Israel-Syria: Will Their Tensions Lead to War in Lebanon?

After the exchange of threatening statements between Israeli and Syrian officials this week, Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman continued his bombardment in an interview with Israel's Channel 2 news:

I don't work for the media or for public opinion. My response, which was made to clarify that the situation is unacceptable, was immediately met with hysteria in Israel: 'How dare we annoy the tyrant?' I am sorry about this habit of the left in Israel. I think that in the Middle East serious things should not be left unanswered.

Israel & Syria: Different Political Calculations, Different Conclusions

On Saturday, Saudi daily Al-Okaz reported, from senior Lebanese sources, that Hezbollah has announced emergency readiness because of the possibility of an Israeli operation amidst the growing tensions between Syria and Israel.

The official Syrian newspaper Tishreen said that "whichever path Israel chooses, it will find Syria prepared for either peace or war". In Israel, Haaretz's Aluf Benn warned that the continuing tension will draw Israel and Syria to a war in the region.

Israel: Army Commander Undermines Claims on "Proper Conduct" in Gaza War

With two Israeli army officers, "disciplined" for firing artillery shells towards a densely-populated area near a UN compound, still not facing a criminal investigation by the Israeli Defense Forces, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon confirmed on Thursday that he had received a full internal report from the Israelis.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Friday:

This document completely expresses Israel's commitment to conduct an honest internal probe according to the standards of international law. Despite the difficult conditions of fighting against Hamas terror, Israel has stringently abided by international norms and will continue to do in the future - though our foremost obligation is to protect our citizens.

However, The Independent of London reported a confession from a high-ranking Israeli official who talked to Israel's Yedhiot Ahronot. The officer said that the Israeli army went beyond its previous rules of engagement, concerning the protection of civilian lives, to minimise military casualties during the Operation Cast Lead. The senior commander said:

Means and intentions is a definition that suits an arrest operation in the Judaea and Samaria [West Bank] area... We need to be very careful because the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] was already burnt in the second Lebanon war from the wrong terminology. The concept of means and intentions is taken from different circumstances. Here [in Cast Lead] we were not talking about another regular counter-terrorist operation. There is a clear difference.

According to the newspaper, a more junior officer who served during the operation described the new policy as one of "literally zero risk to the soldiers" as a part of the policy to avoid the heavy military casualties of the 2006 Lebanon war.

Today on EA - 5 February 2010

Iran: We wonder whether Iran is entering a tunnel in the run-up to 22  Bahman (11 February, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution) with an escalation of arrests and reports of detentions of family members of activists. Persian2English has posted a list of 56 political prisoners at risk of execution. At Friday prayers Ayatollah Kashani repeated his "unveiled threat" to protesters not to ruin 22 Bahman "for the rest of us".

Persian2English reported that more than a thousand relatives of detainees gathered outside Evin Prison to commemorate Arbaeen, the 40th day of mourning after the religious occasion of Ashura. Demonstrators offered prayers and chanted “Allahu Akhbar (God is great)”.

The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written to the head of Iran Broadcasting to complain about the “censoring” of his grandfather’s speech. Ayatollah Khomeini’s words have allegedly been adjusted to present a more favourable view of the Government in the run-up to the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution.

Two high profile detainees (Hassan Rassouli and Abolfazl Ghadiani) were released on Thursday night on bail.

Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has issued a statement demanding the freeing of all political prisoners before 22 Bahman.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband has issued a forceful statement on his blog on the post-election crisis, supporting protesters' calls for human rights, democracy and the fundamental freedoms which "are not western prerogatives, but universal rights to which we are all entitled".

We have new claimed video of protests in the southern city of Lars from Monday to Thursday.

Although one website (the students at Amir Kabir University) remains down,  a new Green website Mizan Khabar, has been launched.

An Italian company has announced it will cease trading with Iran. We note with derision one American commentator's agitated video "rant" about Iran's rocket launch.  Another video post shows the damage and injuries caused during the siege at Qoba Mosque in Shiraz yesterday.

All the latest news, with links to our stories and other news media sites, can be found in our live weblog.

Afghanistan: We've posted Anand Gopal's moving article for TomDispatch, which tells the story of a young government employee to open eyes to America's secret prisons in Afghanistan.

Israel and Syria: Israeli and Syrian officials have issued conflicting statements on the chances of an immediate peace between the two countries.

Israel & Syria: Different Political Calculations, Different Conclusions

On Monday, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak tried to underline the significance of an immediate peace with Syria:

In the absence of a deal with Syria we could reach an armed conflict that could develop into a full-fledged war. As is in the Middle East, immediately after the war we will sit down and negotiate exactly what we have been talking about for the past 15 years.

On Tuesday night, Barak continued his warnings, but this time he emphasized the importance of peace on the West Bank, since failure to reach an agreement with the Palestinians would leave either a state with no Jewish ­majority or an apartheid regime:

As long as in this territory west of the Jordan river there is only one political entity called Israel it is going to be either non-Jewish, or non-democratic. If this bloc of millions of ­Palestinians cannot vote, that will be an apartheid state.

However, the response from Damascus was not what Tel Aviv wanted to hear.


Late Tuesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem accused Tel Aviv of  "planting the seeds of war in the region" and warned Israeli officials to "stop playing the role of thugs in the Middle East". He continued:

One day you threaten Gaza, next day you threaten Lebanon, later Iran and now Syria.

Don't test, you Israelis, the determination of Syria. You know that war this time would move to your cities. Come to your senses and choose the road of peace. This path is clear.

Then, Moallem emphasized the possibility of a war in the "south of Lebanon". He said, "No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt --- and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion --- I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria."

The response from Damascus comes as Washington appoints diplomat Robert Ford as the first US Ambassador to Syria since 2005. With this favourable wind, Syria has played the more confident party whose demand/pre-condition is the withdrawal of the Israeli presence from the Golan Heights. At a time of stalled indirect talks, it appears that the Syrian Government has decided to ratchet up criticism of Israel. Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Wednesday that Israel is not serious about its intentions to make peace with Damascus as evidenced by "its conduct which is leading the region to war".

In return, the Foreign Ministry of Israel kicked back with a far different tone from that of Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman jumped in:

Assad should know that if he attacks, he will not only lose the war. Neither he nor his family will remain in power.

Our message should be that if Assad's father lost a war but remained in power, the son should know that an attack would cost him his regime. This is the message that must be conveyed to the Syrian leader by Israel.

At the end of the day, Assad's and Moallem's aggressive statements found their double in the Israeli Government. It was not difficult for Lieberman to embed Damascus's recent statements into a security approach that rests on the existence of an "evil". He said:

Whoever thinks territorial concessions will disconnect Syria from the axis of evil is mistaken. Syria must be made to understand that it has to relinquish its demand for the Golan Heights.

Israel-US: Ayalon vs. Livni on Future of the "Special Relationship"

Earlier this week Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon declared that Israel's relations with the United States have "never been better", adding that the ties between the allies go well beyond dealing with the Middle East conflict:

What makes the U.S. special is the fact that it has maintained its good relations with Israel over the years. Its support is not based on the financial pockets of the Arab states.

Everyone is waiting for the Palestinians to come to the negotiating table.

Palestine Special: All Along Israel’s West Bank Watchtower

Not so fast, replied opposition leader Tzipi Livni. She warned the Israeli leadership that the US support should not be taken as granted and then launched into criticism of the Netanyahu Government:

Israel is a state that is threatened in its very neighborhood. Every blow to our relationship with the U.S. can create wide-ranging strategic problems.

The Israeli leadership doesn't understand Israeli interests. We cannot expect the U.S. to defend our interests where this lack of understanding exists. Israel can't request help from the U.S. without giving it the proper tools to do this while facing the international community.