Middle East Inside Line: Hamas Division, Ahmadinejad with Syria & Hezbollah, Mitchell to Resign?

Hamas Divides over Shalit Case?: Haaretz says that negotiations over the captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit have divided Hamas, with the resignation of Mahmoud A-Zahar, a senior member of the negotiating team. Despite the efforts of German negotiator Gerhard Konrad, Israeli leaders have said that they will not release some senior Palestinian leaders as demanded by Hamas. A-Zahar's argued with Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal over the handling of talks and then left his post.

Hamas' "Israel Spy" Speaks: Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef who worked for Israel's Shin Bet security service, converted to Christianity, and moved to California, said by phone: "I wish I were in Gaza now. I would put on an army uniform and join Israel's special forces in order to liberate Gilad Shalit. If I were there, I could help. We wasted so many years with investigations and arrests to capture the very terrorists that they now want to release in return for Shalit. That must not be done."



Ahmadinejad with Assad and Nasrallah: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah met in Damascus late Thursda. According to Al-Manar, Ahmadinejad met with Palestinian officials from at least 10 political movements during his visit. During that meeting, the Iranian president and the Palestinians expressed their desire for cooperation against Israeli "threats, aggressions," and moves regarding Islamic holy sites in Israel.

Mitchell to Resign?: Hadith a-Nass, a Nazareth-based daily Arab source, reported that special US Mideast envoy George Mitchell has requested to resign. The report claims that Mitchell is disillusioned over the bias of the State Department towards Israel and his failure to advance the resumption of peace negotiations. However, it is said that the White House has turned down Mitchell's request.

Palestine Moves if No Talks with Israel: Palestinian Authority chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, in an article, "The Political Situation in Light of Developments with the U.S. Administration and Israeli Government and Hamas's Continued Coup d'etat", threatens three steps unless negotiations with Israel are resumed.

One is an end to security cooperation with Israel, including the disbanding of the Palestinian security forces which have been trained by the US officials. The second is the nullification of the Oslo Accords and even the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority. The third? Abandoning pursuit of a two-state solution with Israel, and instead working toward a binational state that would exist on all the lands of historic Palestine.

Israel Expanding Settlements?: Haaretz has learned that Israel has plans to build another 600 homes in East Jerusalem.

Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Assassination, Hamas Spy Scandal, Barak with UN

The Dubai Assassination: On Monday, Dubai officials announced they had new suspects in the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh. Following the announcement, Australia's Government called the Israeli ambassador to receive further information: three of the 15 suspects held Australian passports.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said:

We will not be silent on this matter. It is a matter of deep concern. It really goes to the integrity and fabric of the use of state documents, which passports are, for other purposes.

Israel-Palestine: Life in Gaza “Like Walking on Broken Glass”
Israel Interview: Netanyahu on Israeli Culture and Security (22 February)
Middle East Inside Line: Sarkozy on Palestine State, Barak in US for Iran Talks, Son of Hamas Founder Spied for Israel

The Son of Hamas Spy Scandal: The Haaretz article alleging that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, was a long-time Israeli spy continues to provoke. Hamas parliament member Mushir a-Masri said that the story was not worthy of a response and called it Zionist propaganda.


Israel's Barak with UN on Middle East Issues: On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss alleged Iranian and Syrian arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian nuclear issue, the situation in Gaza, and the Goldstone Report on the 2008/09 Gaza War.

Barak said that Hezbollah's 40,000 missiles serve only to harm Israeli civilians. On Iran, the Israeli minister insisted, "Nuclear weapons in Iran will change the strategic balance in the region. We must impose harsh sanctions, with a defined time frame, on Iran."

Barak said that Israel is working to ease the lives of Gaza's residents and to prevent humanitarian problems. However, Ban Ki-moon urged Israel to allow construction materials to enter Gaza as part of plans to rebuild facilities.

Barak closed with criticism of the Goldstone Report:

We are talking about a tendentious, one-sided report that harms the ability of democracies to fight against terror organizations, particularly those that operate from populated areas. The only accomplishment of the Goldstone report is that it strengthens terror organizations and their cynical use of civilians as human shields.

Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.

UPDATED Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon Warning, Obama on Iran Sanctions, Clash within Palestinian Authority

Lebanon's Warning: On Wednesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri warned Israel, "If there is a war against us, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people." He added: "We see what's happening on the ground and in our airspace and what's happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli planes entering Lebanese airspace. This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."

Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded sharply, "Hezbollah murdered his father (former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in 2005 by unknown assailants) and he is in the position of being a hostage."

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Clash in Gaza: Responding to two Gaza-made rockets fired into southern Israel on Sunday and Monday, the Israeli Air Force launched missiles into the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. A military spokesman said, "The Israel Defense Forces will continue to act firmly against anyone who uses terror against Israel, and we see Hamas as solely responsible for maintaining peace and quiet in the Gaza Strip."


Split in Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced Monday that they intend to promote a bill that would let Israeli citizens vote from abroad in Knesset elections. However, Minister of Defence Ehud Barak was quick to criticize his the measure:

I strongly object to granting the right to vote to Israelis living permanently abroad. Only those people who are here with us and who bear the risks and burden of being here should be allowed to vote in Israel.

Obama Proclaims More Sanctions on Iran: President Barack Obama declared last night that a series of sanctions on Iran are to be developed in the coming several weeks, though he could not assure China's support in the UN Security Council.

Palestinian Authority Out in West Bank?: In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Fahmi Shabaneh, who until recently was in charge of the Anti-Corruption Department in the Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service (GIS), warned that Hamas' victory the Fatah-controlled regime in Gaza in 2006-7 is likely to recur in the West Bank. He said that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had surrounded himself with many of the corrupt officials who used to work for his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, and added: “It’s hard to find people in the West Bank who support the Palestinian Authority. People are fed up with the financial corruption and mismanagement of the Palestinian Authority.”

The PA said on Wednesday morning that Shabaneh's allegations were part of an Israeli conspiracy aimed at undermining Abbas because of his refusal to return to the negotiation table unconditionally.

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Sharmine Narwani writes in The Huffington Post:

Another war is looming in the Middle East, say the pundits. It is hard to ignore the whispers -- now louder -- when they are regularly punctuated by hostile statements from various officials in the region, leading further credence to a possible conflagration.

The likely site of the newest regional battle is the Levant. Funnily enough, nobody can pinpoint exactly where, although it is clear that Israel will be involved. Which should tell us something right there.

Middle East Inside Line: Hamas in Russia, Iran FM on “Crazy Israel”, Palestine Talks
Israel, Hamas, and Russia: Who is in Bed with the Bear?

Since the Jewish state's military attack on Lebanon in 2006, it has been itching for a "do-over." Why? Because for the first time in its history, Israel did not win a war. The month-long bombardment of Lebanon resulted in a stalemate -- an intolerable outcome by the standards of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

To add to the indignity, it was a mere few thousand men -- not even a national army -- that took the IDF by surprise.

The cornerstone of Israel's military strategy is deterrence -- whether though brandishing a nuclear arsenal to warn off threatening nation-states, or by Gaza-style intensive attacks that send a strong message to a weaker party. This is a highly militarized state that has lived under the legacy of conflict its entire existence. Loss -- or even perceived loss -- is not an option.


So instead of self-examination, Israel's conflicted, and increasingly right-wing political body unleashed a belligerent tone -- angry, defiant, threatening, unfocused like a petulant and wounded child. Diversionary tactics came into play to focus domestic and international attention elsewhere and fill the frustrating void -- Hamas in Gaza, the potential nuclear aspirations of Iran, Palestinian intransigence on peace talks, Hezbollah's weapons, Syria, Turkey, anti-Semitism, the Goldstone Report.

In recent weeks, Israeli officials have made inflammatory statements about conflicts on half a dozen fronts.

SYRIA:

"When there is another war, you will not just lose it, but you and your family will lose power," right-wing Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman challenged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last Thursday, after Assad claimed that Israel is "driving the region towards war, not peace."

Lieberman went further and hit at the heart of any future Israeli-Syrian rapprochement: "We must bring Syria to realize that...it will have to give up on its ultimate demand for the Golan Heights." Israeli leaders have in the past accepted in principle that the Syrian Golan Heights, captured and occupied by Israel in 1967, would necessarily be part of any bilateral peace deal.

GAZA:

In January -- one year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza that lead to the deaths of 1,400 Palestinians -- Major General Yom Tov Samia, former head of the IDF's Southern Command, told the Jerusalem Post: "We are before another round in Gaza... another war with Hamas is inevitable." And Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Gaza's leaders to "watch their step, and not to cry crocodile tears if they force [us] to take action."

The hue and cry about Hamas' rockets hitting Israeli towns was Tel Aviv and Washington's driving narrative in defense of Israel's military actions in Gaza. Still is. But just this week, the Jewish State announced that a new $200 million rocket defense system called the "Iron Dome" will not be deployed against Gaza as promised. Too expensive for Gaza, says the military, explaining that it will be deployed elsewhere where there is more of an "imminent" threat.

And this comes after months of Israeli insistence that Hamas has significantly boosted its military capabilities and has obtained long-range rockets, mostly from Iran. So which is it -- either they do or don't have weapons, either they do or don't pose a threat?

LEBANON:

No two other parties have been more relentlessly subjected to Israeli threats than Iran and Hezbollah. Last summer, after it was clear that the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah would likely participate at the cabinet level in any unity government formed following Lebanon's June elections, Israeli leaders fell over themselves in their rush to issue warnings. Netanyahu, Barak and Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon all threatened that any border attacks would be blamed on the Lebanese central government -- with repercussions.

Just last month, Israeli Minister Yossi Peled opined, "Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of battle) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen."

And so both Hezbollah and Israel have moved weapons systems closer to their mutual borders.

IRAN:

Iran, in turn, has been the recipient of non-stop bombing threats from Israel over its civilian nuclear program, which the Jewish State claims is really a clandestine plan to build nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Never mind that some two dozen International Atomic Energy Agency reports over six years show no diversion of materials to weaponization. Or that Israeli military intelligence has been extending the date for a finished Iranian nuclear warhead since the 1990s. Last June, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan declared the new date for the first Iranian nuke would be in 2014. But Israel's war drums have kept beating as though these weapons were already sitting on launch pads, ready to go.

TURKEY:

Relatively new on the scene in the game of belligerent words is Turkey. A rare Israeli ally in the Middle East both in political and military terms, Turkey has drawn away from the alliance since Israel's widely-criticized Gaza attacks last year, when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at the particularly brutal IDF campaign.

Things have gone from bad to worse since, culminating a month ago in the now-infamous Ayalon row when the Israeli deputy foreign minister publicly and deliberately humiliated Turkey's ambassador in front of cameras. Israel has called Turkey anti-Semitic and very recently slammed the Turkish prime minister again when he drew attention to the continuing Israeli blockade of Gaza and its daily violations of Lebanese airspace.

**********

Some Israeli critics suggest that the destabilizing escalation in rhetoric may not just be as a result of Israel's psychological loss in 2006, but more recently, because of an increased paranoia about international isolation -- the result of war crimes allegations documented against Israel in the UN's Goldstone Report about the Gaza war, and the country's ongoing occupation of Palestinian lands.

In a stunning attack on his government two weeks ago, Israeli writer Gideon Levy wrote a commentary piece in Haaretz in which he takes to task their "cynical" use of Holocaust Remembrance Day to propagandize toward political ends:

"An Israeli public relations drive like this hasn't been seen for ages. The timing of the unusual effort - never have so many ministers deployed across the globe - is not coincidental: When the world is talking Goldstone, we talk Holocaust, as if out to blur the impression. When the world talks occupation, we'll talk Iran as if we wanted them to forget."

But the escalation of rhetoric from Israel's right-wing government is not being viewed as simple political posturing -- more, like a promise of battle. As concerned as the Jewish State may be about conflict on its borders, its neighbors -- having been on the receiving end of superior Israeli weapons, and having suffered far larger numbers of civilian casualties -- are taking these words very seriously.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, at a joint press conference with Spain's Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos on Thursday pointed to this verbal escalation of hostilities by calling on Israel to "desist from making threats against Gaza, southern Lebanon, Iran and now Syria."

Because rhetoric after all creates a perception. And perception is 100% of politics -- not to be played with when standing on a tinderbox. The Levant has always been rife with small-scale border skirmishes -- that is the way of an area re-mapped by foreigners, with unnatural, artificial borders. But it is only Israel that has, since 1973, launched full-on military battles from these skirmishes. And without a doubt it is gearing up for a fight. Where, is anyone's guess.