The Latest from Iran (28 February): What Do The Statements Mean?

2045 GMT: Sunday Absurdity. A slow day, which leading to a perusing of opinion in the newspapers. Unfortunately, that turns up a piece of anti-Muslim diatribe posing as analysis by Ephraim Karsh in The New York Times: "Muslims Won't Play Together". The slurs have to be read to be believed, but here is the policy recommendation: "A military strike must remain a serious option: there is no peaceful way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, stemming as they do from its imperialist brand of national-Islamism."

NEW Iran: Understanding the Assembly of Experts Statement “Crisis Continues”
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi’s Interview “Reform Within the Current Framework” (27 February)
Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting….
The Latest from Iran (27 February): The Mousavi Interview

1700 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has been at a conference in Tehran attended by Palestinian leaders such as Hamas' Khaled Meshaal, Islamic Jihad's Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, and the head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (General Command), Ahmed Jibril. Ahmadinejad offered this commentary:

With God's grace and thanks to the Palestinian resistance the occupying Zionist regime has lost its raison d'être. [Israel's] presence even in one inch of the region's soil causes threat, crisis and war. The only way to confront them (Israelis) is through the Palestinian youths' resistance, and that of the regional nations.

1435 GMT: US-Israel Front (cont.). Haaretz has more on Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Iran manoeuvres after his US trip (see 0955 GMT). Barak had indicated earlier that Israel would not pursue military action but would look for tougher sanction; however, in a talk in Washington, he returned to the formula that "everything is on the table":

It's clear to me that the clock toward the collapse of this regime works much slower than the clock which ticks toward Iran becoming a nuclear military power. And this is the reason why simultaneously with diplomacy and effective sanctions, we recommend to all players not to remove any option from the table and we adopt this attitude for ourselves as well.

1400 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Journalist Ali Hekmat, editor-in-chief of the banned newsaper Khordaad, has been released after two months in detention. Civil rights activist Jamshid Zarei has also been freed.

1325 GMT: That Larijani Fellow. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing to grab headlines after his trip to Japan, has spoken to the Majlis about the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, "Fortunately, his confessions confirmed our previous information on the close cooperation between the US and NATO and the terrorist grouplet."

1300 GMT: No Protests. A day after Mir Hossein Mousavi called for the regime to allow rallies, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has given a sharp rejection:

Even though some go on trying to agitate the atmosphere in society with statements... they've been given the answer by the people. We will not witness street demonstrations and we will not allow anyone to come to the streets to disrupt public security without proper permits....

Even though threats against the revolution will not come to an end, we will not succumb and certainly one day in the not so distant future despair will take them and they will surrender. The file on the election has been closed and law enforcement agencies have been asked to preserve security.

Having wielded a large stick, Doulatabadi offered a small carrot with the promise that some post-election detainees would be released before the Iranian New Year.

1220 GMT: O" the Economic Front. Kalemeh denounces President Ahmadinejad's slogan of bringing oil income to people's tables, comparing it with "vanished billions" in revenues.

Rah-e-Sabz reports on a protest at an Isfahan steel plant over seven months of unpaid wages.

1215 GMT: Bluster of Day. Deputy Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami warns, "Iran is standing on 50% of world's energy resources. If it decides to do so, Europe will spend the winter in the cold."

1205 GMT: Maintaining His Silence. The Supreme Leader used a meeting with Tehran's ambassador to take a nationally-televised swipe at the International Atomic Energy Agency, "Measures and reports of the agency show its lack of independence.... Unilateral acts erode trust in this institution and the United Nations and it is very bad for the reputation of these international assemblies."

No news there, as it is a restatement of Iran's public line on the IAEA, a day before the Agency's four-day discussion of a draft report on Tehran's nuclear programme. What is more intriguing is the Supreme Leader's lack of reference to Ali Larijani's manoeuvres in Japan for "third-party enrichment" (see 0935 GMT).

1155 GMT: MediaWatch. Leading US newspapers have noted and evaluated the Mousavi interview. Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times leads with Mousavi's accusation of the regime's "wasteful exercise" of 22 Bahman (11 February) but then puts his key point, "Mousavi offered few specifics on what the so-called green movement should do next."

In The Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink  takes a similar line with Mousavi's denuncation of the Government as a "gang with no respect for Iran's interests" and the note that "he did not, however, propose new strategies". Nazila Fathi has a shorter piece in The New York Times, following the Associated Press, with the criticism of the Iranian leadership as a dictatorial "cult" but with no comment on Mousavi's goals.

0955 GMT: On the US-Israel Front. Laura Rozen has an intriguing reading of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's appearance at the Washington Institute of Near Policy, after his meetings with senior Obama Administration officials:

It became quite clear that [Barak] did not want to answer [a] question about the state of U.S.-Israel relations on Iran....It was his impression that Washington believes that, while it’s highly undesirable, at the end of the day the U.S. could live with a nuclear Iran; [however] for Israel, Barak said, it would be a “tipping point” in the strategic equation in the region.

0945 GMT: Today's Propaganda Special. Iranian state media pronounces, "Rigi planned to meet Holbrooke in Kyrgyzstan", which paints the picture of the Jundullah leader sitting down with President Obama's special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke.

The source? "Famous Washington, D.C. based investigative journalist and reporter Wayne Madsen". Funny, but I don't actually see that on the website of "famous reporter" Madsen.

Safer, I think, for Iran's loudspeakers to rely on "Iranian forces bust terrorist cell in Azarbaijan".

Meanwhile, Jundullah has chosen a new leader to succeed Rigi.

0940 GMT: Speaking of Larijani. Ali Larijani has avoided the nuclear issue on his return to Iran from Japan, issuing instead an un-controversial condemnation of US policy in Afghanistan and an announcement that Japanese officials are willing to cooperate with Iran on the reconstruction of the Afghan infrastructure.

0935 GMT: The Larijani Debate. Elsewhere, there is a spirited discussion going on, as Ali Larijani returns to Iran from a five-day trip, over the significance of his manoeuvres in Japan, especially on the nuclear programme.

I stand by the reading that Larijani's sudden embrace of "3rd-party enrichment" (no doubt backed by the Supreme Leader) is a political move meant not only to keep open links with the international community but to out-manoeuvre and even push aside President Ahmadinejad. Mr Verde is more cautious:

I think Larijani’s talk of enrichment by Japan is an attempt by the Islamic Republic to break or slow down the anti-Iran posturing. Larijani may be chipping away at Ahmadinejad, but it is all with Supreme Leader's permission.

The post-elections protest shocked the regime and Khamenei. And the Larijani/[Ahmad] Tavakoli spat with Ahmadinejad is possibly an attempt to show that the Republic is not just one voice (that of the Supreme Leader) but it actually tolerates dissent.

A well-placed EA contact, however, is dismissive that there is any significance, writing of "incremental
developments that oftentimes go nowhere".

0930 GMT: We have published a Sunday special: there is a summary of the official statement of the Assembly of Experts, and a detailed analysis by Mr Verde: "The institutions of the Islamic Republic are unable to pull it out of the current crisis. All that have any power (at least on paper) are under the direct, and at times illegal, control of Khamenei."

0745 GMT: It will be a slightly later start this morning, as we wrap up our coverage of the Chile earthquake and tsunami watch and also pick up on the important statements out of Iran.

We have posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Saturday interview with Kalemeh. Initial reading is both of a Mousavi trying to maintain the momentum of opposition but also carefully defining how far the challenge goes --- is it enough to call for the "spread of awareness", "free rallies", and "adherence to the Constitution" if the regime stands firm against even those measured demands? We'll think about that today, looking forward to an analysis on Monday.

Later today, however, we may have an equally important reading. The official statement of the Assembly of Experts, which did not appear for several days after last week's meeting, is now posted. Beyond its loyalty to the Supreme Leader, the references to the opposition are not clear. Was this really the declaration that "sedition" would be put down and opposition would longer be acceptable in the Iranian system?

Today's Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: LiveBlog

Given the damage and deaths from today's earthquake off the coast of Chile and the declaration of a Tsunami Warning, EA is "mirroring" the LiveBlog of Josh Shahryar:

There is a live stream from Chile (in Spanish) on latest developments. The country is three hours behind Greenwich Mean Time:

Chile Earthquake/Tsunami Watch: Follow-Up (28 February)

2255 GMT

Continued activity but no drama --- CNN is loudly filling time. We're handing over to the Hawaii live stream. Readers are invited to send in any information.


2240 GMT

Hawaii awaits the third wave of the tsunami. Live footage shows a reef in Hilo Bay disappearing as water rises.

2218 GMT

As Honolulu television shows live shots of Hilo Bay, a gentleman can be seen clearly walking along the beach. Anchor: "That's probably one of the most idiotic things I've seen." A reporter adds that three or four surfers are "having a heckuva session".

2210 GMT:

The death toll is now 214, according to the Chilean Interior Ministry.

The 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile was the fifth-strongest in history. In towns close to the epicenter, including Curico and Talca, more than 80 percent of buildings collapsed.

There have now been 63 major aftershocks.

2205 GMT:

Report of 5-foot tidal wave at Chatham Islands, 430 miles southeast of New Zealand.

2200 GMT:

Oscillations are from a metre above normal level to a metre below, in intervals of about 20 minutes.

2150 GMT

There are indications that the first waves of a tsunami may be arriving at Hawaii, but image still indicate shifting tidal patterns so far rather than a large build-up of water.

2135 GMT

Reports of water receding near Hilo. Reef now exposed at Hilo Bay. Coconut Beach completely under water.

2110 GMT

Reports of tidal shifts off Oahu but no sign of tsunami yet at Hilo on Hawaii's largest island.

1850 GMT

Canada is ready to offer help to Chile. CTV reports:

The prime minister says Canada is ready to help in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake in Chile. In a statement, Stephen Harper says Canadian officials in Santiago and Ottawa are assessing the damage, and trying to determine whether any Canadians are affected.

1847 GMT

As the tsunami warning in Hawaii reaches the citizens, more people are stockpiling food, fuel and other supplies in case the tsunami causes major damage. The Weather Channel feed is providing a steady stream of photographs.

1835 GMT

The director of the National Emergencies Office of Chile has announced that the number of dead stands at 147.

1814 GMT

Report that at least 209 prisoners have escaped from the main prison in Chillan. Chillan is located in the Biobío region, which has been the most seriously affected region.

1808 GMT

Boston.com has pictures of the damage caused by the earthquake.

1805 GMT

All college campuses in Hawaii have been closed. Surfers have been cautioned to stay off the beaches. Waikiki corridor will shut down in 3 hours.

1802 GMT

US President Barack Obama is expected to make a statement about the Chile earthquake in about an hour.

1800 GMT

The US government has confirmed that so far no Americans have been reported missing or dead.

1755 GMT

Fatalities have now been reported from the Juan Fernandez Islands. At least 3 people have been killed and 10 are missing after a large wave inundated large portions of the island’s coast.

At least 3 people are missing on Robinson Crusoe Island.

1733 GMT

The waves that hit French Polynesia were as high as 6 feet (2 metres), but no damage assessment is available yet.

A new wiki to help in search, rescue, and gathering of information has been created and uploaded.

1730 GMT

The White House has issued the number for US citizens seeking information about loved ones in Chile. You can call the State Department’s Consular Affairs Bureau on 1-888-407-4747.

1725 GMT

At least five people have been confirmed to have died in Viña del Mar in Valparaíso Province, north of Santiago. The Dutch Foreign Ministry says it is still trying to account for 27 Dutch nationals.

1710 GMT

The reported times of arrival of the tsunami in the Hawaiian Islands:

Hilo: 11:05 a.m. (2105 GMT)

Maui: 11:35 a.m. (2135 GMT)

Oahu: 11:50 a.m. (2150 GMT)

Wave surges are expected to be 9-12 feet. Hilo airport has been closed.

1705 GMT

The death toll currently remains at 122 with perhaps hundreds more injured. Reuters reports that it would take almost three days to assess the situation fully, but the death toll is likely to not rise dramatically.

1700 GMT

Reports on Twitter from the Juan Fernandez Islands are grim. According to a pilot who flew over the islands, the tsunami waves have caused wide-spread destruction in a zone of three kilometres (a little less than 1.4 miles).

1648 GMT

Reports indicate that Chile's Juan Fernandez Islands may have been severely hit by the tsunami. The islands are 415 miles west of the Chilean mainland and have a population of around 500 people.

1641 GMT

The tsunami is expected to hit the Philippines on February 28:

Davao [6.8N 125.7E] at around  1:25 PM

Palanan [17.1N 122.6E] at about 1:59 PM

Legaspi [13.2N 123.8E] at about  2:04 PM

1633 GMT

An earthquake registering 6.3 has hit close to the city of Salta in northern Argentina, on the border with Chile.

1630 GMT

Dozens of pictures have been uploaded by social media users in Chile.



1635 GMT

The first tidal wave has hit French Polynesia at Gambier. It was under 1 meter, and no damage was reported.

1625 GMT

Google maps has released new maps for users to pinpoint the location of the quake and major population centers near the epicenter as well as other useful information.

A tsunami advisory is in effect for California. The initial wave is due to hit at 1:26 p.m. local time (2126 GMT).

1621 GMT:

Map of almost 30 aftershocks that have struck in and just off the coast of Chile:





1600 GMT

Chile in the past two months has been struck by more than a dozen earthquakes. The location and timelines are on this interactive map.

1547 GMT

The National Data Buoy Center has detected a tsunami 2,900 nautical miles southeast of Hawaii. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says the wave is currently hitting Papeete, Tahiti.

1534 GMT

Reports from the city of Concepcion confirm that the city has been the hardest hit. Santiago, the capital of the country, has also suffered damage. Chilean authorities say there are at least 122 deaths. CNN reports:

The capital of Santiago lost electricity and basic services including water and telephones. Bachelet said regional hospitals had suffered damage; some were evacuated. A major bridge connecting northern and southern Chile was rendered inoperable, and the Santiago airport was shut down for at least the next 24 hours.

Chilean television showed buildings in tatters in Concepcion, with whole sides torn off. At least two buildings there were engulfed in flames, and roads in the city were broken up, video showed.

1530 GMT

Reuters reports:

The White House said on Saturday it was closely monitoring the potential threat of a tsunami generated by a massive earthquake in Chile and said it stood ready to help Chile in its “hour of need.”Civil defense officials on the U.S. Pacific island state of Hawaii said they were preparing to start evacuations from shoreline communities.

1515 GMT

Tsunami warnings have been issued for these countries and territories so far:

American Samoa
Australia
Belau
Chuuk
Colombia
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Fiji
French Polynesia
Guam
Guatemala
Hawaii
Honduras
Howland and Baker Islands
Indonesia
Japan
Jarvis Island
Johnston Island
Kermadec Island
Kiribati
Kosrae
Marcus Island
Marshall Islands
Mexico
Midway Islands
Nauru
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Nicaragua
Northern Mariana Islands
Palmyra Island
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Pitcairn Island
Pohnpei
Russia
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Taiwan
Tokelau
Tonga
United States (Hawaii only)
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Wake Island
Yap

1502 GMT

Reports from Twitter suggest that a wave at least four feet high hit the cities of Coquimbo and Valparaiso in central Chile early this morning. The damage so far can not be assessed.

1447 GMT

The Ministry of Interior in Chile has issued a statement trying to calm residents about tsunami warnings. According to the ministry, the country was no longer in danger as the tidal waves have moved past Chile’s islands in the Pacific.

1442 GMT

A PersonFinder tool has been developed quickly by coders for use by concerned relatives and friends of Chileans and foreigners inside Chile. You can visit via Google to submit queries and find out information about your loved ones.

1440 GMT

A map showing when the tsunami generated by the quake will reach different regions in the Pacific Ocean:



1427 GMT

You can get information about survivors and victims from the Chilean Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela by calling one of these numbers: 9923378 / 9923378 / 9925364 / 9931538 / 9935770. You can also seek information from the Chilean consulate in the Ecuadoran city of  Guayaquil by calling (+593-4) 2564619, 2562995 or e-mailing cggye2@gye.satnet.net.

1424 GMT

New death toll: 85, according to the Chilean president. The number is just from one region, Maule, out of the three that have been severely affected by the Tsunami.

1403 GMT

From The New York Times:

[The earthquake] struck at 3:34 a.m. local time and was centered about 200 miles southwest of Santiago, at a depth of 22 miles, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The epicenter was some 70 miles from Concepcion, Chile’s second-largest city, where more than 200,000 people live....

The quake in Chile was 1,000 times more powerful than the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that caused widespread damage in Haiti on Jan 12, killing at least 230,000.

1345 GMT

CNN’s Nick Valencia reports that the Contemporary Art Museum in Santiago has fallen, and the Fine Arts Museum in the city has partially collapsed.

1340 GMT

CaribNews reports: All U.S. Embassy personel, about 118, are accounted for, the U.S. State Dept tells Breaking News Online, but the Embassy has no information on American casualties. A warning message has been sent to any Americans on the ground.

1335 GMT

Update on Airport in Santiago: newest reports indicate that the airport will now be closed for the next 72 hours.

1330 GMT

More news streaming out of Chile report of a dire situation in Concepcion, just 70 miles north of the epicenter of the quake. According to twitter sources, collapsed buildings can be seen in many parts of the city and communications are mostly down. CNN’s Betty Nguyen tweets: "Chile TV reporting 15-story building collapsed near epicenter. Witnesses hearing screams from people trapped inside."

1320 GMT

CNN has provided the following number to call from the US if you’re looking for people in Chile: 1-888-407-4747.

1315 GMT

ABS-CBN News reports:

Chile’s remote Robinson Crusoe Island was hit by a huge wave after a massive earthquake rocked the country and aid ships had been sent to the rescue, President Michelle Bachelet said Saturday. The island, part of the Juan Fernandez Archipelago, lies some 700 kilometres out in the Pacific from the Chilean mainland.

1310 GMT

Two new videos from Chile, showing the impact of the quake:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDL2ZBH8G9M&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZlRVDUK5vo&feature=player_embedded[/youtube

1305 GMT

Dozens of buildings and bridges have collapsed in Central Chile. The death toll remains at 78 at this point. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of people may be trapped under the rubble.

1300 GMT

In Hawaii, waves of up to 5 meters are expected as the tsunami travels west through the Pacific Ocean. All coasts of the island are dangerous and should be avoided. The tsunami is expected to make impact in Hawaii just past 11 a.m. local time (2100 GMT).

1237 GMT

Information on Hawaii's evacuation plan has been posted.

1230 GMT

The first set of pictures of devastation from the earthquake has emerged  from Chile, and there is also a picture from the city of Maipú in central Chile.

1219 GMT

The US state of Hawaii is under a Tsunami Warning.In other news, Santiago’s main airport is going to remain closed for the next 24 hours, according to Chilean officials.

1203 GMT:

Tsunami warnings and advisories have been issued by most countries lying within or at the edge of the Pacific Ocean. The first wave of the Tsunami is expected to hit Chile’s Easter Island, which lies 3,510 km (2,180 mi) west of continental Chile in the Pacific Ocean and evacuations there have been ordered. Here’s a picture of the areas that will be most affected by the Tsunami generated by the earthquake from Chile:

1144 GMT

Yahoo reports:

A massive magnitude-8.8 earthquake struck south-central Chile early on Saturday, killing at least 47 people, knocking down buildings and triggering a tsunami.

President Michelle Bachelet confirmed 47 deaths and said more were possible. Telephone and power lines were down, making damage assessments difficult in the early morning darkness.

“Never in my life have I experienced a quake like this, it’s like the end of the world,” one man told local television from the city of Temuco, where the quake damaged buildings and forced staff to evacuate the regional hospital.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake struck 56 miles northeast of the city of Concepcion at a depth of 22 miles at 3:34 a.m. (1:34 a.m. ET).

Chilean television and radio stations said several buildings collapsed in the city of Curico and that there was damage to buildings in the historic center of the capital Santiago, about 200 miles north of the epicenter.
The capital’s international airport was forced to close, a highway bridge collapsed and chunks of buildings fell into the street.

In the moments after the quake, people streamed onto the streets of the capital, hugging each other and crying.

There were blackouts in parts of Santiago and communications were still down in the area closest to the epicenter.

Bachelet urged people to stay calm. “With a quake of this size we undoubtedly can’t rule out more deaths and probably injuries,” she said.

An earthquake of magnitude 8 or over can cause “tremendous damage,” the USGS says. The quake that devastated Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince on January 12 was rated magnitude 7.0.

TSUNAMI

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the Chile quake generated a tsunami that may have been destructive along the coast near the epicenter “and could also be a threat to more distant coasts.”

It issued a tsunami warning for Chile and Peru, and a tsunami watch for Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Antarctica. Chile’s navy said officials had lifted the tsunami warning in southern Chile, local radio reported.

1100 GMT

As news from Chile starts to pour in, there has been another earthquake some fifty miles east of Japan’s Okinawa Islands. Both Chile and Japan lay on geologically active zones and earthquakes strike both countries frequently.

1056 GMT

The number of dead in has now risen to 78.The number is expected to rise as more reports from different parts of Central Chile reach the center. For now, all one could do is hope the loss of life is minimal.

1053 GMT

The US Coast Guard has released a Tsunami Advisory for the West Coast of the United States. According to their website:

A Tsunami Advisory means that a tsunami capable of producing strong currents or waves dangerous to persons in or very near the water is imminent or expected. Significant, widespread inundation is not expected for areas under an advisory. Currents may be hazardous to swimmers, boats, and coastal structures and may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival.

1044 GMT

Twitter user Elliott Yamin reports that at least 30 aftershocks have so far been felt in the Chilean capital after the initial quake.

1036 GMT

CNN’s Nick Valencia reports that Edmundo Perez Yoma, Chile’s Interior Minister, told local station TVN that the number of dead had now climbed to 64.

1033 GMT

Reuters now reports that the number of deaths in Chile has gone up to 47. According to their report, communications are down in Central Chile as well as telephone lines. This has made damage assessment very difficult. For now, the damage has been assessed as being tremendous. The quake was only 70 miles south of Chile’s second largest city, Concepcion.

1017 GMT



A magnitude 8.8 quake has hit Chile, southwest of the Chilean capital Santiago. So far, sporadic reports are coming in from different sources about the quake. What can be ascertained is that at least 16 people have died as a result of the earthquake. Extensive damage to Central Chile – which is the most populated part of the country – is expected. As more news reports come in, the Associated Press reported that Chilean president Michele Bachelet has declared a ’state of catastrophe’ for three regions in Central Chile. The AP also adds:

In the 2 1/2 hours following the 90-second quake, the U.S. Geological Survey reported 11 aftershocks, of which five measured 6.0 or above. The quake hit 200 miles (325 kilometers) southwest of the capital, Santiago, at a depth of 22 miles (35 kilometers) at 3:34 a.m. (0634 GMT; 1:34 a.m. EST), the U.S. Geological Survey reported…

There has been a tsunami warning issued for all the countries on the west coast of South America as well as some in Central America and others in Eastern Asia.

Quick Facts about Chile:

Location: West of Argentina in Southwestern South America.

Area: 292,183 square miles or roughly the size of the US states of Texas and Oklahoma combined.

Population: Over 17 million, most concentrated in the central part of the country.

Official language: Spanish

Capital and Largest City: Santiago

The Latest from Iran (27 February): The Mousavi Interview

2230 GMT: Sneaking Out the News. It appears that the official statement of the Assembly of Experts meeting has been quietly placed on its website. We are reviewing and will have an analysis in the morning.

First impression is that while the statement is effusive about the "leadership and guidance" of the Supreme Leader to get Iran through the post-election crisis, it is not as severe in condemning the "sedition" of the opposition as the alleged statement released by Fars News in mid-week.

2115 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his Japan tour with a visit to the Peace Memorial Museum in Nagasaki, declared both Tehran's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and the perfidy of the West:

Iran will host an international conference on nuclear disarmament within the next two months....After the bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US made no change in its policies. Two nuclear bombs of the United States have now increased to tens of thousands.

NEW Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting….
Iran Document: Latest Karroubi Interview “The Shah Didn’t Behave Like This”
Iran: Mousavi, The Regime, & “The Prerequisites of Escalation”
Latest Iran Video: The Rigi “Confession” (25 February)
Iran Analysis: Khamenei’s Not-So-Big Push
Iran Follow-Up: Interpreting the Assembly of Experts “The Certainty of the Uncertain”
The Latest from Iran (26 February): Closing the Door?

2100 GMT: And the Jundullah Beat Goes On. More of the same from Iran's Foreign Ministry on Saturday, via spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast:

Ties between this terrorist group and security services of the so-called advocates of human rights including the US, Britain and certain other countries indicate that they are not honest about their claims of having respect for human rights.

The support of certain so-called human rights advocates for terrorist groups and criminals such as Abdolmalek Rigi has turned into a routine issue. We have always witnessed the support of these countries for terrorist groups to continue their moves in the region.

1720 GMT: Waiting for News on "Earthquake Weapons". Apart from the Mousavi interview, a quiet day inside Iran. Press TV's website has noted the Chilean earthquake and tsunami warning; so far, however, it has not blamed the disaster on US "secret weapons" (as Iran and Venezuela did with Haiti).

1505 GMT: Academic Newsflash. Fars News reports that more than 1000 "experts" have asked for an independent inquiry of the 11 September 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The article is based on a press conference held by Architects and Engineers for 9-11 Truth on 19 February.

1455 GMT: Almost all major news outlets now have summaries of the Mousavi interview. A prominent Iranian activist, via Iran News Now, offers anotherabridged version in English that parallels our translation (see 0955 GMT).

1235 GMT: Discovering Mousavi. Agence France Presse and the Los Angeles Times have now noted Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview (see 0955 GMT). Both are picking up on Mousavi's condemnation of the 22 Bahman "engineered" rally by the regime and his call for a "free" march of the Iranian people.

1200 GMT: Big in the Countryside? Peyke Iran claims that the publications, Hemmat and Mowj-Andishe, banned earlier this year are still distributed in Iran's provinces. Both are allegedly linked to President Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

0955 GMT: Mousavi's Interview. Setareh Sabety provides a few important extracts: "Mr. Karroubi and I, in our meeting, decided that we will once again ask for a permit, according to Article 27 of the Constitution, for a march that will put an end to the rumors and accusations."

Referring to 22 Bahman (11 February) as an "engineered" rally, Mousavi says that he does not like "insulting those who do not agree with us" and continues, "We did not suppose that everyone shared our opinions or that those who were not like-minded were bad people. All are our compatriots with the exception of some sabre-wielding thugs and murderers."

Mousavi compares the amount of money and methods used to muster crowds and transport them to Tehran for 22 Bahman --- "these kinds of engineered and mandatory rallies remind us of those used prior to tne 1979 Revolution" --- with the protest of the opposition. "Our movement looks like a traditional bazaar with many kiosks, cafes and store fronts of opinion connected to one another," Mousavi asserts, and he ends with an optimistc question, "When millions of young students are part of this movement, which is unique in our history and perhaps in the history of the world, how can we not have hope for the future?"

0950 GMT: Economy Watch. Seyyed Hossein Hashemi, the head of the Mining Commission, has declared that if Iran continues its present level of imports, "grave problems will arise". He warned in particular of under-investment in the domestic metal and mining industries.

0945 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary (A Day Later). Rah-e-Sabz offers a biting commentary on the Friday Prayers of Tehran's Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati and other clerics: "Praise of the Assembly Experts and [Jundullah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi's arrest, that's all."

0940 GMT: So Much for Unity. Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President, pronounced in a speech before Friday Prayers in Isfahan that the National Unity Plan "equals the reconciliation of Yazid with Imam Hossein" (Yazid, in fact, killed Hossein)". He declared, "After all these insults, why should we sit at a table for the 'dialogue of civilizations'? We have nano-technology and we have a nano-quarrel."

0930 GMT: Economy Watch. Member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli, writing in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online, declares that the Government's claims on implementation its subsidy reform plan are ridiculous: "In the current year the administration has not taken an actual step for executing subsidy reform bill. The Government should have requested the permission of the Majlis [Parliament] for amending the bill, but it didn't."

Rah-e-Sabz publishes a long anlaysis by Professor Mohsen Massarrat with "Answers to the Riddle of the Subsidies", especially in the energy sector.

0905 GMT: No doubt what the big story will be this morning. Kalemeh has just posted its interview with Mir Hossein Mousavi (see separate, earlier analysis). The tone is defiant, but the deeper issue will be the substance of Mousavi's call. Defending the opposition over 22 Bahman and calling for a "spread of awareness" is fair enough, but it is the substance of Mousavi's 5 points --- issued in his statement of 1 January --- that gave a boost to political demands. We'll be reading closely to see if and how Mousavi expands that platform.

Elsewhere, Robert Mackey of The New York Times has a thoughtful, in-depth consideration of the regime's propaganda over the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi. He raises the interesting point that the spin on Rigi's "confession" of his contacts with US officials is meant to discredit President Obama's "engagement" launched in his March 2009 Nowruz address to the Iranian people.

Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting....

URGENT UPDATE 1000 GMT: We've posted extracts from the interview in our latest updates.

0830 GMT: The Mousavi interview on Kalemeh has just come out. The takeaway line is "Spreading Awareness is the Goal of the Green Movement", but there is far more here to be read and analysed.

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Whisper it softly, because the "Western" media are still sleeping, but politics is on the move again in Iran.

Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has put out advance notice this morning that an interview with Mousavi will be coming out later today. No word on content, but this follows last weekend's assurance from a Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting that they would soon be letting the Iranian people know of their plans and Karroubi's mid-week interviews with his website and with an Italian newspaper.

Meanwhile, in Japan, Ali Larijani is making a big push from within the establishment. The signal of a deal for Japan to carry out "3rd party enrichment" on Iran's uranium is a major international development, but its internal implications are just as significant. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been in Syria, is on-board with the Larijani (and probably Larijani-Khamenei) manoeuvre, that points to a coordinated push to move n the nuclear issue and Iran's regional position. However, if the President is out of the loop on the initiative, then Larijani is establishing his credential as the major "secular" player in Iranian politics.


Incredibly, given the attention to the nuclear issue, not many "Western" journalists have noticed the Japan development. Instead, our favourite New York Times reporter, David Sanger, takes the award for If You Don't Know, Just Make Up Some Crazy Stuff. Sanger takes on the question of why Iran moved most of its low-enriched uranium to an above-ground facility two weeks ago (simple answer: Ahmadinejad and Co. wanted a very public demonstration that they could make at least a tiny bit of 20% uranium from 3.5% stock). Since he has no information other than Washington chit-chat (whether it is based on actual intelligence, rumour, or propaganda), this is where the piece winds up:

The strangest of the speculations — but the one that is being talked about most — is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is inviting an attack to unify the country after eight months of street demonstrations that have pitted millions of Iranians against their government.

A somewhat most significant story, albeit based on more over-statement comes from the address of Ehud Barak, the Israeli Defense Minister, to the Wasihngton Institute for Near East Policy:

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak raised doubts Friday on the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear strike on his country.

I don't think the Iranians, even if they got the bomb, (will) drop it in the neighborhood. They fully understand what might follow. They are radical but not totally crazy.

Barak's signal came after meetings with US officials like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In contrast to Sanger, the Israeli minister --- and the State Department --- are taking the rationale for an Israeli military attack on Iran off the table. The push will be for stricter economic sanctions.

Not that those sanctions are assured of an easy passage. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov put out his own signal, eagerly received by Iran's state media:

There is no evidence that Iran has made a decision to produce nuclear weapons. If we go with the sanctions, we'll not go beyond the goal of our purpose of defending the nonproliferation regime.

We don't want the nonproliferation regime to be used for ... strangling Iran, or taking some steps to deteriorate the situation [and] the living standards of people in Iran.

That's not a total rejection of more sanctions but a carefully-worded statement that any new steps will have to be measured and only pursued after much discussion.

Which brings us back to the really interesting news. While the international show goes on, it is the Iranians themselves --- be it a Mousavi or a Larijani --- who deserve watching right now.

Iraq Analysis: Thomas Friedman and the Never-Ending "Liberal Intervention"

UPDATE 0915 GMT: Here is what, in today's power politics, is what the rhetoric of "liberal intervention" props up. Thomas Ricks declares, alongside Friedman's piece in The New York Times, "Leaders in [the US and Iraq] may come to recognize that the best way to deter a return to civil war is to find a way to keep 30,000 to 50,000 United States service members in Iraq for many years to come."

Seven years after the 2003 war and the violence and disorder that followed, Iraq has moved on to other political conflicts and issues. Yet, for some, this will always be a case of returning to the scene to construct victory or to build the excuse for absolution. War must become liberation, crime must become justice, tragedy must become redemption.

Iraq: How Serious is the Sunni Election Boycott?
Photos of the Decade: 2004 (Abu Ghraib)

One of those who persists is New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. This morning Friedman, who used his "liberal" drum to bang loudly and incessantly for the 2003 invasion, opens his column:

From the very beginning of the U.S. intervention in Iraq and the effort to build some kind of democracy there, a simple but gnawing question has lurked in the background: Was Iraq the way Iraq was (a dictatorship) because Saddam was the way Saddam was, or was Saddam the way Saddam was because Iraq was the way Iraq was — a collection of warring sects incapable of self-rule and only governable with an iron fist?

Initially, the sentence is so confusing to risk being vacuous. Don't be fooled: in its morass of words lies the self-belief that distinguishes not only Friedman but many of those who cling to "our" (and "our" has nothing to do with those who live in Iraq) righteousness in waging the conflict.

Friedman has little cognizance of what is happening in Iraq in 2010, but that is not the point of his editorial, which dismisses any need to consider today: "Will Iraq’s new politics triumph over its cultural divides, or will its cultural/sectarian divides sink its fledgling democracy? We still don’t know."

Instead, returning to his tangled opening, Friedman has a different, self-justifying mission: if the man who became (in)famous for repeatedly declaring that the US would triumph in "six more months" (Wikipedia even has re-defined a duration of six months as a "Friedman) can ever declare progress in Iraq, then the US and Thomas Friedman are vindicated for liberating the country from a dictator. If progress is elusive, then it is because of the inherent flaws of these frustrating creatures called "Iraqis". Heads, we win; tails, you lose.

Let's be clear here. For all his chest-thumping of sincerity, Friedman's words pay little if any attention to the concerns or aspirations of those in Iraq. It is notable that the only source for today's thoughts is General Raymond Odierno, the US commander in the country, who Friedman quotes without any reflection. And it is notable that Friedman's ambitions are about the threat to the US, not to Iraqis, and about the fulfilment of "our", not "their", political visions:

The two scenarios you don’t want to see are: 1) Iraq’s tribal culture triumphing over politics and the country becoming a big Somalia with oil; or 2) as America fades away, Iraq’s Shiite government aligning itself more with Iran, and Iran becoming the kingmaker in Iraq the way Syria has made itself in Lebanon.

Let's be clear, however. This issue goes far beyond Thomas Friedman, who will continue to absolve himself at length and at regular intervals. Many commentators as well as public officials, sometimes with good intentions, advocated the invasion of Iraq for the liberation of its people. They usually did so, however, with little knowledge of and regard for Iraqis. Thus the 2005 exchange between Jeffrey Goldberg of The New Yorker and Bush Administration official Douglas Feith:

When I asked...if the Administration was too enamored of the idea that Iraqis would greet American troops with flowers, [Feith] argued that some Iraqis were still too intimidated by the remnants of Saddam’s Baath Party to express their emotions openly. “But,” Feith said, “they had flowers in their minds.”

Hundreds of thousands of deaths later, Iraq faces complex political, economic, and social issues. The reality is that the 100,000+ US troops, as well as numerous diplomats, advisors, and intelligence operatives, in the country are peripheral to the conflicts and negotiations. But Friedman, and those who share his viewpoint, cannot acknowledge that. There must be a vindication for what "we" sought to do for "them" in 2003. There has to be history's verdict, handed down in favour of the US.

Because, in the end, "liberal intervention" means never having to say you're sorry.