The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (27 February): Livni Rejects Netanyahu Coalition

Afternoon Update (11:30 a.m. GMT): Kadima leader Tzipi Livni says she will not join Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu in a governing coalition: Kadima will be a "responsible opposition".

Morning Update (8 a.m. GMT; 10 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The more extravagant headlines on yesterday's Palestinian "reconciliation" talks in Cairo proclaim "Vow to Release prisoners, Unify".

It's not quite that straightforward. Hamas and Fatah did agree to an effective swap of political detainees/prisoners in Gaza and the West Bank and "to stop smear campaigns in the media". The 12 Palestinian groups also agreed to form five committees on prisoners, security, and elections. The committees will begin meetings on 10 March and issue reports by the end of the month.

The question, however, is whether the leaderships of the Palestinian factions will act on those reports. On the surface, this appears to be an immediate victory for Hamas, which did not want any quick pronouncement on the make-up of a Palestinian Government. They now have time to manoeuvre, building on the upswell of support from the Gaza War, while Fatah and the Palestinian Authority scramble to recover their position.

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 February): The Cairo Talks

Afternoon Update (3:25 p.m. GMT): US envoy George Mitchell has embarked on his second tour of the Middle East, meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in separate meetings. 

Earlier, Mitchell was in Ankara to ensure Turkish leaders, who had criticised Israel over its conduct in the Gaza War, were on board: "Turkey is a crucial ally of the United States and an important force for peace and security in the Middle East."

This is almost a daily ritual. Two rockets fired into Israel; Israel strikes smuggling tunnels around Rafah.

Morning Update (11 a.m. GMT; 1 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Palestinian "reconciliation" talks, involving a dozen groups but with most attention focused on Hamas and Fatah, have opened in Cairo. Egypt, after the failure of its strategy in the Gaza conflict is hoping to recover a prime position in the region with a successful outcome; its head of intelligence, Omar Suleiman (pictured), told delegates,

Everyone is looking toward you ... and hanging their hopes on you. So do not prolong the disagreement and deepen the division. Unite ranks to fulfill the hopes of all for an independent Palestinian state.

Fatah, with the Palestinian Authority's legal and political mandate in the West Bank in jeopardy, is pressing for a quick agreement on a new Palestinian government; Hamas is signalling that it will seek a longer process.

Meanwhile, in Israel, it appears that any prospect of a coaltion government of Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, has been doomed over differences on a two-state Israel-Palestine solution. Livni is insisting on a clear settlement; Netanyahu is holding out against it. Former foreign minister and Likud negotiator Silvan Shalom told Army Radio:

There is across-the-board agreement on Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas but there is a big gap between Kadima and Likud on the two states for two people. It's unsolvable.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (16 February)

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7 p.m. The Palestinian Authority is borrowing money so it can pay the salaries of its employees in the West Bank. This indicates that the problem for the PA is more serious than Israeli restriction of cash into Gaza, which has limited payments to its employees there; the Authority faces a shortage of funds which could limit its political manoeuvring against Hamas.

The PA employees have been on strike today; Authority representative for social affairs, Mahmoud al-Habbash, said salaries will be paid on Tuesday.

6 p.m. Israeli officials say that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will convene his Security Cabinet on Wednesday to consider a prisoner swap, including kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, as the first act of an Israel-Gaza agreement.

1 p.m. Israel has struck tunnels around Rafah. The death of one Gazan and wounding of five this morning (see 10:15 a.m.) was due to an unexploded munition thrown a fire melting down scrap metal.

11 a.m. From Associated Press: "Israel has taken control of 425 acres of West Bank land, paving the way for the possible construction of 2,500 settlement homes, officials said Monday."

Morning Update (10:15 a.m. GMT; 12:15 p.m. Israel/Palestine): One Gazan has been killed and five wounded in what appears to be an Israeli attack, although the Israeli military says it has no knowledge of an operation. Earlier, two rockets from Gaza landed in southern Israel; they were claimed by the little-known Hezbollah Brigades Palestine.

What Israel Lost in Gaza: Talks with Syria, A Relationship with Turkey?

To my knowledge, this story from Ha'aretz on Friday has received little notice outside Israel:

Israel and Syria were about to announce that they would speak directly a week before the fighting in Gaza broke out, a Turkish official said. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had spoken with Syrian President Bashar Assad (pictured) during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Ankara, and had mediated in crafting a joint statement.

But a few days later, while still awaiting Olmert's approval for the statement, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and Erdogan felt betrayed.

Now it could well be that Turkey is playing up the story to cover Erdogan's very public denunciation of Israeli actions. And it may be the case that, after making political calculations, Damascus will decide that the benefits of coming back to the negotiating table with Israel outweigh or even balance its backing of Hamas. As my colleague Ali Yenidunya has argued, there may be no long-term cost to the Israeli-Turkish alliance.

For the moment, however, let's note that the Israeli Government was so driven to take action in Gaza that it was willing to risk a peace process to ease tensions on its northern border and a strategic relationship with Ankara. It will be some time before we know what motives lay behind this gamble --- regime change? a strike at Hamas as a strike against Tehran? a grand scheme in collusion with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and, possibly, Saudi Arabia? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's attempt to wipe away the stain of Lebanon 2006?

It is almost definite, however, that given the stakes involved, Operation Cast Lead was never just a response to rocket fire.B

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (13 February)

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1:55 p.m. An Israeli airstrike has killed one Gazan militant and critically wounded another. Two other people reported injured.

1:45 p.m. It looks like a prisoner swap involving Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is part of the cease-fire package. Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) is quoted by an Egyptian news agency, ""We want the release of our detainees in exchange for Shalit. If Israel agrees to our list, we will make the deal."

Hamas has submitted a list of 1400 prisoners; diplomatic sources say Israel is willing to free closer to 1000.

10:20 a.m. A series of details, some of them conflicting, are emerging over the possible Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangement.

All accounts agree the time period is 18 months but the status of border crossings is unclear. Hamas has demanded a full opening, but the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot is reporting that Israel will only about 80 percent of goods to pass. Prohibited items would include "pipes, machines and other raw materials liable to be used to manufacture rockets and explosives", and the two sides are still at odds over cement, concrete and construction iron.

Reuters is reporting that the crossings will have international monitors and also some Palestinian Authority guards. Turkish forces may also be involved.

There are also differences in reporting on a possible prisoner swap involving kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has denied any arrangement involving Shalit, but Reuters, citing "Western and Palestinian officials", says a prisoner exchange is part of the deal.

7:40 a.m. Three Qassam rockets have hit the western Negev in Israel.

Morning Update (5:55 a.m. GMT; 7:55 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Hamas' declaration that a cease-fire agreement with Israel can be reached within 72 hours, which we noted in our last update yesterday, continues to be the top development. Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) says the proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire with opening of all border crossings.

The key question, of course, is whether Tel Aviv has indeed signalled its readiness that it will sign or whether Hamas is taking this public line to press the Olmert Government into acceptance.

Elsewhere, Egypt has seized 2200 tons of food and medical supplies that the Doctors' Syndicate was trying to take into Gaza and arrested two members of the aid committee. The seizure is both part of Egypt's general campaign to keep pressure on Hamas by limiting aid and part of Egyptian internal politics. The committee and the arrested men are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt.