Iran Snap Analysis: Is Supreme Leader Throwing Rafsanjani Under the Bus?

Cartoon by Nikahang KowsarUPDATE 1755 GMT: An EA correspondent updates us on the Supreme Leader's trip to Qom....

It will begin sometime between Friday and next Tuesday, in part to avoid a clash with President Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon, which is expected on Wednesday.

Khamenei will have some public meetings with people in Qom such as families of martyrs, Basij militia, clerics, and the Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom. However, his meetings with senior clerics will be private and without press coverage.

UPDATE 1745 GMT: Majid Mohammadi offers his analysis of the Khamenei decision and its effect on Rafanjani in an article for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

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This morning we noted the report of the Islamic Republic News Agency that the Supreme Leader had made a "final and definite" opinion over control of Islamic Azad University, Iran's largest university system. The private system has been overseen by officials linked to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, but earlier this year the Ahmadinejad Government sought to take charge.

Well, we've checked with correspondents, and Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration is a knockout victory for Ahmadinejad. Indeed, the verdict --- that the rights of the IAU are determined by the Supreme Leader and that it falls under the Government's jurisdiction --- may point to a even bigger political decision by Ayatollah Khamenei.

Between now and a week on Tuesday, the Supreme Leader will journey to Qom, the key religious centre of Iran, for a stay of several days. Formally, he will commemorate the birthday of Reza, Shi'a's 8th Imam, but the politics go far beyond that ceremony.

Khamenei's trip is no less than an appeal to the maraji, the highest clerics of Iran, to support him amidst the political, economic, and international challenges that Tehran is facing. The Supreme Leader will not frame this as a Back Me or Sack Me appeal: instead, he will say that the maraji should support the Islamic Revolution and the Government as they face foreign threats. Their endorsement of velayat-e-faqih, the system headed by Khamenei, would then be taken as given.

That seems a straightforward objective. So straightforward that it causes me to raise an eyebrow over the timing of the Islamic Azad University announcement.

Only last week, Rafsanjani was saying in public that all the legal and political arguments over control on the university were on his side, apparently confident that he would have the Supreme Leader's backing.

That assurance has now evaporated. And if that is gone, how much faith can Rafsanjani have in his recent appeals to Ayatollah Khamenei over the almost two dozen cases of abuse of political prisoners that he has put before the Supreme Leader?

Thus, the Qom challenge. Some of the clerics whom Khamenei wishes to meet will be far from averse to Rafsanjani, who after all has attained the rank of Ayatollah; some of those clerics have been Rafsanjani's political and religious allies. The Supreme Leader, with his decision today, has just added to his message to those clerics: "support" means not only the endorsement of velayat-e-faqih but a political endorsement of Khamenei that puts Rafsanjani in his place.

The irony is striking and signficant: Ayatollah Khamenei, in the name of the "unity" behind velayat-e-faqih that he seeks, is setting clear limits on the influence of Hashemi Rafsanjani and the "unity" --- based more on a collective leadership --- that he has been pursuing.

In the US, there is an established expression for sacrificing someone to secure a political position. You "throw him/her under the bus".

I am not sure what the Persian translation is, but I think we may now have the dictionary illustration for it.

More on the Khamenei visit to Qom later in the week....