The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman

2130 GMT: For What It's Worth. The Supreme Leader's office has issued a statement saying that Ayatollah Khamenei is jolly happy that today's gathering has shown the unity of Iran in the face of the "arrogance" of Western nations.

2100 GMT: A Correction and a Question. One of the hot stories this morning was that reformist Mohammad Reza Khatami and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi, the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, had been briefly detained before being released with their promise they would not return to the streets (see 0815 and 0832 GMT).

A reliable EA source from Iran offers this, based on inside information, "The husband and wife were led to their car by security forces in plain clothes to leave the area for their own security."

But that in turn raises a question, "Security from whom?"

NEW Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
NEW Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)
NEW Latest Iran Video: 22 Bahman – TV Coverage
NEW Latest Iran Video: President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
NEW Iran: A Song for 22 Bahman
NEW Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to The Post-Election Conflict
A Song for Whomever: “Wise Up”
Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman
UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (10 February): Mousavi, Pink Floyd, & 22 Bahman

2000 GMT: We have just posted our special analysis of 22 Bahman, "Ahmadinejad Wins Ugly (This Time)". I hope it takes discussion beyond today to the political complexities of weeks and months ahead: it is one of the toughest pieces I've ever had to write.


1710 GMT: And Another Re-Assessment. Setareh Sabety sends in her thoughts:

A journalist friend asked me what I thought of today's events and I thought I'd share it with everyone. This is just a tired witnesses assessment of a day that is still not over and where not all reports and clip have yet arrived.

Today did not seem as big as Ashura [27 December] at all, although there are some reports [of continuing protests] and Jaras is tellling people to assemble in the evening. People have been prevented from going near SedaSima (IRIB) or Evin (Prison). The clips show such a huge lack of coordination and street-level leadership. The students that seemed to do the organizing in 16 Azar (7 December) are now all in jail it seems. So unless dramatic new footage comes in or the scattered protests are prolonged into the night, then it is a slight disappointment for the greens and not as huge a protest as predicted.

The big points won are 1) the brutal treatment of (Zahra) Rahnavard and (Mehdi) Karroubi gives them more revolutionary stature and 2) the regime did not succeed in outshining the demonstrators because once again it had to resort to violence and not just outnumbering the protesters. The news of the brutality will ruin the image of a populist government that the regime wants to display. This is a regime that prides itself in its ability to rally masses on these occasions. Today it has lost more credibility.

If no further developments or revelations occur, the opposition needs to rethink its strategy of demonstrating on official and permitted days when the regime has time to plan and clamp down on its moves. Also it will become more apparent that in the face of such regime tactics and brutality more organization and leadership is needed. We have lost our fear but we need to know where to go with our new-found courage!

1700 GMT: Pedestrian passes on a letter from a friend who was at Azadi Square:

The greens made a stupid miscalculation to want to “take over Azadi” and this illusion was further enforced by individuals abroad [e.g., Sazegara]. State security and supporters had taken over the area, and it was impossible to have a significant impact there. I of course did not see the entire city, but the turnout of the greens felt very low. We needed at least 400,000 to show a significant impact, and thus far, it does not feel that way.

This is disastrous. The only real power the greens have had up to now is by showing their numbers on the streets. Now if with their two week campaign of terror, they’ve actually managed to get everyone to stay home, they will start putting even more pressure on activists and opposition groups … the few who are left out of prison that is.

I feel nauseated, and very scared.

1655 GMT: We have posted Tehran Bureau's interview with Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, about the attack on his father's entourage, the arrest of his brother, and the events of 22 Bahman.

1600 GMT: In addition to the Shiraz arrests (1500 GMT), Rah-e-Sabz reports more than 100 arrested in Mashhad.

1540 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz says clashes continue in parts of Tehran, including Arya Shahr and Ferdows Boulevard.

1500 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that more than 20 people were arrested in Shiraz today.

1450 GMT: Mousavi's Day. Kalemeh reports that Mir Hosein Mousavi tried to join the rally with people on Azadi Street when plainclothes militia, special forces, and Government supporters with batons surrounded him.

1415 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, was beaten in Sadeghieh Square by a group of basijis. People helped her scape by making a human chain around her.

No indication if Mir Hossein Mousavi was present.

1340 GMT: MediaWatch. Islamic Republic News Agency, down yesterday, is back on-line but Fars News is out of action.

1251 GMT: Well, That Settles That. Press TV's website tries to put everything in order in a few sentences:

Millions of Iranians across the country have taken to the streets to celebrate the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution....In the capital Tehran, an extraordinarily high number of people from all walks of life marched across the city and gathered at Azadi (Freedom) Square to take part in the festivities. They were carrying banners denouncing the enemies of the country....

A few hundred of supporters of Iran's defeated presidential candidates also rallied in Tehran.

Press TV's broadcast coverage, which now features nuggets such as a tourist from Brazil and vistor from "Oregon" being surprised and amazed at the pro-Government crowds, is presenting the opposition rallies with shots of a few people milling about in a square in western Tehran. Snuck in is a reference to both Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi being seen at the demonstrations.

1250 GMT: Service Announcement. Remember, folks, if everything is running too slow here, we have set up a back-up site for the LiveBlog.


1240 GMT: How Big Was the Security Presence to Prevent a March In Tehran? Have a look at our thumbnail picture from Sadeghiyeh Square, which was to be the start point for a move on Azadi Square and which was where Mehdi Karroubi was turned back.

1230 GMT: Karroubi's Son on the Attack. Hossein Karroubi, son of key opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, has given details of the assault on his father's entourage this morning. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Hossein Karroubi declared, "I witnessed the most brutal treatment of people in the past eight months today."

1225 GMT: Yes, Hashemi Was There. Iranian Labour News Agency runs the picture (see left) that proves former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was at the official rally today.

1210 GMT: The State of Play. In Tehran, it is a case of the regime's one-off Big Bang with the Azadi Square rally vs. the smaller but still important fireworks that have occurred throughout the capital and will continue through the day.

Elsewhere, we are now ready to confirm opposition demonstrations in Isfahan, Mashhad, Ahvaz, and Shiraz.

Peyke Iran has a summary of clashes in Tehran and Isfahan.

1145 GMT: EPersian radio --- a source that we treat with caution because claims can be exaggerated --- reports that the crowd in Tabriz is chanting: "Today is day of blood; Yazid (the caliph who killed Imam Hussein; take your pick who the modern equivalent is) will have to go!"

1135 GMT: Government forces are mobilized against protesters gathering on Yadegar Imam Road.

1130 GMT: Member of Green movement in Shiraz: heavy security presence, at least 20 people arrested.

Mehdi Karoubi's son confirms to CNN his father was attacked. Doctor treating him for tear gas burns to his eyes.

1125 GMT: Female protesters arrested in Vali Asr and Haft-e Tir.

1110 GMT: There are many injuries in Esfahan.

1100 GMT: Clashes have now spread to the northern parts of Tehran.

1045 GMT: What We're Watching. Clashes continue across Tehran, especially in the north of the city. This is likely to be a long day, and no predictions should be made at the moment.

Scott Lucas is off to do BBC World just after 11:30. Tricia Sutherland and Ali Yenidunya will be minding the EA shop.

1015 GMT: Clashes are escalating at Amir Abad, close to the main Tehran University dormitories.

1005 GMT: North Tehran is the scene of "sporadic and at times heavy" clashes, especially at Vanak Square. That is notable, since Vanak had been relatively free of clashes in demonstrations in November and December, including Ashura.

1000 GMT: Farda News is reporting that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani participated in the rally today at Enghelab and Palestine Streets.

0940 GMT: The mainstream site Mardomak is calling the security forces on Tehran's streets "akin to a military regime".

0920 GMT: Resources To Keep By Your Side. For those taking notes, an activist has posted a full paraphrase --- "10,834 characters, likely filled with typos, and relatively boring" --- of Ahmadinejad's speech.

And here is the map of the action today in Tehran:



0905 GMT: To Prove Our Analysis. An example of the hit-and-run confrontations comes from Rah-e-Sabz, which reports clashes between security forces and people trying to reach Azadi Square, as the crowds chant "Death to Dictator" and "Death to Khamenei".

Of course, none of this is making it onto State media, whose propaganda strategy is in overdrive. All of their coverage is focused on the rally in Azadi Square, with the theme being "Iran v. the West" (in other words, no mention as well as no images of internal conflict). Press TV is trotting on "analyst" after "analyst" talking about resistance to Western domination --- one example is the Beirut-based Franklin Lamb.

Two questions: 1) how long can this regime effort last, if the crowds have done their bit and are ready to go home? 2) what happens for the day, as opposition groups (whose size we cannot yet estimate) regroup and marches at different points through Tehran, even as the security forces try to prevent a single, large demonstration?

0900 GMT: Meanwhile, Back to the Real Story. So far, this morning is a repeat of the mornings of other protest days. While the regime tries to hold its showpiece rally, the priority of security forces is to prevent any mass gathering of opposition.

So the running violence throughout the capital is of Iranian security forces pushing back at crowds as they move towards squares. The most dramatic examples was the aggression against the entourages of Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami, but the episodes is being repeated in numerous places.

0855 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Showpiece. President's speech was 1 hour, 15 minutes, but you could pretty much wrap it up in the snippets we've posted below.

Key take-away: Ahmadinejad was almost entirely focused on the "external", with Great Iran v. Duplicitous/Evil/Scheming "West". He avoided the internal issues.

Press TV has followed the script, paying particular attention to the "20% uranium declaration" and the nuclear issue.

How does this play, not only with the "Iranian people" but with the opposition and his critics "within the establishment"? Wait and see.

0832 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi have confirmed that reformist leader Mohammad Reza Khatami and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi (the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini), have been released after a brief detention (see 0815 GMT). They have been warned not to return to the streets.

0830 GMT: President Ahmadinejad still going on about Iran v. The World: "Iran does not welcome confrontation....Obama should make great changes", etc., etc.

0827 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz now carries the report of Ali Karroubi's arrest (see 0805 GMT).

0825 GMT: And Ahmadinejad's Big Declaration? "The first batch of 20% uranium has been produced already."

0815 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz is claiming that Mohammad Reza Khatami, first Secretary-General of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front (and not to be confused with former President Khatami), and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi, the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, have been arrested. (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/10019/)

0810 GMT: That Ahmadinejad Speech. "World powers need us more than we need them."

0805 GMT: Urgent --- Ali Karroubi, son of Mehdi Karroubi has been arrested. The news has been confirmed by his brother, Hossein Karroubi.

0757 GMT: And Khatami? Parleman News is reporting that former President Mohammad Khatami was present in marches between Zanjan St and Azadi Square, supported by loud chants, but he was soon forced to pull back and leave after pressure from pro-Government force. (http://www.parlemannews.ir/index.aspx?n=8416)

0749 GMT: The Karroubi Attack. We are treated as confirmed, given the report from Fereshteh Ghazi on her Facebook page:

Karroubi was subject to aggression on Ashrafi Esfahani Street. Batons and "coloured bullets" were used to attack his bodyguards. Windows of his car smashed. He was forced to go back home in someone else's car. Karroubi was unscathed but unable to proceed."

Rah-e-Sabz also reports.

0748 GMT: More Ahmadinejad: "Domination of the world depends on control of energy. Imperialist Britain managed to subjugate most of the world in its empire through the cheap Middle Eastern energy. The engines of war were successful becuase they extracted and appropriated cheap Middle Eastern energy.

From a geopolitical standpoint, major potential is linked to our regime."

0745 GMT: Attack on Karroubi. The best report so far re the claimed assault on Mehdi Karroubi comes from a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist who talked to Karroubi's son: "Karroubi and his car came under attack by hardliners, people being beaten up."

Parleman News and Fereshteh Ghazi are now reporting the attack as well.

0730 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has begun his speech in Azadi Square. He has begun by praising 22 Bahman, declaring that "this Revolution goes beyond Iran's border....It affects the globe....The future of humanity is inter-connected."

Now Ahmadinejad is explaining why the "great powers" are against Iran.

0715 GMT: Press TV's correspondent in Azadi Square is going a bit over the top in the effort to show how massive this is for the regime: "Each year I see something more interesting....This year, in the beautiful skies, it's the skydivers. And the speaker is calling on the judiciary to take action on events that happened after elections."

0714 GMT: State media footage of President Ahmadinejad in Azadi Square:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0P629e7vGk[/youtube]

0710 GMT: State media is featuring film of large pro-Government crowds moving along routes to Tehran University and Azadi Square. No footage, however, from Sadeghieh Square.

0700 GMT: An EA correspondent, from reliable Tehran sources, reports heavy security presence in 7 Tir Square and Hafez Street, armed with batons but no visible firearms.

0650 GMT: Web Issues. The websites of Islamic Republic News Agency, which was taken off-line yesterday, or Press TV are not loading.

0645 GMT: Press TV is reporting President Ahmadinejad is at Azadi Square.

0640 GMT: There are reports of clashes at Sadeghieh Square, where Mehdi Karroubi was due to arrive about 10 minutes ago. These come from reliable Iranian activists, but we are treating with caution for the moment.

0620 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a witness, reports "pick-up trucks with speakers roaming streets blaring pro-govt slogans and songs".

0610 GMT: The Green site Rah-e-Sabz is reporting extensive deployment of security forces, including detachments in Amirabad Street and around the state television complex. (EA correspondents note that this probably should be Karegar rather than Amirabad Street.)

0600 GMT: Press TV and Fars are now putting out state media line: "People across Iran have begun celebrating the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution". Live shots of people standing about in Azadi Square. The studio anchor is on a "looped" script, repeating over and over the basics of 22 Bahman and "tens of millions" of Iranians coming out on this day to support the regime.

CNN International, in contrast to previous protest days, is already going big on its coverage. It's now running an extensive overview with interviewees like Mehdi Khalaji and Behzad Yaghmaian.

0550 GMT: Well, Press TV English hasn't quite gone to special coverage. It's showing "In Prison My Whole Life". Thought at first this might be a subversive reference to post-election detentions, but on second glance, looks like it is a study of US injustice.

0545 GMT: Reports, which we are checking, of several hundred gathered in Tabriz. People are on the move in Tehran, where it is 9:15 a.m.

0540 GMT: Activists reports that "Death to Dictator" is already being chanted by people gathered in the north and northwest of Azadi Square, the official gathering point for the pro-Government rally and the unofficial destination of the opposition marches.. Basij militia have gathered at bus stops at the northwest corner of Azadi Square. (iranstreets)

0530 GMT: Here we go. It is 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, and we, like many others, start the day with nervous expectation of what is to come.

Comments

[florence achard]

homylafayette:" dispel any preconceptions you may have about the crowd that was demonstrating. All the people that are shown on Iranian television are not regime supporters. "

...which shows there really is a problem with M's and K's strategy of calling their supporters to the street on days when pro-govt also demonstrate.
1) The presence of genuine protesters can be interpreted either way, depending on which side you stand;
2) plus, it makes it easy for security forces to control the streets since they can be prepared weeks in advance.
3) outsiders who are supportive of the movement are puzzled and confused.
4) if M's and K's real aim was to drown the movement, I fear they (almost) succeeded.

I say "almost" because once the seed of freedom has been sown, nohting can destroy it; tomorrow is another day.

Azadi for Iran

[The Latest from Iran (11 Febru]

[...] posted here:  The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman | Enduring … Share and [...]

[ange paris]

Setareh Sabeti jan
" the brutality will ruin the image of a populist government that the regime wants to display."
I agree with you, opposition has to play with this weakness of iranian regime; your whole point of view is well said, thank you .

[S]

I think this article describes the event today better than any other. http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5239736,00.html?maca=per-rss-per-all-1491-rdf

[pessimist]

I agree with some of what Adam says, the mistakes of the regime, but not so much about the mistakes of the 3 green leaders.

I and maybe others felt that from what had been happening in the lead-up, that maybe the orders would have been given to allow for peaceful protests. This could have been a good way to show the world that this regime is tolerant, and also to estimate the real numbers and its significance.

I don't think that anyone can blame the g leaders for having called for protests and participating themselves. If they hadn't people would have blamed them! and as for challenging the SL, they would no doubt be in jail.

The huge mistake of the regime is, knowingly, blatantly, in front of the world, to show only violence and a speech of hate.

What else can that do but diminish it's legitimacy ?

Tonight on main French TV, they showed a few seconds of his speech but then three of the protest videos, the beating up of a man, the huge crowd of armed security and another of crowds of protesters.

Make no mistake, the deeds of this regime are being talked about everywhere, not just on green blogs or twitter, although that is the base and the support. If AM and SL (if he's got any power left), think they've won anything, they are deluded.

And as for AM's speech of hate for the west, how can he bear to wear western clothes, use western technology ? Why doesn't he make all males wear persian costumes ? He is ridiculous in a jacket, shirt with no tie. Why do they allow american series on the TV, and western cinema ? Why does he use nuclear tech given to the Shah and why does he sell petrol to the west ? Why doesn't he just shut up with his hypocrisy ? As if we didn't notice.

[Bahman]

I apologize in advance for what may be perceived as my negative tone, which I see as consistent with my past comments and pragmatic....but here it goes:

Setting aside the tactical issues that would make some improvements in the results of demonstrations, unfortunately today confirmed my concerns in that aside from the non-traditionalist youth who have no worldly possessions to risk (aside from their lives of course), the opposition has not made a strong inroad in getting other segments of Iranian society to bravely stand up to the regime's brutality.

Regime's loyalists are still loyal, last summer's bystanders are still bystanders, and many of the educated professionals who initially had taken to the streets are not willing to continue to risk the little they have gained in economic and personal security to stand up against a brutal regime for an uncertain short-term victory.

On the plus side, today's outcome did reinforce the reality on the ground and why the step-by-step approach by the green leaders is the right one versus the wishful thought stated especially by disconnected monarchists, leftists, MKO, etc.

But the obvious question is: what now?

Since the regime has already restricted many freedoms and has made its brutality evident, I don't see the continuation of the restrictions and violence changing the landscape as it stands. Instead I think that the only two remaining opportunities lay in: 1) economics and 2) religion.

1) Economics: For the bystanders who are protecting their economic gains to be willing to confront the regime, their economic status must turn drastically worse than it is today. How can that happen? Drastic drop in oil price, drastic drop in oil revenue (blockade?), or severe import/export sanctions are the only alternatives that I can think of right now. Note: I'm not lobbying for any of these per se but stating the available alternatives.

2) for the regime loyalists (traditional religious families) to withdraw their support of the regime, either the regime must commit a major blunder (video of Ahmadinejad talking to the Hidden Imam, confirmed list of personal wealth of regime leaders) or the top clerics must come out in droves against them.

I think it will take some combination of all of the above to rid Iran of these fanatics.

[Bahman]

The obvious item that falls under my #2 category would be Rafsanjani revealing secrets detrimental to the coup leaders.

[kevina]

Again, will M & K still leave Khamenei alone after today? I'm not so sure.

[pessimist]

There are other forms of resistance, civil disobedience, strikes of one day, slow working, resistance in cyber world, sleaze revealed, I'm sure imagination of creative folks and using other place's experience will be useful.

[Bahman]

Maybe we are looking at this the wrong way. Maybe we should not be focused on overthrowing the regime and instead we should focus on outlasting them in a long battle of attrition.

There must be ways to increase the cost of governing the country. For example, since the government is so involved in the economy, people can become very serious about boycotting products/services that produce a profit for the regime and maximize buying the ones that they subsidize and therefore lose money on.

[pessimist]

Bahman, I wonder if people know about those things, who belongs to who. In fact, I've always thought that sanctions were not right, in all those countries, Irak, Cuba, simply because I believe that enabling wealth helps democratic leanings. Or it's either all out strikes that really bring in a crisis, or it must be other ways. Because sanctions always give the means for tyranic regimes to unify the people against the enemies.

ps I know that some wealthy and very wealthy regimes aren't democratic at all, much to my disgust.

[Megan]

From comments in this thread and others I think people who feel Green fell short on 22 Bahman are basing their assessments on their own set of goals and expectations rather than looking at the broader picture. So let me do the same.

My goal was and still is dissolution of Islamic Republic not in steps and not gradual but in one sweeping step. This is a tall order and I know that. But because it is a tall order I realize that many facets and factions of the society have to line up and converge. With that in mind I was not measuring the success of 22 Bahman in the number of Greens but rather with the level of their courage, enthusiasm, and perseverance. In addition, I was looking at the cross section of Iranian society among those who show up on 22 Bahman.

I have carefully looked at all videos that have been available so far and have compared and contrasted them not only with videos of past protests but also with government rally of today and here are my take aways.

1. People who showed up were as enthusiastic and as dedicated as they were last June. Regime supporters on the other hand seemed to be there in body but not in soul. Some regime supporters seemed to be completely disconnected and others were there to enjoy the free food.

2. Green demands were the same as those on Ashura, 16 Azar and 13 Abaan. They did not heed calls for acceptable chants. I thought that was encouraging.

3. Their level of disgust with the regime was the same. I expected to see more anger since regime has turned up the volume on its atrocities.

4. Their courage was the same. I was surprised with that since regime indiscriminately and preemptively has been arresting and threatening them with execution since Ashura.

My conclusion: Green Movement is alive and well but needs direction, foresight, plan and capable leader(s). Green Movement also needs participation from a larger cross section of the society, e.g. intellectuals, merchants (bazaar), and labor.

I said last summer that protest alone will not bring about a regime change in Iran and I still stand by that. I said nationwide strike was needed to bring the government to its knees and I still believe in that. I also said that unless a very large segment of the society suffers economically people will not be motivated to leave their homes to protest or go on strike and I still stand by that. Government in Iran owns 80 % of the economy and a nationwide and sustained strike will bring it to its knees. People will not go on strike unless they do not get wages and unable to feed their families.

The good news is Iran economy will crumble. The question is will it crumble soon enough while people still have the will and desire for change. And will the damage from implosion of the economy be orderly and not as devastating to make people fall for just any change. Jjumping in the shark infested water for the purpose of iputting out the fire is not a good option and Iranians did that in 1979.

I believe if the international community helps out with crippling sanctions, an orderly implosion of the economy will ensue and Iranians can do the rest. All and all I am optimistic that we will see the death of this regime.

Please do not be so hard on Greens. Put a word or two of encouragements in case they read this blog.

Long Live brave and proud people of Iran.

[kendall]

Since this whole thing is begining to esclalate a friend was wondering when some of the protesters would start using weapons. If the protesters are being executed what is there anything to lose....

[Bahman]

I cautioned in advance that my comment may sound negative. But that was not my intent at all, rather I saw it as a pragmatic perspective.

Those who again came to the streets today are extremely brave and those who did not have practical reasons for staying away.

So my intent was to open discussion on "what next?".

As much as I would love to see a one-step or short-term overthrow of this regime, I can't see it. I think it will a longer-term movement with multiple phases, with ups and downs, successes and disappintments.

I view severe economic sanctions as less likely to be implemented and more risky in terms of uncertainties on how the "non-opposition" segment will react to them.

The more probable catalyst to uniting all Iranians against the coup regime is a mass denunciation of the majority of the clerics against the coup gang. Those clerics have a significant influence over the regime's sincere followers. This would also be the most peaceful way of changing the minds of those traditional families who still believe in this regime's religious mantra.

That's where I see Rafsanjani with his rumored trough of regime secrets to play a critical role.

That does not mean that we should not continue to pursue every possible avenue to weaken the coup leaders. On the contrary, without that pressure from the people, Rafsanjani (and others like him) will not have the impetus to leverage their capabilities to drive drastic changes in the regime.

If the reformers are able to gain the basic freedoms that they are demanding, the remaining people will gradually learn about the regime's deceit and become agreeable to alternatives.

That's just how I view things.

[Bahman]

Kendall,

People in Iran do not have any weapons and more importantly Iranians killing Iranians will not create the unity of purpose that we need to create a long-term democracy.

Some history may be helpful here:

After a few short months of amazing press freedoms in Iran (with the obvious exception of media belonging to deposed Shah's supporters), the regime began to brutally suppress those political groups that attempted to block its initial wave of restrictions on their political activity.

The regime's security forces led by their plain clothes partners launched vicious daily attacks on that opposition. That opposition was led by a group of educated revolutionaries who had picked up arms against shah's dictatorship and had paid a heavy price for it. They are referred to as MKO or MEK or as they refer to themselves PMOI.

After living thru many attacks, and losing supporters to knife attacks, beatings, and arrests, the group decided that it had had enough and decided to leverage their former experience in armed resistance to take on the regime. Long story short, they were decimated, around 10,000 of their supporters were executed, and a small number of remaining supporters who had not been arrested or killed ended up escaping Iran to Iraq, etc.

My point is that talking about armed resistance is easy but a successful armed resistance requires a landscape that does not exist in Iran, namely the regime still does have some number of sincere, loyal supporters among ordinary Iranians and that's why armed resistance did not work and will not work unless the regime loses that support....which brings me back to my comment about the important role that I hope the clerics will play to change their hearts & minds.

[Barry]

@Bahman

I think that you are fairly accurate in your last 2 posts.

Except for one matter :) -

"The more probable catalyst to uniting all Iranians against the coup regime is a mass denunciation of the majority of the clerics against the coup gang."

In a time long ago,

"When told the Pope thought Stalin should stop repressing Catholics under his yoke, Stalin famously asked, "The Pope? How many divisions has he got?" " I am thinking that all the great Marjas are just great talkers - and have no Divisions.

I have come to the conclusion now that AN is the one running the show( with supporters) - SL is just a puppet. AN is quite anti-Clerical really- except for those who support him and particularly his mentor Yazdi.

I don't know where this is all going and have no idea what will happen next. I am reminded of the year 1933 in Germany. There had been much turmoil (for various reasons) but finally Hitler made it to the top of the pile. From then on, his apparatus eliminated any internal opposition. This of course finally led to war as he overstretched himself. AN seems to me to be really giving the "bird" to the west and Israel - deliberately and provocatively. I don't know why. I don't believe that Iran will ever have the military capacity that Nazi Germany put together - and I really don't know what level of spin surrounds this nuclear issue - from either side. One thing is FOR SURE for me is that the world cannot allow AN to get a bomb!!! That would be the same thing as standing by and watching Hitler build his forces - surely we would never let that happen again. ??? Although there are still probably as many pacifists, appeasers, idealists and peaceniks as there were between 1933 and 1941

Barry

[Bahman]

Barry,

I consider myself very liberal but I would also not allow Iran to get the bomb (not that I think they are anywhere close to doing that).

My reasoning is not all the hyperbole that we hear from AN, he is just playing to his base. What concerns me is that I tend to believe that he actually does believe that the return of the hidden Imam is imminent and that the Imam looks to him to prepare his army. When religious people (who believe that they KNOW what god wants) gain enough power to backup their fanatic ideas, all it takes is for one of them to have crazy dream or see a sign and there they go killing those who they perceive as enemies of god.

I don't necessarily like the idea but I still say that considering who the regime's loyal supports are, the clerics have the best chance of shifting their loyalty. And that's a much better solution for all of humanity than any war, regardless of who initiates it and who wins. There are 100,000 to 600,000 dead Iraqis who would vouch for that.

[Irão “nuclear” &la]

[...] tempo, a polícia e opositores ao regime entravam em confronto nas rua de Teerão. As autoridades bloquearam estradas e a polícia e as milícias Basij foram enviadas para deterem os manifestantes. A luta das [...]