The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (17 February)

Evening Update (8 p.m.): Another obstacle to the Egyptian-brokered talks, this time over Palestinian unity. Reuters claims the "efforts may be doomed by Western powers' reluctance to accept ministers from the Islamist party. Neither the Obama administration nor the European Union is ready to offer more than vague and conditional encouragement to a coalition intended to heal the schism in Palestinian politics."

The BBC are reporting that the UN has protested the removal of unexploded munitions from its warehouses in Gaza. The facilities were being guarded by Hamas personnel, and it is suspected that the organisation has revolved the ordnance.

The UN was waiting for Israel to allow technical support into Gaza to defuse the ordnance (see 6 a.m.)

3:30 p.m. How little political movement has there been today? More than nine hours ago, we wrote, "The question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the [prisoner swap] arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting."

This from Agence France Presse:

"We want first to resolve the Shalit issue and then will look into the reopening of crossings and the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip," [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert said. His demand was swiftly rejected by Hamas's exiled leader Khaled Meshaal, who again accused Israel of backtracking on the terms of a proposed long-term truce by linking the lifting of the blockade to the soldier's release.

6:50 a.m. An interesting political development, however, which may have long-term significance in Israeli politics and Israel-Palestine relations. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, still trying to form the next Israeli Government in which she would be Prime Minister, told US Jewish leaders in Jerusalem yesterday that Tel Aviv would have to "give up parts of the Land of Israel" in a settlement.

The comments are in sharp contrast to those of Livni's rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, who insists on "biblical borders" including parts of Gaza and the West Bank.

Livni put her support for the two-state solution in a wider regional perspective: ""If we don't continue with the plan, we will not be able to count on the support of the international community against Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas."

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): A relatively quiet day yesterday and likely to be so again today. News services are reporting that Hamas is ready to consider prisoner swap, which in fact is not news --- the Gazan leadership have been discussing this for some days. The issue is whether a prisoner swap will be agreed in advance of any settlement of issues such as border crossings, setting up a two-stage process. Hamas wants to keep the strands separate: the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured) must not be "part of a broader cease-fire agreement with Israel".

No, the question is whether Tel Aviv will accept the arrangement, and we won't have any indication of that until Wednesday's Security Cabinet meeting.

Meanwhile safety, let alone reconstruction, is being held up by continued restrictions on supplies and movement in Gaza:

A team trained to remove and destroy unexploded ordnance has been operating in the Gaza Strip for three weeks, but its work is being held up because Israel has not approved the entry of its equipment nor an area for storing and neutralizing ordnance. For now some of the latter, located by the Palestinian police, is being stored in locations that are dangerously close to population centers in Rafah, Khan Yunis and Gaza City.

One Gazan died and five were wounded yesterday when unexploded munitions were thrown onto a fire melting scrap metal.

Comments

[don mac namara]

If as seem likely now that Mr Netenyahu succeeds in proving to the Israelis president , that his is the most likely party to form a government ,the conjecture posited above seem quite plausible .
He will initially , at least , try to curry favour with the Obama persidency.
The important word is ” Initially “.
It should be recalled that Netenyahu previously resiled his position on a two state solution with President Hussein of Jordan.
There is no reason to suspect that he may not do the same to Obama.
Mr Mitchell is a patient and wise man . His mettle was tested in N Ireland . And it was not found wanting. The IRA decommissioned their weapons and the two polar opposites finally sat down together in parliament .

The case in Israel is quite different despite the apparent similarities , both sectarian and other interests playing out here.
Mr Netenyahu’s right wing and Zionism may place him in a position which is untenable with the somewhat nebulous Obama position.
If Netenyahu sees some wriggle room in an illdefined Obama position , he will undoubtedly exploit it to his own ends.

Econonically Netenyahu was formerlly at least associated with an open economy with low taxation and moving jobs to lower wage economies.
That culture - Milton Freeman and the Chicago Boys has proved globally catastrophic, and whether Mr Netenyahu remains a disciple , if covertly so , is as yet undetermined.

The vexed question about whether Iran is developing a Nuclear bomb., or whether it is developing a nuclear capability in tandem with its power plants is probably a moot point.
As Mr Chirac said previously in terms of the 25000 nuclear warheads scattered globally , and Iran’s rather precocious stage in developing a nuclear bomb , ” even if they have one of even two , the bomb would not be 200 metres in the air before Tehran was razed.”

What will be most interesting will be how Mr Netenyahu dealls with the Israeli bourgeoisie , Will he be a Napoleon figure ?
Will he be presidential , or political.
Will he be bellicose or balming.

The other question and one far more pressing for the Palestinians is whether he will expand the settlements - up down- or latterally.

I the past few days there has been a further land grab from the Plaestinians. Is this an augery for a potential Netenyahu persidency.

The up/ down expansion would abate to some estent the growing imbalance in the dempgraphics whereby the Palestinians are headed for population supremacy sometime inthe 2020s'

A lateral expansion demands taking land directly from the Palestinains . That this contarvenes the Geneva conventions and the 1967 settlement seems irrelevant to the Israeli Right .

The omens are poor. Netenyahu is most likely to take the other Right wing parties with him in forming a coalition. These other parties include the ultra right wing religious zionist parties, who are as vehement in their Judaistc fundamentalism as the Islamic fundamentalism in the form of Hizbullah .

If the problem were to be contained , and remained a regional issue , this might allow the West to stand back and look on ponderously as we have done , even through the UN.

Nothing short of a combined multilateral f monitering body to oversee Israeli expansionism, a force to moniter the border crossings between Gaza and Egypt . and freedom of access between Israel and Gaza, Gaza and the West Bank, . and to continue to moniter Iranian nuclear development is necesary.

This force, of multi discliplinary professionss should be drawn from the EU, US, UN .and it should be installed with haste , and determination of purpose.

It should also be equipt with a realistic manadate and suffecient armatarium to enforce this mandate . It should have suffecient detterance in terms of militarism to constitute a real countervailig force to whatever party chose to digress from the mandate .

One is not overly optimistic that any of this can happen