Twisting the Syria Tale: The Suspected Missile Facility

Hours after we posted an analysis of Washington's engagement with Syria, the story started fluttering across the Internet that Damascus had built a missile facility on the site of the alleged nuclear plant bombed by Israel in October 2007.

According to sources, Syrian representative Ibrahim Othman (pictured) told members of the International Atomic Energy Agency about the facility. He was responding to a question if there was a nuclear operation, but he did not disclose if the missile facility was operational or when it had been constructed.

Motive? It could be that Othman was simply responding to the call in the IAEA's report for Syria to be more forthcoming about its plans and activities. He could have been throwing up a screen to cover any resumption of a nuclear programme. Damascus may have been striking a tough pose in advance of any talks with Israel or the US.

But what about the other side of the equation --- who leaked the story and why? Again, no answers here, only a range of possibilities. Those seeking engagement with Syria may have putting Damascus on notice that this would far from a no-cost process; President Bashir al-Assad would have to recognise that his country and its military plans were still under scrutiny.

Or, of course, those opposed to any rapprochement with Syria --- for all the political calculations that point towards the value of that course --- may have ensured that Othman's disclosure was circulated.

Watch this space.

Damascene Conversions: The Engagement of Syria

Joshua Landis has a complementary (and complimentary) perspective on Tisdall's analysis on Syria Comment.

Simon Tisdall, writing in The Guardian of London on Monday, offered a valuable analysis of the recent dynamics surrounding US-Syrian relations and events in the Middle East. Tisdall noted (rightly, in my opinion) the "realist" outlook of Obama and Co. and suggested that "improved US relations with Syria could hold the key" three vital issues: avoidance of military confrontation with Iran, management of the Iraq withdrawal, "and some kind of half-credible peace process between Israel and its Arab neighbours". He supported this reading with the signals of engagement: Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's interviews welcoming a US "re-entry" into the Middle East peace process, Senator John Kerry's visit to Damascus last week, and conciliatory words from Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.

What can and should be added to Tisdall's analysis are the recent events that have not only promoted this engagement but strengthened Syria's position in negotiations. In December 2008, the foundations for direct Israel-Syria talks had been laid but the wider context for the diplomacy was still the call for Damascus to end its support of groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas and to limit, if not cut, its ties with Iran.

Then the Olmert Government decided to gamble with the invasion of Gaza. The direct talks with Syria were suspended of course, alienating Turkey in the process, as Tel Aviv effectively hand-in-hand with Egypt and probably Saudi Arabia on the challenge to Hamas.

The significance was not only that this challenge failed but that it spurred a re-alignment which put Syria in the Middle Eastern ascendancy. By giving vocal and visible support to Hamas, Assad set himself up as the defender of Arab resistance to Israeli aggression, a position buttressed by the damage to Egypt's reputation. With Turkey and Iran recognising that position, as they quickly sent representatives to Damascus, and with platforms such as the Qatar Summit, the Syrians could look to a reconfigured diplomatic scene in the aftermath of Gaza.

Few have noted, for example, that there is no more talk of bringing Syrian leaders to account for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri in 2005. It is also notable that no one, especially the US, is making a fuss about the alleged Syrian nuclear facility destroyed by Israel in October 2007, even though an International Atomic Energy Agency report last week pointed to the presence of uranium.

Instead, renewed Israeli-Syrian talks are being pursued so vigorously that Uzi Mahnaimi, who should be considered more a conduit for the Israeli military and intelligence services than a journalist for The Sunday Times, is writing: "Reports compiled by Mossad, the overseas spy agency, and by military intelligence, that strongly advocate opening negotiations with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria."

Which brings us back to the wider of the Damascene conversion of Gaza into a re-aligned position not only on its direct relations with Tel Aviv but on relations with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Tehran. Tisdall sees a trade-off: a new Israeli Government will have to engage in meaningful talks with Syria to maintain its isolation of Hamas: "If, as seems likely, [Benjamin Netanyahu] obstructs the Palestinian track, the Likud leader may have to give ground elsewhere, literally."

That might have been possible up to December, but no longer. Syria now has the cards for its territorial aims vis-a-vis Israel but for an inclusion of Hamas in the discussions on Palestine. The attempt to curb Hezbollah through talks with Damascus, which always was a curious exercise mssing the complexities of Lebanese politics and society, will now be kicked into touch. And the breaking of a supposed Syria-Iran axis is now less likelu than a dynamic in which engagement with both Damascus and Tehran takes place.

In 2003, chatter in Washington was "Baghdad, Then Turn Left". That thought of rolliing regime change can now be consigned to the dustbin of George W. Bush's history. It's envoys, not tanks, that are the talismen of this New Middle East Order.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Updates on US Foreign Policy (21 February)

Latest Post: Atoms of Fear - Reality Check on That Iranian Nuclear Programme
Latest Post: Obama Administration to Detainees in Afghanistan - You Have No Rights
Latest Post: Secret Britain-Iran Talks in 2005 on Iraq, Tehran Nuclear Programme?



Evening Update: Pakistani Government officials say militants in Pakistan's Swat Valley have agreed to a "permanent cease-fire".

Afternoon Update: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has met Chinese leaders in Beijing, stating, ""It is essential that the United States and China have a positive, cooperative relationship." Clinton also put priorities in order: while she had discussed human rights matters with President Hu Jintao, "Human rights cannot interfere with the global economic crisis, the global climate change crisis and the security crises."

Morning Update (8:30 a.m. GMT; 3:30 a.m. Washington): In a step that was foreshadowed by Syrian President Bashir al-Assad (pictured) in his interview with The Guardian of London, the US will resume direct talks with Damascus this week. The State Department's Acting Assistant Secretary for the Near East, Jeffrey Feltman, has requested a meeting with the Syrian Ambassador to the US, Imad Moustapha.

State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said, "The meeting is an opportunity for dialogue to discuss our concerns with the Syrians," Duguid said. "There remain key differences between our governments."

Three NATO coalition soldiers were killed by an improvised explosive device on Friday in Uruzgan province in Afghanistan.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (18 January)

Latest Post: Is Israel Winning A Covert War Against Iran? - An Alternative View
Latest Post: Update - The US Airbases Inside Pakistan
Latest Post: War on Terror Watch: Guantanamo Guard Brandon Neely Interview
Latest Post: Fudging the Decision - The Obama Statement on The Troop Increase in Afghanistan

Current Obamameter Reading: Forecast Uncertain



Afternoon Update (5 p.m.): All's Well That Ends Well. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says, "The tension the Afghan government had with the U.S. government is now over." Last week Karzai was the leader that Washington was going to push aside, but all it took, apparently, was the addition of Afghans to the US strategic review and a phone call from President Obama to make everything right:

"The tension was over civilian casualties and uncoordinated operations by foreign troops. From now on, no foreign troop operations will be uncoordinated with Afghan forces.

12:20 p.m. Video footage has confirmed that a US airstrike in Afghanistan on Monday, which the US military claimed had killed "Taliban", left at least one child dead. Afghan officials claim that 12 civilians --- six women, twq children, and four men --- died in the attack.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today.

8 a.m. Speaking of Iraq, "a senior Administration official" is putting out the story that Obama will decide within weeks, "not days or months", on the drawdown of combat troops.
7:35 a.m. Oh, to be a fly on the wall: Vice President Joe Biden has a closed-door meeting with the departing US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, today.

Crocker has been actively backing the US military as it tries to undercut the Obama plan to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, and he was also a vocal critic of Biden's post-2003 proposal for a "federal" Iraq divided amongst Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish areas.

7:20 a.m. A far-from-incidental footnote to the news of the troop increase. Yesterday President Obama spoke with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the first time since his Inauguration. No details on the talk, but I assume that Obama, having joined in his Administration's public blasting of Karzai over the last month, was trying to smooth relations as the American plans unfold.

Morning Update (6:15 a.m. GMT; 1;15 a.m. Washington): The headlines this morning are of President Obama's decision to increase US troops in Afghanistan, which we evaluated last night. The total appears to be just under 21,000 troops, if the Army brigade sent out to Afghanistan last month is included; the military request was for 30,000. The breakdown includes:

An Army brigade of about 3700 troops in eastern Afghanistan (already deployed);
8000 Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina;
An Army "Stryker" brigade of 4000 troops;
5000 support troops.

Our evaluation is unchanged: contrary to the media reports you will get today, Obama has not indicated a clear strategy with this decision, and I even doubt that the decision has been prompted by the fear of a Taliban "spring offensive". It is motivated more by the recognition that he cannot hold out any longer against the military's request, for the sake of harmony within his Administration and for domestic opinion. The strategic front is still the 60-day review which is now being led by Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and Obama campaign advisor Bruce Riedel, with supposed Afghan participation.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (18 February)

Evening Update (7 p.m.): As the Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza stall, inevitably Egypt's push for Palestinian "reconciliation" --- if it had any chance of success --- collapses. The Egyptian state news agency MENA is reporting, "Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation talks between Palestinian groups have been delayed to allow for more consultations."

2:30 p.m. Now Here's A Coincidence. On the same day that headlines are made over Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's encouragement of dialogue with the US, the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz features a story alleging that Syria has stepped up production of chemical weapons.

2:20 p.m. And That, For Now, Is That. Hamas has rejected Israel's precondition of a prisoner swap, including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, for a Gaza settlement.



12:20 p.m. The Israeli daily Ma'ariv claims that chief negotiator Amos Gilad has criticised Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for linking an agreement on Gaza to a prisoner exchange involving soldier Gilad Shalit: "I don't understand what it is that they're trying to do. To insult the Egyptians? We've already insulted them. It's madness. It's simply madness. Egypt has remained almost our last ally here."

11:20 a.m. No Agreement. As we projected, the Israeli Cabinet has set the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit as a precondition for a settlement over Gaza. This now means that the arrangement of a prisoner swap has to be established for any agreement between Tel Aviv and Hamas.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today. (cross-posted from Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy thread)

8:15 a.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in southern Israel.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m Israel/Palestine): I could almost cut-and-paste the update from yesterday. While movement is awaited from Tel Aviv today on the proposed Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangements, Israeli planes have bombed several tunnels around Rafah as well as a Hamas post in Khan Younis. This is the standard retaliation for the firing of a mortar round into Israel on Tuesday night.