The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 February): The Cairo Talks

Afternoon Update (3:25 p.m. GMT): US envoy George Mitchell has embarked on his second tour of the Middle East, meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in separate meetings. 

Earlier, Mitchell was in Ankara to ensure Turkish leaders, who had criticised Israel over its conduct in the Gaza War, were on board: "Turkey is a crucial ally of the United States and an important force for peace and security in the Middle East."

This is almost a daily ritual. Two rockets fired into Israel; Israel strikes smuggling tunnels around Rafah.

Morning Update (11 a.m. GMT; 1 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Palestinian "reconciliation" talks, involving a dozen groups but with most attention focused on Hamas and Fatah, have opened in Cairo. Egypt, after the failure of its strategy in the Gaza conflict is hoping to recover a prime position in the region with a successful outcome; its head of intelligence, Omar Suleiman (pictured), told delegates,

Everyone is looking toward you ... and hanging their hopes on you. So do not prolong the disagreement and deepen the division. Unite ranks to fulfill the hopes of all for an independent Palestinian state.

Fatah, with the Palestinian Authority's legal and political mandate in the West Bank in jeopardy, is pressing for a quick agreement on a new Palestinian government; Hamas is signalling that it will seek a longer process.

Meanwhile, in Israel, it appears that any prospect of a coaltion government of Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, and Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, has been doomed over differences on a two-state Israel-Palestine solution. Livni is insisting on a clear settlement; Netanyahu is holding out against it. Former foreign minister and Likud negotiator Silvan Shalom told Army Radio:

There is across-the-board agreement on Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas but there is a big gap between Kadima and Likud on the two states for two people. It's unsolvable.

Damascene Conversions: The Engagement of Syria

Joshua Landis has a complementary (and complimentary) perspective on Tisdall's analysis on Syria Comment.

Simon Tisdall, writing in The Guardian of London on Monday, offered a valuable analysis of the recent dynamics surrounding US-Syrian relations and events in the Middle East. Tisdall noted (rightly, in my opinion) the "realist" outlook of Obama and Co. and suggested that "improved US relations with Syria could hold the key" three vital issues: avoidance of military confrontation with Iran, management of the Iraq withdrawal, "and some kind of half-credible peace process between Israel and its Arab neighbours". He supported this reading with the signals of engagement: Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's interviews welcoming a US "re-entry" into the Middle East peace process, Senator John Kerry's visit to Damascus last week, and conciliatory words from Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.

What can and should be added to Tisdall's analysis are the recent events that have not only promoted this engagement but strengthened Syria's position in negotiations. In December 2008, the foundations for direct Israel-Syria talks had been laid but the wider context for the diplomacy was still the call for Damascus to end its support of groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas and to limit, if not cut, its ties with Iran.

Then the Olmert Government decided to gamble with the invasion of Gaza. The direct talks with Syria were suspended of course, alienating Turkey in the process, as Tel Aviv effectively hand-in-hand with Egypt and probably Saudi Arabia on the challenge to Hamas.

The significance was not only that this challenge failed but that it spurred a re-alignment which put Syria in the Middle Eastern ascendancy. By giving vocal and visible support to Hamas, Assad set himself up as the defender of Arab resistance to Israeli aggression, a position buttressed by the damage to Egypt's reputation. With Turkey and Iran recognising that position, as they quickly sent representatives to Damascus, and with platforms such as the Qatar Summit, the Syrians could look to a reconfigured diplomatic scene in the aftermath of Gaza.

Few have noted, for example, that there is no more talk of bringing Syrian leaders to account for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri in 2005. It is also notable that no one, especially the US, is making a fuss about the alleged Syrian nuclear facility destroyed by Israel in October 2007, even though an International Atomic Energy Agency report last week pointed to the presence of uranium.

Instead, renewed Israeli-Syrian talks are being pursued so vigorously that Uzi Mahnaimi, who should be considered more a conduit for the Israeli military and intelligence services than a journalist for The Sunday Times, is writing: "Reports compiled by Mossad, the overseas spy agency, and by military intelligence, that strongly advocate opening negotiations with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria."

Which brings us back to the wider of the Damascene conversion of Gaza into a re-aligned position not only on its direct relations with Tel Aviv but on relations with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Tehran. Tisdall sees a trade-off: a new Israeli Government will have to engage in meaningful talks with Syria to maintain its isolation of Hamas: "If, as seems likely, [Benjamin Netanyahu] obstructs the Palestinian track, the Likud leader may have to give ground elsewhere, literally."

That might have been possible up to December, but no longer. Syria now has the cards for its territorial aims vis-a-vis Israel but for an inclusion of Hamas in the discussions on Palestine. The attempt to curb Hezbollah through talks with Damascus, which always was a curious exercise mssing the complexities of Lebanese politics and society, will now be kicked into touch. And the breaking of a supposed Syria-Iran axis is now less likelu than a dynamic in which engagement with both Damascus and Tehran takes place.

In 2003, chatter in Washington was "Baghdad, Then Turn Left". That thought of rolliing regime change can now be consigned to the dustbin of George W. Bush's history. It's envoys, not tanks, that are the talismen of this New Middle East Order.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (20 February)

Evening Update: The wrangling over the formation of a new government in Israel continues. Meanwhile in the UK it has emerged that 400 BBC staff have signed a petition in protest at BBC Director General Mark Thompson's decision not to air the DEC's Gaza appeal.

3.30 p.m. GMT / 5.30 p.m. Israel/Palestine: A spokesman for Hamas has denied that it gave a letter for President Obama to Senator John Kerry yesterday, but at the same time stressed that Hamas is "open to hold dialogue with any country and our only enemy is the Zionist occupation."

Afternoon Update : The BBC reports that Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu will form the new Israeli cabinet. CNN also carries the story, and suggests that the support of other right-wing parties such as Yisrael Beytenu and the Orthodox Shas movement will allow Netanyahu to build a coalition.

Netanyahu has told reporters he wants to form a unity coalition with Kadima and Labour: "I call on Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni and Labour Party chairman Ehud Barak and I say to them -- let's unite to secure the future of the State of Israel. I ask to meet with you first to discuss with you a broad national unity government for the good of the people and the state."

Morning Update (8 a.m. GMT; 10 a.m. Israel/Palestine): No progress in Israel-Gaza talks with the continuing stalemate over the precondition of a prisoner swap including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured). Senior Hamas official Mahmoud az-Zahar has tried to press Tel Aviv and secure Hamas' relations with Egypt, claiming that Cairo and the Gazan leadership are in agreement over the prisoner issue.

Two rockets landed near Sderot in southern Israel on Thursday night.

In an interesting intervention over recent Israeli-Turkish tensions, Congressman Robert Wexler visited Turkish officials and, on CNN-Turk, underlined the importance of Turkish-American relations. He warned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to leave behind his criticism of Israel's Gaza policy at the Davos Summit. Wexler said, “The close relationship with Israel is not going to change after taking over of the administration by President Obama. In the Middle East, whether in humanitarian or in security areas, Washington is going to continue standing by Israel.”

We remember Mr. Wexler in 2006 when Erdogan met with Hamas officials in Ankara. He urgently came to Turkey and warned Ankara in order to stop that unilateral political initiative that was not approved by American, European and Israeli leaders. This time, his warning is perceived as a much significant one, especially by the bureaucratic circles whilst anti-Israeli discourses backed up by the walkout in Davos may lead to a crisis among Israel, American, Turkey, and American Jewish lobbies in prior to the coming of a proposal concerning 'the approval of Armenian genocide' to the House of Representatives.

Containing Conflict: Update on Israel, Turkey, and Gaza

In his daily updates, Scott Lucas referred to an "escalation" of the political tensions between Israel and Turkey after the comments of Israeli Major General Avi Mizrahi questioning Turkey's Kurdish, Armenian and Cyprus policies. For me, however, the significance is that, after the Turkish Military`s General Staff warned that Mizrahi's statements could harm the relations between Turkey and Israel, the Israeli army disowned Mizrahi's statements. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, Mizrahi`s remarks did not reflect the official views of the army.

The episode shows again that, despite political conflict and individual statements such as Mizrahi's, Israeli and Turkish armies do not have the luxury of tolerating any interference that can harm the special relationship between their institutions.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (15 February)

Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m.): Israeli officials say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (pictured) told Cabinet colleagues on Sunday that kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit must "come home" before there is any opening of border crossings, a central demand by Hamas for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party, has ruled out a coaliation government with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, which finished a narrow second in last Tuesday's election. Livni wrote in private note to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, captured by television cameras, ""I have no intention of being in a unity government headed by Bibi [Netanyahu] --- and don't hint that."

Meanwhile, a clear sign that the Palestinian Authority is in trouble as it tries to maintain some position in Gaza. PA leader Salam Fayyad says that salaries of the Authority's employees in the area are not being paid so the money can be used for aid projects. The PA has been hindered by Israel's restriction on the movement of cash into Gaza, and its workers have now declared a strike.
Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The political tensions between Israel and Turkey, which we have followed closely in recent weeks, escalated yesterday after an Israeli general told an international conference that Turkey should "look in the mirror" after its criticism of Israeli action in Gaza. General Mizrahi pointed to Ankara's treatment of its Kurdish minority and the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus.

Although the Israeli Defense Forces reprimanded Avi Mizrahi (pictured) for his remarks, the Turkish Foreign Ministry requested "an urgent explanation" from the Israeli Ambassador.