What Israel Lost in Gaza: Talks with Syria, A Relationship with Turkey?

To my knowledge, this story from Ha'aretz on Friday has received little notice outside Israel:

Israel and Syria were about to announce that they would speak directly a week before the fighting in Gaza broke out, a Turkish official said. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had spoken with Syrian President Bashar Assad (pictured) during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Ankara, and had mediated in crafting a joint statement.

But a few days later, while still awaiting Olmert's approval for the statement, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and Erdogan felt betrayed.

Now it could well be that Turkey is playing up the story to cover Erdogan's very public denunciation of Israeli actions. And it may be the case that, after making political calculations, Damascus will decide that the benefits of coming back to the negotiating table with Israel outweigh or even balance its backing of Hamas. As my colleague Ali Yenidunya has argued, there may be no long-term cost to the Israeli-Turkish alliance.

For the moment, however, let's note that the Israeli Government was so driven to take action in Gaza that it was willing to risk a peace process to ease tensions on its northern border and a strategic relationship with Ankara. It will be some time before we know what motives lay behind this gamble --- regime change? a strike at Hamas as a strike against Tehran? a grand scheme in collusion with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and, possibly, Saudi Arabia? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's attempt to wipe away the stain of Lebanon 2006?

It is almost definite, however, that given the stakes involved, Operation Cast Lead was never just a response to rocket fire.B

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (13 February)

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1:55 p.m. An Israeli airstrike has killed one Gazan militant and critically wounded another. Two other people reported injured.

1:45 p.m. It looks like a prisoner swap involving Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is part of the cease-fire package. Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) is quoted by an Egyptian news agency, ""We want the release of our detainees in exchange for Shalit. If Israel agrees to our list, we will make the deal."

Hamas has submitted a list of 1400 prisoners; diplomatic sources say Israel is willing to free closer to 1000.

10:20 a.m. A series of details, some of them conflicting, are emerging over the possible Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangement.

All accounts agree the time period is 18 months but the status of border crossings is unclear. Hamas has demanded a full opening, but the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot is reporting that Israel will only about 80 percent of goods to pass. Prohibited items would include "pipes, machines and other raw materials liable to be used to manufacture rockets and explosives", and the two sides are still at odds over cement, concrete and construction iron.

Reuters is reporting that the crossings will have international monitors and also some Palestinian Authority guards. Turkish forces may also be involved.

There are also differences in reporting on a possible prisoner swap involving kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has denied any arrangement involving Shalit, but Reuters, citing "Western and Palestinian officials", says a prisoner exchange is part of the deal.

7:40 a.m. Three Qassam rockets have hit the western Negev in Israel.

Morning Update (5:55 a.m. GMT; 7:55 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Hamas' declaration that a cease-fire agreement with Israel can be reached within 72 hours, which we noted in our last update yesterday, continues to be the top development. Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) says the proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire with opening of all border crossings.

The key question, of course, is whether Tel Aviv has indeed signalled its readiness that it will sign or whether Hamas is taking this public line to press the Olmert Government into acceptance.

Elsewhere, Egypt has seized 2200 tons of food and medical supplies that the Doctors' Syndicate was trying to take into Gaza and arrested two members of the aid committee. The seizure is both part of Egypt's general campaign to keep pressure on Hamas by limiting aid and part of Egyptian internal politics. The committee and the arrested men are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt.

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9:45 p.m. Still pursuing a cease-fire agreement with Israel, a senior Hamas delegation led by Moussa Abu Marzouk will hold talks on Thursday with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman on Thursday.

9:40 p.m. Philip Rizk, the protestor detained by Egyptian authorities after his walk raising money for Gazans, has been released after more than four days of round-the-clock interrogation.

9:30 p.m. A bit of proxy battling over the Palestinian movement in Ankara today. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak represented the Palestinian Authority side of the talks, pressing for confirmation of the Palestinian Liberation Organization as the legitimate umbrella group. Turkey was more muted in its statements but continues to press for greater Hamas participation.



4:25 p.m. The Hamas government in Gaza has ordered international and local aid organisations providing emergency assistance to coordinate relief efforts with it, claiming "supplies brought in from abroad were being sold on the market".

3:55 p.m. Senior Israeli officials have insisted that talks on an Israel-Gaza cease-fire, mediated by Egypt, will continue despite uncertainty over the next Government: ""The current government headed by Ehud Olmert has full authority until a new government is sworn in. You cannot have a power vacuum."

3:45 p.m. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni has met Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the "far-right" Israel-Beitenu party, to discuss a possible coalition. Kadima has a projected 29 seats in the Knesset; Israel-Beitenu is a surprise third with 15.

Benjamin Netanyahu, head of Likud (28 seats) has met leaders of the ultra-orthodox Shas party (11 seats).

8:15 a.m. The Palestinian Authority has asked the International Criminal Court in The Hague to investigate allegations of war crimes by the Israeli military in the Gaza conflict.

8 a.m. On Tuesday, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon criticised Israel's continued blocking of aid into Gaza. Ban said one million Gazans needed relief supplies, but Tel Aviv was only allowing one crossing to open with aid for about 30,000 people.

Ban also confirmed that a survey team would be investigating Israeli attacks on UN facilities during the Gaza conflict.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Now the real politics begins in Israel.

Little change overnight in the forecast of results. Out of 120 seats in the Knesset, Kadima (Tzipi Livni) is projected to take 28 and Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) 27. Each of the two leading parties has claimed a mandate to govern, but each faces the reality of trying to forge a coaliation with the participation of other parties.

Of those parties, the "far-right" Israel-Beitenu of Avigdor Lieberman has emerged in third place with 15 projected seats, putting Labor --- the founding party of Israeli politics --- into fourth with 13.

With little resolved in Tel Aviv, perhaps the most significant reaction has come from Hamas. Spokesman Osama Hamdan has claimed that, with Israeli politics moving "to the right", the new Government will be led by "extremists". No surprise there, but Hamdan's follow-up is politically notable: he says the US Government's intervention is now essential for any political resolution.

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7:20 p.m. Desperate Words in a Desperate Position. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas may be pushing hard for a new arrangement with Tel Aviv, but present/former West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad sees no hope:

I do not know of a single Israeli politician from any party who I would expect to offer a reasonable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. All of them want a partial solution, or they aim to improve the face and the conditions of the occupation while the settlements continue.

Actually Abbas, with Israel holding Palestinian Authority aid and payments to Gaza hostage, is sounding desperate as well:

The Palestinian people suffered from the most ruthless and barbaric onslaught for three weeks. We want aid shipments to speedily reach the Palestinian people who are in dire need. So far, the shipments have met just 20 percent of the actual need.

6:30 p.m. It Had to Happen. Egypt is alleging that the $11 million confiscated from Hamas delegates, seized as they returned to Gaza from the Cairo talks, was provided by Tehran. It is "only a small portion of the large amounts of money Iran has funneled to Hamas over the last week".

No evidence was provided for the claim.



1:15 p.m. There are reports, from Hamas sources and witnesses, that Hamas military leader Mahmoud az-Zahar is part of the delegation en route to Egypt. If true, this would point to the possibility of a critical point in the talks; it is the first time that az-Zahar has been seen in public since the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the attempt on his life by Israeli forces.

11:20 a.m. Ali Yenidunya has posted separately on the report of the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem on Israel's human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank.

10 a.m. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday and will meet other Turkish officials today. The statements on the talks was anodyne: "The latest efforts to secure unity among Palestinian groups were reviewed thoroughly."

9:30 a.m. We've posted separately on what, in our view, is a deplorable attempt to play down civilian deaths from Israeli fire. Israel did not directly hit a school/shelter; it just hit the civilians killed outside it.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We ended last evening on a pessimistic note about any Israel-Gaza settlement but there are a couple of interesting, more optimistic twists this morning.

Some Israeli officials are putting out the confirmation that Hamas is not responsible for the recent firings of rockets into southern Israel; instead, the launches are being carried out by Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, and, yes, Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah.

We already reported this. The significance is that Israeli officials will give up the public, inaccurate line blaming Hamas. This opens up some space for continuing discussions.

Which, in turn, points to the report in Israeli media that Hamas officials are returning to Cairo for talks on Sunday. A spokesman told YNet News, "The issues still being debated are fundamental but small, and...the organization would strive to prevent a relapse into fighting."

CNN-Turk also reports that Turkey is holding talks in Damascus with Hamas officials on a prisoner swap releasing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (6 February)

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9:50 p.m. Israel has fired several missiles into southern Gaza near Rafah.

9:45 p.m. Hamas official Osama al-Muzaini says there has been no progress in talks with Israel over the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has demanded the freeing of 1400 Palestinian inmates, including 450 long-term prisoners, for Shalid, but Israel has agreed to only 71 of the 450.



4:15 p.m. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has restated the organisation's position on an Israel-Gaza settlement: ""We will not accept a truce unless it was in return for lifting the siege, opening the border crossings and acceleration of the reconstruction of Gaza."

Translation: unless Israel makes unexpected concessions via Amos Gilad in Cairo today, the Hamas delegation returning to Cairo on Saturday will reject any proposed deal. Whether that is effectively the end of the Cairo-based negotiations, or whether they resume after the Israeli elections on Tuesday, remains to be seen.

3 p.m. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has halted operations after the second seizure of its supplies by Hamas this week.

2:15 p.m. Egypt continues to ratchet up pressure on Hamas and Gaza at the border. The Jordanian Secretary of the Nurses Union, Salman Al-Masa’id, has been arrested and held without charge. Al-Masa'id was part of a Jordanian delegation helping with medical care in Gaza; his "crime" was to remain when the rest of the delegation left earlier this week.

12:30 p.m. An extraordinary development over Israel's "permission" for the Palestinian Authority to bring $43 million into Gaza to pay its employees so they will not show up for their jobs, thus hindering Hamas. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hailed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as "courageous" for allowing the movement of money.

Remember that $43 million is only part of $60 million the PA wished to transfer, that the PA is supposedly the Palestinian faction being backed by Israel and the US to take over in Gaza, and that Israel has made no move to support the PA's announcement of $600 million in reconstruction aid for Gaza. Despite this, Olmert faced opposition from both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who argued the money would find its way to Hamas.

11:20 a.m. A prosecutor's office in Ankara has launched an investigation as to whether Israel's invasion of Gaza involves "genocide, torture and crimes against humanity". The enquiry was started after a complaint by an Islamic human rights group naming Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

9 a.m. Diplomatic Development to Watch. A day after a Hamas delegation left Egypt without agreement on proposals for an Israel-Gaza settlement, the chief Israeli negotiator, Amos Gilad, is in Cairo.

7:45 a.m. Two rockets launched from Gaza have hit southern Israel.

7:40 a.m. Irony of the Day. The Israeli blockade of Gaza, supposedly to stem violent attacks, has halted a United Nations programme promoting non-violence amongst Gazan youth. The programme cannot get the paper it needs for leaflets.

UN official John Ging said, "I'm being obstructed in printing out the human rights curriculum that we're all so proud of having developed here and that is more important now than ever before to get on with the teaching of the responsibilities that go with human rights and to focus on making sure that these kids grow up with the right values."

7:30 a.m. A poll of almost 1200 Palestinians increased a sharp rise in support for Hamas and a decline in support for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza conflict. We've posted a summary in a separate entry.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israel has released 10 activists and journalists who were aboard a Lebanese ship intercepted yesterday as it tried to deliver aid to Gaza. The whereabouts of others amongst the 18 on the ship is still unknown. An Al Jazeera journalist says, "[The Israelis] blinded our eyes, bounded our hands, kept us in uncomfortable conditions for one hour ... they also told us not to communicate with each other in Arabic."