Welcome to the Israel-Palestine Future, Courtesy of the Likud Party

Reader E.T. Cook has posted at Brazen Statesmen an excellent analysis of the Likud Party, which is predicted to capture the most seats in next week's Israeli elections and thus provide the next Prime Minister in Benjamin Netanyahu, and the significance for Israel-Palestine relations. His conclusion?

Even if Netanyahu wins, he will most likely find himself with around 30 seats, which means a coalition with more moderate parties might be in store. If the recent polls are any indication, regardless of who wins, the Israeli public seems to be demanding more aggressive action by their government.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (4 February)

Latest Post: The Failed Olmert Offer of an Israel-Palestine Settlement
Latest-Post: Israel-Gaza: How to Cover a Mass Killing with "Balance"

9:25 p.m. Stating the Obvious. "The Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas said on Wednesday it doubted Egypt could complete a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza on Thursday."

Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk set out the official line that "clarifications" were needed on the extent to which Israel would open border crossings, but to state the obvious, there was no way a proposal could be put while Fatah and Hamas are still vying with each other for the diplomatic upper hand.

8 p.m. Red Alert of the Day. Isaac Ben Israel, a Member of the Knesset, has declared that Israel has a year in which to attack Iran before Tehran has a nuclear bomb: Ben Israel, a former general and senior defence official, said, "Last resort means when you reach the stage when everything else failed. When is this? Maybe a year, give or take."

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu told a conference that Iran poses "the gravest challenge Israel has faced since the War of Independence in 1948. We will work on all levels to neutralise this danger."

Evening Update (7:45 p.m. GMT; 9:45 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Israeli military have accepted responsibility for the deaths of four girls from tank fire in Gaza.


So why have the Israeli Defense Forces admitted this incident when they have denied numerous others involving civilian deaths? Could the reason be that the girls were the three daughters and niece of a Gazan doctor, who appeared live on Israeli television when he received news of the killings?

Still, there are limits to responsibility, even the case is in the Israeli public spotlight. The IDF have claimed there were militants firing from the upper story of the house, which they did not know belonged to the doctor.

1 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has claimed Hamas took hundreds of food parcels and thousands of blankets that the UN planned to distribute to 500 families. The Hamas Welfare Minister has denied the accusation.

12:45 p.m. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, addressing the European Parliament, has said, "Israeli leaders should be held accountable for their violations of international and humanitarian law." He claims 90,000 Gazans lost their homes in the recent Israeli invasion.

Abbas, seeking to regain leadership of the Palestinian movement, set out his "red line" for talks with Israel: "It is no longer acceptable to negotiate on the principle on ending the occupation. Negotiations must end the occupation of all the land occupied in 1967."

12:30 p.m. The Palestinian Authority, trying to regain a foothold in Gaza, has announced a $600 million reconstruction programme. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad announced that most of the money from donors, though no details were given on whether these were foreign governments, the United Nations, or non-governmental organisations.

Fayyad also did not say how the aid would get to Gaza, given Israel's restriction on any transfer of cash by the Palestinian Authority to the area. While Hamas has paid its employees in dollars, the Palestinian Authority has had to delay payments to its employees for two weeks.

8:40 a.m. Today's Mahmoud Abbas Walkabout. The Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets the President of the European Parliament, Hans Gert Pottering, and addresses the parliament on Wednesday.

Abbas met French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Tuesday. Kouchner made a call for Gaza's crossing to be reopened, but the real significance was the reference to "a major issue" of Palestinian reconciliation.

Abbas and his spokesmen are now putting out the line that they will not only work with Hamas in a unity movement but that such a movement must include Hamas. However, Abbas is adding a not-too veiled condition: "a national unity government that considers itself bound by international legality and previous agreements", i.e. recognition of Israel and previous arrangements on borders and Israeli settlements.


Morning update (8:15 a.m. GMT; 3:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We've posted two significant stories as separate entries: one on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's offer of a broad settlement last autumn to the Palestinian Authority and one digging out the significance of a lengthy article by The New York Times on a mass killing in El Atatra by Israeli forces during the recent Gaza war.

Meanwhile, in a continuing side-story, Cyprus has given the United Nations a report on the cargo of a container ship suspected of carrying arms from Iran to Gaza. Israel and the US are hoping that this will finally tie Tehran to military support of Hamas; previous efforts in recent weeks have failed to provide the necessary evidence.