolution was "illegal" and a "coup against the Palestinian constitution".

Hamas's "liberation" mission is turning to the West Bank, whose leadership is seen as the "collaborator" of the main enemy, Israel. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum pressed the case in the response to the PLO announcement:

This is an illegal decision and a political bribe to cover up for the fact that Abbas's term in office had expired a long time ago. Abbas's term in office expired and no one has the right to extend his mandate.

Iran: The Regime Takes On (Hacks?) Twitter for Moharram

UPDATE 1320 GMT: HomyLafayette offers an important correction on the text used by the "Iranian Cyber Army" (see 0945 GMT): "The red text on the green flag in fact reads, 'O Hossein, peace be upon him,' referring to Imam Hossein, a key figure in Islam and the 3rd Imam of Shiites." It is Hossein's death that is commemorated in the month of Moharram that starts today.

UPDATE 1010 GMT: Twitter has posted, “Twitter’s DNS [Domain Name System] records were temporarily compromised but have now been fixed. We are looking into the underlying cause and will update with more information soon.”

UPDATE 0945 GMT: When FoxNews caught up with this story, they included this information:

"Above the flag, in Arabic, read: 'Hezbollah is victorious.' On the flag, in red Arabic writing: 'Yassin' (an Arabic name written in bold) then in smaller Arabic print 'the feast of peace'. Below the flag was more written in Farsi."



0755 GMT: We just found the screenshot of Twitter's website when it was "occupied" by the "Iranian Cyber Army". It is the same text and image that appeared on the Green Movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz on Wednesday.

I woke this morning to find that Twitter was running extremely slowly and sometimes grinding to a halt. Indeed, since 1200 GMT yesterday there have been serious slow-downs in delivery of messages.

Service is now picking up, but the hot story is that Twitter was hacked yesterday by the "Iranian Cyber Army" with this message:

THIS SITE HAS BEEN HACKED BY IRANIAN CYBER ARMY

iRANiAN.CYBER.ARMY@GMAIL.COM

U.S.A. Think They Controlling And Managing Internet By Their Access, But THey Don’t, We Control And Manage Internet By Our Power, So Do Not Try To Stimulation Iranian Peoples To….

NOW WHICH COUNTRY IN EMBARGO LIST? IRAN? USA?
WE PUSH THEM IN EMBARGO LIST 
Take Care.

Sharp-eyed EA readers will recognise that "Iranian Cyber Army" is the same group that took over the domain of the Green Movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz/Mowjcamp earlier this week.

The Latest from Iran (18 December): Moharram Begins

Yet, in this apparent victory for Iranian cyber-warfare, there lies I think a greater admission of defeat. If Twitter  has not been that important in the challenge to the regime's legitimacy since the Presidential election of June, why try to knock it out --- raising the ire of millions of users who so far have had little interest in the events in Iran --- at the start of Moharram? That seems more a confession of worry than an assertion of strength.

And it is one thing to take out an opposition website; another to try and still one of the most significant global shifts in the use of the Internet. For a few hours, yes, but for all of today? And the next day? And all the way to the likely mass protests on Ashura on 27 December?

So, if the Iranian Cyber Army did indeed take on and for, at least a moment, knock down Twitter....it may be time to look up the definition of "Pyrrhic victory".

Today on EA (17 December)

Iran: We're keeping track of the latest developments on our LiveBlog. Today, however, is quieter so far than yesterday, when threats and responses are flying between the regime, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Green movement. We've assessed the significance in a special analysis.

One of the threats came from the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, who said he had enough evidence to bring charges against opposition figures. We've got the video of his speech.

We've also got video of an interview with a purported Basiji militiaman, who has fled to Britain, alleging abuse of detainees and rigging of the Presidential vote. And we've posted lawyer and activist Shirin Ebadi's special comment on the "We are All in Hejab" movement sparked by the arrest of Majid Tavakoli.

Israel: Ali Yenidunya picks up on the effective confirmation of Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas as indefinite President of the West Bank. He also asks if the Britain Government's apology over the arrest warrant issued against former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is a de facto endorsement of the Israeli war in Gaza a year ago.

The Latest from Iran (17 December): An Uncertain Regime

2145 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz Suspends Publication. The editors and reporters of the Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz/Mowjcamp, a key source of information in the post-election crisis, have announced tonight that they are suspending the posting of articles.

The authors declare that this is the "end of a wave but the beginning of a path", as they "leave the arena temporarily to other Green [activists]". The announcement points to 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as a key date for mobilisation.

Overall impression? The Mowj-e-Sabz activists, having been under constant regime pressure and having had their domain "seized" by hackers (the announcement claims they were Russians hired by the regime) this week, are taking a step back and drawing breath. The impression is of an opposition movement preparing to move more slowly but consistently in a long-haul battle.

2130 GMT: Paying Respects. Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, have visited former Vice President and recently-released detainee Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.

2125 GMT: More than 900 Sharif University students have signed an open letter protesting the arrest of protesters on 16 Azar (7 December).

1920 GMT: Propaganda of the Day (2). Israeli officials are putting out the story that President Obama, on his trip to Beijing in November, "warned his Chinese counterpart that the United States would not be able to keep Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear installations for much longer". This "part of the U.S. attempt to convince the Chinese to support strict sanctions on Tehran" matches up with leaks to the US media from a faction (probably including Dennis Ross of the National Security Council) in the Obama Administration --- which we noted --- that Israel would send the missiles into Iran if nothing was done about Tehran's nuclear program.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Sword Wavers
NEW Latest Iran Video: Interview of the “Basij Member” on the Election and Abuses (16 December)
NEW Iran & The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “To Men Who Are Not Ashamed of Being a Woman” (Shirin Ebadi)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Larijani Threat to Arrest Green Leaders (16 December)
Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech in Mashhad (6 December)
Iran: Why the US Sanctions Game on Tehran is All Wrong
Iran Picture of the Day: Mohammad Khatami’s Cellphone
Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to Moharram
The Latest on Iran (16 December): What’s Next?

The bigger story, however, lies beyond the spin. The Israeli officials added that the effect on Beijing was short-lived: "the Americans now understand that the Chinese agreed to join the condemnation announcement [at the International Atomic Energy Agency] only because Obama made a personal request to [Chinese leader Hu Jintao], not as part of a policy change". They noted that China has "refused a Saudi-American initiative designed to end Chinese dependence on Iranian oil".

If true, that means --- for all the bluster of the pro-sanctions crowd in Washington in conjunction with the Israelis --- any notion of economic punishment including the Chinese is a fantasy.

1900 GMT: Propaganda of the Day (1): On his "Go-Away-and-Play-While-The-Adults-Deal-with-the-Political-Crisis" trip in Copenhagen, President Ahmadinejad "has described capitalism and materialism as root causes for the world's environment crisis".

I don't want to be snippy, Mahmoud, but have you been in Tehran on a hot summer day when there's no wind coming off the mountain?

1715 GMT: The New Green Website. Repeating the important news yesterday: the Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz/Mowjcamp can now be accessed at http://www.mowjcamp.ws/.

1700 GMT: For What It's Worth "Do Nothing". I've had problems with Roger Cohen's treatment of Iran in recent months, in particular his dismissal of the role new media/social media inside and outside the country in this political contest, but today I find myself on his side:

All this [history of Iran's nuclear programme] says — nay, screams — to me: Do nothing. It is President Barack Obama’s outreach that has unsettled a regime that found American axis-of-evil rhetoric easy to exploit. After struggling, Obama has also found his sweet spot in combining that détente with quiet support for universal rights....

[The protesters'] cause would be best upheld by stopping the march toward “crippling” sanctions on Iran....As Elizabeth Shakman Hurd of Northwestern University has written, “the United States is empowering the dissenters with its silence.”...Obama, himself of hybrid identity, must show his understanding of this historic urge by doing nothing. That will allow the Iranian political clock to tick faster still.

(For what it's worth, my comment to a reader yesterday, "My own preference has been to put the nuclear issue to the side and suspend discussions while Iran’s internal situation is in flux. That approach brings its own issues and difficulties — how to hold back Israel, for example — but I think it’s a more effective denial of legitimacy to Ahmadinejad and Co. than the questionable stick of sanctions.")

1330 GMT: The Latest on the Marches. Still confusion and uncertainty over whether the opposition will protest tomorrow. Some Iranian websites are reporting that the Green Movement will NOT demonstrate. The latest from Mir Hossein Mousavi is that he, Mehdi Karroubi, and the Association of Combatant Clergy are still waiting for a decision on their separate requests for permits.

1140 GMT: Out-of-Date News: Mehr News' English-language website just posted this news of reconciliation:

A senior lawmaker announced on Monday that two groups -- a six-person group from the Expediency Council and an eight-member group from somewhere else -- have started efforts to broker unity among principlists and reformists. [Deputy Speaker of Parliament] Mohammad Reza Bahonar also blasted harsh criticism against Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani....Bahonar who is also the secretary general of the Islamic Association of Engineers praised Rafsanjani’s efforts for national unity....Bahonar also said opposition groups in the country must have media to express their views.

So a prospect of reconcilation, then? Not quite: Bahonar said this "on Monday", before the latest regime assaults against Rafsanjani.

What say you now, Mr Bahonar?

1015 GMT: Abuses, Threats, and the Tribute to Majid Tavakoli. We've posted three important entries: 1) a video of the speech by Sadegh Larijani (see separate analysis) threatening arrest of opposition leaders; 2) an article by Shirin Ebadi on the "We All Wear Hejab" response to the arrest of Majid Tavakoli; and 3) the video of the interview by Britain's Channel 4 of the purported Basiji militiaman.

(Note: the Larijani video is not on our lead page because the audio automatically loads when a reader scrolls.)

0920 GMT: Shutting Down Ayatollah Dastgheib. The lecture hall of Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib in Shiraz, "The Cradle of Martyrs", has been shut down. The hall was the biggest one for the mourning ceremony of Imam Hussain during Moharram.

As Dastgheib has been a critic both of the Government and of the Supreme Leader since June, speculation is that the closure is to prevent opposition protest.

0915 GMT: Clerical Boycott. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Khashani, a member of Guardian Council and the head of theological college of Shahid Motahhari, has refused to participate in the sessions of Association of Combatant Clergy as a protest against the association's failure to react against insults of clerics such as Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ali-Akhbar Nategh-Nouri by some Presidential candidates (i.e., Mahmoud Ahmadinejad).

0905 GMT: Defending the Opposition. The audio of the speeches by reformist members of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh and Nasrullah Torabi (see yesterday's updates and separate analysis), warning against regime intentions to arrest political figures in the Green movement, has been posted.

0855 GMT: The Verbal Sword-Fight. Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, also spoke at the same conference of prosecutors addressed by Sadegh Lariajni with his "We Have the Evidence" declaration (see separate analysis). Jalili's talk was more the standard formula of legitimacy, followed by insinuation of foreign-directed opposition:

Enemies cannot deny the massive turnout and the tight internal political competition leading to the elections. Indeed the election was a turning point in the Islamic Republic’s history and underpinned our political credibility in the world....Regrettably some quarters are trying to change this turning point into an opportunity for themselves. This is a major act of injustice towards the Islamic Republic.

0755 GMT: The Basiji Confession? There is a lot of Internet chatter this morning about an interview by Britain's Channel 4 Television with a man claiming to be a former member of the Basij militia. The interview includes confirmation of the torture and rape of detainees and the assertion, "In truth the orders [to manipulate the Presidential vote] didn't come after the election. The orders for all that you witnessed came before the election."

0740 GMT: The Clerics-Rafsanjani Alliance? One announcement which may be of significance amidst our recent consideration of political plans and manoeuvres: Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, a critic of the Ahmadinejad Government in the post-election crisis, is meeting former President Hashemi Rafsanjani this evening.

0735 GMT: We've started the morning with a special analysis, "The Regime's Sword Wavers", which summarises recent developments and looks forward to the start of Moharram tomorrow. Our conclusion? "A swinging sword does not necessarily find its target. And it does not necessarily bring legitimacy".

One note to add to that analysis: all of this turmoil occurs as President Ahmadinejad is far, far away in location at the Copenhagen summit. Is he also far, far away politically, a bystander as regime officials, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the Green opposition trade blows amidst increasingly hostile rhetoric?