Russia and Belarus: Solving the Dispute over Oil Supply

After a two-month dispute, Russia and Belarus have finally confirmed a deal on energy supplies, agreed to several points on oil transportation and pricing as well as security.

Belarus has an important geopolitical location for the transportation of oil from Russia to Europe, bringing in significant income. The dispute arose over a Russian demand that Belarus pay import duties. In response, Belarus threatened to cut off electiricity to Russia’s certain regions and demanded 30 metric tons of oil duty-free.

Belarus has given way, accepting Russian demands. The agreement should provide uninterrupted oil transit to Europe, preventing a repeat of a 2007 dispute that disrupted supplies to Poland and Germany.

The broader question remains, however. Will Russia play the "trump card" of energy supplies to extract further advantage from Europe and, if so, will Europe show a poker face in reply?