The Latest from Iran (2 October): Adding Up the Punishments

1707 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Claimed video of the closing of the gold market today in Ahvaz in southern Iran:

1655 GMT: Syria in Tehran. So how did President Ahmadinejad's showpiece visit from Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad go? 

Well, Mahmoud gave Bashar a nice ribbon:

Apart from that, it was standard denunciation of the bad guys in West Jerusalem:

"No country in the region would be safe from the atrocities of the Zionist regime [of Israel] in the absence of the Syrian government and nation's altruism," said Ahmadinejad on Saturday in a ceremony to award his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad with Iran's highest national medal. 

He added that the Syrian government and nation have for years stood against the extremism and aggression of Israel and arrogant powers. 

He expressed Iran's support for all "justice-seeking" nations in the world, saying, "Iran stands by Syria, Lebanon and Palestine and endorses the oppressed people of the region and across the globe." 

Assad, for his part, declared, "We have stood beside Iran in a brotherly way from the very beginning of the Revolution." His nice ribbon and medal were in appreciation of "the continuing and eternal stance of Syria to be on the side of Iran ... The two countries' close and continuing contacts are in the interest of the region."

1630 GMT: Threat of Day. The deputy chairman of Parliament's National Security Commission has declared that Iran can sue Russia over the suspended delivery of S-300 missiles.

Hossein Ibrahimi said, "Russia's refusal to deliver the S-300 [systems] can be pursued by Tehran, because our rights have been violated."

Yeah, right.

1610 GMT: Rumour of Day --- Part 3. Gooya claims, from a source at the Canadian Embassy in Syria, that Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has applied for immigration to Canada.

1600 GMT: Currency Watch --- Lines and Silver Linings. Tabnak reports that domestic currency markets are "virtually closed", with long lines of people outside banks to buy dollars.

Still, amidst the looming currency problem, there's a short-term benefit for the Government: Aftab reports it has made $8 billion from the shift in the exchange rates and the sale of its dollars.

(Short-term, because the Government's attempts to stem the falling value of the Iranian value means it is reducing its reserve of foreign currency.)

1320 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh reports that the strike of gold vendors in Tehran Bazaar continued today and adds that many high-end watch sellers joined the stoppage.

1310 GMT: Labour Front. Four activists at Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Factory have been fired.

1305 GMT: Currency Watch. Trying to stabilise the Iranian toman, Iran's Central Bank is releasing US currency into the economy at the rate of 1070 tomans to $1. 

In the last month, the toman has fallen vs. the dollar from around 1000:1 to as high as 1220:1. 

It is not clear if the move will be effective, however. The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that few are willing to sell dollars in Iran's currency markets.

1300 GMT: Rumour of Day --- Part 2. Peyke Iran claims President Ahmadinejad cancelled a planned appearance at Tehran University today.

1255 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Turkish Government has said that a decision by the country's biggest oil company to suspend its contracts with Iran was made by Turkish Petroleum Refineries (TURPAS) at the request of the US, not as government compliance to unilateral sanctions.

TURPAS was included in a US State Department list of companies which had announced they were discontinuing their activities in Iran's energy sector, but the Turkish Government had publicly distanced itself from international sanctions.

Whatever --- whether TURPAS pulled out because of a behind-the-scenes Government decision or of its own volition, the effect is the same.

1248 GMT: Claim of Day. Green Voice of Freedom asserts that President Ahmadinejad, defending the release of US detainee Sarah Shourd despite opposition from others in the Iranian establishment, made a striking political claim: if the Supreme Leader had not supported him, he would have gotten 30 million votes in the 2009 election.

Ahmadinejad "officially" received about 24 million votes in the contest.

1245 GMT: Rumour of Day. Green Voice of Freedom claims that the Supreme Leader cancelled a trip to Qom when senior clerics responded to the idea less than enthusiastically.

1220 GMT: Iran Arrests Stuxnet Spies? The Stuxnet computer worm may or may not have designed with Iran's nuclear facilities as the target, but Tehran seems happy to support the claim.

Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi said today that "a number of nuclear spies have been arrested". 

Moslehi said, referring to  the "cyber-warfare campaign by the enemies against the country", that the Ministry of Intelligence has "absolute control over the virtual networks and will foil all acts of sabotage".

0950 GMT: Film Corner. Iranian authorities have lifted a ban on the completion of prominent director Asghar Farhadi's latest film after he apologised to the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

Farhadi was blocked from filming "Nader Divorces Simi" in late September when he called for Iranian directors and actors to be allowed to return to Iran and pursue their careers.

0945 GMT: Boosting Ahmadinejad? Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has arrived in Tehran for meetings with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other officials.

0940 GMT: Stopping the Torture Revelations. Thomas Erdbrink, paralleling updates we have posted this week, writes in The Washington Post about the anger of Iran "hard-liners" over the publication of political prisoners' letters:

In a series of taboo-breaking letters written from prison, activists, politicians and journalists - most of them arrested in the aftermath of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed June 2009 election victory - have been telling tales of torture, criticizing Iranian leaders and encouraging others to continue their protests.

Government officials and their supporters in the media say the criticisms threaten national security and are demanding that judiciary officials put a stop to them.

Erdbrink also astutely picks up on the wider politics of this incident, as the battle escalates between supporters of President Ahmadinejad and the judiciary, headed by Sadegh Larijani:

The [Islamic Republic News Agency], headed by a close Ahmadinejad ally, even accused the judiciary of secretly supporting some of the political prisoners. "These professional criminals . . . are in practice continuing their riots," IRNA wrote. There have been several recent high-profile conflicts between the government and the judiciary, including disagreement over the release last month of Sarah Shourd, an American held with two others since July 2009, and the sentencing of a woman convicted of adultery.

0930 GMT: Put Up or Shut Up. In our snap analysis and our opening update this morning (0550 GMT), I linked the general assessment of increased repression to the concerns of the regime about political and economic stability. I noted a letter by conservative Ali Motahari to the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, calling for the prosecution of the leaders of sedition.

I was wrong --- very wrong --- in that reading of Motahari. A reader offers the shrewd interpretation:

Motahari explicitly says that either they [the opposition figures] should be prosecuted or have full civil liberties (something Mousavi and Karroubi clearly lack right now).

In other words, it could easily be read as a call to end the persecution of the two and to determine once and for all whether they are worthy of prosecution or not. In the case of them not being prosecuted, they must be allowed to have freedom of movement. Also, it could be seen as a call to hold the trials that have been illegally delayed for so long for those in prison right now.

This interpretation of Motahari's statements is more in line with the stance he took after the election wherein he more or less defended Mousavi and Karroubi.

0610 GMT: Shutting Up the Lawyers. In a letter to Tehran's Prosecutor General, the husband of detained lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh claims she was imprisoned after she refused to withdraw from a case involving one of her colleagues.

Sotoudeh, a prominent human rights attorney, represents Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, head of the Center of Defenders of Human Rights.

Sotoudeh's husband, Reza Khandan, wrote, "My wife, Ms. Nasrin Sotoudeh Langeroudi, a lawyer, received a threatening telephone call from a security organization regarding withdrawal from representing one of her colleagues, who is coincidentally also a lawyer. She was subsequently summoned by Evin Prison Court on 7 September 2010 and arrested."

Khandan claims Sotoudeh has been denied visits by her family, including her two young children, since 15 September. She was also refused prison leave for the funeral of her father. 

0550 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at yesterday's news of the arrest of the two leaders of the Freedom Movement of Iran and the question, "What Is the Next Step Against the Reformists?"

On a related note, Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, from March-September 2010, the Iranian judiciary handed out 9500 years of imprisonment and more than 1000 lashes to 290 political and civil activists, as well as issuing or confirming eight death sentences. 

So it is intriguing to learn that the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is troubled by the judicial process. Not, I hasten to add, by the punishment of dissidents but by the confrontation of "economic, political, and social corruption...the most important duty of the Judiciary under his leadership".

Larijani called on officials --- which officials? --- " to exercise restraint while the Judiciary studying those cases". He continued, "Some officials expect the Judiciary to reveal the names of economically corrupt individuals, but revealing names before verdicts are handed down is not a proper move."

That appears to confirm our analysis this morning that the Iranian establishment is stepping up its repression, even as --- and indeed because --- it is fretting about problems within the system. (Ali Motahari, one of those leading the charge against President Ahmadinejad, has asked Larijani "to prosecute all instrumental figures behind the 2009 sedition".)

[NOTE: While the general assessment of the establishment stands, I was way off the mark in this interpretation of Motahari --- see correction at 0930 GMT.]

So the head of the judiciary's message is for "conservative" critics of the Government who have challenged its political abuses, mismanagement, and, yes, corruption: I understand where you're coming from --- I might be even be with you on this --- but you have to be patient.