Saturday
Feb272010
Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting....
Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 8:17 
URGENT UPDATE 1000 GMT: We've posted extracts from the interview in our latest updates.0830 GMT: The Mousavi interview on Kalemeh has just come out. The takeaway line is "Spreading Awareness is the Goal of the Green Movement", but there is far more here to be read and analysed.
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Whisper it softly, because the "Western" media are still sleeping, but politics is on the move again in Iran.
Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has put out advance notice this morning that an interview with Mousavi will be coming out later today. No word on content, but this follows last weekend's assurance from a Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting that they would soon be letting the Iranian people know of their plans and Karroubi's mid-week interviews with his website and with an Italian newspaper.
Meanwhile, in Japan, Ali Larijani is making a big push from within the establishment. The signal of a deal for Japan to carry out "3rd party enrichment" on Iran's uranium is a major international development, but its internal implications are just as significant. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been in Syria, is on-board with the Larijani (and probably Larijani-Khamenei) manoeuvre, that points to a coordinated push to move n the nuclear issue and Iran's regional position. However, if the President is out of the loop on the initiative, then Larijani is establishing his credential as the major "secular" player in Iranian politics.
Incredibly, given the attention to the nuclear issue, not many "Western" journalists have noticed the Japan development. Instead, our favourite New York Times reporter, David Sanger, takes the award for If You Don't Know, Just Make Up Some Crazy Stuff. Sanger takes on the question of why Iran moved most of its low-enriched uranium to an above-ground facility two weeks ago (simple answer: Ahmadinejad and Co. wanted a very public demonstration that they could make at least a tiny bit of 20% uranium from 3.5% stock). Since he has no information other than Washington chit-chat (whether it is based on actual intelligence, rumour, or propaganda), this is where the piece winds up:
The strangest of the speculations — but the one that is being talked about most — is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is inviting an attack to unify the country after eight months of street demonstrations that have pitted millions of Iranians against their government.
A somewhat most significant story, albeit based on more over-statement comes from the address of Ehud Barak, the Israeli Defense Minister, to the Wasihngton Institute for Near East Policy:
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak raised doubts Friday on the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear strike on his country.
I don't think the Iranians, even if they got the bomb, (will) drop it in the neighborhood. They fully understand what might follow. They are radical but not totally crazy.
Barak's signal came after meetings with US officials like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In contrast to Sanger, the Israeli minister --- and the State Department --- are taking the rationale for an Israeli military attack on Iran off the table. The push will be for stricter economic sanctions.
Not that those sanctions are assured of an easy passage. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov put out his own signal, eagerly received by Iran's state media:
There is no evidence that Iran has made a decision to produce nuclear weapons. If we go with the sanctions, we'll not go beyond the goal of our purpose of defending the nonproliferation regime.
We don't want the nonproliferation regime to be used for ... strangling Iran, or taking some steps to deteriorate the situation [and] the living standards of people in Iran.
That's not a total rejection of more sanctions but a carefully-worded statement that any new steps will have to be measured and only pursued after much discussion.
Which brings us back to the really interesting news. While the international show goes on, it is the Iranians themselves --- be it a Mousavi or a Larijani --- who deserve watching right now.
Reader Comments (9)
Hmmm - most newspaper reports I have read indicate that Japan "neither confirms nor denies" this concept. But this one from AFP http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j6DGS94bYjmVj-k1pv_1XU4cVbng states that the Japanese Foreign Minister has denied any formal "offer".
Barry
Barry,
Watching carefully but, given Larijani's previous hostility to any deal, I don't think he puts out this message unless there is a shift in his position and thus a prospect --- at least in his eyes --- of a bargain.
S.
HI Scott
Yes - watching , watching!! :)
But considering some of the misinfo that comes out of Iran - I am not sure that I would believe that Larijani was incapable of "stretching the truth" a little. They are all getting desperate! :)
Barry
Politicians in both Washington and Tehran can dance around the one important issue as much as they want but the fact of the matter is that without a secular and democratic Iran troubleshooting global security, terrorism, conflict in the Middle East and other calamities cannot be resolved. Iranian politics has too many unaccountable and competing heads that need to be streamlined and with an Ahmadinejad government in power, confusion is their best weapon to keep the world guessing.
Mousavi and Karoubi will soon have to make a final decision in whether they stand with the people of Iran or with the system, as all efforts to reform the regime will come to no avail.
I also want to add that for 30 years the Europeans have put trade over politics in Iran, now Iranian politics has come back to haunt them. Its time they stepped up to the plate and found a new ally in Iran, the people.
Fools. Look around: it's winter and there will be no more flowering of a revolution. Mousavi? Ha! (The only thing worthy about "Mir" is that it's the Russian name for a space station). Look over here in my domain where I, the Grand President, negotiate the important issues.
A Mousavi-Karroubi statement? Dust! We crushed the nascent velvet revolution, orange revolution, and now with the capture of the Baluchi scum on his way to a meeting in Kyrgystan, we will learn all about the 2005 Tulip Revolution that overthrew Askar Akayev in Kyrgystan. Let Kurmanbek Bakiyev keep his US and Russian air bases -- our spies will keep an eye on all of it.
Mousavi-Karroubi Tulips? It is the winter of all dreams, even in Japan. We will defeat all flowers easily, and crush them with a velvet glove thrown to the ground in dust.
If you really want to know what's important, look to me. I've been to Syria, I've been to Copenhagan. Ha, Larijani doesn't even speak Japanese, and he doesn't know a tulip from a lotus blossom.
Watch for it: I'm giving another important speech on culture. Look over here to me if you wish to reach paradise through the wisdom of the Supreme Leader. It's not the diversion of the Uranium: it's the diversion of us, the great ones who prepare for the 12th Imam.
We are the guides of the world.
Jaw jaw is always better than fighting on the streets. There has been enough loss of innocent life & abuses on both sides & the only people to benefit from further violence & street battles are extreme elements in the various camps both in the secular & religious camps. Raffets is right to seek to focus on unity of purpose first & that in all political systems always focusses around the leadership first. Most of the political groups & Iranians support the current constitution & a principal pillar of that is the VF. It is right & it is his duty to seek to bring the various forces together. Mistakes have been made by all sides but it is time to move on & mend hearts & minds & not allow US/Israeli sponsored trouble makers to undermine & derail the Islamic Republic project. No great nation can fulfil its natural potential without jumping through some hoops and these get bigger as the nation develops. To his credit, Khamanei acted quicker than Obama (has done with Guantanamo) in closing Kahrizak down, this shows he does have a heart & is decisive once things are obvious. There is no obvious constitutional provision that he has been guilty of & as of the many allegations against him, until they are proven, he remains innocent. In any case his crimes are certainly of a lesser nature as compared to other US supported Muslim leaders in the region. Many in these columns may not like to hear it but Khamanei is likely to endure & the Islamic Republic is there to stay, reformed yes but not extinguished. So those who would like to kill it had better get used to the idea of it being around for a very long time.
Well, well, well, #6. With this pronouncement, we all can say, 'IRI is not the Islamic Republic it used to be -- never was.'
According to the Nikkei daily, this Japanese offer was first made last December. I, too, remember first reading about it then.
http://www.malaysianmirror.com/businessdetail/9-business/31423-japan-offers-to-enrich-uranium-for-iran
No more rubbish. The people are wounded and hurt but are not giving up. Larijani is as bad as AN and they are all sucking our blood and are raping our youth and killing our best. What kind of legitimate government does this.