Twisting the Syria Tale: The Suspected Missile Facility

Hours after we posted an analysis of Washington's engagement with Syria, the story started fluttering across the Internet that Damascus had built a missile facility on the site of the alleged nuclear plant bombed by Israel in October 2007.

According to sources, Syrian representative Ibrahim Othman (pictured) told members of the International Atomic Energy Agency about the facility. He was responding to a question if there was a nuclear operation, but he did not disclose if the missile facility was operational or when it had been constructed.

Motive? It could be that Othman was simply responding to the call in the IAEA's report for Syria to be more forthcoming about its plans and activities. He could have been throwing up a screen to cover any resumption of a nuclear programme. Damascus may have been striking a tough pose in advance of any talks with Israel or the US.

But what about the other side of the equation --- who leaked the story and why? Again, no answers here, only a range of possibilities. Those seeking engagement with Syria may have putting Damascus on notice that this would far from a no-cost process; President Bashir al-Assad would have to recognise that his country and its military plans were still under scrutiny.

Or, of course, those opposed to any rapprochement with Syria --- for all the political calculations that point towards the value of that course --- may have ensured that Othman's disclosure was circulated.

Watch this space.

Comments

[UJ]

In November 2007 I wrote about the possibility of a missile factory at the Syrian site.

"The notion that the Syrian facility was a bomb-assembly plant, as opposed to a nuclear reactor, seems a lot more reasonable to me. While satellite imagery shows it to have extremely cursory similarities to nuclear sites in North Korea, the Syrian facility looks to me a lot more like the various rocket and missile development centers here in my hometown of Huntsville, Alabama. For instance, examine the rocket testing facilities at Wiley Labs [http://tinyurl.com/bucnlr] Compare them with images of the Syrian installation [http://tinyurl.com/2r4wpf]. The design of the Syrian facility begins to make more sense. The likelihood that the Syrians constructed a rudimentary rocket development facility is much higher than the possibility of the Syrians somehow developing nuclear technology with no thermal emissions, visible output, or ventilation."

I theorized that any traces of radiation discovered at the site were not from Syrian reactors, but rather from Israeli munitions.

"[It] explains the surreal discretion and silence from the Israeli government immediately following the strike. The Israelis will gladly comment about Iranian or Iraqi or anyone else’s nuclear weapons. What they won’t do is comment on Israeli nuclear weapons"

Further, the implication of Syrian nukes was "to head off public opinion in case any government or international institution cried foul over sudden signs of radiation."

The rest of my terribly crude, yet somewhat viable, analysis can be found at my personal blog here http://tinyurl.com/ckz93u

[Scott Lucas]

Excellent blog which is still relevant....