Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.

The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

2250 GMT: Cyber-Warfare. Looks like someone wants to stop the latest Karroubi surge. The "Sun Army" took down Karroubi's website Saham News. The Saham staff have control of the site again but a message indicates that it is "under construction".

2230 GMT:It is reported that Parisa Kakaee of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters Maziar Samei of the One Million Signatures Campaign, Bahar Tarakameh, and Nazanin Hassania have been released from prison. 26 other political prisoners are also reported to have been freed.

1830 GMT: I'm on an evening break which happily involves dinner at Birmingham's best Iranian restaurant.

1820 GMT: More Importantly (Rafsanjani Front Continued). Hashemi Rafsanjani, manoeuvring against the pressure on him, has issued another statement declaring his loyalty to the Supreme Leader:

Certain people inside Iran are fanning divisions that never existed and do not exist, and foreigners looking for propaganda feed themselves some tasty morsels....Why should we have differences? Even now we sit together every two weeks and discuss every issue in the country. These are meetings where we speak without restrictions because they are not recorded.

NEW Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
NEW Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House "Tehran Not Building Weapons"
NEW Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)
Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

1815 GMT: For What It's Worth. Some outlets are giving lots of play to the Supreme Leader's use of Hillary Clinton's "dictatorship" statement to issue his own challenges to the "West".

You can get notable extracts in that coverage --- frankly, I know this script and I can't be bothered to post any more of it.


1810 GMT: Shahabeddin Tabatabei, of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on $500,000 bail after eight months in detention.

1800 GMT: And the Karroubi Front. Following up our analysis of the renewed Karroubi challenge to Ahmadinejad and the text of the interview of Mehdi Karroubi's wife Fatemeh, some more news:

The mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi, the son of Mehdi who was beaten on 22 Bahman, has followed Fatemeh Karroubi’s letter to the Supreme Leader with one of her own: "As a mother of three martyrs of Iran-Iraq War, I ask you to listen to people’s voices and help them and punish those who hurt protesters." Like Fatemeh Karroubi, she said that her letter was not only for Ali but for any innocent person who has been jailed, beaten, or run over by cars as in the Ashura demonstrations.

The children of Hashemi Rafsanjani and the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini have visited Ali Karroubi and condemned the attack on him.

1755 GMT: On the Rafsanjani Front. Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has responded to the jibe of Fars News that he has "settled" in London. Hashemi said in a letter, "I am doing my Ph.D. abroad just like any other Iranian. I have not become the refugee of any country. And I will return to Iran when the time comes."

1750 GMT: The Challenge on the Economy. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani did not wait long to respond to the President's press conference. He made 15 points against the proposed budget and said that he had mentioned his dissatisfaction in a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

The pro-Larijani Khabar Online is also featuring the statement of an MP that, if Parliament did not have to follow procedure, it would have questioned Ahmadinejad over his illegal actions.

1740 GMT: From the blog of Shadi Sadr, via Pedestrian, referring to journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi, who has been sentenced to six years in prison:

An hour ago, I walked out of the post office and was hurriedly walking towards the metro when I saw a man on the sidewalk with two bags of fruit in his hand. I first saw the tangerines in one of the bags, and then I saw his face, as he was passing by me. He looked so much like Ahmad Zeydabadi! My heart sank. I thought: there were certainly days when Ahmad Zeydabadi too would buy fruit on his way home … those simple days of the past seem like so long ago!

I did not know Ahmad Zeydabadi personally. But I have a distinct memory of him in mind. A few years ago when the Committee of Human Rights Reporters had a press meeting to speak against the controversial family laws, Zeydabadi went to the podium, and instead of talking in difficult, muddled terms, like the politicians who spoke before him, he only spoke of his personal experience, growing up in a family of two wives. And through that, he spoke about how in a family where there are multiple wives, not only do the wives endure pain, but so do the children. His were some of the most honest words I’d ever heard, and I will never forget them. The day after, when I went through the news, no matter how much I looked, I did not see any of Zeydabadi’s words anywhere. Even those friends of mine who were filming the meeting, had not thought anything of Zeydabadi’s speech and had not filmed it! That’s when I realized how much our own culture is still resistant to men who want to break stereotypes.

I can write about Zeydabadi, because I did not know him personally. But I can’t write of my own friends who are in prison, because I’m afraid of what their interrogators will do. I’m afraid that they might put my friends under even more pressure. I can only say this: it has been a good while now that I know that every morning when I wake up and turn on the computer and read the news, a long list of my friends, acquaintances, colleagues, someone I used to know, will be in the list of new prisoners. Every day, familiar names are added behind the walls of Evin Prison, and everyday I ask myself: where did they go, those simple days? …

1735 GMT: Economics 101. Iran's Deputy Energy Minister, Mohammad Behzad, says 20 power plants will be privatised in the first half of the next Iranian year, ending 20 September.

Q. Given the problems in Iran's electricity industry, with the Government owing millions and up to 900,000 workers facing layoffs, who would want to purchase a power plant?

A. Maybe an up-and-coming firm with absolutely no connection whatsoever with the Islamic Revolution GuardsCorps?

1640 GMT: Changing the Numbers. EA readers may have noted our scepticism over some of the President's economic claims in his Tuesday press conference. Jahan-e San'at shares the view, criticising Ahmaninejad for citing data from 2007/8 as the figures for 2008/9.

1635 GMT: The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has thanked all those who participated in the 22 Bahman rally despite threats and intimidations, and it has condemned "hard-line" propaganda for claiming that all those who participated in the rally were supporting "the coup government".

1630 GMT: Tabriz Lockdown? The speech of reformist member of Parliament Mohsen Armin, scheduled for today, has been cancelled. The cancellation follows the claimed halt of an appearance by Mir Hossein Mousavi in the same city on 22 Bahman.

1625 GMT: Iran v. Coma Countries. Quote of the day goes to Brigadier-General Seyyed Massoud Jazayeri, "The West has gone into a coma after mounting a propaganda campaign to sway the public opinion over Iran's nuclear issue."

1600 GMT: Labour Pessimism. Back from a break to find an analysis by two Iran-based journalists, "Opposition Fails to Organize Strikes". Javoo Akbar and Nivoo Sarvi (pseudonyms) conclude:

The absence of an independent workers’ union and the lack of interaction between their different associations across the country has resulted in low levels of political consciousness. That and the fact that so many of the weapons are in the hands of the authorities, means there is no prospect of either the opposition or organised labour initiating widespread workers’ strikes to back Mousavi or any other opposition figure.

1320 GMT: Putting Hashemi in His Box (cont.). More on yesterday's update about renewed attacks against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani ahead of next week's meeting of the Assembly of Experts, which Rafsanjani chairs.

Kalameh reports that Hamzeh Karami, manager of the Jomhouriyat website, which was active during the elections, has been sentenced to 16 years in prison and payment of six billion tooman (just over $6 million).

The link to Rafsanjani? In the Tehran trials last August, Karami gave a high-profile "confession" that implicated Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son, in corruption and diversion of election funds to undermine Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

1225 GMT: How that "Regime Change" Thing Works. First, a couple of US Congressmen, John Cronyn and Sam Brownback, introduce an "Iran Democratic Transition Act" committing the US Government "to fully and publicly support efforts of the Iranian people to oppose and remove the current regime and transition to a freely elected, open, and democratic government in Iran".

Then Press TV gets hold of the bill, which is more a bit of political posing than likely legislation, to drive home the "foreigners" v. "good Iranian nation" theme:

Two Republican senators have once again introduced a draft bill in the US Congress seeking full support for the Iranian opposition and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic government in Iran. Senators John Cornyn and Sam Brownback introduced the so-called “Iran Democratic Transition Act” bill on February 11, coinciding with the anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, in which unprecedented tens of millions of Iranians poured into the streets to rally and celebrate the 31st anniversary.

An 'extraordinarily' high number of people marched across different cities in the country, throwing their lot with a revolution which toppled a US-backed monarchy in Iran.

The bill repeats the old rhetoric about human rights violations in Iran, its nuclear energy program, and alleged support for terrorism, fully advocating a “regime change” in the country.

1215 GMT: The Clinton Charade. The theatre continues today, with the Supreme Leader using Hillary Clinton's "dictatorship" remark to strike a pose. Khamenei accused her of spreading "lies" and said, "Those who have turned the Persian Gulf into an arms depot in order to milk regional countries for money have now dispatched their official to go around the Persian Gulf and spread lies against Iran."

1115 GMT: For What It's Worth. CNN has posted the video of its interview with Iran's top "human rights" official, Mohammad Javad Larijani: "Iran is the greatest, the only democracy in the Middle East."

1055 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has resumed teaching at Tarbiat Modarres University. Beheshti was recently released after several weeks in detention.

1030 GMT: A Buffet of Analyses. We've got Sharmine Narwani taking apart the US Government's conflicting signals on Iran's nuclear programmes, an analysis of Ahmadinejad's stumble and the "Karroubi wave", and the English text of Fatemeh Karroubi's interview with Rooz Online.

0855 GMT: More on the Economic Front. Ali Asghar Yousef-Nejad, a member of the Parliament's Industries Commission, has declared that budget details are unclear and asserted that the Minister of Economy has projected only 3% growth, instead of the 8% envisaged in the budget. (Yesterday the President simply made up a figure for Iran's 2009/10 growth.)

0825 GMT: Not That Close to the US. More fencing on the nuclear issue and "America": Haghighat News, linked to the President, has denied that Ahmadinejad's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai met with US officials in Qatar. His trip, which coincided with the stay of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her delegation, "was simply aimed to observe the condition of Iranians residing in the Persian Gulf Arabian country".

0815 GMT: In Rah-e-Sabz, Farid Modaresi offers a lengthy analysis on the relationship between Qom's clerics and the Government. Amidst its interesting insights is a meeting between Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani and the head of Bonyade Shahid, the charitable trust for war veterans and their families. Nouri-Hamedani requested that this message be passed the President: "If you want to stay in power, eliminate problems like high prices (from which 70% of the population suffers), unemployment, discrimination. Eliminate also housing problems."

0750 GMT: Want to See an EA Analysis in Action? Here's a big clue pointing both to the economic Achilles' heel of the Ahmadinejad Government (see 0645 GMT) and the hope that it will just go away. Press TV headlines its summary of the President's press conference, "Ahmadinejad says Iran to install advanced centrifuges."

Number of paragraphs devoted to the nuclear issue? 11
Number of words devoted to the economic questions that dominated the conference? 0

0745 GMT: Evaluating the Movement. Ali Farhadzadeh offers a lengthy critique of the origins and development of the post-election opposition:

No one can deny the role of a leader in bringing protesters together in the freedom movements of modern history, such as the role Gandhi, Mandela and Martin Luther King played in the progress and triumph of the movements of India, South Africa and African Americans in the United States. However, in the Green Movement the lack of leadership is somehow compensated by virtual social networks.

0735 GMT: American Postures. Another shot at Tehran from a US official, although this may be just a specific statement from the American military linked to Iraq's internal development rather than part of a wider get-tough strategy:

The top American commander in Iraq says the U.S. has "direct intelligence" that two senior Iraqi officials in charge of keeping Saddam Hussein loyalists out of the Baghdad government have ties to Iran. Gen. Raymond Odierno says Ali al-Lami and Ahmed Chalabi "are clearly influenced by Iran" and have attended senior-level meetings with members of the hardline Shiite regime there.

0730 GMT: We've posted Tricia Sutherland's human rights special this morning, summarising developments between 7 and 14 February.

0725 GMT: Closing Iran's Movies. The first time EA has taken a story from Hollywood's newspaper, Variety:

Iranian helmer Jafar Panahi has been denied permission by local authorities to travel to Berlin.
Panahi, whose "Offside" was awarded the fest's jury grand prize in 2006, was scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on Iranian cinema during the fest's World Cinema Fund Day today.

The Berlinale sent out a press release Tuesday announcing that Panahi would not be attending the fest, where he was an honorary guest.

"We are surprised and deeply regret that a director who has won so many international prizes has been denied the possibility to take part in our anniversary festival and to speak about his cinematic visions," said fest director Dieter Kosslick.

Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; "Karroubi Wave" Surges

A curious and possibly important Tuesday. It did not promise drama at the start of the day: the Iran stories were mainly of significant but behind-the-headlines sparring on the economic front, while the Western press were distracted by the chest-puffing of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki over "dictatorship" and the nuclear issue.

But then came a series of developments, punctuated by two events: the press conference of the President and the "Karroubi wave".

Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

EA had the chance to live-blog the Ahmadinejad 2-hour show and it proved a revelation. The President was trying to use this occasion to re-assert his authority after his claimed success of "tens of millions" at the pro-Government 22 Bahman rally, putting out his double line on uranium enrichment --- "we can be self-sufficient, but we will also negotiate" --- plus standard rhetoric of Iran's strength and Western weakness.



But the President's plan unravelled as he was challenged time and again on his economic plans --- because of the opposition within the establishment to the budget and subsidy proposals, not to mention concern over the state of Iran's economy, there is plenty of space for journalists to press the topic. And there were even queries over the realities of 22 Bahman and the post-election detentions. (Credit to the brave reporters who brought up the issue. Take note: pro-regime mouthpieces might deny there is any problem, but almost all Iranian journalists will do their jobs with the knowledge that colleagues are in jail and sometimes serving lengthy sentences.)

Then, only five days after 22 Bahman, there was the clearest sign that this conflict isn't over. A new "Karroubi wave" of opposition has surged. Mehdi Karroubi signalled this weekend that he would soon be meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi to discuss next steps, but in one sense they are already occurring.

While the cleric stands back for the moment, his wife Fatemeh and son Hossein --- using the detention and beating of Karroubi's younger son Ali but going far beyond it --- have pushed the core issues of the detentions, abuses, and injustices now undermining the values and stability of the Islamic Republic. Most importantly, the Karroubis are now doing so in a direct challenge to the Supreme Leader: none of them bother to mention Ahmadinejad and they explicitly dismiss Iran's judiciary as impotent.

Of course, there is a long way to go with this strategy. One will have to watch for the reaction of other Green factions to the challenge, and it is not clear if the high profile given to Karroubi outside Iran is matched inside the country. That said, it has been Karroubi's interventions --- his open letter at the end of July first raising the detainee abuse issue, his appearances at rallies such as Qods Day and at public events such as the Tehran Fair, his recent declaration on "Mr Khamenei" and a "selected rather than elected" President --- that have contributed to surges in protest.

The regime may have thought they had finally blunted Karroubi when they turned him back on 22 Bahman, tear-gassing his entourage and detaining and beating his son. In fact, the statements of Fatemeh and Hossein Karroubi point to the opposite effect. The attack on Ali Karroubi --- whether it was carried out by security forces or "rogue" units, whether it was sanctioned by the Supreme Leader or occurred without his knowledge --- has offered a new platform for the wider campaign. And this time, the Karroubis are not bothering with the President or his officials; they are going straight to the top with the presentation to Ayatollah Khamenei of the issues.

Neither of these developments is likely to see the light of day in Western media coverage. CNN, for example, cannot see beyond "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" and "Iran official (Mohammad Javad Larijani): Clinton 'inconsistent'". The New York Times misses the stories entirely, featuring instead yet another weak analysis of Washington's policy on Iran.

But I think shrewd Iran observers would be wise to keep eyes on the economic situation and the resurgence of a Karroubi-supported opposition. EA is not in the habit of making predictions, but if we're right about yesterday, this conflict ain't over.

Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi "My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights"

The translation of the interview of Mehdi Karroubi's wife Fatemeh with Rooz Online, days after the beating of her son Ali on 22 Bahman:

Mrs. Karroubi, except for publishing two letters, you have remained silent and refrained from making comments regarding the 22nd of Khordad [the Presidential election of 12 June] and the events that ensued. Is there a particular reason for this silence?

Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

You are very familiar with my mentality and are fully aware of my positions from the days when you were a reporter covering the 5th parliament, and we were in the minority. I am an individual who believes in the ideals of the Imam and the revolution and I have always made great efforts to ensure that my behaviour and words do not harm the system/regime or revolution in any way what so ever. I did this before the revolution, when we lived a very difficult life for 15 years, spending most of our time behind prison doors, and also after the revolution, when we saw it our religious and moral duty to work effortlessly as part of the executive branch. Unfortunately, because of the recent, bitter events I have preferred to speak less.


Is this silence due to the fact that you wish to create a more stable and secure environment so that in the event that your children and Mr. Karroubi are arrested you at least remain free to pursue their freedom? In other words, has it been a form of division of labor

Absolutely not. You have known me for longer than just two days and you are completely familiar with my mindset from the days of the 5th parliament. Even the letter [to the Supreme Leader] I published three days ago is not just for my own child, but for all the children who are spending time behind prison doors.

You referred to your efforts with regards to the ideals of the Imam and the revolution both before and after the revolution, however, today, your husband is referred to by the current regime as one of the leaders of the opposition. They claim that Mr. Karroubi is connected to Israel and the United States and takes his orders from them. How does it make you feel when you have given your life to the revolution and you are now faced with such issues?

These comments and claims are so meaningless and empty that I will neither respond to them nor put any emphasis on them. The gentlemen who take part in these meaningless discussions, will have to respond to God, and realize that vilification and scorning without presenting any evidence what so ever, is meaningless. I am certain that Mr. Karroubi believes in the ideals of the revolution and as such I pay no attention to these empty claims. These claims have no effect on our pursuit of people’s rights and the ideals of the revolution. My family will continue to stand for the people’s rights and the ideals of the revolution and we will not compromise. I know my husband well. I also know my children. If they have any evidence of these socalled claims, I ask that they put them forward.

Prior to publishing this letter, you spoke of the lack of security with regards to your family and stated that you will hold the regime responsible for anything that happens to them. What led you to write such a letter and do you still feel the same level of fear for your family?

The circumstances at the time were very dire and I wanted to release a statement so that if something were to happen to me or my family, they would not come back later and say that they need to hold meetings and investigate the matter, etc. Everything was very clear. Mr. [Hossein] Mozafar, the former Minister of Education, had commented on the IRIB’s Channel 2 that we leave the heads of the opposition in the hands of the people and Mr. [Alaeddin] Boroujerdi, a member of the Parliament had made similar remarks that had been published in the newspapers. These comments insinuated that if something were to happen to us it was because the people had killed us. As such, I was forced to publish a clear statement and warn everyone so the people of Iran would be aware. Today, our security circumstances are slightly better. We are not under as much pressure and feel less threatened.

Is it fair to say that the state of your security and welfare has shifted? One of your sons was summoned, while the other based on the letter published by yourself was threatened to be raped. Not to mention, Mr. Karroubi is also constantly threatened by the aggressive behavior of the security forces. In its essence, your second letter provides an insight into the lack of security experienced by your family. Is that true?

I wrote the letter as a mother and only for one reason because I am extremely worried about the children of our nation and the mothers whose children have been arrested and imprisoned. I wrote this letter with the hope to prevent these arrests. The night my son came back home, I was intensely disturbed by the events that occurred and could not believe how easy it was for them to tell Ali how lucky he was and that if he had stayed a few more hours, his dead body would have been delivered to his family!

Tehran’s prosecutor, however, denied Ali’s arrest yesterday and said that after much investigation it has been concluded that he was not arrested by any government body, requesting that Ali provide proof of his arrest.

I am very sorry to hear that Tehran’s prosecutor has said such a thing, providing his opinion so hastily and without a thorough investigation into the matter. However, the prosecutor is correct when he states that Ali was arrested on the 22nd Bahman by police forces and his mobile phone is with them as we speak. They actually called this afternoon and asked that Ali come by to pick up his mobile. In addition to releasing Ali from the police station late in the evening, while he was there they made him sign a commitment letter that he would not give any interviews regarding this manner upon his release. I must say that in this regard, the prosecutor is completely right, as the judiciary never issued an official warrant for Ali’s arrest rather, they arrested Ali on the night when we were celebrating our most important national victory. You are aware of the rest of the issues related to this matter as I have spoken at length about them in my letter.

Mrs. Karroubi, what do you think is the solution is for the current crisis our country is facing, and in your opinion what should be done to resolve it?

I am hopeful that the leaders of our country, our spiritual leader and those in charge of the government have the foresight to reflect upon their tactics and ways and that they will have a dialogue and create an exchange with those sympathetic to the revolution who have worked so hard for so many years on behalf of the revolution and the country, so that they can find a solution to end this current situation.

But Mr. Karroubi has said that neither the leaders of the Green movement, nor the current regime are ready to negotiate and compromise.

We must see what is meant by negotiation and compromise and whether this negotiation benefits the people or not. In my opinion, the interests of our country and our people’s rights are very important. This discussion is by no means a personal one, and no matter what we do, we must put the country’s interests and the people’s rights first and foremost and move forward only with these two things in mind.

I’m going to ask you directly, Mrs. Karroubi, is there a possibility of potential negotiation by Mr. Karroubi, with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he would compromise and accept Mr. Ahmadinejad as the president of Iran?

This would not be possible in any way, shape or form. We have been living together for 47 years and I know him very well. I know that this would be impossible and would never happen. An important part of the current crisis and the country’s problems are a direct result of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s behavior, deeds and mismanagement. Many of our economic and national security challenges are also a direct result of how he has managed the country. Our constitution was designed to address exactly these type of issues and we only ask that the constitution be followed, because if it is, we have one of the most advanced constitutions in the world.

Do you mean to say that you can imagine the impeachment of Ahmadinejad by the parliament?

Yes, our constitution takes into consideration such a possibility and I am hopeful that if our advanced constitutional laws are utilized to their fullest capacity that this issue will be addressed.

Mrs. Karroubi, in the past eight months we have witnessed the arrests of may newspaper reporters and political activists. Can you please let us know if these arrests will resolve any of the issues facing the Islamic Republic?

These arrests will never benefit the Islamic Republic. All those arrested care deeply about their country. If they didn’t care, they would have left the country. Despite all the limitations they have decided to remain in Iran. Our constitution supports the freedom of speech and none of these individuals have said or wanted anything that is against our constitution. Arresting people will not solve any problems. The challenges facing our society and country will not be resolved by arresting individuals. If anything we must resolve these problems judiciously and with foresight. I am very saddened, particularly when female journalists and political activists are arrested and I hope that they will all be released as soon as possible. I recall when I was a member of The Committee for the Freedom of Press that we always sought to minimize the number of women arrested and sent to prison. At the time the publications had more female editors than newspapers did.

Mrs. Karroubi, as my last question I would like to ask you to what degree and how far are you and your family willing to stand up for the people’s rights? Do the pressures on your children and Mr. Karroubi not influence this matter?

I am not a newcomer to politics and these difficulties are not new to me. I was 15 years old when I entered Mr. Karroubi’s house. It was the start of our struggles for the Imam and until this day we have lived through many trials and tribulations. In the previous regime, we faced the constant stress and concerns of arrests by the Savak [secret police]. Now that the children have grown up, because of the recent events I have once again been under a lot of stress. But my worries and stress are not for my husband and children but for my country, my people and the revolution. Some people might think that I say these things because I am being interviewed, but that is not true. I worry for the security of our people. If our people live in a secure environment, my family and I will have security too. I would like to reiterate that the more pressure they exert on us, the more determined me and my family will be.

Iran: Human Rights Round-up (7-14 February 2010)

Ali Karroubi

The week of 22 Bahman saw many arrests and further human rights violations in Iran. The highest profile incident involved the son of Mehdi Karroubi. Ali Karroubi was arrested last Thursday as he tried to provide security for his father. (Mehdi Karroubi’s usual security guard had failed to report earlier --- apparently they had been detained.) Ali was arrested and taken, with others, to the Amiral Momenin Mosque where he was beaten along with other detainees. Fatemeh Karroubi, Ali’s mother, published an open letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appealing for an end to such abuses. In her letter, and according to other reports, Ali was recognized as guards were registering the detainees by name. Once the agents got the order from higher officials, he was separated from other detainees, beaten repeatedly and threatened with rape. He was later released. (See separate entry for later initiatives by Fatemeh Karroubi and Ali's brother Hossein.)

The Week in Brief



Sunday 7 February



(News round-up from Pedestrian):

• Hamid Yahyavi, (University of Tehran student arrested on 1 February), was released on February 7th.


• Ali Gholitabar & Morteza Saremi (members of the Mojahedin), who were arrested the day after Ashura (December 26th), released on bail.


• Maryam Ghanbari (lawyer and women’s rights activist) arrested at her home on 1 February.


• Akbar Montajebi (journalist) arrested 7 February. (Literary critic for ISNA) arrested.


• Ehsan Mehrabi (reporter for  Farhikhtegan, arrested.


• Somayeh Momeni (reporter for Nasim Bidari, former ISNA reporter and a member of the 1 Million Signatures Campaign arrested.


• Ali Kolayi (member of Human Rights Watch) arrested. [NB: As Mr Kolayi is completing his military service his case has been handed to a military court; this is his third arrest.]


• On 5 February 2010 Ebrahim Yazdi was transferred to Atiyeh hospital by prison official at Evin. Despite opposition from his doctors, officials took him back to prison on the evening of 6 February.

• Naemeh Doostdar, (poet, writer, reporter and blogger) arrested and transferred to Evin Prison.


• Unconfirmed reports suggest at least 14 more students of Amir Kabir University, Tehran were arrested following continuing protests.

Monday 8 February

• A group of Iranian journalists wrote an open letter to foreign reporters invited by Iran’s government to attend and provide media coverage on the anniversary the Islamic Revolution on 11 February:  “…expose their shows, and listen to the true calls of the Iranian people. And on this historic trip relay and report the innocence of the Iranian people. This is the expectation that your suffering fellow journalists have of you.”


• According to HRANA at least five members of the “mourning mothers” were arrested.


• Shirko Moarefi is one of 21 Kurdish political prisoners currently awaiting execution in Iran. His mother, Roghiyeh Ebn-Abass told RAHANA that she sees no difference between her son and other political prisoners who are awaiting execution: “Our children belong to the young generation of this land, and they are its most valuable asset. Don’t execute them.”


• The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran stronglycondemned the prosecution of student activist, Mohammad Amin Valian, under the charge of Moharebeh.


• Mirazee Saeedeh, children’s rights activist, arrested and taken to unknown location, as she was helping a group of street kids on 27 January. News of Mirazee’s arrest came out in the same report as news of the arrest of Nazari Babak, another children’s rights activist, arrested 8 February and also taken to an unknown location.


• On her release from prison Kaveh Ahangar sent an urgent message warning Iranians that her interrogators had had all her text messaging and phone call information.


• Siamack Nadali (former head of the Islamic Students Association at Lorestan University) arrested. 

Tuesday 9 February

• 18 mothers of imprisoned activists issued a statement protesting the continued ill-treatment of their children.


• Dr. Mohammad Maleki (arrested in August 2009) was recently transferred to ward 7 of Evin Prison as a result of his deteriorating health condition.


• Mansour Osanlou was taken into solitary confinement in the "dog-cell section" of Evin on 21 February.


• Reporters without Borders published a report deploring the fact that more than 65 journalists are now detained in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It’s report listed nine journalists arrested between 6-8 February: Akbar Montajabi (of Etemad-e Mell), Ahmad Jalali Farahani (latterly of Meher News agency),  Mahsa JaziniIran), (Isfahan-based daily Somayeh Momeni (Nasim Bidary), Zeynab Kazem-Khah, (ISNA news agency), Amir Sadeghi (a photographer with Farhangh Ashti), Hassan Zohouri (Mirass Farhanghi news agency), Ehsan Mehrabi (Farhikhteghan) and Vahid Pourostad (Farhikhteghan).


• Nine people recently tried in the Revolutionary Court for their roles in the Ashura protests received their sentences. One person was sentenced to execution; eight others received prison sentences – all nine had been charged with mohareb.


• Shabnam and Farzad Madadzadeh (arrested in February 2009) charged with mohareb and sentenced to five years in prison.


• Siamak Nadali (former secretary of the Islamic Student Association in the University of Lorestan) arrested. 


• Lawyer Forough Mirzaei and Mahin Fahimi, a member of “Mothers for Peace, released. 


• Alireza Beheshti (Adviser to Mir Houssein Mousavi) released.


• Ali Malihi, (journalist with Etemad-e) arrested.


• 69-year old reformist politician Behzad Nabavi sentenced to five years in prison.


• Mostafa Tajzadeh (member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mujahidin of the Islamic Revolution Organisation) chose not to defend himself in his second “show trial” in Tehran.


• Feyzollah Arabsorkhi (member of the MKO) appeared in Judge Salvati’s court where bail was set at one Billion Toman [$1 Million].


• HRANA reported that at least eight political and social activists were arrested in Tabriz; three were released but five were being held for further questioning. List: Dr. Ghafar Farzadi (Member of Freedom Movement), Oroojali Mohammadi (Former governor of Tabriz and member of the [Islamic reformist] Participation Front), Dr. Asef Hajizadeh (member of the office of the Consolidation of Unity), Dr. Jalil Yaghoubzadeh (reformist), Dr. Sadrinia- (national and religion activist), Vahid Sheikhbeigloo (reformist), Abbas Pourazhari (activist) and Azizi- (activist). Of these, Mr. Azizi, Dr. Hajizadeh, and Dr. Yaghoubzadeh were released after a few hours.

Wednesday 10 February

• Mohammad Reza Tajik released.


• Safoura Tofangchi and her husband Abolhassan Darolshafayi arrested, after being summoned by the Ministry of Intelligence. Their two daughters, Banafsheh and Jamileh, were also reportedly arrested a few days earlier.


• Mehri Nabavi (wife of Ali) and Seyyed Zohour Nabavi arrested in separate towns. They were transferred to solitary confinement in the prison of the Ministry of Intelligence.


• Tehran Prosecutor finally told the families of Alireza Firoozi and Sourena Hashemi that both students held at Tehran’s Evin Prison. 


• Ali Vakili Rad, the man convicted of the assassination of former Iranian PM Shahpour Baktia outside Paris in 1991, may be freed from a Paris prison and deported to Iran, according to his lawyer. 


• Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, Medhi Karroubi’s son, said that several former Revolutionary Guards and others who had volunteered to protect his father on 22 Bahman had been “called for questioning and had not returned home”. He told Radio Farda that they had: “probably been arrested”. 

Thursday 11 February

• Zahra Rahnavard, a leading protest leader and wife of opposition leader Mir Houssein Mousavi, was “attacked and badly beaten” by plain-clothed and security forces whilst making her way to the 22 Bahman rally at Sadeqiyeh Square, Tehran.


• Ali Karroubi (son of Mehdi Karroubi) was arrested, tortured and abused according to many reports. On 14 February his mother, Fatemeh Karroubi, published an open letter to the Supreme Leader. This detailed what had happened to her son and called for an end to such abuses.  


• In a 30 second phone call, Shiva Nazar Ahari told her family about her transfer to: “a cage-like solitary cell”.

Friday 12 February

• Amnesty International sent a report to the UN in advance of its review of human rights on Monday 15 February pointing out how distorted the Regime’s view of its human rights record was: “"The Iranian authorities seem either to have lost touch with reality or are unwilling to acknowledge it". 


• Three Iranian unions also wrote to the UN for its (then) forthcoming review: "we are struggling in a hell made of poverty".


• Amin Nazari (head of the human rights unit of the Advar Tahkim Vahdat Organization) arrested in Tehran on his way to a hospital to undergo spinal cord surgery.


• Reza Pahlavi, (son of the late Shah of Iran) said the international community "must step up its support for Iran's opposition movement and stop focusing on the country's nuclear program."


• Salman Sima and Sasan Aghayi transferred from section 7 of Evin Prison to the infamous ward 350.


• Human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr addressed the United Nations: “In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated…during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists.”

Saturday 13 February

• Political prisoners in Gohardasht prison published a statement about the Regime’s actions, particularly on 22 Bahman: “Not only did they fill every step of the streets with security and plainclothes forces, but they did not spare us, the prisoners, either….”


• Ahmad Karimi, (arrested more than a month before Iran's June 2009 election) sentenced to execution after being included in a mass trial for detainees linked to the post-election protests.

Sunday 14 February

• The blogger and rights activist, Ali Kalayi, released after posting $50,000 bail. Kalayi was arrested on 7 February.


• Alireza Firoozi and Sourena Hashemi remain in solitary confinement , despite the Prosecutor’s order for their transfer to the public ward in Tehran’s Evin Prison.  [NB: The Tehran Prosecutor only admitted to their families that the students were detained at Evin on 10 February.]


• A comprehensive list of prisoners published. At present this is only available in Persian but it’s possible a translation will become available in the coming week. 


• Writer Alireza Saghafi released. 

*Hat-tip to friends, too many to mention, and to Pedestrian, Persian2English, Amnesty International, RAHANA (Reporters and Human Rights Activists in Iran), ICHRR (Iran Committee of Human Rights Reporters) and all other human rights organisations mentioned above and omitted in error!