The Latest from Iran (2 February): A Quiet Start to An Unquiet Day

2150 GMT: A Final Note. We'll know more tomorrow, after Iranian state media kicks into high gear, but the Ahmadinejad statement on the nuclear talks --- which had effectively gone into the freezer --- could be big. All of a sudden, the move of Iran's uranium stock outside the country is A-OK: "If we allow them to take it, there is no problem. We sign a contract to give 3.5 percent enriched uranium and receive 20 percent enriched one after four or five months."

But --- and watch this, because it will probably be missed by Western media more concerned with the West-Iran dynamic --- Ahmadinejad may have re-opened a fight with Iran's "conservatives" over his nuclear strategy. As the Associated Press notes, "He dismissed concerns by what he called 'colleagues' that the West would not return the uranium."

More tomorrow.....

NEW Iran Document: The Rallying Call of Mousavi’s 14 Points (2 February)
NEW Iran Letter: Journalist Emadeddin Baghi in Prison
NEW Iran Document: Khatami Statement on Rights and Protests (1 February)
Latest Iran Video: Sunday Boxing – French Police v. Iranian Ambassador (31 January)
Iran Football Special: Green Movement Shoots! It Scores!
NEW Latest Iran Video: Foreign Minister Mottaki on Elections & Protests (31 January)
The Latest from Iran (1 February): The Anniversary Begins

2135 GMT: Hamlet and 22 Bahman. Let's close tonight on a high literary note.

Rah-e-Sabz, unsurprisingly, is jabbing away at the Government. For example, it is claiming that the Revolutionary Court has stepped back in its latest bulletin by not connecting the two executions last week to the post-election demonstrations. However, its cheekiest story is a summary of Seyed Hassan Khomeini's supposed comments as he cold-shouldered President Ahmadinejad yesterday: "To be or not to be a protester, that is the question."

2130 GMT: Another release. Journalist Mostafa Izadi, arrested on Ashura, has been freed after 34 days in solitary confinement.

2105 GMT: Missing the Point. Almost all Western media have picked up on one of today's big events, the statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Unfortunately, not all have realised the significance of Mousavi's resolute call to arms against the Government of "dictatorship and tyranny" for the rallies on 22 Bahman. The Associated Press mis-reads, and The Washington Post prints the mis-reading without question:

Iran's opposition leader appealed to his supporters and other anti-government activists Tuesday not to overstep the law in pressing for political and social changes....His comments also expose the range of separate and sometimes conflicting aims within the opposition camp.

2100 GMT: Protests and Releases. For the fourth night in a row, hundreds have gathered in front of Evin Prison, and for the fourth night, detainees have been freed. About 20 joined the crowd this evening.

2050 GMT: Correction. Big Correction. That's not just an Ahmadinejad posture (2020 GMT) over the nuclear talks. It appears to be a concession: according to Reuters, the President said, "We have no problem sending our enriched uranium abroad."

2040 GMT: More Invites to the Rally. The reformist Association of Combatant Clergy, calling for an acceptance of people's rule, has asked Iranians to take to the streets on 22 Bahman.

2020 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, it appears that, while Iran heats up, President Ahmadinejad is still playing the international field. First, he used a meeting with the Qatari Crown Prince to strike a pose, “The Westerners cannot bear the thought of security and solidarity among regional countries. They have survived largely by sowing discord and inciting instability in the region.”

Then, perhaps more significantly, Ahmadinejad used an interview on national television tonight to keep open the prospect of a deal on Iran's nuclear programme, offering assurances that a "swap" of 20% uranium for Iran's 3.5% stock inside the country "would be properly and fully implemented".

Ahmadinejad also said that there were discussions for a swap of jailed Iranians for three US citizens detained in August after crossing into Iran from northern Iraq.

2010 GMT: Clerical Challenge. Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, meeting members of the Islamic Association of Students at Tehran University, has criticised those who “introduce their false interpretation as the religion while seeking a specific political goal”, pointedly turning the regime's charges of "mohareb" against it: “The enemy of God (mohareb) is the one who kills and butchers people, not the protester with empty hands.”

Bayat Zanjani continued, “In the Islamic Republic we say one with a question is free to ask his/her question, he/she should not be called an Enemy of God over a question, criticism, or even protest.” However, “those who use the public podiums for terrorising, threatening, and unfortunately a platform for giving untrue and self-established definitions of the Shia’s teachings, are far from the religion of Mohammad (the Prophet) and Ali (the first Imam of Shi'a) and all they do is to feed their false interpretations to the public.”

1830 GMT: Arrests (cont.). It is reported that Ali Mohammad Eslampour, journalist and chief editor of Navay-e Vaght in Kermanshah, has been arrested.

1720 GMT: Arrests. Rah-e-Sabz reports that four members of Tehran University's Islamic Students Association have been arrested. We published three of the names earlier today (1320 GMT).

1715 GMT: Thanks to an EA correspondent, we're posting the 14 headline points of today's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1645 GMT: As an EA reader has noted in comments, the website Radio Zameneh is back on-line after a recent cyber-attack.

1637 GMT: You Know the EA All Is Well Trophy Video, Right? Well, today's winner is the Supreme Leader, who tells a group of Tehran University professors: "I'm optimistic. Recent bitter events were the result of ignorance."

1633 GMT: On the Plus Side. We're still waiting for the English translation of the Mousavi statement, but it is now getting attention in newspapers such as The Wall Street Journal and the BBC.

1630 GMT: Journalistic Idiocy Awards (US Section). It is one of the wonders of American political culture that anyone gives a moment of attention to Daniel Pipes. (I could explain why, but this would take me beyond professional decency.)

So here's a moment of attention to Pipes' latest wisdom before running away: "How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran".

1620 GMT: Journalistic Idiocy Awards (Iran Section). Javan, the newspaper linked to the Revolutionary Guard, claims that the opposition is paying $100 to people to protest on 11 February.

1340 GMT: Worst Prediction for 22 Bahman. Retired US Navy Captain and "Fox News military analyst" Chuck Nash says, with a straight face, that President Ahmadinejad may test a nuclear device on 11 February.

1335 GMT: Interesting Clues in the "West". Lindsay Hilsum, of Britain's Channel 4, offers some interesting teasers on US and European policy from a gathering at Chatham House in London:

Last night, I went to a discussion on Iran. “Chatham House rules” mean I can’t quote anyone who was there, but the highlights are worth noting.

Someone who is well in with the Obama administration told us that when the president started his “hand outstretched” policy towards Iran it was “100 per cent about the nuclear and external policy and zero per cent about Iran’s internal issues.”

After 12 June, and the turbulent post-election crisis, there’s been some recalibration – he’d now put it at 70/30....

Another [source] (close to a European government) said: “We must ensure we do no harm. This is not our moment, and not our movement. But we must ensure the opposition is not subjugated to the nuclear issue or business interests.”

1330 GMT: Slowing Down the Net. I'll leave others to speculate on significance of this report: Internet traffic for some servers in Iran has ceased; for others it is reduced.

1320 GMT: Arrests and Sentences. Reports --- student activists Vahid Abedini, Navid Abedini, and Esmail Izadi have been detained after their houses were raided. Journalist Niloofar Laripour has been arrested after being summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence.

Journalist Keyvan Samimi has been sentenced to six years in prison, with a lifetime ban on political activity.

1315 GMT: We're Going to Get You, Hashemi. That threat against Hashemi Rafsanjani, sending the files of his children to court (see 0945 GMT)? It came from the same man who declared today We Will Kill the Detainees (1025 GMT), deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi.

1310 GMT: It is reported that the second court session for the 16 Ashura protesters, whose trial began on Saturday, will be held Wednesday. Five of the defendants, including two women, are charged with "mohareb" (war against God).

1025 GMT: Battling over Executions. Hours after the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, said he would not be pushed by "hard-liners" into quicker executions and would follow the legal process, his deputy has reportedly assured, We're Going to Kill Them.

Fars quotes Ebrahim Raeesi in a meeting in Qom, "The two people executed (Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour) and another nine who will soon be executed were definitely arrested in recent riots and each was linked with counter-revolutionary movements. They had participated in riots with the aim of creating disunity and toppling the system."

1020 GMT: Mohammad Ali Rafi'i, a member of political department of the Islamic Students Organization, has reportedly been abducted when leaving Tehran University. Peyke Iran also claims pressure on detained students to confess on television.

0945 GMT: Pressuring Rafsanjani. It appears the regime just does not trust Hashemi Rafsanjani enough to let him be: files on the investigation of his children, including Mehdi Hashemi, have been presented to a Tehran court.

(There is a hot Internet rumour that at least one of Rafsanjani's children will be marching on 22 Bahman. Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, has been involved in demonstrations since June.)

0940 GMT: Kayhan London (not to be confused with the "hard-line" Kayhan in Tehran) has now come out behind the leadership of the Green movement, while stressing it contains other political currents, and defended Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi against the attacks of those who condemn them of loyalty to the Islamic Republic.

0935 GMT: Ruining the Revolution. Agence France Presse and Reuters have both picked up on Mir Hossein Mousavi's declaration (see 0710 GMT), and it loses none of its force in translation. Mousavi claims the goals of the 1979 Revolution have not been fulfilled because the "roots of tyranny and dictatorship" still exist; Mousavi no longer believes "that the revolution had removed all those structures which could lead to totalitarianism and dictatorship":

Today, one can identify both elements and foundations which produce dictatorship as well as resistance against returning to this dictatorship Stifling the media, filling the prisons and brutally killing people who peacefully demand their rights in the streets indicate the roots of tyranny and dictatorship remain from the monarchist era... I don't believe that the revolution achieved its goals.

0825 GMT: Yahoo Keeps Mowj-e-Sabz Off-Line? In December, Mowj-e-Sabz, the key Green movement website, was knocked off-line by a cyber-attack. Those behind the site said at the time that they were suspending operations but intended to resume their journalism.

This now in from blogger Ethan Zuckerman:

I’ve been in regular contact with the administrators of Mowjcamp as they’ve tried to regain control of their site. For six weeks, they’ve been getting the runaround from Yahoo! (where they’d originally registered the domain names) and Moniker (where the hackers moved control of the domain name). Yahoo has been informed that the site was illegally moved by hackers who managed to access a Yahoo Mail account and authorize a transfer to Moniker – they’ve told the site administrators that there’s nothing they can do, and the problem’s in Moniker’s hands. Moniker, in turn, tells the administrators that they’ve responded to Yahoo, which will resolve their problem. In the meantime, the site continues to be inaccessible from the URLs by which it is most widely known.

0805 GMT: With the help of EA readers, we have posted an English translation of a letter we have received from Tehran, "Journalist Emadeddin Baghi in Prison".

0745 GMT: "A New Kind of Revolution". Setareh Sabety in Iranian.com:

[This] is the first revolution that does not need leadership nor ideology because it is fueled by a basic, unrelenting need for freedom and justice that is so strong it is self-correcting and self-propelling! This is not just a civil rights movement; this is not merely a reform movement. This is a new kind of Revolution.

0710 GMT: Quiet No Longer. Today's first big move has come from Mir Hossein Mousavi, answering 10 questions on his website Kalemeh. Among his forthright declarations: "We have lost complete hope in the judiciary system"; "Resistance to dictatorship is the precious heritage of the Islamic Revolution"; "People have always wanted justice; the demand for freedom is born of human thought".

0705 GMT: On the Economic Front. Iran's oil and gas revenue fell more than 45 percent in the first half of the current Iranian year (March-September 2009) compared to the same period in 2008.

0700 GMT: Looking for the Positive. About 1000 family members of detainees and supporters gathered again in front of Evin Prison last night. Almost 30 prisoners were reportedly released.

Amongst those freed was Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, released on bail after his detention last month.

0650 GMT: And Those Who Have Been "Disappeared". Photographer Mehraneh Atashi and her husband Madjid Ghaffari were arrested on 12 January and detained, apparently in solitary confinement in ward 209 of Evin Prison. Authorities have released no information about charges against them. They have had no access to a lawyer, no visits from their family, and no contact apart from a brief telephone call to say they had been arrested.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has raised the situation of Atashi and Ghaffari as a case typical of "hundreds" of Iranians in the post-election conflict.

0640 GMT: The Detentions. Fereshteh Ghazi complements our morning analysis of "threats and arrests" with a summary of the current situation of political prisoners, focusing on the attempt to break advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0630 GMT: Three prominent Iranian authors have been arrested: Reza Khandan, Omid Montazeri, and Alireza Saqafi.

0620 GMT: So the big news from the 1st day of the commemorations of the 1979 Islamic Revolution? There was no big news.

Perhaps the most notable development was former President Mohammad Khatami joining the calls, albeit implicitly, for people to rally on 22 Bahman on 11 February (see separate entry). On the regime side, however, there were no big declarations, no mass gatherings, merely a rather muted ceremony at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery and President Ahmadinejad's strained appearance at the Khomeini memorial.

Government actions were more of the "negative" kind, with scattered threats and arrests. The strategy of trying to wipe out public protests continues, but even that appears to be filled with tension as the big day approaches.

22 Bahman is a week on Thursday.