Tuesday
Feb172009
Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?
Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 9:10
Latest Post: Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?: An Alternative Analysis
The Daily Telegraph of London splashes a contemporary spy drama on its pages this morning:
That's quite plausible, of course, given declarations such as that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak yesterday that an Iran nuclear weapons programme would be an "existential threat" to Tel Aviv.
But then the story gets almost as murky as the covert project. The only source is a "former CIA officer on Iran" who claims, "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that [the Iranians] don't realise what's happening....The goal is delay, delay, delay [the weapons programme] until you can come up with some other solution or approach."
No direct evidence there and the only cited case is that "Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported 'gas poisoning' in [January] 2007". At the time, the US Government's Radio Farda circulated the report, supported by a Reva Bhalla of Stratfor who insisted there was "very strong intelligence" that Hassanpour had been targeted by Israel. Iranian news services countered that Hassanpour had not been employed by the Atomic Energy Organisation: "[All] nuclear experts, Thank God, are sound and safe."
Unsurprisingly, Bhalla pops up in The Telegraph for a sound-bite but adds no evidence. And the article has no other cases to test; it just asserts, based on "Western intelligence sources": "Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli 'hits', intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme."
The article lists other operations which are far more likely to be significant, such as "Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites" and "Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network for 'dual use' items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme".
Overall, however, this reads as a different type of operation, a bit of "psychological warfare" to keep Tehran off-balance over what might and might not be attempted to undermine its nuclear programme and to add the stick to the carrot of "engagement". And, given that the main sources are "Western" and the story is out of New York, this has the feel of folks in the US Government --- possibly supported by London --- putting the pressure on Iran.
The Daily Telegraph of London splashes a contemporary spy drama on its pages this morning:Israel has launched a covert war against Iran as an alternative to direct military strikes against Tehran's nuclear programme, US intelligence sources have revealed. It is using hitmen, sabotage, front companies and double agents to disrupt the regime's illicit weapons project.
That's quite plausible, of course, given declarations such as that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak yesterday that an Iran nuclear weapons programme would be an "existential threat" to Tel Aviv.
But then the story gets almost as murky as the covert project. The only source is a "former CIA officer on Iran" who claims, "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that [the Iranians] don't realise what's happening....The goal is delay, delay, delay [the weapons programme] until you can come up with some other solution or approach."
No direct evidence there and the only cited case is that "Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported 'gas poisoning' in [January] 2007". At the time, the US Government's Radio Farda circulated the report, supported by a Reva Bhalla of Stratfor who insisted there was "very strong intelligence" that Hassanpour had been targeted by Israel. Iranian news services countered that Hassanpour had not been employed by the Atomic Energy Organisation: "[All] nuclear experts, Thank God, are sound and safe."
Unsurprisingly, Bhalla pops up in The Telegraph for a sound-bite but adds no evidence. And the article has no other cases to test; it just asserts, based on "Western intelligence sources": "Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli 'hits', intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme."
The article lists other operations which are far more likely to be significant, such as "Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites" and "Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network for 'dual use' items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme".
Overall, however, this reads as a different type of operation, a bit of "psychological warfare" to keep Tehran off-balance over what might and might not be attempted to undermine its nuclear programme and to add the stick to the carrot of "engagement". And, given that the main sources are "Western" and the story is out of New York, this has the feel of folks in the US Government --- possibly supported by London --- putting the pressure on Iran.