The Latest from Iran (24 February): Shocks and Erosions

2100 GMT: Law and Order Story of the Week. After the court session for Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan, the newspaper's journalist Payam Fazli-Nejad was reportedly "heavily beaten, barely escaping his death", and Ahmadinejad right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has become "mamnou ol-tasvir" (his photos forbidden) on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

An Iranian activist today is adding that the weapon used on Fazli-Nejad was a "dessert knife".

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rafsanjani’s Daughter is Confronted
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)
UPDATED Iran 18-Minute Video: Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (14/15 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (23 February): Videoing the Attacks

2040 GMT: War on Terror, I Tell You. I'm sure it is entirely coincidental in light of current events --- announcement of arrest of Jundullah leader a week after it occurred, Ahmadinejad declaring that it is Iran not "the West" that is fighting terrorism (1745 GMT), declaration of 100 arrested on 22 Bahman as "terrorists" (1435 GMT) --- but this just in from the Ministry of Intelligence:

Three agents of the [Kurdish] Komala terrorist group who were planning to bomb a factory belonging to the defence ministry in Tehran were identified and arrested....Two foreign made bombs concealed in loudspeakers and three Kalashnikovs (assault rifles) were seized....Due to the occupying presence of the US forces in Iraq and their support of some terrorist groups like Komala, their training, and equipping them with military hardware is carried out by America's intelligence services.

1940 GMT: Urgent --- Assembly of Experts Statement. Fars News reports, and Zamaaneh summarises, that the statement at the end of the two-day Assembly meeting has not only declared support for the Supreme Leader (expected) but declared that the opportunity for the "repent and reform" of opposition leaders has ended (unexpected). This "sedition" against the "intelligence guidance" of Ayatollah Khamenei can no longer be tolerated.

1920 GMT: Is This the Level of Ahmadinejad's Support? Claimed video from Birjand in south Khorasan (eastern Iran) for the President's speech today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRAdgALdStI[/youtube]

1910 GMT: Defending Against the Video. The Los Angeles Times, drawing from Iranian state media (see 0645 GMT) has a summary of damage control from regime officials:

"Today, police are powerful, popular, courageous and reasonable," Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, told police commanders...."Everywhere in the world, even in Europe and America, police strongly confront rioters. No government tolerates insecurity, arson and vandalizing of public properties."....

"All detention centers, interrogation rooms and reformatories have been ordered to install surveillance cameras and monitoring equipment," [Iran's police chief Gen. Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam] said. "Police inspectors will regularly visit the detention centers. Police are also setting up a committee to protect civil rights in detention centers."....

"Even when a European city hosts a summit, the city is militarized," said Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani, commander of the Tehran Revolutionary Guards. "How can we turn a blind eye to people's security?"

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner News (cont.). Iranian authorities have issued temporary release orders for Ebrahim Yazdi, head of the Freedom Movement of Iran, and Hedayat Aghai, of the Kargozaran Party, today.

The case of Yazdi, who has been released for 10 days, is still being considered; however, Aghai, freed released tomorrow for a week, has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison.

It is also reported that Feizollah Arabsorkhi, executive member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has been sentenced to six years in prison for “activities against national security and propaganda against the regime”.

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner News. The Iranian Supreme Court has commuted the death sentence of Kurdish journalist Adnan Hassanpour, who has been jailed since 2007 for mohareb (war against God). Adnanpour will now serve a 31-year prison term.

1840 GMT: The wife of Mohammad Maleki, the first post-1979 chancellor of Tehran Revolution, has spoken to Radio Farda of her husband's deteriorating health. The 76-year-old Maleki, who was detained in August and charged in September with actions against national security, suffers from prostate cancer.

Ghodsi Mirmoez said her husband sounded very ill the last time they spoke and that she had not been allowed to meet him for more than 20 days. She pleaded, "I wonder if international organizations can do anything for my husband. His physical condition is grave."

1805 GMT: Not Defeated. Writing for Tehran Bureau, Ali Chenar in Tehran reflects on the politics of 22 Bahman and its aftermath and concludes:

Certainly one of the questions about the Green Movement is why it has remained a grassroots movement and not become a political organization. One reason might be that it does not care to become identified with a specific ideology and risk alienating various segments of the society whose support it currently enjoys. In the past eight months it has instead walked a fine line, remaining a popular but amorphous phenomenon, encompassing all political factions and social groups seeking justice. It has avoided intensifying the conflict, avoided pressing for regime change. Rather than evolving, it has maintained a state of entropy. Yet over the past several months, its inclusive nature has helped it sustain its momentum and survive.

What the Green Movement has achieved already is enormous. Many would tell you that the events of the past eight months have permanently changed the social and political landscape. A new era has begun. Those groups critical of the government now map the very fabric of Iranian society. They include both traditional conservatives and secular liberals, progressive students and cautious businessmen, men and women alike. As one observer told this correspondent, "Everyone has realized that everyone else thinks the emperor is naked too."

1745 GMT: It's Our "War on Terror" Now. President Ahmadinejad neatly twinned the "terrorism" and "Iran v. the West" themes in his speech today in Khorasan in eastern Iran. "Why have you [in the US] issued a passport for Rigi if you want to arrest a terrorist?....The Iranian security forces captured Rigi without any bloodshed. It is better for these countries to adopt the Iranian model of campaigning against terrorism."

1435 GMT: The Big "Terrorist" Push. Ahh, here we go. In the same week that Iranian authorities trumpet the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Hamadani declares that security forces arrested about 100 members of dissident groups on 11 February. He asserts that they are members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and Association of Iranian Monarchists and intended to carry out “bombings and assassinations”.

1355  GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On a very slow day for news, we have noted the account by blogger and journalist Zhila Baniyaghoub, posted by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, about the detention of her husband, "Bahman Amouei", and others in Evin Prison. Amouei is among the hundreds of journalists and activists arrested in the postelection crackdown:

Bahman says he, along with 40 others are imprisoned in a cell less than 20 meters square. He says their whole day is wasted in lines; queuing for the toilet, queuing for the showers, and queuing for the telephone....

Their condition is so harsh that he envies Masud and Ahmad, who got transferred to the Rajai Shahr prison. They would at least be able to spread their legs.

I asked if he read books there. He retorted with another question, "Do you think it's possible to read in such conditions?"

0925 GMT: We've posted a four-minute video, circulating widely on the Internet, and translation of an encounter between Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and an unidentified group of men.

0910 GMT: Larijani in Japan. No surprise that the Speaker of the Parliament would make headlines in Iranian state media, as he begins his 5-day trip in the Far East, for a nuclear declaration: "Although the Islamic Republic has remained committed to its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the agency does not fulfill its duties about supplying fuel needed for the Tehran research reactor. Based on terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the IAEA has no right to urge Iran to suspend its nuclear activities."

0800 GMT: Full credit to CNN for highlighting the role of social media in disseminating the post-election news about events in Iran, featuring activists such as "OxfordGirl".

Shame, however, that the report closed with a soundbite reduction of the events of 22 Bahman: "while activism on-line was successful in organising the masses and keeping opposition alive, the opposition inside the country either did not plan for or now lacks the power to respond to the Government's crackdown". (No doubt that social media can soon put that right.)

0755 GMT: Firebreak. Amidst the drumbeat in parts of the US media for military action against Tehran (see our entry yesterday on The Washington Post), some Obama Administration officials are holding the line against an attack. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, repeated yesterday, "I worry a lot about the unintended consequences of any sort of military action. For now, the diplomatic and the economic levers of international power are, and ought to be, the levers first pulled."

0745 GMT: And the (Jundullah) Beat Goes On. Press TV tries once more to drive home the right message, "Iran says it has irrefutable evidence confirming that terrorist ringleader Abdolmalek Rigi had been aided and abetted by the US government before his arrest."

On the side, however, it is interesting how state media's narrative is changing. Initially, Rigi was taken in Dubai as he was awaiting the departure of his plane. Or he was captured in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Or he was seized in Pakistan. Now "the leader of the Jundallah terrorist group was on a flight from the United Arab Emirates to Kyrgyzstan when he was tracked down by Iranian security forces on Tuesday".

All especially interesting, in fact, because an EA source continues to report that Rigi was actually detained last week. (Al Jazeera is also reporting this from its sources.)

0645 GMT: At one point on Tuesday it felt as if EA staff were trying to measure an earthquake that had taken place in a remote area. We all had seen and been taken aback by the 18-minute video of the 15 June attack on Tehran University's dormitories, but we did not know how many people inside Iran had viewed or knew of the footage.

We did know, from one of our correspondents with excellent contacts in Iran, that the BBC Persian broadcast which first displayed extracts from the video had been viewed and that those who had seen it had been unsettled and angered. And this morning, we have confirmation that the footage has shaken the political ground: Fars News has posted a long article trying to put the imagery in the "proper" context.

The impact of earthquakes is not necessarily that they bring a collapse, however; they can have longer-term effects by eroding and thus changing the landscape. So Tuesday was also a case of challengers chipping away at the Ahmadinejad Government, even as the regime was trying to manufacture its own earthquake with the propaganda around the capture of Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

While Ministers used press conference to announce that Rigi's detention proved the US-Israel-Europe campaign to terrorise the Islamic Republic into submission, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies in the Assembly of Experts were staking out their limited but important call for changes to Iran's electoral system. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani was away from the main political arena, beginning his five-day trip to Japan (an event which, in itself, deserves attention; what is Larijani hoping to accomplish, not just for his country but for himself?), but his media outlets were not halting their assault on President Ahmadinejad.

And then there were the ripples from Mehdi Karroubi's statement, which made clear that the opposition --- rebuilding, re-assessing --- has not been quieted.

The significance of the Tehran University video is two-fold. On the one hand, it points to rifts within the regime; as Mr Verde has analysed in a separate entry, the vital question, "Who leaked the fotoage?", brings a variety of answers, but all of them point to battles and uncertainties in the Islamic Republic and the inability of the Supreme Leader to resolve them. And on the other hand, its existence --- even if known only to a fraction of the Iranian people at this moment --- is a catalyst for anger and thus renewed determination of those who want justice and responsibility from their Government and system.

And so another day begins. There may not be aftershocks, but there will be more shifts. And it is in the shifts, rather than the drama of earthquakes, that this crisis is playing out.

Comments

[Barry]

Is this "minor" news article a joke - or has the regime really shot itself in the foot bigtime??

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/7293430/Iran-threatens-flight-ban-over-Persian-Gulf-name-row.html

Considering the articles recently that have indicated that Dubai is a "back door" for finance and trade with Iran, now the Regime seems to be saying that no airlines (especially Arab) will be able to fly into or out of Iranian airspace if they do not change their onboard maps to show the Gulf as the "Persian Gulf"!! How would that affect the Iranian economy?? Does this Government/Regime truly have a death wish??

Barry

[Samuel]

It is clear that those "unsettled and angered" by this video were already "angered and unsettled" before the video and would have been "unsettled and angered" even if the video had never been shown. We know the type well, they would have been angered by video of AN drinking a glass of tea.

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

I have to admire the ability to be able to equate a deadly attack on University dormitories to a bit of tea-drinking.

S.

[maliheh]

referring to jundallah alledged chief capture~iranians do not beleive or go by what press tv says ,iran been trying to tie usa with post elections or even the past 30 years ,but yet iran goverment continues to "meddle" in palestine/israel affairs

[Samuel]

Scott,

I think everyone has known about this attack for many months. The greens will try to exploit the video for all they can and that is fine but let there be no doubt that in so doing they will exagerrate their shock for all it is worth.

In the meantime will one hear one Green Leader congratulate the govt. for Rigi's capture? See I think that is a fundamental difference between the sides. Everyone I know despised President Khatami with a passion but they would have congratulated him completely on the capture of an important terrorist threatening the nation, a terrorist who blew up civilians as well as Pasdaran officers.

The Greens will never credit the Supreme Leader with closing a prison or the govt. with capturing a top terrorist or launching an advanced destroyer. In fact any compromise by the govt. will simply be viewed as weakness just as any negative economic news is already cheered by the greenies as another blow to the system.

Has there ever been any recognition from the Greens that the IRI's defense expeditures (building destroyers, planes, tanks etc. domestically) contributes to the economic situation but is nevertheless necessary when facing an enemy that receives over Six Billion dollars in military aid from America per year? The IRI waits years for the S-300's paid in hard cash while the Zionists get their version for free in a matter of weeks.

One wonders whether the Greens would not welcome a Haiti style earthquake as just another excuse to attack the regime's policies, this time over the slow rescue response. And of course another it would provide another rationale for hitting the streets.

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

With respect, I don't think you addressed my point: even though we "knew about this attack for many months", it is significant to see the visual confirmation, given that the Supreme Leader and other officials have downplayed the attack and blamed it on "unknown persons". It is also significant that it comes not from the Greens whom you caricature in your post but from those carrying out the attack on behalf of Islamic Republic officials.

S.

[Barry]

"an encounter between Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and plainclothes officers"

On what basis can it be said that these are "plainclothes officers" . Perhaps they are civilian criminals pretending to have some "authority". There appears to be no due process in Iran - so perhaps they should always be called "unidentified civilians" until identified legally as "Officers".

Barry

[eyewonder]

Unable to understand a word being said in the Faezeh Hashemi video, what is most striking to me is that essentially everyone is videotaping.

This seems very bizarre behavior no matter the "side" or goals of those involved.

[Megan]

Barry,

Serial killers are most fitting name.

[Scott Lucas]

Barry,

Point taken. The label put by activists on this video was "plainclothes officers", but it has not been established. I will modify our update.

S.

[ange paris]

Samuel
your "regime" kill, rape, torture and arrest people in Iran; instead of paying workers ( unpaid wages for months ) they send money to Hezbollahs; people are sad and desperate and there is an oppressed atmospher in Iran; there is price increase day after day, and people can't even eat meat once a week; so all the feats cited on your post are of secondary importance and "we" don't care ! when they would release all the political prisoners and punish all individuals involved in those affairs, "we" will applaud; I will be the first to bow down and say "thank you" !

[Megan]

Slate says " The United States won't bomb Iran, but another country might."

http://www.slate.com/id/2245619/?GT1=38001

[Samuel]

Ange,

Let's say I conceded your point for the sake of argument why would you not be glad that Jundullah's terrorist was captured and why would you not give even a little credit to the govt. that did so. And again why would you not want the country to have a strong defense aside from the politics?

[ange paris]

Samuel
There is no happiness in the country, a strong defense for what ????????????? the first enemies of people are the thugs in the regime, foreign enemy is of secondary importance ! as if you said to anyone who has no longer money :"why you don't buy a car ?"; the answer will be "I have no money to eat !!"

[Catherine]

@ eyewonder post 8
Here's a ytanslation (may not be complete): http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=4168
I also noticed everyone was buzzing about filming - probably to put their own spin on it when they spread the footage.

[Catherine]

Here's a bit of a shock, "The Neda Doctrine" by JOEL POLLAK (who?) :

Excerpts:
The US must commit to a military response in support of UN Security Council resolutions should Iran continue to flout them. The target should be not only Iran's nuclear facilities, but the main political institutions of the regime. We must force Teheran to hide its leaders as carefully as it has hidden its centrifuges, weakening the regime and giving strength to its many opponents.

Extend preemptive support to Israel. The US must commit to supporting Israel in the event that Israel decides to launch a preemptive strike against Iran, as it did against Iraq in 1981. Unlike a defense pact, which would allow Iran to attack before Israel or the US could respond, a preemptive guarantee would take the initiative away from Teheran and make it bear the full consequences of its present actions.

Develop human rights sanctions. Until now, sanctions have focused on the Iranian nuclear program. We need sanctions targeting Iran's abuses of human rights. The US must lead, because the UN Human Rights Council still refuses to act. Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) have introduced legislation providing for human rights sanctions. Passage must become an urgent priority.

The US must assist Iranians in their struggle for freedom. We must help Iranians help themselves by providing alternative media platforms and developing technology that can frustrate the regime's attempts at censorship. We must deny the Iranian government any semblance of legitimacy in international forums, and speak out forcefully at every opportunity on behalf of Iranian freedom.

Full op-ed here:
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?ID=169383

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[Anders ljungberg luleå sweden]

he lies in Europe obstacles are not people to demonstrate our absolute and not the way that some may do it and some can not do it. everyone should be equal regardless of the process of the government or not, and claiming that ordinary people are terrosrister is a lie. but that is how it usually let their pure fiction and nothing else. anyone who knows this regime knows that it is lying propaganda purposes. and that ¨ argue that it was in a great action when it was tusenals people from basj and police on the streets there is only one thing you can call it. a lie

[Adam]

Scott,

Thanks for posting the Ali Chenar quote.
I have been wondering whether the presence of a united opposition movement has caused the regime to re-think certain policies that were antagonizing the general population such as morality police. It is hard for me to imagine that the new political consciousness hasn't had an effect on the interaction between the morality police and the general population, but nobody in media seems to be focusing on things like that right now because they seem small compared to the regime's existential domestic crisis and nuclear program. For a regime that has at least in theory sought uncontested control of the social and economic spheres of life, it is hard to imagine that the political crisis hasn't affected people's willingness to be silent and obedient when their social and economic rights are disrespected. This is part of why I think the increasing labor unrest is a bigger story than anyone is giving it credit for. It is not just an economic story, it reflects a broader shift in expectations among the working population. They are no longer willing to be silent when their economic rights are disrespected by a regime that they all now know lacks popular support and legitimacy.
I also have been puzzled by the perception in western media that Feb 11 was the end of the green movement. Having studied the dissident movements of the Former Soviet Union and eastern Europe, I am surprised when others don't realize that being able to keep protesters off of the streets (which the regime didn't succeed in doing even on Feb 11) is not enough to maintain a dictatorship, particularly one that seeks to control not only the political sphere but also social and economic life (which in my view is the true difference between a conventional dictatorship and totalitarianism).

[Barry]

Re "Larijani in Japan."

This is happening at the same time that Japan has offered to provide enriched Uranium to Iran. Could there be some connection??

Barry

[Barry]

26 now wanted for Dubai assassination!!

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?col=&section=theuae&xfile=data/theuae/2010/February/theuae_February793.xml

Is it just my imagination - or is all getting just a little bit silly??

Raise your hands,all those who have NOT had sex with a well known golfer. Also hands up all those who were not involved in the Dubai assassination.

Barry

[Adam]

Considering that the majority of the Assembly of Experts has ties to Rafsanjani, the green movement, or both, it seems highly likely that Fars News is radically altering the reality of the results of the meeting, as they have with so many stories before. It could even be "tough" posturing to save face in light of real concessions that were made. I'm taking a wait and see attitude on this. I can't imagine that the Rafsanjani-led body is perfectly happy with the status quo.

[Observer]

"I have to admire the ability to be able to equate a deadly attack on University dormitories to a bit of tea-drinking." - S Lucas

Hello, the term for that over here nowadays is 'moral equivalency,' as am sure you know. Ideologues of all stripes use it to slip by nonthinkers as a matter of course.

Not to worry because everything is fine, you see -- apples are the same as oranges, murderers do have the same value to society as those who follow the law. And hardly anyone mentions 'fuzzy thinking.' Ease up -- we humans no longer need to worry with making distinctions.

For example, the US government 'has moved away from the politics of fear,' and a terrorist act is now a 'man-made disaster' -- equivalent to a car pileup, the denuding of world's forests, soil erosion, and so on.

Obviously, logic has nothing to do with it. Perhaps 'spin' does. Thanks for pointing this out in the latest from Samuel. Somebody needs to, every single time ....

[Hossein]

These people are nothing but petty fascists and have little power of reason. They blindly repeat what the evil element in our country is saying and doing. What kind of human being will justify the brutality the rapes the theft of national wealth, etc. etc. We have long understood that it is hopeless to engage any of the petty thugs in any rational debate, it is useless. Let us, however, take a close look at the broader atrocities and that that is what we are now able to carefully document. The day of international tribunals will come. Freedom will reign. Justice will appear and light of truth will prevail. Therein is no doubt!

[Cecil]

@Samuel

"I think everyone has known about this attack for many months."

Yes, the whole world knows this attack on helpless students inside the university dorm. Did the government acknowledge it? No. instead they condone it. They have denied about this and blame it on others. Its only now that this video comes out that confirms everything what happens inside the campus. Is this against the law? YES. and you know who violates the law. This govt is a gross violator of their own laws.

"In the meantime will one hear one Green Leader congratulate the govt. for Rigi’s capture?"

What made you think Green leaders should congratulate the govt. for capturing Rigi? Do you think this govt. deserves any applause because they capture a "terrorist" who fights for their rights? I dont condone their method but at least they have legitimate grievances against the govt. This govt. that you idolize who killed, rape, torture and terrorize their own people are the real terrorist. The Iranian people will applaud if this thugs who are controlling the govt been taken down.

"The Greens will never credit the Supreme Leader with closing a prison or the govt. with capturing a top terrorist or launching an advanced destroyer. In fact any compromise by the govt. will simply be viewed as weakness just as any negative economic news is already cheered by the greenies as another blow to the system."

Why should the Greens give credit to the SL for closing the Karizhak prison? He only did that when the brutality inside this prison has been exposed. So many innocent lives had been lost and tortured inside this prison before and he did nothing to stop it. He's an ineffective leader and a big LIAR like his pet AN.

Economic woes had been caused by the regime's mismanagement. Iran's oil revenue is huge and yet there is a lot of Iranians living below poverty line. How come there is months of unpaid wages for the Iranian laborers and yet give millions and millions of dollars to Hamas and Hesbollah.

"Has there ever been any recognition from the Greens that the IRI’s defense expeditures (building destroyers, planes, tanks etc. domestically) contributes to the economic situation but is nevertheless necessary when facing an enemy that receives over Six Billion dollars in military aid from America per year?"

Defence for what??? (quoting Angieparis). They are bulding and making their own enemies. Why spending too much on defence expenditures and not paying their employees, is this a sign of good economy for you? I think you are blinded by your revolutionary ideals.

Samuel, I think you are in the wrong side of history. Please refresh your mind. Maybe you can see how corrupt, ineffecient and barbaric this criminal regime that you are trying to protect...