The Latest from Iran (24 February): Shocks and Erosions

2100 GMT: Law and Order Story of the Week. After the court session for Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan, the newspaper's journalist Payam Fazli-Nejad was reportedly "heavily beaten, barely escaping his death", and Ahmadinejad right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has become "mamnou ol-tasvir" (his photos forbidden) on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

An Iranian activist today is adding that the weapon used on Fazli-Nejad was a "dessert knife".

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rafsanjani’s Daughter is Confronted
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
Iran Document: Karroubi Statement on 22 Bahman & The Way Forward (22 February)
UPDATED Iran 18-Minute Video: Attack on Tehran University Dormitories (14/15 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (23 February): Videoing the Attacks

2040 GMT: War on Terror, I Tell You. I'm sure it is entirely coincidental in light of current events --- announcement of arrest of Jundullah leader a week after it occurred, Ahmadinejad declaring that it is Iran not "the West" that is fighting terrorism (1745 GMT), declaration of 100 arrested on 22 Bahman as "terrorists" (1435 GMT) --- but this just in from the Ministry of Intelligence:

Three agents of the [Kurdish] Komala terrorist group who were planning to bomb a factory belonging to the defence ministry in Tehran were identified and arrested....Two foreign made bombs concealed in loudspeakers and three Kalashnikovs (assault rifles) were seized....Due to the occupying presence of the US forces in Iraq and their support of some terrorist groups like Komala, their training, and equipping them with military hardware is carried out by America's intelligence services.

1940 GMT: Urgent --- Assembly of Experts Statement. Fars News reports, and Zamaaneh summarises, that the statement at the end of the two-day Assembly meeting has not only declared support for the Supreme Leader (expected) but declared that the opportunity for the "repent and reform" of opposition leaders has ended (unexpected). This "sedition" against the "intelligence guidance" of Ayatollah Khamenei can no longer be tolerated.

1920 GMT: Is This the Level of Ahmadinejad's Support? Claimed video from Birjand in south Khorasan (eastern Iran) for the President's speech today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRAdgALdStI[/youtube]

1910 GMT: Defending Against the Video. The Los Angeles Times, drawing from Iranian state media (see 0645 GMT) has a summary of damage control from regime officials:

"Today, police are powerful, popular, courageous and reasonable," Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, told police commanders...."Everywhere in the world, even in Europe and America, police strongly confront rioters. No government tolerates insecurity, arson and vandalizing of public properties."....

"All detention centers, interrogation rooms and reformatories have been ordered to install surveillance cameras and monitoring equipment," [Iran's police chief Gen. Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam] said. "Police inspectors will regularly visit the detention centers. Police are also setting up a committee to protect civil rights in detention centers."....

"Even when a European city hosts a summit, the city is militarized," said Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani, commander of the Tehran Revolutionary Guards. "How can we turn a blind eye to people's security?"

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner News (cont.). Iranian authorities have issued temporary release orders for Ebrahim Yazdi, head of the Freedom Movement of Iran, and Hedayat Aghai, of the Kargozaran Party, today.

The case of Yazdi, who has been released for 10 days, is still being considered; however, Aghai, freed released tomorrow for a week, has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison.

It is also reported that Feizollah Arabsorkhi, executive member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has been sentenced to six years in prison for “activities against national security and propaganda against the regime”.

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner News. The Iranian Supreme Court has commuted the death sentence of Kurdish journalist Adnan Hassanpour, who has been jailed since 2007 for mohareb (war against God). Adnanpour will now serve a 31-year prison term.

1840 GMT: The wife of Mohammad Maleki, the first post-1979 chancellor of Tehran Revolution, has spoken to Radio Farda of her husband's deteriorating health. The 76-year-old Maleki, who was detained in August and charged in September with actions against national security, suffers from prostate cancer.

Ghodsi Mirmoez said her husband sounded very ill the last time they spoke and that she had not been allowed to meet him for more than 20 days. She pleaded, "I wonder if international organizations can do anything for my husband. His physical condition is grave."

1805 GMT: Not Defeated. Writing for Tehran Bureau, Ali Chenar in Tehran reflects on the politics of 22 Bahman and its aftermath and concludes:

Certainly one of the questions about the Green Movement is why it has remained a grassroots movement and not become a political organization. One reason might be that it does not care to become identified with a specific ideology and risk alienating various segments of the society whose support it currently enjoys. In the past eight months it has instead walked a fine line, remaining a popular but amorphous phenomenon, encompassing all political factions and social groups seeking justice. It has avoided intensifying the conflict, avoided pressing for regime change. Rather than evolving, it has maintained a state of entropy. Yet over the past several months, its inclusive nature has helped it sustain its momentum and survive.

What the Green Movement has achieved already is enormous. Many would tell you that the events of the past eight months have permanently changed the social and political landscape. A new era has begun. Those groups critical of the government now map the very fabric of Iranian society. They include both traditional conservatives and secular liberals, progressive students and cautious businessmen, men and women alike. As one observer told this correspondent, "Everyone has realized that everyone else thinks the emperor is naked too."

1745 GMT: It's Our "War on Terror" Now. President Ahmadinejad neatly twinned the "terrorism" and "Iran v. the West" themes in his speech today in Khorasan in eastern Iran. "Why have you [in the US] issued a passport for Rigi if you want to arrest a terrorist?....The Iranian security forces captured Rigi without any bloodshed. It is better for these countries to adopt the Iranian model of campaigning against terrorism."

1435 GMT: The Big "Terrorist" Push. Ahh, here we go. In the same week that Iranian authorities trumpet the capture of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Hamadani declares that security forces arrested about 100 members of dissident groups on 11 February. He asserts that they are members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and Association of Iranian Monarchists and intended to carry out “bombings and assassinations”.

1355  GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On a very slow day for news, we have noted the account by blogger and journalist Zhila Baniyaghoub, posted by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, about the detention of her husband, "Bahman Amouei", and others in Evin Prison. Amouei is among the hundreds of journalists and activists arrested in the postelection crackdown:

Bahman says he, along with 40 others are imprisoned in a cell less than 20 meters square. He says their whole day is wasted in lines; queuing for the toilet, queuing for the showers, and queuing for the telephone....

Their condition is so harsh that he envies Masud and Ahmad, who got transferred to the Rajai Shahr prison. They would at least be able to spread their legs.

I asked if he read books there. He retorted with another question, "Do you think it's possible to read in such conditions?"

0925 GMT: We've posted a four-minute video, circulating widely on the Internet, and translation of an encounter between Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and an unidentified group of men.

0910 GMT: Larijani in Japan. No surprise that the Speaker of the Parliament would make headlines in Iranian state media, as he begins his 5-day trip in the Far East, for a nuclear declaration: "Although the Islamic Republic has remained committed to its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the agency does not fulfill its duties about supplying fuel needed for the Tehran research reactor. Based on terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the IAEA has no right to urge Iran to suspend its nuclear activities."

0800 GMT: Full credit to CNN for highlighting the role of social media in disseminating the post-election news about events in Iran, featuring activists such as "OxfordGirl".

Shame, however, that the report closed with a soundbite reduction of the events of 22 Bahman: "while activism on-line was successful in organising the masses and keeping opposition alive, the opposition inside the country either did not plan for or now lacks the power to respond to the Government's crackdown". (No doubt that social media can soon put that right.)

0755 GMT: Firebreak. Amidst the drumbeat in parts of the US media for military action against Tehran (see our entry yesterday on The Washington Post), some Obama Administration officials are holding the line against an attack. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, repeated yesterday, "I worry a lot about the unintended consequences of any sort of military action. For now, the diplomatic and the economic levers of international power are, and ought to be, the levers first pulled."

0745 GMT: And the (Jundullah) Beat Goes On. Press TV tries once more to drive home the right message, "Iran says it has irrefutable evidence confirming that terrorist ringleader Abdolmalek Rigi had been aided and abetted by the US government before his arrest."

On the side, however, it is interesting how state media's narrative is changing. Initially, Rigi was taken in Dubai as he was awaiting the departure of his plane. Or he was captured in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Or he was seized in Pakistan. Now "the leader of the Jundallah terrorist group was on a flight from the United Arab Emirates to Kyrgyzstan when he was tracked down by Iranian security forces on Tuesday".

All especially interesting, in fact, because an EA source continues to report that Rigi was actually detained last week. (Al Jazeera is also reporting this from its sources.)

0645 GMT: At one point on Tuesday it felt as if EA staff were trying to measure an earthquake that had taken place in a remote area. We all had seen and been taken aback by the 18-minute video of the 15 June attack on Tehran University's dormitories, but we did not know how many people inside Iran had viewed or knew of the footage.

We did know, from one of our correspondents with excellent contacts in Iran, that the BBC Persian broadcast which first displayed extracts from the video had been viewed and that those who had seen it had been unsettled and angered. And this morning, we have confirmation that the footage has shaken the political ground: Fars News has posted a long article trying to put the imagery in the "proper" context.

The impact of earthquakes is not necessarily that they bring a collapse, however; they can have longer-term effects by eroding and thus changing the landscape. So Tuesday was also a case of challengers chipping away at the Ahmadinejad Government, even as the regime was trying to manufacture its own earthquake with the propaganda around the capture of Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

While Ministers used press conference to announce that Rigi's detention proved the US-Israel-Europe campaign to terrorise the Islamic Republic into submission, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies in the Assembly of Experts were staking out their limited but important call for changes to Iran's electoral system. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani was away from the main political arena, beginning his five-day trip to Japan (an event which, in itself, deserves attention; what is Larijani hoping to accomplish, not just for his country but for himself?), but his media outlets were not halting their assault on President Ahmadinejad.

And then there were the ripples from Mehdi Karroubi's statement, which made clear that the opposition --- rebuilding, re-assessing --- has not been quieted.

The significance of the Tehran University video is two-fold. On the one hand, it points to rifts within the regime; as Mr Verde has analysed in a separate entry, the vital question, "Who leaked the fotoage?", brings a variety of answers, but all of them point to battles and uncertainties in the Islamic Republic and the inability of the Supreme Leader to resolve them. And on the other hand, its existence --- even if known only to a fraction of the Iranian people at this moment --- is a catalyst for anger and thus renewed determination of those who want justice and responsibility from their Government and system.

And so another day begins. There may not be aftershocks, but there will be more shifts. And it is in the shifts, rather than the drama of earthquakes, that this crisis is playing out.

Comments

[Barry]

"Has there ever been any recognition from the Greens that the IRI’s defense expeditures (building destroyers,"

As an ex-navy man myself - I would just hate to be a sailor serving on this new Iranian Jamaran Destroyer, in the event of any US/Israeli/Arab conflict with Iran . It would attract attacks like bees to a honey pot - nothing would be sweeter for attacking pilots.

Barry

[Greeny]

Adam,

Re. post 22: “Considering that the majority of the Assembly of Experts has ties to Rafsanjani, the green movement...”

Candidates for the Assembly are first filters by the Guardians Council. That has 12 members. Six are directly appointed by SL. And the other six are nominated by the Judiciary Head (who is directly appointed by SL) and are voted on by the parliament (whose members are first passed through the Guardian Council filter). It’s basically a closed loop allowing SL to control all the important institutions, even the one which is supposed to oversee him.

[Arshama]

@ 1445 Sistan and Baluchestan / Rigi

To all those blindly boasting of this regime, I recommend this short notice by Parviz Piran, « Poverty Alleviation in Sistan & Baluchestan: The Case of Shirabad »
http://abstractairanica.revues.org/document1729.html

I have been in the area somewhat earlier, and it grieved me to see whole villages deserted because of a heavy drought, which had struck Sistan and Baluchistan for at least 4 years. Those poor villagers had no one to help them, being forced to earn a living as day labourers, wandering around from town to town with the whole family.
And on the other hand you have that IRGC commander, who had built himself an economic empire with everything from mining companies to tourist agencies.
Whose property did he dare to rob away by the force of his thugs and machine guns, if not these poor peasants' one?

[Barry]

"Curiouser and curiouser" - just like in ALICE IN WONDERLAND

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/meir-javedanfar/is-the-mossad-using-iran_b_474641.html

Barry

[Barry]

And now, the Dubai Police Chief has apparently "gone to Mecca on pilgrimage"

[Hossein]

Arshama, Ange and all are correct. This fellow as I indicated does not deserve our reply. No one should congratulate the rapist regime of petty fascist thugs in any way. I, too, have gone to Sistan and Baluchestan, and I have seen the intense poverty of towns and villages there, and I have witnessed first hand how the IRGC abuse even the poorest and the most destitute. No one should congratulate the IG for their conduct, I may or may not agree with Rigi's methods, but I certainly uphold his right to defend his people against this fascist evil state, and his attempts to curtail the abuses of the IRGC is heroic. There are fundamental issues here relating to the principle rights of humans against all despotic conduct, and the desperate, poor, and abused people of the region have rights. Let us recognize their rights and let us inform the world how the thugs have brought about death and destruction and poverty—incredible abject poverty—to the people of Sistan and Baluchestan (other places too of course). Shame on anyone who fails to recognize the suffering of others. Let be, on a positive note, bring to your attention that our mythos cries out good tidings of a time when the evil Zahhak will be brought to justice. I live for that day, I long for it, and I know it is coming. In the meanwhile we have a moral responsibility to humanity to expose the dark forces of this rapist torturing regime of thieves and petty fascist thugs. FREEDOM!

[Adam]

Greeny,

You are right, I stand corrected. I was thinking of the Expediency Council, of which President-elect Mir Hossein Mousavi himself is a member. Now wouldn't THAT meeting be some fireworks, ;)

[ange paris]

Samuel is a very well-educated guy with a huge knowledge; iranian regime can put non educated people to sleep and unfortunately for them there are not too many in our country ( one of the "credit" of IR which works against them); I bet with everyone that one day Samuel will belong to our group and he will be welcomed :-) ; samuel, isn't it true what I say ?

[Greeny]

Adam,

Re. post 32: “I was thinking of the Expediency Council, of which President-elect Mir Hossein Mousavi himself is a member.”

The Expediency Council has two types of members. Some are members because of their positions (for example the head of the three branches of government, executive, judiciary and Legislative, also Mejles elects it own representatives to the Council from its members). Others are appointed directly by the SL. Usually former high ranking officials are appointed to the Council by the SL (as a sort of elder statesman). Mousavi, as a former PM is appointed to the Council by SL.

The Council has two major roles.
One is to adjudicate between the Majles and the Council of Guardians: if the Guardians overrule a Majles legislation and the Majles stands by it, the legislation is sent to the Expediency Council. If the Expediency council passed it, it becomes law. It can make its own changes to the legislation if it wants.
Its other function is to advise the SL. Sometimes the SL passes certain things to it for its opinion, which will then be sent back to the SL as advice (there is no power of action here).

For many years now it is reported that Mousavi does not attend the Council meetings.

The Council has had regular meetings since the election in June. Ahmadinejad is not attending these meetings since the elections.

I wouldn’t expect the Council to make any dramatic moves. Firstly, by its nature it cannot make dramatic moves. Secondly, its make up does not allow it to make any dramatic moves (you can’t expect the senior politicians and other officials who are actually in charge to make a dramatic move against what they themselves are doing). Thirdly, since the June elections, we are witnessing a (at times maybe slow but) steady shifting of the balance of power in Iran. As a result of this, the traditional clergy are losing their preeminent position. Instead the influence of military and intelligence communities is increasing (divisions are starting to show up within the military and intelligence people too, but let’s leave that to a side for now). On the other side, the reformist politicians are losing their influence. And in their place the influence of public opinion and pressure from the ordinary people is increasing.

As a result, even the SL does not have the scope for manoeuvre that he had before the elections. Even if the Expediency Council wanted to influence the SL, and even if SL was to listen to its advice (two very big ifs here), the SL is very limited in what he can do. He has to take very seriously what the military and intelligence people tell him. He depends on them these days more than he does on everything else put together. He is stuck with them. It is either them or loss of influence with the IR, or possibly removal from power (with serious consequences for people around him, if not himself).