Iran Snapshot: The Regime Show Moves to Qom

There is still post-game cheerleading for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon. Press TV headlines the joint statement of the Shi'a parties Hezbollah and Amal expressing gratitude to the President for his assurances of support for the Lebanese people and adds the praise of Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati at Tehran Prayers (while ignoring Jannati's sharp criticism of Ahmadinejad over impending subsidy cuts). IRNA hands over a chunk of space to Ahmadinejad's media spokesman to declare, "A New Chapter in Relations Between Iran and Lebanon Has Been Opened".

But make no mistake: the lights are going out on this show. And it is only the prelude to a much bigger, much more important one.

On Friday, Jannati publicly confirmed what we already knew: on Tuesday, the birthday of Reza, Shi'a's 8th Imam, the Supreme Leader will travel to Qom, make public speeches, and --- more importantly --- hold private discussions with senior clerics.

This is Ayatollah Khamenei's own mission to re-affirm legitimacy. Amidst the political tension, the escalating economic problems, and the concerns about abuses that just won't go away, the Supreme Leader will be on an open PR quest for the supremacy of the Islamic Republic (and thus of his position) and a behind-doors encounter with at least some of Iran's top religious figures. (Some but others may stay away.)

And it is this, even as both supporters and enemies elevate Ahmadinejad's trip, that puts the last 72 hours in perspective. The President remains President in large part because the Supreme Leader, at critical points, has not withdrawn his backing. 

But Khamenei has paid a price for that backing. The appeals to him by conservative figures to him in recent weeks --- by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, by Secretary of the Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaie, and possibly by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- for "unity" have highlighted that Khamenei has lost the security and certainty of the Iranian system.

So the Supreme Leader needs to put Qom, where some clerics have been openly critical of the Government and more have been privately worried, in order: Back Me. All those Iranian flags that waved this weekin Beirut will be useless confetti if he does not get the right answer.

We'll have a major analysis, based on sources from Iran, before Khamenei arrives in Iran's religious centre on Tuesday.