Israel Video & Transcript: Barak in Washington --- Speeches and Meetings

On Friday, Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak met with his US counterpart, Robert Gates, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As Barak reiterated the need for "imminent harsh sanctions" against Iran, Clinton urged her guest to ease sanctions against Gazans. However, the two saw eye-to-eye on "security".

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzW6o-CxZk[/youtube]

Middle East Inside Line: Hamas Division, Ahmadinejad with Syria & Hezbollah, Mitchell to Resign?

Speaking to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, Barak said:

They [Hamas] are well-deterred. But still they are accumulating more, longer-range rockets through the smuggling system that goes all the way from Iran through Africa to the Gaza Strip.

And the situation is not fully stable. We still have the abducted soldier (Shalit) and that complicates some aspects of the normalization of the situation.

Then, Barak met with Clinton. The transcript of the meeting:

SECRETARY CLINTON: It’s a great personal pleasure for me to welcome back my friend and the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The defense minister and I will be discussing a number of issues. Certainly, as he knows and as we have made clear many times, the President and I are deeply committed to a comprehensive peace beginning with a re-launch of meaningful negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians as soon as possible. We believe a two-state solution is the best way to end the conflict and guarantee peace, security, and prosperity for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

We will also be discussing the situation in Gaza. The people of Gaza deserve hope for a better future, and making sure that they have that hope is in both the interests of the Israelis and the Palestinians. Minister Barak and I will discuss the need to do more in this regard while keeping in mind very real Israeli security concerns: the stranglehold that Hamas is attempting to place on life in Gaza and Gilad Shalit’s captivity by Hamas.

And we will also, I am sure, Minister, discuss Iran. We have pursued a dual-track approach to Iran. We remain committed to a diplomatic, peaceful resolution. But as the recent IAEA report makes clear, Iran is not living up to its responsibilities, and we are working with our partners in the international community to increase pressure on Iran to change course.

So, Minister Barak, it is indeed a pleasure. And we have so many serious matters to discuss together, but there is one matter that I have to raise that I was asked about in a congressional hearing yesterday, and that is trying to get nine containers of gefilte fish from the processing plant in Illinois to Israel in time for Passover. (Laughter.) So these are intractable problems; this one we might be able to solve. (Laughter.)

DEFENSE MINISTER BARAK: Thank you, Secretary Clinton. I am glad to be here. I can just tell you how much we appreciate the effort made by the Administration under the leadership of the Secretary and with Senator Mitchell at the front line to bring us and the Palestinians into substantial negotiations. We all want to see peace in our region. We understand that we’ll have to take tough decisions while not losing eye contact with our security needs and making sure that both sides will be able to live in security and peace.

We also highly appreciate the effort made by President Obama and the Secretary to make sure that sanctions against Iran will become effective and that whatever title it get, get effective, limited in time, consequential, and without losing eye contact with the possibility that in spite of all effort, it will not lead to Iran accepting the international norms. I’m looking forward for fruitful discussion of all issues, including the gefilte fish.

SECRETARY CLINTON: (Laughter.) Thank you.

Iran Analysis: Now It Gets Interesting....

URGENT UPDATE 1000 GMT: We've posted extracts from the interview in our latest updates.

0830 GMT: The Mousavi interview on Kalemeh has just come out. The takeaway line is "Spreading Awareness is the Goal of the Green Movement", but there is far more here to be read and analysed.

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Whisper it softly, because the "Western" media are still sleeping, but politics is on the move again in Iran.

Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has put out advance notice this morning that an interview with Mousavi will be coming out later today. No word on content, but this follows last weekend's assurance from a Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting that they would soon be letting the Iranian people know of their plans and Karroubi's mid-week interviews with his website and with an Italian newspaper.

Meanwhile, in Japan, Ali Larijani is making a big push from within the establishment. The signal of a deal for Japan to carry out "3rd party enrichment" on Iran's uranium is a major international development, but its internal implications are just as significant. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has been in Syria, is on-board with the Larijani (and probably Larijani-Khamenei) manoeuvre, that points to a coordinated push to move n the nuclear issue and Iran's regional position. However, if the President is out of the loop on the initiative, then Larijani is establishing his credential as the major "secular" player in Iranian politics.


Incredibly, given the attention to the nuclear issue, not many "Western" journalists have noticed the Japan development. Instead, our favourite New York Times reporter, David Sanger, takes the award for If You Don't Know, Just Make Up Some Crazy Stuff. Sanger takes on the question of why Iran moved most of its low-enriched uranium to an above-ground facility two weeks ago (simple answer: Ahmadinejad and Co. wanted a very public demonstration that they could make at least a tiny bit of 20% uranium from 3.5% stock). Since he has no information other than Washington chit-chat (whether it is based on actual intelligence, rumour, or propaganda), this is where the piece winds up:

The strangest of the speculations — but the one that is being talked about most — is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is inviting an attack to unify the country after eight months of street demonstrations that have pitted millions of Iranians against their government.

A somewhat most significant story, albeit based on more over-statement comes from the address of Ehud Barak, the Israeli Defense Minister, to the Wasihngton Institute for Near East Policy:

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak raised doubts Friday on the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear strike on his country.

I don't think the Iranians, even if they got the bomb, (will) drop it in the neighborhood. They fully understand what might follow. They are radical but not totally crazy.

Barak's signal came after meetings with US officials like Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In contrast to Sanger, the Israeli minister --- and the State Department --- are taking the rationale for an Israeli military attack on Iran off the table. The push will be for stricter economic sanctions.

Not that those sanctions are assured of an easy passage. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov put out his own signal, eagerly received by Iran's state media:

There is no evidence that Iran has made a decision to produce nuclear weapons. If we go with the sanctions, we'll not go beyond the goal of our purpose of defending the nonproliferation regime.

We don't want the nonproliferation regime to be used for ... strangling Iran, or taking some steps to deteriorate the situation [and] the living standards of people in Iran.

That's not a total rejection of more sanctions but a carefully-worded statement that any new steps will have to be measured and only pursued after much discussion.

Which brings us back to the really interesting news. While the international show goes on, it is the Iranians themselves --- be it a Mousavi or a Larijani --- who deserve watching right now.

Middle East Inside Line: Sarkozy on Palestine State, Barak in US for Iran Talks, Son of Hamas Founder Spied for Israel

Sarkozy Steps Back from Palestinian State: On Monday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas discussed the future of negotiations and a Palestinian state. Sarkozy made two points: there should be no unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state before borders are defined with Israel, and there was no time to be waste in starting negotiations since "if there are no talks....we take the risk, the international community, of a third intifada".

Abbas supported Sarkozy's line, "Negotiations first, proclamation of a state later."

Israel Pushes Washington for Harsher Sanctions on Iran: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak left for the US on Tuesday, for five days of talks with senior American officials, including US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, that will focus on Iran.

PA Security Prevents Attacks into Israel: According to Haaretz, the Palestinian Authority prevented a suicide attack about six weeks ago that a young woman (from Islamic Jihad) from Nablus had planned to carry out in Israel. Palestinian security sources said that it was not the first success to thwart such terrorist activities.
Shimon Peres Advocates Extension of Heritage Sites in West Bank: Israeli President Shimon Peres, during his meeting with Robert Serry, the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, said Wednesday that Hamas is trying to create an artificial conflict over the extension of Israeli national heritage sites in the West Bank. On Tuesday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya urging Palestinians in the West Bank to rise up against Israeli forces after the Israeli cabinet added the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron and Rachel's tomb in Bethlehem to the list of sites.

Top Hamas Official's Son Worked for Israel's Shin Bet: Haaretz says that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of leading Hamas figure Sheikh Hassan Yousef, served for over a decade as the most valuable source for Israel's Shin Bet domestic security service. During the second Intifada, Haaretz says,information Yousef gathered led to the arrests of a number of high-ranking Palestinian figures responsible for planning deadly suicide bombings.

New Jersey to Iran (and Back Again): The Activism of Mehdi Saharkhiz

I first encountered Mehdi Saharkhiz as "onlymehdi" on Twitter last June. He has been one of the most important sources of information, especially photos and videos, for EA and many others on the post-election crisis.

From Ashley Kindergan at NorthJersey.com:

From coffee shops in Ridgewood, his home in Wayne and anywhere there is cell service, a 28-year-old Iranian is broadcasting the ongoing uprising in his home country — one of a growing number of people intent on helping share with the world what happens on the streets of Tehran.

Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz

Mehdi Saharkhiz — known as "onlymehdi" on his blog, YouTube channel and Twitter feed — has been posting photographs and videos of opposition protests in Iran since the disputed Iranian presidential election last June sent thousands of protesters into the streets and triggered a brutal crackdown by the regime.

"For me, it's about getting the word out there," Saharkhiz said.


Videos and images like the ones Saharkhiz posts have become crucial to scholars, journalists and ordinary people who want to know what's going on inside an increasingly closed-off Iran.

"I think it's been critical, and we've seen what may in fact be a real birth of citizen journalism," said Gary Sick, an Iran scholar and adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. "The coverage basically after the initial demonstrations in June has been extremely sparse except for the things that people are sending out."

Indeed, much of the post-election media coverage has centered around Iran's military ambitions and the possibility of imposing more sanctions on the country. Just a few days ago, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cautioned that Iran's armed forces were becoming increasingly important in the country's decision-making. And a recent report by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency accused Iranian leaders of having worked to produce a nuclear warhead.

But the story of the opposition movement continues, recorded and shared by an online community.

For example, on Feb. 11, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was largely successful at keeping demonstrators out of a main square in Tehran when he gave a major speech celebrating the regime's anniversary.

Satellite images available through Google — not television cameras — showed a square that wasn't filled and buses that brought in supporters from outside Tehran. Saharkhiz showed photos of the buses on his site, too.

Sick noted that the Iranian regime has closed down many newspapers, especially those affiliated with the opposition. There are 47 journalists — including Mehdi's father, noted reform writer Isa Saharkhiz — imprisoned in Iran, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Getting information out of the country has also been made difficult by technological roadblocks and fears of government spying. And the fear reaches beyond Iran's borders, with Saharkhiz being careful about identifying his home and other North Jersey Iranians reluctant to even speak about communication with their home country.

The Iranian government recently blocked Gmail, Google's popular e-mail service. The regime has also frequently disrupted Internet service by slowing it to a crawl or shutting off some servers altogether, experts and Iranians here say. Sites such as Facebook and Twitter are reportedly monitored by the government to track the opposition.

"They've been trying to effect another blackout where nobody knows what's going on," said Kelly Golnoush Niknejad, a Boston-based Iranian-American journalist who started a Web site, Tehran Bureau, as an independent source of in-depth Iran coverage. "[People] have to be really sophisticated and keep on top of everything to continue to surf the Web and occasionally access a Facebook page or whatever."

Niknejad and Saharkhiz were both reluctant to talk about the specific ways in which their sources got around cyber obstacles in order to communicate. They didn't want to put sources in danger or to risk getting the avenues of communication shut down. But both said that people seem to adjust to each new obstacle.

"Seventy percent of Iran's population is under 35 years of age," Niknejad said. "The young population came of age with the Internet. … They have just had to get more sophisticated."

A 'conduit' to Iran

Mana Mostatabi, an online community organizer with the San Francisco-based United4Iran.org, said Saharkhiz's videos have been critical to spreading information, even as she hears from her own friends and relatives about increasing difficulty accessing Web sites.

"Mehdi has been such a key figure in getting that footage in and out," Mostatabi said. "He's acting as a conduit to people who are just snapping it on their cellphones."

Saharkhiz said he was not interested in Iranian politics before the 2009 elections. But then he saw footage of a crackdown on university students.

"These are just normal students going to school," he said. "They went out and voted … and now they're being massively arrested. That's when I feel it's my duty as an Iranian citizen to get their word out."

Isa Saharkhiz, Mehdi's father, worked as a journalist for many years, bringing his family to the U.S. in 1994 when he headed the New York office of IRNA, the official Iranian news agency. Isa Saharkhiz served as head of domestic publications under former President Mohammad Khatami and later published a monthly reformist newspaper that was shuttered in 2004.

In 2009, Isa Saharkhiz was active in the presidential campaign of opposition candidate Mehdi Karroubi. He was arrested eight days after the election.

Mehdi Saharkhiz, who moved to the U.S. permanently in 2001, said his family suspects that his father was tracked down on his Nokia cellphone.

Hiding Internet use

People are working on solutions to make communication safer.

Austin Heap, executive director of the Censorship Research Center, has monitored the blocks placed on the Internet by the Iranian government. The center is now waiting for a license to distribute a technology called Haystack that would allow users inside Iran to hide their Internet use.

"Haystack does two things: First, it encrypts the data and, second, it coats the data to look like normal traffic," Heap said. "It just removes the middleman's ability to filter."

That would be a boon for Iranian-Americans in North Jersey who track the news. Several people interviewed said they read multiple news sources and keep in close touch with friends and family to hunt out credible information about Iran.

Still, getting information has been more and more difficult.

Mehdi Shahpar, a West Milford resident and president of the New Jersey-based Persian Cultural & Humanitarian Association, said he watches CNN and reads American newspapers, and also checks sites written largely by Iranians, such as Iranian.com. But the best sources are the firsthand ones, he said.

"The best sources of information are those videos that are coming out from individual people that are taken by cellphone cameras and smuggled out," Shahpar said. Friends and family "used to be able to talk more, but recently they're afraid of talking on the phone because of the phone tapping and checking everything."

Shahpar said he had no problem using e-mail when he visited Iran before the elections, but his sister had enormous trouble accessing the Internet on a recent visit.

Nahid Ahkami, a Clifton resident and co-founder of the Persian Cultural & Humanitarian Association, said she reads Tehran Bureau and her husband runs his own Web site that gathers Iranian news.

Ahkami said she believes the opposition movement will ultimately succeed.

"It's going to flourish," Ahkami said. "It's not going to go away. Iranian people are very resilient people and patient people."

Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.