Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu Rejects Obama's Plan A --- No Plan B Before Mid-November (Rozen)

Laura Rozen, writing for Politico, brings the latest inside information from Washington on the stalled Israel-Palestine talks:

....Behind the scenes, the Obama administration is still absorbing the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to date rejected a proposed American compromise package that would have offered various security and other assurances to Israel in exchange for a 60-day renewal of a partial West Bank settlement freeze that expired last month. 

The American team is said to be frustrated and upset at Netanyahu’s dismissal to date of the package, which was drafted by the NSC’s Dennis Ross in close consultation with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molho. 

“They’re really upset,” one Washington Middle East hand in close contact with administration officials said Tuesday. “At the end of the day, they made this incredibly good faith effort to keep Bibi at the table.” And Bibi proved as yet unwilling to budge. 

“’We put our asses on the line,’” the sense of dismay among the U.S. Middle East team at Netanyahu's rejection of the U.S. package was described. “’We worked with your defense minister and gave you this amazing deal, all the cover you needed to extend the freeze. And you not only rejected it, but put forward a counterproposal [demanding Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state] pandering to the right and a stalling tactic.’” 

Perhaps as importantly, the Middle East hand said, is the fact that the Obama Middle East team across the board “is internally convinced they did the most they could.” 

U.S. thinking on the Middle East peace stalemate is starting to have echoes of its thinking on efforts to try to engage Iran before turning to the pressure track. “In order to move forward, they had to convince themselves internally and externally that they had tried all options” for the first approach and that it had failed, the expert said. 

No new plan B is likely to emerge before the November mid-terms. One possibility being mulled --- but not decided on –-- is the administration eventually putting forward American ideas for the basis of an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement.

In a meeting last week, high level U.S. State Department and NSC officials were asked what’s to stop Netanyahu saying no to such a plan. The answer the officials gave was there are ways to put things forward that he can’t say no to. 

Some analysts also see a possibility that Netanyahu might be pushed to consider eventually bringing opposition Kadima leader Tzipi Livni into his governing coalition if he wants to move forward on the peace track. Quiet feelers and conversations have been described taking place between emissaries of the two camps.

But both politicians have an interest in not moving prematurely -- if at all -- until there's some more compelling reason and their concerns are satisfied -- Livni that she would have real policymaking influence and would not just be politically compromised should she go into Netanyahu’s government and then find him unwilling to advance on the peace process. Netanyahu that Livni is not just looking to oust or succeed him. 

American negotiators are also dismayed that at some level, they still do not have clarity on what Netanyahu’s positions on the peace process core issues really are. 

Between now and November, the Obama administration will try to avoid open failure, or getting into a fight with Israel, says former peace negotiator Aaron Miller. 

After November, the administration might consider putting “out American ideas, either to close the process down until the two sides are ready to accept them, or one side accepts and the other doesn't, putting pressure on the declining side to come round," Miller said.  

Such U.S. mediation, designed to produce “a horizon” on core issues such as borders, security, Jerusalem and refugees, could either “shut the game down until the locals are ready to play seriously,” Miller said, “or gin it up.” 

If the Palestinians say yes to such a plan and the Israelis say no, this “means pressure on Bibi to give, or to change his coalition,” Miller said. 

“My feeling is that Netanyahu fears by saying yes [to the U.S. compromise package], he will be fracturing his base before a peace deal is imminent and the net effect is that a rival party on the right headed by Israeli Foreign Minister [Avigdor] Lieberman will siphon off voters at his expense,” said the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s David Makovsky Friday.

“The current situation raises the question whether Netanyahu needs to broaden his coalition and invite Kadima to join the existing framework,” Makovsky said. “Kadima is a rival that could be Netanyahu's partner at a time that the prime minister's partner Lieberman is proving to be his rival.”