Iran: A Secret Deal for Purified Uranium from Kazakhstan?

The Associated Press reports that Iran is close to clinching a deal to clandestinely import 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan.

The report was prepared by a member nation of the International Atomic Energy Agency and given to AP on the condition that the country not be identified because of the confidential nature of the information.

The reports claims Teheran is willing to pay $450 million for the shipment and added that "the price is high because of the secret nature of the deal and due to Iran's commitment to keep secret the elements supplying the material".

The Latest from Iran (30 December): Towards….What?

Clandestine imports are banned by the UN Security Council, and Iran is currently under sanctions that ban the importat of all items, materials, equipment, goods, and technology that could contribute to its enrichment activities.

A Western diplomat from a member of the IAEA's 35-nation board said the report was causing "concern" among countries that have seen it and generating "intelligence chatter".

A senior US official told the AP that Washington was aware of the intelligence report but declined to discuss specifics:

We are not going to discuss our private consultations with other governments on such matters but, suffice to say, we have been engaged with Kazakhstan and many of our other international nonproliferation partners on this subject in particular over the past several years. We will continue to have those discussions.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said: "The transfer of any uranium yellowcake ... to Iran would constitute a clear violation of UNSC sanctions. We have been engaged with many of our international nonproliferation partners on Iran's illicit efforts to acquire new supplies of uranium over the past several years."

Purified ore, or uranium oxide — known as "yellowcake" — is processed into a uranium gas, which is then spun and re-spun to varying degrees of enrichment. Low enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel, and upper-end high enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

Kazakhstan is among the world's three top producers of uranium, accounting for more than 8,500 tons last year. In comparison, Iran produces only an estimated 20 tons a year.

Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)

See also the Reuters report on pro-regime protests on Monday and Tuesday:

Claimed Attack on Ayatollah Dastghaib's offices in Qoba Mosque, Shiraz

[youtube]http://bit.ly/5UoQGv [/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rXcSq0_iOk[/youtube]

Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest

After more than a week of mourning, memorials, dramatic confrontation, and arrests, Iran has "settled" into uncertain tension this morning.

The uncertainty on the Government side is what can be offered beyond threats. Those were in abundance on Tuesday, with high-profile members of Parliament, including the Speaker Ali Larijani, the Revolutionary Guard, and the state media issuing declarations of crushing dissent and cutting off hands.

That was the start and end of a post-Ashura position, however. President Ahmadinejad popped up briefly but only to put the label of foreign-run "masquerade" on the protests. The Supreme Leader has still not been heard since Sunday. There have been, as an EA reader has helpfully informed us, pro-regime rallies of unknown size (the label "thousands" has been used in the state media reports and Reuter's account of those reports --- see video in separate entry) but even these were framed now as objections to Ashura "rioting" rather than an assertion of Government legitimacy.

On the opposiiton side, there is an inevitable retreat from the high point of Sunday's demonstrations --- inevitable because of the need to re-group and re-organise, inevitable because the regime's strategy of arrests seeks to prevent any regroups and reorganisation.

An EA reader asked yesterday, "Who now leads the movement?" It is both the strength of and challenge for this movement --- with Mousavi and Karroubi under "semi-house arrest", their chief aides in detention or re-arrested in the last 72 hours, and communications under constant attack --- that it draws strength from a collection of groups who persist and proceed despite the Government attempts to hammer them out of existence.

That in itself is enough to ensure that there will be another emergence of mass protest. However, even as the movement lives and --- in moments like Sunday --- "wins", the question grows: "What is that movement 'for'?" Indeed, the regime's own attempts to make that question irrelevant only bring it to the centre of political consideration and concern.

Because the regime has ruled out compromise --- not only the compromise of the increasingly-distant "National Unity Plan" but also the compromise of the legal measures demanded by Mousavi and Karroubi --- the notion of resolution within the system recedes. A movement which was largely propelled by the perception of a rigged election has moved beyond that election to a confrontation with the religious as well as secular foundations (at least the foundations as embodied in the current leadership) of the Islamic Republic.

The easy answer, seen in the slogans of recent protests, is "Throw the Rascals Out" or even "Death to the Rascals". But that increasingly turns general demands for change into a showdown of Opposition v. the Rascals --- the so-called "radicalisation" which has become a handy label to stick on dissent.

And, then, what if the Rascals do go? Where then the Islamic Republic?

That may be an uncertainty which, in practical terms, does not have to be confronted immediately. Opposition can propel itself just by opposing. But if the protests are seeking to win over and mobilise those who initially did not support its call for change, then the necessity of setting out a "positive" may emerge even before the fantasy of the Supreme Leader hopping a jet to Russia takes on the shape of a possibility.

With each passing day, the regime is shorn of its own claim of the "positive" in Iran --- politically, economically, socially --- and falls back on the "negative" of fighting a supposed evil. The defining issue for the opposition, as it moves beyond the symbolism and political reality of a "leader" (first Mousavi, then Karroubi) may be whether it can avoid doing the same.

Middle East Inside Line: Egypt & Israel Hope on "Peace Process" with Palestine

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from meetings in Cairo  with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, and Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit.

Netanyahu said, "I was very encouraged by the commitment of President  Mubarak toward promoting the peace process between us and the Palestinians. I expect and hope to see such readiness on part of the Palestinian Authority."

In Cairo, Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit praised Netanyahu and his proposal on restarting peace talks with the Palestinians. despite the Israeli decision to build 700 more apartments in East Jerusalem. Gheit said, "I can't talk about details, but the prime minister was discussing positions that surpass in our estimate what we've heard from them in a long time. I can't say that he has come with changed positions, but he is moving forward."

Israel-Palestine: Foreign Minister Lieberman “No Peace for 10-20 Years”
Israel: 700 More Apartments in East Jerusalem Despite US Objections

Today on EA - 29 December 2009

Iran: Two days after Ashura and the Iranian Government is desperately trying to reestablish some form of control.

The list of Ashura detainees continues to grow and now includes the sister of Nobel Peace Prize holder Shirin Ebadi, many eminent journalists and the brother of Mir Houssein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard.

We're still adding to our video collections from the Ashura protests. Set three is here. Previous sets are here and here. We also have video analysis from Karim Sadjadpour and Trita Parsi.

America's President Obama addressed the nation on the attempt to blow up a commercial jet on Christmas Day. We have the video, a transcript and our analysis on his take on anti-terrorism and the Iran protests.

All the latest news is, as always, in our liveblog.

Israel: Israel has announced it will build a further 700 apartments in East Jerusalem, despite US objections.

Israel/Palestine: On Sunday, Israel's Foreign Minister Lieberman said he saw no chance for a comprehensive Israel-Palestine agreement in the next 10 to 20 years.