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Entries by Scott Lucas (154)

Sunday
Feb282010

Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: Follow-Up

2100 GMT: The death toll has risen to 708 --- 541 in Maule Region, 64 in Bio Bio Region, 103 elsewhere. President Michelle Bachelet said, "We face a catastrophe of such unthinkable magnitude that it will require a giant effort" to recover.

Amidst the tragedy, a story of a miracle escape: a man and his 7-year-old daughter fell 13 floors in their apartment building but suffered only cuts and bruises.


1330 GMT: The latest from Concepcion, Chile's second-largest city and the population centre most affected by the earthquake: rescuers moving towards residents trapped in a collapsed apartment building, thousands homeless on the streets, and reports of looting.

1150 GMT: A Welcome Error. Geophysicist Gerard Fryer assesses, "We expected the waves to be bigger in Hawaii, maybe about 50 percent bigger than they actually were. We'll be looking at that."

1135 GMT: Reports of a strong aftershock in Santiago.

1015 GMT: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has cancelled the tsunami alert for all countries in the region.

0800 GMT: Highest waves hitting Japan are reported at 145 centimetres (just under 5 feet).

0735 GMT: Following up on Saturday's 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile and the threat of tsunami across the Pacific....

In Chile, President Bachelet estimates that two million people have been affected. More than 300 have been killed, and 15 are missing. The earthquake was 700 to 800 times stronger than that in Haiti in January, but it was off-shore and at a much greater depth (21.7 miles vs. 8.1 miles in Haiti). Buildings have collapsed, especially in Chile's second city Concepcion, the major north-south highway has been cut in several places, and Santiago airport has been badly damaged.

There have been 76 aftershocks in Chile and Argentina, killing two more people.

Today’s Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: LiveBlog


The feared "big" tsunami has not materialised in most sites in the Pacific. The tidal surge in Hawaii was much smaller than feared; in California, the rise was between 13 and 41 centimetres (5 and 17 inches). The highest wave so far in Japan has been 40 centimetres (16 inches).

Google has launched a Chile Person Finder and a site on Chile Earthquake Relief explains how assistance can be given.
Sunday
Feb282010

The Latest from Iran (28 February): What Do The Statements Mean?

2045 GMT: Sunday Absurdity. A slow day, which leading to a perusing of opinion in the newspapers. Unfortunately, that turns up a piece of anti-Muslim diatribe posing as analysis by Ephraim Karsh in The New York Times: "Muslims Won't Play Together". The slurs have to be read to be believed, but here is the policy recommendation: "A military strike must remain a serious option: there is no peaceful way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, stemming as they do from its imperialist brand of national-Islamism."

NEW Iran: Understanding the Assembly of Experts Statement “Crisis Continues”
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi’s Interview “Reform Within the Current Framework” (27 February)
Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting….
The Latest from Iran (27 February): The Mousavi Interview


1700 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has been at a conference in Tehran attended by Palestinian leaders such as Hamas' Khaled Meshaal, Islamic Jihad's Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, and the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command), Ahmed Jibril. Ahmadinejad offered this commentary:


With God's grace and thanks to the Palestinian resistance the occupying Zionist regime has lost its raison d'être. [Israel's] presence even in one inch of the region's soil causes threat, crisis and war. The only way to confront them (Israelis) is through the Palestinian youths' resistance, and that of the regional nations.

1435 GMT: US-Israel Front (cont.). Haaretz has more on Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Iran manoeuvres after his US trip (see 0955 GMT). Barak had indicated earlier that Israel would not pursue military action but would look for tougher sanction; however, in a talk in Washington, he returned to the formula that "everything is on the table":
It's clear to me that the clock toward the collapse of this regime works much slower than the clock which ticks toward Iran becoming a nuclear military power. And this is the reason why simultaneously with diplomacy and effective sanctions, we recommend to all players not to remove any option from the table and we adopt this attitude for ourselves as well.

1400 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Journalist Ali Hekmat, editor-in-chief of the banned newsaper Khordaadhas been released after two months in detention. Civil rights activist Jamshid Zarei has also been freed.

1325 GMT: That Larijani Fellow. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing to grab headlines after his trip to Japan, has spoken to the Majlis about the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, "Fortunately, his confessions confirmed our previous information on the close cooperation between the US and NATO and the terrorist grouplet."

1300 GMT: No Protests. A day after Mir Hossein Mousavi called for the regime to allow rallies, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has given a sharp rejection:
Even though some go on trying to agitate the atmosphere in society with statements... they've been given the answer by the people. We will not witness street demonstrations and we will not allow anyone to come to the streets to disrupt public security without proper permits....

Even though threats against the revolution will not come to an end, we will not succumb and certainly one day in the not so distant future despair will take them and they will surrender. The file on the election has been closed and law enforcement agencies have been asked to preserve security.

Having wielded a large stick, Doulatabadi offered a small carrot with the promise that some post-election detainees would be released before the Iranian New Year.

1220 GMT: O" the Economic Front. Kalemeh denounces President Ahmadinejad's slogan of bringing oil income to people's tables, comparing it with "vanished billions" in revenues.

Rah-e-Sabz reports on a protest at an Isfahan steel plant over seven months of unpaid wages.

1215 GMT: Bluster of Day. Deputy Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami warns, "Iran is standing on 50% of world's energy resources. If it decides to do so, Europe will spend the winter in the cold."

1205 GMT: Maintaining His Silence. The Supreme Leader used a meeting with Tehran's ambassador to take a nationally-televised swipe at the International Atomic Energy Agency, "Measures and reports of the agency show its lack of independence.... Unilateral acts erode trust in this institution and the United Nations and it is very bad for the reputation of these international assemblies."

No news there, as it is a restatement of Iran's public line on the IAEA, a day before the Agency's four-day discussion of a draft report on Tehran's nuclear programme. What is more intriguing is the Supreme Leader's lack of reference to Ali Larijani's manoeuvres in Japan for "third-party enrichment" (see 0935 GMT).

1155 GMT: MediaWatch. Leading US newspapers have noted and evaluated the Mousavi interview. Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times leads with Mousavi's accusation of the regime's "wasteful exercise" of 22 Bahman (11 February) but then puts his key point, "Mousavi offered few specifics on what the so-called green movement should do next."

In The Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink  takes a similar line with Mousavi's denuncation of the Government as a "gang with no respect for Iran's interests" and the note that "he did not, however, propose new strategies". Nazila Fathi has a shorter piece in The New York Times, following the Associated Press, with the criticism of the Iranian leadership as a dictatorial "cult" but with no comment on Mousavi's goals.

0955 GMT: On the US-Israel Front. Laura Rozen has an intriguing reading of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's appearance at the Washington Institute of Near Policy, after his meetings with senior Obama Administration officials:
It became quite clear that [Barak] did not want to answer [a] question about the state of U.S.-Israel relations on Iran....It was his impression that Washington believes that, while it’s highly undesirable, at the end of the day the U.S. could live with a nuclear Iran; [however] for Israel, Barak said, it would be a “tipping point” in the strategic equation in the region.

0945 GMT: Today's Propaganda Special. Iranian state media pronounces, "Rigi planned to meet Holbrooke in Kyrgyzstan", which paints the picture of the Jundullah leader sitting down with President Obama's special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke.

The source? "Famous Washington, D.C. based investigative journalist and reporter Wayne Madsen". Funny, but I don't actually see that on the website of "famous reporter" Madsen.

Safer, I think, for Iran's loudspeakers to rely on "Iranian forces bust terrorist cell in Azarbaijan".

Meanwhile, Jundullah has chosen a new leader to succeed Rigi.

0940 GMT: Speaking of Larijani. Ali Larijani has avoided the nuclear issue on his return to Iran from Japan, issuing instead an un-controversial condemnation of US policy in Afghanistan and an announcement that Japanese officials are willing to cooperate with Iran on the reconstruction of the Afghan infrastructure.

0935 GMT: The Larijani Debate. Elsewhere, there is a spirited discussion going on, as Ali Larijani returns to Iran from a five-day trip, over the significance of his manoeuvres in Japan, especially on the nuclear programme.

I stand by the reading that Larijani's sudden embrace of "3rd-party enrichment" (no doubt backed by the Supreme Leader) is a political move meant not only to keep open links with the international community but to out-manoeuvre and even push aside President Ahmadinejad. Mr Verde is more cautious:
I think Larijani’s talk of enrichment by Japan is an attempt by the Islamic Republic to break or slow down the anti-Iran posturing. Larijani may be chipping away at Ahmadinejad, but it is all with Supreme Leader's permission.

The post-elections protest shocked the regime and Khamenei. And the Larijani/[Ahmad] Tavakoli spat with Ahmadinejad is possibly an attempt to show that the Republic is not just one voice (that of the Supreme Leader) but it actually tolerates dissent.

A well-placed EA contact, however, is dismissive that there is any significance, writing of "incremental
developments that oftentimes go nowhere".

0930 GMT: We have published a Sunday special: there is a summary of the official statement of the Assembly of Experts, and a detailed analysis by Mr Verde: "The institutions of the Islamic Republic are unable to pull it out of the current crisis. All that have any power (at least on paper) are under the direct, and at times illegal, control of Khamenei."

0745 GMT: It will be a slightly later start this morning, as we wrap up our coverage of the Chile earthquake and tsunami watch and also pick up on the important statements out of Iran.

We have posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Saturday interview with Kalemeh. Initial reading is both of a Mousavi trying to maintain the momentum of opposition but also carefully defining how far the challenge goes --- is it enough to call for the "spread of awareness", "free rallies", and "adherence to the Constitution" if the regime stands firm against even those measured demands? We'll think about that today, looking forward to an analysis on Monday.

Later today, however, we may have an equally important reading. The official statement of the Assembly of Experts, which did not appear for several days after last week's meeting, is now posted. Beyond its loyalty to the Supreme Leader, the references to the opposition are not clear. Was this really the declaration that "sedition" would be put down and opposition would longer be acceptable in the Iranian system?
Sunday
Feb282010

Iran: Understanding the Assembly of Experts Statement "Crisis Continues"

First, a summary of the official statement of the Assembly of Experts after their two-day meeting. The statement only emerged yesterday, 72 hours after the conclusion of the meeting and after a "leaked" document (possibly a draft of the statement pushed by "hard-liners") appeared on Fars News:

1. Opening point on God and the Iranian nation standing against Iran's enemies.
2. Post-election: there has been much damage. The people passed the test, but a few of the elite did not in these difficult times. [No direct condemnation of the opposition, the door is still open to atonement]. Our triumph is due to our great Supreme Leader, which adds another golden page to the history book of the Islamic Republic. Abiding with the Supreme Leader is necessary for keeping our holy Republic united.
3. Fitna [sedition] has been finished, and the patient people have wiped out wrong-doers [or those on the wrong path].
4. Warning to all enemies who seduced their own people: our duty has not ended, we stand openly by the side of your Supreme Leader.
5. A thousand thanks to our devoted and self-sacrificing security forces for extinguishing the fire. God bless them and congratulations to them for catching the leader of Jundullah's "terrorists", Abdolmalek Rigi.
6. Iranian academics have achieved brilliant victories in all fields of science.
7. A reminder of Khomeini, hoping to bring the Revolution to its real owner, the Imame Zaman.




Mr Verde analyses the meaning and significance of the statement:

Not much of a surprise to be honest.

The basics: the Assembly statement is to show the people that their eight months of protest have not made any difference (they have, but this is what the regime wants people to believe).


It is also to show high-ranking religious figures who have been unhappy with the Supreme Leader’s management of the country since June that the Assembly of Experts is not only approving Khamenei as the best person to be leader but is also approving his methods and actions, to the point that it is saying that it has had enough of the protests (this is exactly how the Supreme Leader must feel about the protest: he must be fed up with it all).

The original idea of the Assembly was to include very high-ranking clerics, with impeccable personal and religious credentials, who were supposed to represent the different views of religious scholars and Grand Ayatollahs. They were supposed to be elected by the people, bringing together the Islamic nature and republicanism of the Republic.

What we have instead is a group of people, most of whom were not known at all until they were “elected” to the Assembly. And even now, most are only known for their membership of the Assembly or their political activity, not their religious credentials (for example, Ahmad Khatami).

The candidates of the Assembly have to go through a very strong filtering process by Council of Guardians and in many seats, there are usually only one candidate for people to vote for or two candidates, both of whom have the same views. So there is no choice in most Assembly constituencies. In fact the process is so flawed that members of the Council of Guardians are also members of the Assembly (e.g. Ahmad Jannati, Ahmad Khatami), a serious and obvious case of conflict of interest.

There is also a fundamental flaw with the implementation of the idea of the Assembly. The Assembly is supposed to select the Supreme Leader, oversee his actions, and, if required, remove him from the post.

But the members of the Assembly have to go through the Council of Guardians filter. The Council has 12 members (six clerics, six lawyers). The six clerics are appointed directly by the Supreme Leader. The six lawyers are nominated by the head of Judiciary and voted on by the Parliament. The head of Judiciary is appointed by the Supreme Leader and the members of Parliament have to pass through the Council filter to stand for election.

This creates a closed loop assuring the full control of the Supreme Leader and making oversight of him impossible. Only his people get to become members of the Assembly; with the exception of very few people like Ayatollah Dashgheib. (I’ll talk about Rafsanjani below.)

Through its history, the Assembly of Experts has never been what it is supposed to be. Instead of being the supreme body that oversees the top person in the regime, it rubber-stamps decisions that have already been taken elsewhere.

One example was the assignment and later removal of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as deputy Supreme Leader in the 1980 (both of these were Khomeini’s decisions, not the Assembly’s). The same was true when Khamenei was selected as Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani got together with the right-wing factions (Motalefeh and conservative clerics) of the Islamic Republic and started a plan that resulted in the left (the current Reformists) being gradually pushed away from power. The outcome was Khamenei becoming Supreme Leader on the say-so of Rafsanjani and a few others who were supposedly recounting Khomeini’s wishes on his death bed. Ever since, the Assembly has rubber-stamped whatever Khamenei wants. All the Assembly sessions result is a communique that says that all is well and the Supreme Leader is doing the best job possible.

I view this latest statement exactly the same way. A few days before the latest session started, Kayhan published a report which predicted the final declaration. Remember that Kayhan’s editor is appointed by Khamenei, and the newspaper usually says what Khamenei wants to say. It is the journalistic version form of plainclothesmen (lebas shakhsi) for Khamenei: an unofficial spokesperson that will allow the Supreme Leader to deny everything.

Why the statement was put on the website so late? It could be that they just forgot to post it. Or it could be that someone was trying to indicate some dissatisfaction with the statement, holding back its publication.

I don’t think it matters. The institutions of the Islamic Republic are unable to pull it out of the current crisis. All that have any power (at least on paper) are under the direct, and at times illegal, control of Khamenei.

The root cause of the current crisis is Khamenei and his actions and decisions. And he will not change his mind until there is a lot of pressure on him, not from within the institutions of the regime, but from some area where he does not have full control.

I honestly believe that Khamenei and his advisors are not able to see what they are doing to the regime and to themselves. Maybe 20 years of absolute power does this; they are trying to control a country of 70 million people like a village in the outback with a big stick, lots of superstition, and big lies. The problem they have, and which will get worse, is that many young people in Iran are quite well-educated and well-informed and will not stand for this. Children of the establishment’s figures are part of this group, for example, Mohsen Ruholamini. [Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison, was the son of Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei.]

I think that, in recent weeks, we have seen a concerted effort on the part of the Supreme Leader and Co. to "wrap things up". Although the 9 Dey [30 December] and 22 Bahman [11 February] pro-regime marches were nowhere as good as they wished and actually caused them, I think they know that this is the best they can do as far as marches are concerned, both by not allowing the opposition a chance to show itself as on Qods Day, 13 Aban [4 November], 16 Azar [7 December], or Ashura [27 December] and by showing at least some form of support for the regime.

Having put a lot of effort in the 22 Bahman show, the regime is trying to get as much out of it as it possibly can. The Assembly statement and Khamenei speech to the Assembly members wer part of this plan: show strength and show resolve. The hope is that it will dishearten the public. If it does, it will improve the public standing of the Supreme Leader and the regime in the short-term. If it does not, it will raise the stakes even higher.

(A side note on Hashemi Rafsanjani....

I think that Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader both need each other, but each want the other to be weak. I don’t think that Rafsanjani, even if he could, is out to get rid of Khamenei. He wants the Supreme Leader in his post, but in a weaker position. He is trying to use the protests and Ahmadinejad’s mismanagement of the country to say to Khamenei: the people don’t agree with you, and your guy is useless too.

The Supreme Leader on the other hand is worried that getting rid of Rafsanjani would make him lose the support of powerful people within the Islamic Republic.)

It has been said many times on EA that this is a marathon, not a sprint. If I may just modify that: this is a marathon, but the regime would like to change it into (or at least pretend that it is) a sprint. The longer this process takes, the more the regime will lose (and the weaker it will become). So the regime will have to play its hand quickly: a lot of high-value cards are being played for cheap rewards.
Sunday
Feb282010

Iran Document: Mousavi's Interview "Reform Within the Current Framework" (27 February)

Mir Hossein's interview with Kalemeh, translated by Khordaad 88:

Three weeks has passed since the 22nd of Bahman rally and there have been lots of discussions and comments regarding this rally, what is opinion your about this event?

It is not the first time that the ceremonies of 22nd of Bahman have been held in our country. These ceremonies are in remembrance of rallies in 1979 [and have taken place] in different occasions with more than a million people.  Every year people who admire this revolution participate in these ceremonies where traditional institutions such as Mosques or religious assemblies play an important role in organizing the rally. Usually the ceremonies in each year are influenced by important events of the year and the political atmosphere [in the country]. The 10th presidential election and the events that followed it influenced this year’s rally. The government mobilized [large number of people] public employees, using trains and buses from all across the country by spending large sums of money. This was all to neutralize the impact of presence of green movement.


How was this year’s rally different from previous years?

The differences were due to the events that occurred after the election. Considering the formation of the green movement this year, the rally was significantly affected by how the movement would [choose to] participate in it.  In no other years so many police, military and security forces were deployed in the streets. The violent and savage confrontation particularly vivid in Sadeghiyeh Sq and other locations was unprecedented. In previous years people participated in the rally with any form or dress and shouted any slogan they desired. But this year violent security forces could not bear to see a green shirt worn by a young person or green beads  carried by a clergy. I doubt people would easily forget these confrontations.

In your opinion what was the number of green movement supporters that attended the rallies?

It is hard to come up with an accurate number. But [we] can make estimates based on some observations. One is comparing the weight of the crowd who participated in 25th of Khordaad rally with 22nd of Bahman rally. Another observation is the empty spaces in the Azadi square during the speech and comparing it with previous years that the rallies where more crowded. No explanation has been offered as why the Azadi square was not filed and why the cameras only covered certain areas close to the podium. To hear that people worried about the grass and environment is comical especially for people who had seen attendance of people in the square in previous years. If the system cared to estimate the population weight of green movement, they would not stop them from showing their identities. But [their] fear that this identity is revealed took away a historical opportunity. This is more harmful to the system than the green movement. It is obvious that concealing reality does not eliminate it. And on this specific issue I have no doubt that this widespread confrontation will only spread this identity. In a discussion I had with Mr. Karroubi, we decided to repeat our request for permission to hold a rally according to the Article 27 of the Constitution. The level of participation in [such a rally] will put an end to all rumors. We believe that if the green movement as well as other reformist parties, Great Marjaas and other figures had not invited people, this year [we] would have seen a low participation such that the course of the rally would have been in the same shape as Azadi Square during the speech.

It has been said that bribes and threats played a role in organizing the rallies, and that some have attended these rallies for mundane reasons.

I prefer the term "engineered" rallies. I am against slandering those who disagree with the messages of the Green Movement. Our arrangement was not, and will never be, to view as immoral the actions of those with different opinions. We are all fellow countrymen.  Aside from a few murderers and mobsters, we are all brothers and sisters.  Even the security forces and the military are our brothers, and we know that they are forced to yield to violence.

Of course, I condemn the expense of hefty sums along with the abuse of government facilities and inducing government employees with their job security to organize gatherings. I remember that during wartime, it was a big problem for defense organizations to rent trucks for the transportation of troops until Imam [Khomeini] issued permission to use personal trucks and vehicles with the assurance that the government would pay for all damages. But for the latest rally, [an enormous number] of buses and even trains were used by the military and by security to transport people. Such engineering of the gatherings is not only nothing to be proud of, it also resembles the despotic mentalities of the pre-Revolution governments. During the Shah’s time as well, if a government employee failed to attend a pro-regime rally, he or she would have problems at work. After the 1978 revolution, our system has taken pride in the people taking to the streets themselves. As such, we can only truly take pride in the rallies of 15 June [only three days after the controversial election of 12 June 2009] and those that followed, not in artificially-engineered rallies that may have been instigated by economic obligation, by expenditure, or by a terrifying environment.

Do you and Messrs Karroubi and Khatami consult on the decisions and positions taken?

I am always in touch with these honorable men. With extensive detainments, I feel even stronger about the necessity of direct communication and, thank God, there is good coordination on this front. Although it is for the benefit of the country that, instead of filling prisons, [officials] support the creation of a powerful organizational body that disagrees with the current destructive policies in place but is still within the framework of the system. I think the only way to stop the leaders of social and political activities from leaving the country is through the [support of such a body].

However, as State TV deviates more and more [from the path that leads towards desirable solutions] and persists in one-sided views, closures of newspapers, and detainment of journalists, it seems that establishing a body to gather the actual figures and align things with the Constitution is not going to happen. I still believe [in] the importance of the motto “every citizen is a medium”, along with increased usage of social networks to raise awareness. I believe that there is no alternative for such social networks.

I should add that these difficult conditions have had some benefits as well, alongside all the damage. Among them is the development of self-reliance and the expansion of the Green Movement to countless other social networks.  In this regard, the use of virtual space was miraculous. [The Web] has established itself as a stable and trustworthy structure that, in connecting people and networks, brings them together to collaborate. It is very similar to traditional bazaars where countless stores and booths of varying size are connected, along with mosques and tea houses, to produce an image of one coherent structure, despite the differences in every unit. What is interesting is that on one side of the bazaar you can have very different appetites, opinions, and capital flowing from the other sides, but this variety never constrains its totality or its concept of unity. Instead, [this variety] acts as a point of strength.

The movements in the street have been met with extreme violence. We saw an instance of this during the 22 Bahman rally in Sadeghiyeh Circle [where marchers tried to gather; Mehdi Karroubi's entourage was attacked en route].  Are there other paths we can follow to achieve the very legitimate goals of the Green Movement?

This question is being asked a lot. Our response is that the Green Movement should not forget its goals, just as it should not become a mundane and passive task that needs no strategy. The Green Movement’s goal from the very beginning has been to reform the administration within the current Constitutional framework. The color Green has connected us all. The minimum demand that could surely bring a majority together was a call for the unequivocal execution of the Constitution.

Of course, there were those who wanted to move beyond this demand, but the Green Movement has never deviated from this common goal and, God willing, will never do so in the future. I have repeatedly spoken about the importance of sticking to this demand and, as a member of the Green Movement, have stressed its conservation. We must consider the showings in the streets to be a method with which the Green Movement has attempted to present its goals and intentions to the whole nation and the international community. But, this has not been the only method. Tens of millions of Iranians have objections to the government’s actions to censor, constriction of freedom, oppression, foreign policies that are whimsical and adventurous, destructive economic policies, and spreading of lies and corruption. [The people] demand changes that will allow them to decide their own destiny. They want to change the destiny forced upon them by incompetent officials.

Our nation wants to avoid falling behind in tough regional and international competition. Our nation wants to interact with the international community, not fight it or be hostile towards it, and follow foreign policies that promote growth. Out nation does not want to bury its own agricultural and industrial production under a sea of imported goods, [which has grown] under the careless and irresponsible watch of the Government. Our nation does not want to put the Revolutionary Guards and other semi-governmental organizations in charge of the majority of the country’s projects and economic activities under the privatisation banner. Our nation wants to deal with unemployment and poverty as a religious, Islamic, and national duty.

The deceptive mass advertising effort by the government should not hide the true poverty, unemployment, and inflation affecting the nation. Our nation does not want its teachers and workers to be attacked when asking for their wage, or its women to be attacked while trying to abolish discrimination. Our nation wants the government to allow all voices in society to be heard through the public media. It does not want the media to be monopolized by unjust people who publish libel. The majority of people here like one another. They do not want to be divided into the Party of God and the Party of Devil, nor into humans on one side and dirt and animals on the other.

Our nation does not want its mail, email, SMS, and calls to be under surveillance. Our nation is well-informed and courageous and does not appreciate the effort of a select few to constrict its freedoms and limit its constitutional rights while hypocritically claiming that all of these intrusions  are [actually] desired by the nation. With whatever means possible, the Green Movement must inform the whole nation and members of all sects and groups, that the demands of the nation are the demands of the Green Movement. The Green Movement must publicize these demands.

These demands are completely Islamic, Constitutional, and consistent with religious democracy. They are not anti-religious and, as such, execution, murder or imprisonment cannot be justified [as a means of dealing with them]. Nor are the demands anti-establishment or against the nation. Since they are [legitimate], the people support them. The demand for freedom, human rights, the abolishment of discrimination and tolerance of different opinions shown on street and in the media is not a crime. On the contrary, denying the expression of these demands is a sign of tyranny and a distortion of the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, which succeeded under the slogan of “Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic”.

In response to your question, I have to say that the basis for any fundamental change in the direction of reform is to spread awareness. Spreading the seed of awareness within all levels of society is not going to happen with demonstrations alone. However, social gathering is a civil right as well as one of the people’s methods to reach their political, social and cultural ideals. The important point here is that any supporter of the Green Movement [should find] a way to spread awareness, especially among the poor [oppressed]. This should be done on the basis of the saying: “Each Citizen, a Medium”.

However, we must be humble. The goal is not to necessarily see the Green supporters in charge in the end. There is no “I” in Green and, hence, no place for self-interest.  In this way, we will use the streets [to spread awareness] peacefully and lawfully as well as other legal means. As a companion of the Green Movement, I would like to emphasize again that the most effective way to reach victory is to spread national awareness. We want to attain our ideals with the people and by means of the people.

How do you see the role of the establishment, the system and other parties with regards to these changes?

The Green Movement has stood firm in its civil demands. The more people’s awareness of their rights increases, the bigger will be the force behind those demands. This recognition will change people’s lives and that change is the nation’s capital for greater political and social transformation. As a humble member of the Green Movement, I would like to point out to its supporters that our goal is change within our establishment. However, this change does not have to be achieved by anyone specific. We have to remember this ethical principle: to attest righteousness, decency and beauty whether or not it is achieved by us. As a result, although we will stand firm for our demands, it is less costly if the establishment follows the solutions offered by the people and the National Covenant [the Constitution].

I would like to state clearly that any actions by the Government to adjudicate the rights of people and to fully uphold the Constitution will not be seen as a sign of weakness by us. We will not portray these actions as insignificant. On the contrary, they will be a symbol of the power of the Islamic Republic. We would like to see all segments of the establishment pledge free, competitive, and non-selective elections.

We would like to see the Establishment free political prisoners and work on political development as well as the development of the culture of freedom. We would like to see the Establishment encourage diversity within media and protect its freedom. I would like to state clearly that even if the publishing of Kalemeh Sabz [Mousavi’s newspaper] and Etemade Melli [the newspaper of the Etemad Melli Party, whose chairman is Mehdi Karroubi] is harmful, [these newspapers] are less damaging than non-national and foreign media. I know that they [the Establishment] will not accept this; or at least they will not accept this in the current situation.

However I say that having one or more radio and TV channels for the Green movement, will only strengthen the system and help national unity. I personally am worried that these current limitations will force us to fall behind lower-ranking countries in the region. I don’t see another way to protect our nation against the waves that other countries will send towards us, countries which are thinking of their own self-interest. It is absurd to think that we can control these waves by hacking, filtering and jamming satellite signals.

Either way, if the ruling establishment and the different political factions are realistic, they must know that the Green movement was present for 22 Bahman. And, [they must know that] a good future for the country can only be secured by creating unity between people and varying factions of society, and not by calling a significant portion of society “dirt and dust”, “cows and lambs”, and “an insignificant, limited group”.

The life of our prophets and imams show that at no time did they curse or abuse those who opposed their religion. They had a high regard for human dignity, and instead of judging individuals, they always showed great mercy and kindness, in order to show the path of truth. Our people cannot tolerate anti-religious actions being carried out in the name of religion. In the Koran, when the prophet and his followers are mentioned, they are described as being kind and strong in the face of enemies. For certain, both in the time of the prophet and after, not all Muslims had the same degree of faith. Our people greatly understand the different between piety and the seeking of power in the guise of pious clothing. T

his [current] ruling establishment is a clique which strives to rob the very meaning of being Iranian and national solidarity. And this is one of gravest dangers we face today. Our weapon against such devious actions is uniting around our common national and religious aspirations, and relying on those visions which will result in a developed, peace-seeking Iran, throughout the country and throughout the world. It is in such a circumstance that we can hope that just like the years of the holy war [Iran-Iraq war] the entire nation will unite in the face of danger. The nation is defined as all the groups, all ethnicities, all cultures and all differing factions. Those interested in the Green movement take pride in being Iranian, and all the symbols that come with that, and thus, it is quite obvious that we are very suspicious about the changing of the color of our flag, and we see this [this changing of the color] as a clear sign of the lack of concern of this current ruling establishment for our national interests, values, and culture.

In your 17th statement, you gave a number of solutions for solving this current crisis. Do you have any other suggestions besides the ones you’ve given already?

A very important aspect of the 17th statement is that the very acceptance of the existence of a crisis is a part of its solution. At the same time, I do not believe there are any sudden, abrupt solutions out of this current crisis. For example, we cannot engineer an orchestrated demonstration and fool ourselves into believing that everything is over. The important thing is that we now take steps to ensure that the crisis will be solved in the future. Just imagine if today, it was announced that all political prisoners will be freed. Beyond any faction or group, I’m certain that the entire nation will be glad to hear this news. Or, another action that can work to better this environment of fear is kindness towards the people who are simply demanding their rights.

We have seen the effect of calling people dirt and dust [as Ahmadinejad referred in his speech two days after the election]. Let’s speak with the people respectfully for once. In some situations, simply refraining from some inappropriate actions can help improve the national atmosphere. An example is the brutal treatment of people in Sadeghieh Square on 22 Bahman and the attacks on people and some families of martyrs and their children. Who can claim that such shameful actions could help the establishment?

What is more beneficial in solving the current crisis: Mousavi and Khatami joining the ranks of people [in the rally] and showing their unity [with them] in practice or the violent forces pursuing the strategy of “victory by terror” using sticks, knives and chains? Can the Government find a solution by terrorizing people? If using such methods for victory was an achievement, then neither we nor anyone else in the world would be able to condemn Saddam’s attack on Halabja [the Kurdish village in Iraq in 1988]. We wouldn’t have said that he has no mercy, even though it was his own people that he decimated. The footage recently released of the attack on the [Tehran] University dormitories show how partisan attitudes can lead to merciless brutality.

To those who are beating up the students, the children of this nation are even less than animals. Even more devastating is the fact that the officials from all levels of the power hierarchy claim that they do not know who is responsible for these attacks. This is an even worse insult to the intelligence of the students and people. What is interesting about this footage is that even among the security forces, there are some who ask others not to beat the students.

I just wish that the country’s police and security forces saw strength in providing a secure environment for all Iranians, irrespective of their beliefs, and not in suppression and violence. Why was it necessary to pollute Sadeqiyeh Square with pepper gas and other chemical pollutants?

All these actions will stray us farther away from rational solutions out of this crisis. If this crisis is not resolved, the legitimately of the ruling establishment will plummet even faster. The green movement, under any circumstances, must emphasize free and fair elections, elections which are not preceded by a purging process. Just like the freedom of the press, freedom of all political prisoners and putting an end to this fearful security environment are all very important, and we must not only let the ruling establishment, but all the people of our country hear of these solutions.

There are lots of discussions about the relationship between the Green movement and elite social groups [professors, students, artists, etc.]. What is your opinion?

The green movement is a movement that was born out of a number of very important differing groups within society and it is through the interaction it has had with these groups that it has been able to grow. In this regard, for example, I can refer to the letter written by 116 professors at Tarbiat Modarres University. This university is a child of the Revolution, and I, as one of those who served the country in the early days of the revolution, had a role in its formation.

Everyone knows that this university does not have an undergraduate level and the average age of the student is higher than other universities. Many staff and students of that university were very active in the first years of the Revolution. The statement of 116 professors of this university along with the similar statements from other academicians and Islamic Associations of other universities show that how much the Movement is alive and serious across the universities.

I would like to say that you can see the same trend in physicians, teachers, engineers, laborers, women activists, athletes, and artists and other major sectors. A clear and unbiased look at the Fajr Festivals demonstrates where the artists stand as an effective sector of the society. It is said that about a thousand music clips and videos were made about the Green Movement after the election. Many cartoons, posters, and paintings as well as other art works were created in that period. This movement is unique in our cultural history and possibly in world cultures. I believe the powerful connection of the Green Movement with these major sects is the best reason to be hopeful for reaching the ideals of the Movement in the future of our country. Why shouldn’t we be hopeful when millions of students in our country is behind the Green Movement?

How about clerics?

There is a significant number of faithful, aware, and resistant clerics present within the Green movement. Greens must know that stands of a few spiteful and radical clerics are not the opinion of the whole society of the jurists and the clergy. Our noble clergy never call people with slanderous words. They would never support murders, bloodshed, and jailing the innocent. Our noble clergy knows well what Islam says about slanders, tortures, desecrating dignities of others and invading their privacies. Our real clergy can identify [grand] expediencies concerning our national and Islamic resources from [short-sighted] partisan benefits. Our clergy accompanies the universities and is in unity with students and faculty. They understand the importance of this union. We view the clerics in the Green movement as a very important supply of potentials and support [for the movement]. Their presence in the Green movement is connected to the survival of the movement concerning the various methods and means to accuse the Green movement of secular ties and connections to foreign governments.

For this reason, I must tell everyone who has joined the Green movement with hopes of a better Iran in the future that we must be careful not to fall for the propaganda that wants the clergy to lose their trust in the Green movement. Let’s not forget the "Carnivals of month Ahsoura" during 1998 and other similar plots. Opponents of the Green Movement --- not all, but some of them --- do not have any sense of decency and morality.

What is your suggestion regarding the ceremonies of the last Wednesday of the [Iranian New] Year [in mid-March?

The ceremonies of this day commemorate the victory of light over darkness, but the supporters of the Green Path Movement, even though they have extreme respect for religious and national symbols and ceremonies, do not want these ceremonies to be a venue for harassing people. We should especially keep in mind that the movement’s opponents may have plans for trying to defame the Green Movement, as they have tried before. I am sure that the Greens will not take part in any unconventional activities or vandalism. Causing explosions or fires is not in line with the Green Movement’s attitudes, which has been focused on non-violent activities.

Being green is not only determined by your clothes or symbols. Being green is a matter of behavior and morals. If we remember this important principle and the members of the green movement remind each other of it, we can definitely prevent the damage that may be caused by the actions of a few dressed in green.

And the last word?

I wish that someday the situation in our country will be such that all of the posters, paintings, video clips, and other works of art that have been created in the last year could be exhibited without censorship. I know that, hopefully [if God is willing], with hope and the steady progress of the green movement, we shall witness such an exhibition some day, one which expresses our emotions, aspirations, and concern as a nation.
Saturday
Feb272010

Today's Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: LiveBlog

Given the damage and deaths from today's earthquake off the coast of Chile and the declaration of a Tsunami Warning, EA is "mirroring" the LiveBlog of Josh Shahryar:

There is a live stream from Chile (in Spanish) on latest developments. The country is three hours behind Greenwich Mean Time:

Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: Follow-Up (28 February)


2255 GMT

Continued activity but no drama --- CNN is loudly filling time. We're handing over to the Hawaii live stream. Readers are invited to send in any information.


2240 GMT

Hawaii awaits the third wave of the tsunami. Live footage shows a reef in Hilo Bay disappearing as water rises.

2218 GMT

As Honolulu television shows live shots of Hilo Bay, a gentleman can be seen clearly walking along the beach. Anchor: "That's probably one of the most idiotic things I've seen." A reporter adds that three or four surfers are "having a heckuva session".

2210 GMT:

The death toll is now 214, according to the Chilean Interior Ministry.

The 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile was the fifth-strongest in history. In towns close to the epicenter, including Curico and Talca, more than 80 percent of buildings collapsed.

There have now been 63 major aftershocks.

2205 GMT:

Report of 5-foot tidal wave at Chatham Islands, 430 miles southeast of New Zealand.

2200 GMT:

Oscillations are from a metre above normal level to a metre below, in intervals of about 20 minutes.

2150 GMT

There are indications that the first waves of a tsunami may be arriving at Hawaii, but image still indicate shifting tidal patterns so far rather than a large build-up of water.

2135 GMT

Reports of water receding near Hilo. Reef now exposed at Hilo Bay. Coconut Beach completely under water.

2110 GMT

Reports of tidal shifts off Oahu but no sign of tsunami yet at Hilo on Hawaii's largest island.

1850 GMT

Canada is ready to offer help to Chile. CTV reports:
The prime minister says Canada is ready to help in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Chile. In a statement, Stephen Harper says Canadian officials in Santiago and Ottawa are assessing the damage, and trying to determine whether any Canadians are affected.

1847 GMT

As the tsunami warning in Hawaii reaches the citizens, more people are stockpiling food, fuel and other supplies in case the tsunami causes major damage. The Weather Channel feed is providing a steady stream of photographs.

1835 GMT

The director of the National Emergencies Office of Chile has announced that the number of dead stands at 147.

1814 GMT

Report that at least 209 prisoners have escaped from the main prison in Chillan. Chillan is located in the Biobío region, which has been the most seriously affected region.

1808 GMT

Boston.com has pictures of the damage caused by the earthquake.

1805 GMT

All college campuses in Hawaii have been closed. Surfers have been cautioned to stay off the beaches. Waikiki corridor will shut down in 3 hours.

1802 GMT

US President Barack Obama is expected to make a statement about the Chile earthquake in about an hour.

1800 GMT

The US government has confirmed that so far no Americans have been reported missing or dead.

1755 GMT

Fatalities have now been reported from the Juan Fernandez Islands. At least 3 people have been killed and 10 are missing after a large wave inundated large portions of the island’s coast.

At least 3 people are missing on Robinson Crusoe Island.

1733 GMT

The waves that hit French Polynesia were as high as 6 feet (2 metres), but no damage assessment is available yet.

A new wiki to help in search, rescue, and gathering of information has been created and uploaded.

1730 GMT

The White House has issued the number for US citizens seeking information about loved ones in Chile. You can call the State Department’s Consular Affairs Bureau on 1-888-407-4747.

1725 GMT

At least five people have been confirmed to have died in Viña del Mar in Valparaíso Province, north of Santiago. The Dutch Foreign Ministry says it is still trying to account for 27 Dutch nationals.

1710 GMT

The reported times of arrival of the tsunami in the Hawaiian Islands:

Hilo: 11:05 a.m. (2105 GMT)

Maui: 11:35 a.m. (2135 GMT)

Oahu: 11:50 a.m. (2150 GMT)

Wave surges are expected to be 9-12 feet. Hilo airport has been closed.

1705 GMT

The death toll currently remains at 122 with perhaps hundreds more injured. Reuters reports that it would take almost three days to assess the situation fully, but the death toll is likely to not rise dramatically.

1700 GMT

Reports on Twitter from the Juan Fernandez Islands are grim. According to a pilot who flew over the islands, the tsunami waves have caused wide-spread destruction in a zone of three kilometres (a little less than 1.4 miles).

1648 GMT

Reports indicate that Chile's Juan Fernandez Islands may have been severely hit by the tsunami. The islands are 415 miles west of the Chilean mainland and have a population of around 500 people.

1641 GMT

The tsunami is expected to hit the Philippines on February 28:

Davao [6.8N 125.7E] at around  1:25 PM

Palanan [17.1N 122.6E] at about 1:59 PM

Legaspi [13.2N 123.8E] at about  2:04 PM

1633 GMT

An earthquake registering 6.3 has hit close to the city of Salta in northern Argentina, on the border with Chile.

1630 GMT

Dozens of pictures have been uploaded by social media users in Chile.



1635 GMT

The first tidal wave has hit French Polynesia at Gambier. It was under 1 meter, and no damage was reported.

1625 GMT

Google maps has released new maps for users to pinpoint the location of the quake and major population centers near the epicenter as well as other useful information.

A tsunami advisory is in effect for California. The initial wave is due to hit at 1:26 p.m. local time (2126 GMT).

1621 GMT:

Map of almost 30 aftershocks that have struck in and just off the coast of Chile:





1600 GMT

Chile in the past two months has been struck by more than a dozen earthquakes. The location and timelines are on this interactive map.

1547 GMT

The National Data Buoy Center has detected a tsunami 2,900 nautical miles southeast of Hawaii. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says the wave is currently hitting Papeete, Tahiti.

1534 GMT

Reports from the city of Concepcion confirm that the city has been the hardest hit. Santiago, the capital of the country, has also suffered damage. Chilean authorities say there are at least 122 deaths. CNN reports:
The capital of Santiago lost electricity and basic services including water and telephones. Bachelet said regional hospitals had suffered damage; some were evacuated. A major bridge connecting northern and southern Chile was rendered inoperable, and the Santiago airport was shut down for at least the next 24 hours.

Chilean television showed buildings in tatters in Concepcion, with whole sides torn off. At least two buildings there were engulfed in flames, and roads in the city were broken up, video showed.

1530 GMT

Reuters reports:

The White House said on Saturday it was closely monitoring the potential threat of a tsunami generated by a massive earthquake in Chile and said it stood ready to help Chile in its “hour of need.”Civil defense officials on the U.S. Pacific island state of Hawaii said they were preparing to start evacuations from shoreline communities.

1515 GMT

Tsunami warnings have been issued for these countries and territories so far:

American Samoa
Australia
Belau
Chuuk
Colombia
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Fiji
French Polynesia
Guam
Guatemala
Hawaii
Honduras
Howland and Baker Islands
Indonesia
Japan
Jarvis Island
Johnston Island
Kermadec Island
Kiribati
Kosrae
Marcus Island
Marshall Islands
Mexico
Midway Islands
Nauru
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Nicaragua
Northern Mariana Islands
Palmyra Island
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Pitcairn Island
Pohnpei
Russia
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Taiwan
Tokelau
Tonga
United States (Hawaii only)
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Wake Island
Yap

1502 GMT

Reports from Twitter suggest that a wave at least four feet high hit the cities of Coquimbo and Valparaiso in central Chile early this morning. The damage so far can not be assessed.

1447 GMT

The Ministry of Interior in Chile has issued a statement trying to calm residents about tsunami warnings. According to the ministry, the country was no longer in danger as the tidal waves have moved past Chile’s islands in the Pacific.

1442 GMT

A PersonFinder tool has been developed quickly by coders for use by concerned relatives and friends of Chileans and foreigners inside Chile. You can visit via Google to submit queries and find out information about your loved ones.

1440 GMT

A map showing when the tsunami generated by the quake will reach different regions in the Pacific Ocean:



1427 GMT

You can get information about survivors and victims from the Chilean Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela by calling one of these numbers: 9923378 / 9923378 / 9925364 / 9931538 / 9935770. You can also seek information from the Chilean consulate in the Ecuadoran city of  Guayaquil by calling (+593-4) 2564619, 2562995 or e-mailing cggye2@gye.satnet.net.

1424 GMT

New death toll: 85, according to the Chilean president. The number is just from one region, Maule, out of the three that have been severely affected by the Tsunami.

1403 GMT

From The New York Times:

[The earthquake] struck at 3:34 a.m. local time and was centered about 200 miles southwest of Santiago, at a depth of 22 miles, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The epicenter was some 70 miles from Concepcion, Chile’s second-largest city, where more than 200,000 people live....

The quake in Chile was 1,000 times more powerful than the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that caused widespread damage in Haiti on Jan 12, killing at least 230,000.

1345 GMT

CNN’s Nick Valencia reports that the Contemporary Art Museum in Santiago has fallen, and the Fine Arts Museum in the city has partially collapsed.

1340 GMT

CaribNews reports: All U.S. Embassy personel, about 118, are accounted for, the U.S. State Dept tells Breaking News Online, but the Embassy has no information on American casualties. A warning message has been sent to any Americans on the ground.

1335 GMT

Update on Airport in Santiago: newest reports indicate that the airport will now be closed for the next 72 hours.

1330 GMT

More news streaming out of Chile report of a dire situation in Concepcion, just 70 miles north of the epicenter of the quake. According to twitter sources, collapsed buildings can be seen in many parts of the city and communications are mostly down. CNN’s Betty Nguyen tweets: "Chile TV reporting 15-story building collapsed near epicenter. Witnesses hearing screams from people trapped inside."

1320 GMT

CNN has provided the following number to call from the US if you’re looking for people in Chile: 1-888-407-4747.

1315 GMT

ABS-CBN News reports:
Chile’s remote Robinson Crusoe Island was hit by a huge wave after a massive earthquake rocked the country and aid ships had been sent to the rescue, President Michelle Bachelet said Saturday. The island, part of the Juan Fernandez Archipelago, lies some 700 kilometres out in the Pacific from the Chilean mainland.

1310 GMT

Two new videos from Chile, showing the impact of the quake:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDL2ZBH8G9M&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZlRVDUK5vo&feature=player_embedded[/youtube

1305 GMT

Dozens of buildings and bridges have collapsed in Central Chile. The death toll remains at 78 at this point. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of people may be trapped under the rubble.

1300 GMT

In Hawaii, waves of up to 5 meters are expected as the tsunami travels west through the Pacific Ocean. All coasts of the island are dangerous and should be avoided. The tsunami is expected to make impact in Hawaii just past 11 a.m. local time (2100 GMT).

1237 GMT

Information on Hawaii's evacuation plan has been posted.

1230 GMT

The first set of pictures of devastation from the earthquake has emerged  from Chile, and there is also a picture from the city of Maipú in central Chile.

1219 GMT

The US state of Hawaii is under a Tsunami Warning.In other news, Santiago’s main airport is going to remain closed for the next 24 hours, according to Chilean officials.

1203 GMT:

Tsunami warnings and advisories have been issued by most countries lying within or at the edge of the Pacific Ocean. The first wave of the Tsunami is expected to hit Chile’s Easter Island, which lies 3,510 km (2,180 mi) west of continental Chile in the Pacific Ocean and evacuations there have been ordered. Here’s a picture of the areas that will be most affected by the Tsunami generated by the earthquake from Chile:

1144 GMT

Yahoo reports:
A massive magnitude-8.8 earthquake struck south-central Chile early on Saturday, killing at least 47 people, knocking down buildings and triggering a tsunami.

President Michelle Bachelet confirmed 47 deaths and said more were possible. Telephone and power lines were down, making damage assessments difficult in the early morning darkness.

“Never in my life have I experienced a quake like this, it’s like the end of the world,” one man told local television from the city of Temuco, where the quake damaged buildings and forced staff to evacuate the regional hospital.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake struck 56 miles northeast of the city of Concepcion at a depth of 22 miles at 3:34 a.m. (1:34 a.m. ET).

Chilean television and radio stations said several buildings collapsed in the city of Curico and that there was damage to buildings in the historic center of the capital Santiago, about 200 miles north of the epicenter.
The capital’s international airport was forced to close, a highway bridge collapsed and chunks of buildings fell into the street.

In the moments after the quake, people streamed onto the streets of the capital, hugging each other and crying.

There were blackouts in parts of Santiago and communications were still down in the area closest to the epicenter.

Bachelet urged people to stay calm. “With a quake of this size we undoubtedly can’t rule out more deaths and probably injuries,” she said.

An earthquake of magnitude 8 or over can cause “tremendous damage,” the USGS says. The quake that devastated Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince on January 12 was rated magnitude 7.0.

TSUNAMI

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the Chile quake generated a tsunami that may have been destructive along the coast near the epicenter “and could also be a threat to more distant coasts.”

It issued a tsunami warning for Chile and Peru, and a tsunami watch for Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Antarctica. Chile’s navy said officials had lifted the tsunami warning in southern Chile, local radio reported.

1100 GMT

As news from Chile starts to pour in, there has been another earthquake some fifty miles east of Japan’s Okinawa Islands. Both Chile and Japan lay on geologically active zones and earthquakes strike both countries frequently.

1056 GMT

The number of dead in has now risen to 78.The number is expected to rise as more reports from different parts of Central Chile reach the center. For now, all one could do is hope the loss of life is minimal.

1053 GMT

The US Coast Guard has released a Tsunami Advisory for the West Coast of the United States. According to their website:

A Tsunami Advisory means that a tsunami capable of producing strong currents or waves dangerous to persons in or very near the water is imminent or expected. Significant, widespread inundation is not expected for areas under an advisory. Currents may be hazardous to swimmers, boats, and coastal structures and may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival.

1044 GMT

Twitter user Elliott Yamin reports that at least 30 aftershocks have so far been felt in the Chilean capital after the initial quake.

1036 GMT

CNN’s Nick Valencia reports that Edmundo Perez Yoma, Chile’s Interior Minister, told local station TVN that the number of dead had now climbed to 64.

1033 GMT

Reuters now reports that the number of deaths in Chile has gone up to 47. According to their report, communications are down in Central Chile as well as telephone lines. This has made damage assessment very difficult. For now, the damage has been assessed as being tremendous. The quake was only 70 miles south of Chile’s second largest city, Concepcion.

1017 GMT



A magnitude 8.8 quake has hit Chile, southwest of the Chilean capital Santiago. So far, sporadic reports are coming in from different sources about the quake. What can be ascertained is that at least 16 people have died as a result of the earthquake. Extensive damage to Central Chile – which is the most populated part of the country – is expected. As more news reports come in, the Associated Press reported that Chilean president Michele Bachelet has declared a ’state of catastrophe’ for three regions in Central Chile. The AP also adds:

In the 2 1/2 hours following the 90-second quake, the U.S. Geological Survey reported 11 aftershocks, of which five measured 6.0 or above. The quake hit 200 miles (325 kilometers) southwest of the capital, Santiago, at a depth of 22 miles (35 kilometers) at 3:34 a.m. (0634 GMT; 1:34 a.m. EST), the U.S. Geological Survey reported…

There has been a tsunami warning issued for all the countries on the west coast of South America as well as some in Central America and others in Eastern Asia.

Quick Facts about Chile:

Location: West of Argentina in Southwestern South America.

Area: 292,183 square miles or roughly the size of the US states of Texas and Oklahoma combined.

Population: Over 17 million, most concentrated in the central part of the country.

Official language: Spanish

Capital and Largest City: Santiago