Wednesday
Feb172010
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; "Karroubi Wave" Surges
Wednesday, February 17, 2010 at 10:26
A 
curious and possibly important Tuesday. It did not promise drama at the start of the day: the Iran stories were mainly of significant but behind-the-headlines sparring on the economic front, while the Western press were distracted by the chest-puffing of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki over "dictatorship" and the nuclear issue.
But then came a series of developments, punctuated by two events: the press conference of the President and the "Karroubi wave".
EA had the chance to live-blog the Ahmadinejad 2-hour show and it proved a revelation. The President was trying to use this occasion to re-assert his authority after his claimed success of "tens of millions" at the pro-Government 22 Bahman rally, putting out his double line on uranium enrichment --- "we can be self-sufficient, but we will also negotiate" --- plus standard rhetoric of Iran's strength and Western weakness.
But the President's plan unravelled as he was challenged time and again on his economic plans --- because of the opposition within the establishment to the budget and subsidy proposals, not to mention concern over the state of Iran's economy, there is plenty of space for journalists to press the topic. And there were even queries over the realities of 22 Bahman and the post-election detentions. (Credit to the brave reporters who brought up the issue. Take note: pro-regime mouthpieces might deny there is any problem, but almost all Iranian journalists will do their jobs with the knowledge that colleagues are in jail and sometimes serving lengthy sentences.)
Then, only five days after 22 Bahman, there was the clearest sign that this conflict isn't over. A new "Karroubi wave" of opposition has surged. Mehdi Karroubi signalled this weekend that he would soon be meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi to discuss next steps, but in one sense they are already occurring.
While the cleric stands back for the moment, his wife Fatemeh and son Hossein --- using the detention and beating of Karroubi's younger son Ali but going far beyond it --- have pushed the core issues of the detentions, abuses, and injustices now undermining the values and stability of the Islamic Republic. Most importantly, the Karroubis are now doing so in a direct challenge to the Supreme Leader: none of them bother to mention Ahmadinejad and they explicitly dismiss Iran's judiciary as impotent.
Of course, there is a long way to go with this strategy. One will have to watch for the reaction of other Green factions to the challenge, and it is not clear if the high profile given to Karroubi outside Iran is matched inside the country. That said, it has been Karroubi's interventions --- his open letter at the end of July first raising the detainee abuse issue, his appearances at rallies such as Qods Day and at public events such as the Tehran Fair, his recent declaration on "Mr Khamenei" and a "selected rather than elected" President --- that have contributed to surges in protest.
The regime may have thought they had finally blunted Karroubi when they turned him back on 22 Bahman, tear-gassing his entourage and detaining and beating his son. In fact, the statements of Fatemeh and Hossein Karroubi point to the opposite effect. The attack on Ali Karroubi --- whether it was carried out by security forces or "rogue" units, whether it was sanctioned by the Supreme Leader or occurred without his knowledge --- has offered a new platform for the wider campaign. And this time, the Karroubis are not bothering with the President or his officials; they are going straight to the top with the presentation to Ayatollah Khamenei of the issues.
Neither of these developments is likely to see the light of day in Western media coverage. CNN, for example, cannot see beyond "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" and "Iran official (Mohammad Javad Larijani): Clinton 'inconsistent'". The New York Times misses the stories entirely, featuring instead yet another weak analysis of Washington's policy on Iran.
But I think shrewd Iran observers would be wise to keep eyes on the economic situation and the resurgence of a Karroubi-supported opposition. EA is not in the habit of making predictions, but if we're right about yesterday, this conflict ain't over.
curious and possibly important Tuesday. It did not promise drama at the start of the day: the Iran stories were mainly of significant but behind-the-headlines sparring on the economic front, while the Western press were distracted by the chest-puffing of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki over "dictatorship" and the nuclear issue.But then came a series of developments, punctuated by two events: the press conference of the President and the "Karroubi wave".
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?
EA had the chance to live-blog the Ahmadinejad 2-hour show and it proved a revelation. The President was trying to use this occasion to re-assert his authority after his claimed success of "tens of millions" at the pro-Government 22 Bahman rally, putting out his double line on uranium enrichment --- "we can be self-sufficient, but we will also negotiate" --- plus standard rhetoric of Iran's strength and Western weakness.
But the President's plan unravelled as he was challenged time and again on his economic plans --- because of the opposition within the establishment to the budget and subsidy proposals, not to mention concern over the state of Iran's economy, there is plenty of space for journalists to press the topic. And there were even queries over the realities of 22 Bahman and the post-election detentions. (Credit to the brave reporters who brought up the issue. Take note: pro-regime mouthpieces might deny there is any problem, but almost all Iranian journalists will do their jobs with the knowledge that colleagues are in jail and sometimes serving lengthy sentences.)
Then, only five days after 22 Bahman, there was the clearest sign that this conflict isn't over. A new "Karroubi wave" of opposition has surged. Mehdi Karroubi signalled this weekend that he would soon be meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi to discuss next steps, but in one sense they are already occurring.
While the cleric stands back for the moment, his wife Fatemeh and son Hossein --- using the detention and beating of Karroubi's younger son Ali but going far beyond it --- have pushed the core issues of the detentions, abuses, and injustices now undermining the values and stability of the Islamic Republic. Most importantly, the Karroubis are now doing so in a direct challenge to the Supreme Leader: none of them bother to mention Ahmadinejad and they explicitly dismiss Iran's judiciary as impotent.
Of course, there is a long way to go with this strategy. One will have to watch for the reaction of other Green factions to the challenge, and it is not clear if the high profile given to Karroubi outside Iran is matched inside the country. That said, it has been Karroubi's interventions --- his open letter at the end of July first raising the detainee abuse issue, his appearances at rallies such as Qods Day and at public events such as the Tehran Fair, his recent declaration on "Mr Khamenei" and a "selected rather than elected" President --- that have contributed to surges in protest.
The regime may have thought they had finally blunted Karroubi when they turned him back on 22 Bahman, tear-gassing his entourage and detaining and beating his son. In fact, the statements of Fatemeh and Hossein Karroubi point to the opposite effect. The attack on Ali Karroubi --- whether it was carried out by security forces or "rogue" units, whether it was sanctioned by the Supreme Leader or occurred without his knowledge --- has offered a new platform for the wider campaign. And this time, the Karroubis are not bothering with the President or his officials; they are going straight to the top with the presentation to Ayatollah Khamenei of the issues.
Neither of these developments is likely to see the light of day in Western media coverage. CNN, for example, cannot see beyond "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" and "Iran official (Mohammad Javad Larijani): Clinton 'inconsistent'". The New York Times misses the stories entirely, featuring instead yet another weak analysis of Washington's policy on Iran.
But I think shrewd Iran observers would be wise to keep eyes on the economic situation and the resurgence of a Karroubi-supported opposition. EA is not in the habit of making predictions, but if we're right about yesterday, this conflict ain't over.
Reader Comments (10)
Thanks for a good piece of information and analysis. Of course it ain't over.
"Neither of these developments is likely to see the light of day in Western media "
well what would be the point? nothing but more accusations from the Iran govt. that the Green movement is driven by foreign elements.
Mousavi has been out of the picture for a long time, any idea about his whereabouts?
RE "I think shrewd Iran observers would be wise to keep eyes on the economic situation and the resurgence of a Karroubi-supported opposition. EA is not in the habit of making predictions, but if we’re right about yesterday, this conflict ain’t over."
Farideh Farhi, an Iranian scholar at the University of Hawaii, actually made this prediction (albeit sans Karroubi per se) as early as 11 February on Chalie Rose after the events of 22 Bahman day had already played out in Tehran.
++++++++++++++++++++
CHARLIE ROSE: Farideh, when you look at where Ahmadinejad is, how
solid is his support, and what is his relationship with the Supreme Leader
today? And who is depending on whom?
FARIDEH FARHI: OK. It depends on what you mean by "solid." I mean,
if you’re asking a question about whether or not Ahmadinejad will be kicked
out of the Iranian political system, [but if] solid means him not being
criticized and being in control of the situation, I would say that actually
he is not very solid. He is very much criticized.
And, in fact, if there is a quieting of the streets, what you will see
in the next few months are going to be very, very fierce fights over the
economic direction of the country as well as in some ways the foreign
policy of the country.
I mean, it’s important to understand that it’s almost only about a
month before the Iranian new year, fiscal new year, and Iran does not have
a budget. And it’s because Mr. Ahmadinejad was very late in introducing
the budget. There’s going to be a huge fight in the way that he is going
to approach the budget.
He is also expected to begin a process of reforming the subsidy
system, and everybody is worried about the illegal ways that he is going to
go about doing that and not listen to the mandates of the parliament.
So he’s not in trouble in terms of his presidency being in trouble
immediately. But in terms of the policy direction of the country, he’s
going to be in very, very serious conflict with the rest of the population,
and with the rest of the Iranian political elite.
And I think that is something that is usually missed in the discussion
of Iran, that what you see in Iran is not only a division among the people,
as Roger pointed out, but also a very serious division at the top level of
the society.
So far, it has created a total gridlock to the point that just last
week, for example, the mayor of Tehran, Mr. Ghalibaf, said that the country
has been on holiday for the past year. And therefore, unless there are
mechanisms that are put into place that overcomes the gridlock and
stalemate, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s problems are not going to go away.
++++++++++++++++++++
Read the transcript of the entire show, also featuring guests R. Scott Kemp, Nazila Fathi, and Roger Cohen: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10861
Please notice F Ghazi's interview (Rooz Online eng) yestercay with Fatemeh Karoubi - excerpt at end:
Rooz: Mrs. Karoubi, is it possible for Mr. Karoubi to reach an agreement with Mr. Ahmadinejad and acknowledge him as the president of Iran?
Karoubi: That is absolutely impossible. We have been living together for 47 years and I know him very well and know that such a thing is impossible. On the other hand, an important part of the country’s present problems and crises results from his [Ahmadinejad’s] behavior, personality and management. Our constitution has contemplated a legal solution for this issue. We have one of the most advanced constitutions, if it is ever implemented.
Rooz: Are you referring to Ahmadinejad’s impeachment and removal by the Majlis?
Karoubi: Yes, our constitution has contemplated this possibility very well, and I hope that the relevant constitutional provisions are implemented at the appropriate times.
With More Pressure, We Stand Firmer
http://bit.ly/bMZmjx
"......and it is not clear if the high profile given to Karroubi outside Iran is matched inside the country."
Scott - I ponder the same question frequently. What do your sources tell you?
Bijan,
On Karroubi's status inside Iran --- my reading from sources is that he can play an important role in mobilising opposition. There are longer-term questions about his approach, part of the wider tactical and strategic debate about the position on the future of the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader; however, I think at key moments, especially when opposition is in a lull or re-assessment, Karroubi has been important in generating momentum and, yes, hope.
S.
@Scott
Russian General "The US could deliver a strike on Iran".
link:
http://rt.com/Top_News/2010-02-17/us-attack-iran-amd.html
What's this all about? Either this a move by the russians (influenced by the Iran govt. of course) to distract the situation in Iran or they're really anticipating something based on their intelligence.
here's a video from Russia Today...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14&feature=youtube_gdata
Danial,
Thank you for finding this. Have tried to give a quick analysis in updates for 18 Feb.
S.
Thank you for the comments Scott. In conversations I have had, the question comes back to given the different goals of the various "currents" in the Green movement, does Karroubi have a large enough amount of appeal where he may be able to act as the uniting figure or, as you point out, his allegences to the concept of the IRI are only appealing to a select few of these currents and therefore he can not be the unifying leader that many are looking for. To your point, he does have a great deal of appel and charisma that is sought after in leaders however, he, Mousavi, Khatami, etc all have their moments and fad again. Karroubi seems to stay in the light so to speak more so than the others and with his defiance appears to won more hearts of those on the streets.
Just one of many very complicated aspects of the situation. Again thank you for the analysis.