The Latest from Iran (24 February): Shocks and Erosions

2100 GMT: Law and Order Story of the Week. After the court session for Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan, the newspaper's journalist Payam Fazli-Nejad was reportedly "heavily beaten, barely escaping his death", and Ahmadinejad right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has become "mamnou ol-tasvir" (his photos forbidden) on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

An Iranian activist today is adding that the weapon used on Fazli-Nejad was a "dessert knife".

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rafsanjani’s Daughter is Confronted
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)
UPDATED Iran 18-Minute Video: Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (14/15 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (23 February): Videoing the Attacks

2040 GMT: War on Terror, I Tell You. I'm sure it is entirely coincidental in light of current events --- announcement of arrest of Jundullah leader a week after it occurred, Ahmadinejad declaring that it is Iran not "the West" that is fighting terrorism (1745 GMT), declaration of 100 arrested on 22 Bahman as "terrorists" (1435 GMT) --- but this just in from the Ministry of Intelligence:

Three agents of the [Kurdish] Komala terrorist group who were planning to bomb a factory belonging to the defence ministry in Tehran were identified and arrested....Two foreign made bombs concealed in loudspeakers and three Kalashnikovs (assault rifles) were seized....Due to the occupying presence of the US forces in Iraq and their support of some terrorist groups like Komala, their training, and equipping them with military hardware is carried out by America's intelligence services.

1940 GMT: Urgent --- Assembly of Experts Statement. Fars News reports, and Zamaaneh summarises, that the statement at the end of the two-day Assembly meeting has not only declared support for the Supreme Leader (expected) but declared that the opportunity for the "repent and reform" of opposition leaders has ended (unexpected). This "sedition" against the "intelligence guidance" of Ayatollah Khamenei can no longer be tolerated.

1920 GMT: Is This the Level of Ahmadinejad's Support? Claimed video from Birjand in south Khorasan (eastern Iran) for the President's speech today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRAdgALdStI[/youtube]

1910 GMT: Defending Against the Video. The Los Angeles Times, drawing from Iranian state media (see 0645 GMT) has a summary of damage control from regime officials:

"Today, police are powerful, popular, courageous and reasonable," Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, told police commanders...."Everywhere in the world, even in Europe and America, police strongly confront rioters. No government tolerates insecurity, arson and vandalizing of public properties."....

"All detention centers, interrogation rooms and reformatories have been ordered to install surveillance cameras and monitoring equipment," [Iran's police chief Gen. Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam] said. "Police inspectors will regularly visit the detention centers. Police are also setting up a committee to protect civil rights in detention centers."....

"Even when a European city hosts a summit, the city is militarized," said Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani, commander of the Tehran Revolutionary Guards. "How can we turn a blind eye to people's security?"

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner News (cont.). Iranian authorities have issued temporary release orders for Ebrahim Yazdi, head of the Freedom Movement of Iran, and Hedayat Aghai, of the Kargozaran Party, today.

The case of Yazdi, who has been released for 10 days, is still being considered; however, Aghai, freed released tomorrow for a week, has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison.

It is also reported that Feizollah Arabsorkhi, executive member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has been sentenced to six years in prison for “activities against national security and propaganda against the regime”.

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner News. The Iranian Supreme Court has commuted the death sentence of Kurdish journalist Adnan Hassanpour, who has been jailed since 2007 for mohareb (war against God). Adnanpour will now serve a 31-year prison term.

1840 GMT: The wife of Mohammad Maleki, the first post-1979 chancellor of Tehran Revolution, has spoken to Radio Farda of her husband's deteriorating health. The 76-year-old Maleki, who was detained in August and charged in September with actions against national security, suffers from prostate cancer.

Ghodsi Mirmoez said her husband sounded very ill the last time they spoke and that she had not been allowed to meet him for more than 20 days. She pleaded, "I wonder if international organizations can do anything for my husband. His physical condition is grave."

1805 GMT: Not Defeated. Writing for Tehran Bureau, Ali Chenar in Tehran reflects on the politics of 22 Bahman and its aftermath and concludes:

Certainly one of the questions about the Green Movement is why it has remained a grassroots movement and not become a political organization. One reason might be that it does not care to become identified with a specific ideology and risk alienating various segments of the society whose support it currently enjoys. In the past eight months it has instead walked a fine line, remaining a popular but amorphous phenomenon, encompassing all political factions and social groups seeking justice. It has avoided intensifying the conflict, avoided pressing for regime change. Rather than evolving, it has maintained a state of entropy. Yet over the past several months, its inclusive nature has helped it sustain its momentum and survive.

What the Green Movement has achieved already is enormous. Many would tell you that the events of the past eight months have permanently changed the social and political landscape. A new era has begun. Those groups critical of the government now map the very fabric of Iranian society. They include both traditional conservatives and secular liberals, progressive students and cautious businessmen, men and women alike. As one observer told this correspondent, "Everyone has realized that everyone else thinks the emperor is naked too."

1745 GMT: It's Our "War on Terror" Now. President Ahmadinejad neatly twinned the "terrorism" and "Iran v. the West" themes in his speech today in Khorasan in eastern Iran. "Why have you [in the US] issued a passport for Rigi if you want to arrest a terrorist?....The Iranian security forces captured Rigi without any bloodshed. It is better for these countries to adopt the Iranian model of campaigning against terrorism."

1435 GMT: The Big "Terrorist" Push. Ahh, here we go. In the same week that Iranian authorities trumpet the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Hamadani declares that security forces arrested about 100 members of dissident groups on 11 February. He asserts that they are members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and Association of Iranian Monarchists and intended to carry out “bombings and assassinations”.

1355  GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On a very slow day for news, we have noted the account by blogger and journalist Zhila Baniyaghoub, posted by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, about the detention of her husband, "Bahman Amouei", and others in Evin Prison. Amouei is among the hundreds of journalists and activists arrested in the postelection crackdown:

Bahman says he, along with 40 others are imprisoned in a cell less than 20 meters square. He says their whole day is wasted in lines; queuing for the toilet, queuing for the showers, and queuing for the telephone....

Their condition is so harsh that he envies Masud and Ahmad, who got transferred to the Rajai Shahr prison. They would at least be able to spread their legs.

I asked if he read books there. He retorted with another question, "Do you think it's possible to read in such conditions?"

0925 GMT: We've posted a four-minute video, circulating widely on the Internet, and translation of an encounter between Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and an unidentified group of men.

0910 GMT: Larijani in Japan. No surprise that the Speaker of the Parliament would make headlines in Iranian state media, as he begins his 5-day trip in the Far East, for a nuclear declaration: "Although the Islamic Republic has remained committed to its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the agency does not fulfill its duties about supplying fuel needed for the Tehran research reactor. Based on terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the IAEA has no right to urge Iran to suspend its nuclear activities."

0800 GMT: Full credit to CNN for highlighting the role of social media in disseminating the post-election news about events in Iran, featuring activists such as "OxfordGirl".

Shame, however, that the report closed with a soundbite reduction of the events of 22 Bahman: "while activism on-line was successful in organising the masses and keeping opposition alive, the opposition inside the country either did not plan for or now lacks the power to respond to the Government's crackdown". (No doubt that social media can soon put that right.)

0755 GMT: Firebreak. Amidst the drumbeat in parts of the US media for military action against Tehran (see our entry yesterday on The Washington Post), some Obama Administration officials are holding the line against an attack. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, repeated yesterday, "I worry a lot about the unintended consequences of any sort of military action. For now, the diplomatic and the economic levers of international power are, and ought to be, the levers first pulled."

0745 GMT: And the (Jundullah) Beat Goes On. Press TV tries once more to drive home the right message, "Iran says it has irrefutable evidence confirming that terrorist ringleader Abdolmalek Rigi had been aided and abetted by the US government before his arrest."

On the side, however, it is interesting how state media's narrative is changing. Initially, Rigi was taken in Dubai as he was awaiting the departure of his plane. Or he was captured in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Or he was seized in Pakistan. Now "the leader of the Jundallah terrorist group was on a flight from the United Arab Emirates to Kyrgyzstan when he was tracked down by Iranian security forces on Tuesday".

All especially interesting, in fact, because an EA source continues to report that Rigi was actually detained last week. (Al Jazeera is also reporting this from its sources.)

0645 GMT: At one point on Tuesday it felt as if EA staff were trying to measure an earthquake that had taken place in a remote area. We all had seen and been taken aback by the 18-minute video of the 15 June attack on Tehran University's dormitories, but we did not know how many people inside Iran had viewed or knew of the footage.

We did know, from one of our correspondents with excellent contacts in Iran, that the BBC Persian broadcast which first displayed extracts from the video had been viewed and that those who had seen it had been unsettled and angered. And this morning, we have confirmation that the footage has shaken the political ground: Fars News has posted a long article trying to put the imagery in the "proper" context.

The impact of earthquakes is not necessarily that they bring a collapse, however; they can have longer-term effects by eroding and thus changing the landscape. So Tuesday was also a case of challengers chipping away at the Ahmadinejad Government, even as the regime was trying to manufacture its own earthquake with the propaganda around the capture of Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

While Ministers used press conference to announce that Rigi's detention proved the US-Israel-Europe campaign to terrorise the Islamic Republic into submission, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies in the Assembly of Experts were staking out their limited but important call for changes to Iran's electoral system. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani was away from the main political arena, beginning his five-day trip to Japan (an event which, in itself, deserves attention; what is Larijani hoping to accomplish, not just for his country but for himself?), but his media outlets were not halting their assault on President Ahmadinejad.

And then there were the ripples from Mehdi Karroubi's statement, which made clear that the opposition --- rebuilding, re-assessing --- has not been quieted.

The significance of the Tehran University video is two-fold. On the one hand, it points to rifts within the regime; as Mr Verde has analysed in a separate entry, the vital question, "Who leaked the fotoage?", brings a variety of answers, but all of them point to battles and uncertainties in the Islamic Republic and the inability of the Supreme Leader to resolve them. And on the other hand, its existence --- even if known only to a fraction of the Iranian people at this moment --- is a catalyst for anger and thus renewed determination of those who want justice and responsibility from their Government and system.

And so another day begins. There may not be aftershocks, but there will be more shifts. And it is in the shifts, rather than the drama of earthquakes, that this crisis is playing out.

Latest Iran Video: Rafsanjani's Daughter is Confronted

Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and a prominent women's rights activists, was leaving after a talk at a university when she was surrounded by a group of men. Pedestrian, who calls the group "Basij", has provided a translation and explanation of the conversation:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9GP7iShZ48[/youtube]

A group of men, are forcing asking her to come out of the car, the one in front throws out her belongings, they say: “why were you here giving a talk? what were you saying?”

She responds: “Because I wanted to.”


Basij: “so we want you to talk to us too.”

All the time the men are also arguing amongst themselves which is the most interesting part of the conversation. Their use of the words “debate”, “discussion”, “dialog”, “conversation"....these are all words they’ve openly taken from the reform movement.

Basij: “weren’t you the one who was just making the speech? About the student movement having demands? Walk outside your car, and let’s have a conversation. We’re students too, we want to talk. Be certain, we don’t want to be rude, we just want to talk. Only talk. ”

Faezeh: “you can talk anywhere you want. Go and talk.”

Basij: “no, we want you to repeat some of the things you said.”

Faezeh: “what did I say? Tell me what I said.”

Basij: “you don’t know what you said?”

Faezeh: “I said what I said. If you have any comments about what I said, well, you can state them now.”

A number of the men start shouting together:  “when are you going to end this? How long is this going to continue?”

Another man: “how long are you going to continue this?”

Faezeh: “continue what?”

The men respond together, each stating one of the words: “this”, “this green …” “Omavi movement” “American movement” [The Bani Umayyah, Omavi, had been enemies of the Bani Hashim, the prophet's family. So they are indicating that the movement is against the prophet and Shi'a Islam.]

Basij: “are you against this movement or for it?”

Faezeh: “that’s my own business.”

Basij: “you claim that you came here to study today, but the doors were closed so you went amongst the students to give a speech?”

Faezeh: “Go inside and ask anyone you want what I was doing here.”

Basij: “who do we ask?”

Faezeh: “anyone, administration, professors, etc”

Basij: “we want to ask you. You’re standing here, we can ask you. We want to have a debate”

Faezeh: “I’m not going to answer you. I don’t want to answer you. A debate has to be two-sided. I have a right not to have a discussion, not to have a debate.”

They keep pressing her to have a “debate”. “Why did you come here today? To incite the students?”

Faezeh: “I had a class today.”

Basij: “show me the print of the class” [note sure what he means by "print"]

Faezeh: “if you have a class, you keep the print? Nobody keeps it.”

Basij: “do you have the documents with you? Do you have a student ID?”

Someone from the back  shouts: “do you have the ownership documents of this building with you?” [hitting at Rafsanjani's rumored fortune] “this is her father’s land after all, this is all her inheritance.”

Another basiji says: “no, don’t smear. don’t be rude. Put her things back in the car.”

She says: “you can’t use force, you can’t …”

A basiji says: “thank God, she has started talking, everybody praise Allah!”

As she starts driving they shout: “pour some water behind her” [pouring a glass of water behind a traveler is a custom in Iran, symbolizing a safe journey and a safe return. They are saying it to mock her.]

As she drives away she says: “be certain, you will not reach your aims using these methods.”

And they all shout together: “and you will?!”

Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.

The Latest from Iran (2 February): A Quiet Start to An Unquiet Day

2150 GMT: A Final Note. We'll know more tomorrow, after Iranian state media kicks into high gear, but the Ahmadinejad statement on the nuclear talks --- which had effectively gone into the freezer --- could be big. All of a sudden, the move of Iran's uranium stock outside the country is A-OK: "If we allow them to take it, there is no problem. We sign a contract to give 3.5 percent enriched uranium and receive 20 percent enriched one after four or five months."

But --- and watch this, because it will probably be missed by Western media more concerned with the West-Iran dynamic --- Ahmadinejad may have re-opened a fight with Iran's "conservatives" over his nuclear strategy. As the Associated Press notes, "He dismissed concerns by what he called 'colleagues' that the West would not return the uranium."

More tomorrow.....

NEW Iran Document: The Rallying Call of Mousavi’s 14 Points (2 February)
NEW Iran Letter: Journalist Emadeddin Baghi in Prison
NEW Iran Document: Khatami Statement on Rights and Protests (1 February)
Latest Iran Video: Sunday Boxing – French Police v. Iranian Ambassador (31 January)
Iran Football Special: Green Movement Shoots! It Scores!
NEW Latest Iran Video: Foreign Minister Mottaki on Elections & Protests (31 January)
The Latest from Iran (1 February): The Anniversary Begins

2135 GMT: Hamlet and 22 Bahman. Let's close tonight on a high literary note.

Rah-e-Sabz, unsurprisingly, is jabbing away at the Government. For example, it is claiming that the Revolutionary Court has stepped back in its latest bulletin by not connecting the two executions last week to the post-election demonstrations. However, its cheekiest story is a summary of Seyed Hassan Khomeini's supposed comments as he cold-shouldered President Ahmadinejad yesterday: "To be or not to be a protester, that is the question."

2130 GMT: Another release. Journalist Mostafa Izadi, arrested on Ashura, has been freed after 34 days in solitary confinement.

2105 GMT: Missing the Point. Almost all Western media have picked up on one of today's big events, the statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Unfortunately, not all have realised the significance of Mousavi's resolute call to arms against the Government of "dictatorship and tyranny" for the rallies on 22 Bahman. The Associated Press mis-reads, and The Washington Post prints the mis-reading without question:

Iran's opposition leader appealed to his supporters and other anti-government activists Tuesday not to overstep the law in pressing for political and social changes....His comments also expose the range of separate and sometimes conflicting aims within the opposition camp.

2100 GMT: Protests and Releases. For the fourth night in a row, hundreds have gathered in front of Evin Prison, and for the fourth night, detainees have been freed. About 20 joined the crowd this evening.

2050 GMT: Correction. Big Correction. That's not just an Ahmadinejad posture (2020 GMT) over the nuclear talks. It appears to be a concession: according to Reuters, the President said, "We have no problem sending our enriched uranium abroad."

2040 GMT: More Invites to the Rally. The reformist Association of Combatant Clergy, calling for an acceptance of people's rule, has asked Iranians to take to the streets on 22 Bahman.

2020 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, it appears that, while Iran heats up, President Ahmadinejad is still playing the international field. First, he used a meeting with the Qatari Crown Prince to strike a pose, “The Westerners cannot bear the thought of security and solidarity among regional countries. They have survived largely by sowing discord and inciting instability in the region.”

Then, perhaps more significantly, Ahmadinejad used an interview on national television tonight to keep open the prospect of a deal on Iran's nuclear programme, offering assurances that a "swap" of 20% uranium for Iran's 3.5% stock inside the country "would be properly and fully implemented".

Ahmadinejad also said that there were discussions for a swap of jailed Iranians for three US citizens detained in August after crossing into Iran from northern Iraq.

2010 GMT: Clerical Challenge. Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, meeting members of the Islamic Association of Students at Tehran University, has criticised those who “introduce their false interpretation as the religion while seeking a specific political goal”, pointedly turning the regime's charges of "mohareb" against it: “The enemy of God (mohareb) is the one who kills and butchers people, not the protester with empty hands.”

Bayat Zanjani continued, “In the Islamic Republic we say one with a question is free to ask his/her question, he/she should not be called an Enemy of God over a question, criticism, or even protest.” However, “those who use the public podiums for terrorising, threatening, and unfortunately a platform for giving untrue and self-established definitions of the Shia’s teachings, are far from the religion of Mohammad (the Prophet) and Ali (the first Imam of Shi'a) and all they do is to feed their false interpretations to the public.”

1830 GMT: Arrests (cont.). It is reported that Ali Mohammad Eslampour, journalist and chief editor of Navay-e Vaght in Kermanshah, has been arrested.

1720 GMT: Arrests. Rah-e-Sabz reports that four members of Tehran University's Islamic Students Association have been arrested. We published three of the names earlier today (1320 GMT).

1715 GMT: Thanks to an EA correspondent, we're posting the 14 headline points of today's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1645 GMT: As an EA reader has noted in comments, the website Radio Zameneh is back on-line after a recent cyber-attack.

1637 GMT: You Know the EA All Is Well Trophy Video, Right? Well, today's winner is the Supreme Leader, who tells a group of Tehran University professors: "I'm optimistic. Recent bitter events were the result of ignorance."

1633 GMT: On the Plus Side. We're still waiting for the English translation of the Mousavi statement, but it is now getting attention in newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal and the BBC.

1630 GMT: Journalistic Idiocy Awards (US Section). It is one of the wonders of American political culture that anyone gives a moment of attention to Daniel Pipes. (I could explain why, but this would take me beyond professional decency.)

So here's a moment of attention to Pipes' latest wisdom before running away: "How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran".

1620 GMT: Journalistic Idiocy Awards (Iran Section). Javan, the newspaper linked to the Revolutionary Guard, claims that the opposition is paying $100 to people to protest on 11 February.

1340 GMT: Worst Prediction for 22 Bahman. Retired US Navy Captain and "Fox News military analyst" Chuck Nash says, with a straight face, that President Ahmadinejad may test a nuclear device on 11 February.

1335 GMT: Interesting Clues in the "West". Lindsay Hilsum, of Britain's Channel 4, offers some interesting teasers on US and European policy from a gathering at Chatham House in London:

Last night, I went to a discussion on Iran. “Chatham House rules” mean I can’t quote anyone who was there, but the highlights are worth noting.

Someone who is well in with the Obama administration told us that when the president started his “hand outstretched” policy towards Iran it was “100 per cent about the nuclear and external policy and zero per cent about Iran’s internal issues.”

After 12 June, and the turbulent post-election crisis, there’s been some recalibration – he’d now put it at 70/30....

Another [source] (close to a European government) said: “We must ensure we do no harm. This is not our moment, and not our movement. But we must ensure the opposition is not subjugated to the nuclear issue or business interests.”

1330 GMT: Slowing Down the Net. I'll leave others to speculate on significance of this report: Internet traffic for some servers in Iran has ceased; for others it is reduced.

1320 GMT: Arrests and Sentences. Reports --- student activists Vahid Abedini, Navid Abedini, and Esmail Izadi have been detained after their houses were raided. Journalist Niloofar Laripour has been arrested after being summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence.

Journalist Keyvan Samimi has been sentenced to six years in prison, with a lifetime ban on political activity.

1315 GMT: We're Going to Get You, Hashemi. That threat against Hashemi Rafsanjani, sending the files of his children to court (see 0945 GMT)? It came from the same man who declared today We Will Kill the Detainees (1025 GMT), deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi.

1310 GMT: It is reported that the second court session for the 16 Ashura protesters, whose trial began on Saturday, will be held Wednesday. Five of the defendants, including two women, are charged with "mohareb" (war against God).

1025 GMT: Battling over Executions. Hours after the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, said he would not be pushed by "hard-liners" into quicker executions and would follow the legal process, his deputy has reportedly assured, We're Going to Kill Them.

Fars quotes Ebrahim Raeesi in a meeting in Qom, "The two people executed (Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour) and another nine who will soon be executed were definitely arrested in recent riots and each was linked with counter-revolutionary movements. They had participated in riots with the aim of creating disunity and toppling the system."

1020 GMT: Mohammad Ali Rafi'i, a member of political department of the Islamic Students Organization, has reportedly been abducted when leaving Tehran University. Peyke Iran also claims pressure on detained students to confess on television.

0945 GMT: Pressuring Rafsanjani. It appears the regime just does not trust Hashemi Rafsanjani enough to let him be: files on the investigation of his children, including Mehdi Hashemi, have been presented to a Tehran court.

(There is a hot Internet rumour that at least one of Rafsanjani's children will be marching on 22 Bahman. Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, has been involved in demonstrations since June.)

0940 GMT: Kayhan London (not to be confused with the "hard-line" Kayhan in Tehran) has now come out behind the leadership of the Green movement, while stressing it contains other political currents, and defended Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi against the attacks of those who condemn them of loyalty to the Islamic Republic.

0935 GMT: Ruining the Revolution. Agence France Presse and Reuters have both picked up on Mir Hossein Mousavi's declaration (see 0710 GMT), and it loses none of its force in translation. Mousavi claims the goals of the 1979 Revolution have not been fulfilled because the "roots of tyranny and dictatorship" still exist; Mousavi no longer believes "that the revolution had removed all those structures which could lead to totalitarianism and dictatorship":

Today, one can identify both elements and foundations which produce dictatorship as well as resistance against returning to this dictatorship Stifling the media, filling the prisons and brutally killing people who peacefully demand their rights in the streets indicate the roots of tyranny and dictatorship remain from the monarchist era... I don't believe that the revolution achieved its goals.

0825 GMT: Yahoo Keeps Mowj-e-Sabz Off-Line? In December, Mowj-e-Sabz, the key Green movement website, was knocked off-line by a cyber-attack. Those behind the site said at the time that they were suspending operations but intended to resume their journalism.

This now in from blogger Ethan Zuckerman:

I’ve been in regular contact with the administrators of Mowjcamp as they’ve tried to regain control of their site. For six weeks, they’ve been getting the runaround from Yahoo! (where they’d originally registered the domain names) and Moniker (where the hackers moved control of the domain name). Yahoo has been informed that the site was illegally moved by hackers who managed to access a Yahoo Mail account and authorize a transfer to Moniker – they’ve told the site administrators that there’s nothing they can do, and the problem’s in Moniker’s hands. Moniker, in turn, tells the administrators that they’ve responded to Yahoo, which will resolve their problem. In the meantime, the site continues to be inaccessible from the URLs by which it is most widely known.

0805 GMT: With the help of EA readers, we have posted an English translation of a letter we have received from Tehran, "Journalist Emadeddin Baghi in Prison".

0745 GMT: "A New Kind of Revolution". Setareh Sabety in Iranian.com:

[This] is the first revolution that does not need leadership nor ideology because it is fueled by a basic, unrelenting need for freedom and justice that is so strong it is self-correcting and self-propelling! This is not just a civil rights movement; this is not merely a reform movement. This is a new kind of Revolution.

0710 GMT: Quiet No Longer. Today's first big move has come from Mir Hossein Mousavi, answering 10 questions on his website Kalemeh. Among his forthright declarations: "We have lost complete hope in the judiciary system"; "Resistance to dictatorship is the precious heritage of the Islamic Revolution"; "People have always wanted justice; the demand for freedom is born of human thought".

0705 GMT: On the Economic Front. Iran's oil and gas revenue fell more than 45 percent in the first half of the current Iranian year (March-September 2009) compared to the same period in 2008.

0700 GMT: Looking for the Positive. About 1000 family members of detainees and supporters gathered again in front of Evin Prison last night. Almost 30 prisoners were reportedly released.

Amongst those freed was Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, released on bail after his detention last month.

0650 GMT: And Those Who Have Been "Disappeared". Photographer Mehraneh Atashi and her husband Madjid Ghaffari were arrested on 12 January and detained, apparently in solitary confinement in ward 209 of Evin Prison. Authorities have released no information about charges against them. They have had no access to a lawyer, no visits from their family, and no contact apart from a brief telephone call to say they had been arrested.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has raised the situation of Atashi and Ghaffari as a case typical of "hundreds" of Iranians in the post-election conflict.

0640 GMT: The Detentions. Fereshteh Ghazi complements our morning analysis of "threats and arrests" with a summary of the current situation of political prisoners, focusing on the attempt to break advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0630 GMT: Three prominent Iranian authors have been arrested: Reza Khandan, Omid Montazeri, and Alireza Saqafi.

0620 GMT: So the big news from the 1st day of the commemorations of the 1979 Islamic Revolution? There was no big news.

Perhaps the most notable development was former President Mohammad Khatami joining the calls, albeit implicitly, for people to rally on 22 Bahman on 11 February (see separate entry). On the regime side, however, there were no big declarations, no mass gatherings, merely a rather muted ceremony at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery and President Ahmadinejad's strained appearance at the Khomeini memorial.

Government actions were more of the "negative" kind, with scattered threats and arrests. The strategy of trying to wipe out public protests continues, but even that appears to be filled with tension as the big day approaches.

22 Bahman is a week on Thursday.