The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (27 February): Livni Rejects Netanyahu Coalition

Afternoon Update (11:30 a.m. GMT): Kadima leader Tzipi Livni says she will not join Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu in a governing coalition: Kadima will be a "responsible opposition".

Morning Update (8 a.m. GMT; 10 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The more extravagant headlines on yesterday's Palestinian "reconciliation" talks in Cairo proclaim "Vow to Release prisoners, Unify".

It's not quite that straightforward. Hamas and Fatah did agree to an effective swap of political detainees/prisoners in Gaza and the West Bank and "to stop smear campaigns in the media". The 12 Palestinian groups also agreed to form five committees on prisoners, security, and elections. The committees will begin meetings on 10 March and issue reports by the end of the month.

The question, however, is whether the leaderships of the Palestinian factions will act on those reports. On the surface, this appears to be an immediate victory for Hamas, which did not want any quick pronouncement on the make-up of a Palestinian Government. They now have time to manoeuvre, building on the upswell of support from the Gaza War, while Fatah and the Palestinian Authority scramble to recover their position.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (17 February)

Evening Update (8 p.m.): Another obstacle to the Egyptian-brokered talks, this time over Palestinian unity. Reuters claims the "efforts may be doomed by Western powers' reluctance to accept ministers from the Islamist party. Neither the Obama administration nor the European Union is ready to offer more than vague and conditional encouragement to a coalition intended to heal the schism in Palestinian politics."

The BBC are reporting that the UN has protested the removal of unexploded munitions from its warehouses in Gaza. The facilities were being guarded by Hamas personnel, and it is suspected that the organisation has revolved the ordnance.

The UN was waiting for Israel to allow technical support into Gaza to defuse the ordnance (see 6 a.m.)

3:30 p.m. How little political movement has there been today? More than nine hours ago, we wrote, "The question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the [prisoner swap] arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting."

This from Agence France Presse:

"We want first to resolve the Shalit issue and then will look into the reopening of crossings and the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip," [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert said. His demand was swiftly rejected by Hamas's exiled leader Khaled Meshaal, who again accused Israel of backtracking on the terms of a proposed long-term truce by linking the lifting of the blockade to the soldier's release.

6:50 a.m. An interesting political development, however, which may have long-term significance in Israeli politics and Israel-Palestine relations. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, still trying to form the next Israeli Government in which she would be Prime Minister, told US Jewish leaders in Jerusalem yesterday that Tel Aviv would have to "give up parts of the Land of Israel" in a settlement.

The comments are in sharp contrast to those of Livni's rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, who insists on "biblical borders" including parts of Gaza and the West Bank.

Livni put her support for the two-state solution in a wider regional perspective: ""If we don't continue with the plan, we will not be able to count on the support of the international community against Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas."

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): A relatively quiet day yesterday and likely to be so again today. News services are reporting that Hamas is ready to consider prisoner swap, which in fact is not news --- the Gazan leadership have been discussing this for some days. The issue is whether a prisoner swap will be agreed in advance of any settlement of issues such as border crossings, setting up a two-stage process. Hamas wants to keep the strands separate: the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured) must not be "part of a broader cease-fire agreement with Israel".

No, the question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting.

Meanwhile safety, let alone reconstruction, is being held up by continued restrictions on supplies and movement in Gaza:

A team trained to remove and destroy unexploded ordnance has been operating in the Gaza Strip for three weeks, but its work is being held up because Israel has not approved the entry of its equipment nor an area for storing and neutralizing ordnance. For now some of the latter, located by the Palestinian police, is being stored in locations that are dangerously close to population centers in Rafah, Khan Yunis and Gaza City.

One Gazan died and five were wounded yesterday when unexploded munitions were thrown onto a fire melting scrap metal.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (16 February)

Related Post: Classic Israel-Palestine Joke of the Day



7 p.m. The Palestinian Authority is borrowing money so it can pay the salaries of its employees in the West Bank. This indicates that the problem for the PA is more serious than Israeli restriction of cash into Gaza, which has limited payments to its employees there; the Authority faces a shortage of funds which could limit its political manoeuvring against Hamas.

The PA employees have been on strike today; Authority representative for social affairs, Mahmoud al-Habbash, said salaries will be paid on Tuesday.

6 p.m. Israeli officials say that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will convene his Security Cabinet on Wednesday to consider a prisoner swap, including kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, as the first act of an Israel-Gaza agreement.

1 p.m. Israel has struck tunnels around Rafah. The death of one Gazan and wounding of five this morning (see 10:15 a.m.) was due to an unexploded munition thrown a fire melting down scrap metal.

11 a.m. From Associated Press: "Israel has taken control of 425 acres of West Bank land, paving the way for the possible construction of 2,500 settlement homes, officials said Monday."

Morning Update (10:15 a.m. GMT; 12:15 p.m. Israel/Palestine): One Gazan has been killed and five wounded in what appears to be an Israeli attack, although the Israeli military says it has no knowledge of an operation. Earlier, two rockets from Gaza landed in southern Israel; they were claimed by the little-known Hezbollah Brigades Palestine.

Anticipating the New Israeli Government: Netanyahu or Livni?

According to the Associated Press, the Obama Administration has praised the Israeli elections and has called the voting by millions of Israelis the sign of a strong democracy. The White House spokesman Robert Gibbs stated that the President Obama was excited to work with the new Israeli government, and on Wednesday, Obama called Israeli President Shimon Peres to express his gratitude for American and Israeli model democracies and to emphasise his personal efforts for a two-state Israel-Palestine solution.

The question is how much room there is for such a solution. While relatively moderate Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party is ready to pursue peace talks with the Abbas Government, Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Likud, considers the US-backed negotiation process as a waste of time.

Meanwhile, Livni has demonstrated her "hawkish" reflexes in the name of "Israeli interests" during Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. This was reminiscent of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's 2006 Lebanon War when there were serious questions in Israelis' minds whether the inexperienced Olmert was able to handle the weight of the Israeli politics after his predecessor Ariel Sharon's illness. The only difference is that Olmert had to prove himself after Sharon was no longer able to be the Prime Minister, while Livni had to sharpen her position against Hamas, "the common enemy" of all Israelis, to increase Kadima`s votes. Waging war against Hamas while giving priority to the peace process with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas --- including giving up land, dismantling settlements in West Bank, and sharing Jerusalem --- indicate the balance of her expected policies. Livni`s position is closer to peace when compared to that of Netanyahu, but the Iron Lady offers no concession on the most sensitive notion of the Israeli society: "security".

For Netanyahu, as we see in his election motto (“Likud: Because the state needs to be run”), Kadima has been incompetent in its rule, including its conduct of the Lebanon War and the most recent Gaza War. Netanyahu has criticized the government for being insufficiently strong against Hezbollah and Hamas in these two wars and insisted on the continuation of Operation Cast Lead. Netanyahu`s "security pack", which includes toppling Hamas in Gaza, keeping the Golan Heights, and expanding current settlements in the West Bank, is much more important than giving priority to the peace process.

It is clear that a peace agreement is unlikely to come under an Netanyahu administration, but his agenda is wide enough to keep peace proponents busy, at least in the mid-term. What is missing in this analysis, however, are the Obama Administration`s regional policies the application of these to Israel and its new Gvoernment, as it seeks a "secure" Israeli society and/or "strong" steps for peace.

B'Tselem Report: Israel's Violations of Human Rights in Gaza and the West Bank

B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, has released its 2008 annual report regarding the human rights violations took place in Palestinian lands and Israel. (The report, unfortunately, was compiled before Operation Cast Lead started in Gaza on 27 December.)

Since 2000, Israeli security forces in the Occupied Territories have killed more than 2,200 Palestinians who were not taking part in the hostilities and have wounded thousands more....

At the beginning of the second intifada, however, the Judge Advocate General’s Office stopped automatically opening investigations into cases of death and injury of Palestinians who were not involved in the hostilities, other than in exceptional cases. Between 2000 and the end of 2008, only 287 Military Police investigations were opened into cases of firing in the Occupied Territories, including cases that did not result in death or injury. In addition, in 2002, the Knesset passed a law denying Palestinians the possibility of obtaining compensation in most cases in which they have suffered injury as a result of illegal acts by security forces. Thus, Israel has almost completely blocked the two principal ways to ensure accountability.

The report offers significant points regarding casualties caused by the Israeli security forces:

Throughout 2008, until 26 December, Israeli security forces killed 455 Palestinians, 87 of them minors. Of the total, 413 (more than 90 percent) were residents of the Gaza Strip; the other 42 (less than 10 percent) were residents of the West Bank....At least 175 of the Palestinians killed in 2008 (approximately 38 percent) did not take part in the hostilities.

The report evaluates the frequently use of ‘security’ discourse by the Israeli officials:

Israel justifies many of its actions in the Occupied Territories on grounds of security. Over the years, the army has demolished hundreds of houses "for imperative military needs", has held thousands of Palestinians in administrative detention for allegedly "endangering the security of the region", and has declared thousands of acres of land a "special security area" in which Palestinian entry is forbidden, claiming the measure is necessary to protect settlements.

And, despite its completion before the recent war, the report gives important information about "the siege on Gaza":

In 2008, Israel continued its closure on the Gaza Strip, placing extreme restrictions on the Strip’s foreign trade. The closure began in June 2007, following Hamas’s takeover of the area. At the time, Israel closed the crossings into Gaza and placed major restrictions on the entry of goods into it, including fuel, medical equipment, and replacement parts. Israel allowed in only goods it deemed “humanitarian,” such as food, sugar, cooking oil, rice, and salt. In November 2007, the government of Israel declared Gaza a “hostile entity” and intensified its siege policy.

In 2008, the tunnel economy between southern Gaza and Egyptian Rafah greatly expanded. Many goods of various kinds were brought into Gaza through the tunnels, with Hamas supervising the movement and collecting taxes from tunnel operators. In addition to consumption goods, Palestinians smuggled in weapons, including rockets.

Unemployment in the Gaza Strip continued to rise in 2008. In the second quarter of the year, it reached 50 percent. 79 percent of Gazan households live under the poverty line and 70 percent live in deep poverty. 80 percent of the water supplied to Gazans this year did not meet the drinking-water standard of the World Health Organization.

The report assesses the restrictions on movement in West Bank:

2008 saw a rise in the number of flying checkpoints, which the army set up between permanent checkpoints. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), flying checkpoints averaged at 89 per week from the end of April to September 2008, compared to an average of 66 a week from September 2007 to the end of April 2008.

Finally, the report gives information about the Palestinians held in administrative detention:

In January 2009, the Israeli Prison Service informed B'Tselem that out of 548 administrative detainees being held by the army, 42 have been in prison for more than two years.